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[QUOTE="Daniel LQDFX, post: 230351, member: 107699"] [HEADING=2][Center][Heading=1][B]Daily News Update[/B][/Heading][/Center][/HEADING] [HEADING=2] [Right]6 March 2024[/Right][/HEADING] [Right]Wednesday[/Right] [Heading=2]On Wednesday, a series of significant economic announcements are scheduled from Australia, the United States, and Canada. Australia will disclose its quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, while the United States is set to release its ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data, alongside testimonies from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the publication of the JOLTS Job Openings report. In Canada, the Bank of Canada will announce its decision on the Overnight Rate, followed by a press conference.[/Heading] [B][U][Center]AUD - GDP q/q[/Center][/U][/B] Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on a quarterly basis represents the inflation-adjusted change in the value of all goods and services produced by the economy. This data is released quarterly, approximately 65 days following the end of each quarter. It is considered the most comprehensive measure of economic activity and serves as the primary indicator of the economy's overall health. In the third quarter of 2023, Australia witnessed a modest economic expansion of 0.2% quarter-over-quarter, falling short of market expectations and marking a slowdown from the 0.4% growth seen in the second quarter. This period recorded the most subdued growth rate since the third quarter of the previous year, influenced by a deceleration in fixed investment growth to 1.1% from 2.9%, stagnant household consumption, and a detrimental impact from net trade. Notably, the growth in fixed investments was predominantly propelled by robust public sector spending, particularly in health, transportation, communication, and utilities, elevating public investment to 8.9% from 8.2%. Despite these public investment gains, household consumption failed to register growth, attributed in part to government initiatives such as benefits and rebates, which led to reduced spending on essential services like electricity. The household savings ratio also witnessed a significant decline, reaching a low of 1.1% not seen since the fourth quarter of 2007, from a revised 2.8%. Additionally, the trade sector faced challenges, with exports decreasing by 0.7%—the first decline since March 2022—and imports climbing by 2.1%. Government spending saw an acceleration, rising to 1.1% from 0.6% in the previous quarter. Over the entire year, Australia's economy grew by 2.1%, surpassing the expected 1.8% and following a revised 2.0% growth in the second quarter. [B]TL;DR[/B] [ATTACH type="full"]27616[/ATTACH] The forecast for [B]Australian GDP q/q[/B] basis remains stable, with no changes anticipated from the previous outcome of [B]0.2%[/B]. The forthcoming release of the [B]GDP q/q[/B] figures is scheduled for [B]Wednesday at 12:30 AM GMT[/B]. [B][U][Center]USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change[/Center][/U][/B] The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is a key economic indicator that estimates the monthly change in employment figures, excluding the agricultural sector and government employees. This report is released monthly, typically on the first Wednesday following the month's end. Offering a preliminary glimpse into employment trends, the ADP's data is released approximately two days before the official government employment statistics, which it aims to parallel. Notably, the methodology for calculating this series has been adjusted in February 2007, December 2008, and November 2012 to enhance its alignment with the government's figures. The significance of this data for traders and economists lies in its ability to serve as a leading indicator of consumer spending, which constitutes a substantial portion of overall economic activity. By analyzing payroll information from over 25 million workers, ADP provides valuable insights into employment growth, thereby informing market expectations and economic forecasts. In January 2024, job growth in the U.S. private sector fell short of expectations, with the economy adding just 107,000 jobs, a drop from the revised December count of 158,000 and below the anticipated 148,000. The service sector was the primary contributor, adding 77,000 positions, while the goods-producing sector accounted for 30,000 new roles. The leisure and hospitality sector stood out by generating 28,000 of these positions. Wage growth also showed signs of slowing, with existing employees seeing a 5.2% increase, a slight decrease from 5.4% in December, and job switchers receiving a 7.2% hike, marking the smallest gain since May 2021. ADP's Chief Economist, Nela Richardson, pointed out that despite the deceleration in hiring and wage growth, signs of easing inflation are fostering a more optimistic economic outlook, hinting at a potential 'soft landing' for both the U.S. and the broader global economy. [B]TL;DR[/B] [LIST] [*]U.S. private sector added 107,000 jobs in January 2024, below the expected 148,000 and a decrease from December's revised 158,000. [*]Service sector contributed 77,000 jobs, with 30,000 coming from the goods-producing sector; leisure and hospitality added 28,000 jobs. [*]Wage growth for existing employees slowed to 5.2% from December's 5.4%; job switchers saw a 7.2% increase, the smallest since May 2021. [*]ADP's Chief Economist noted slowing hiring and wage growth, but with easing inflation, there's optimism for a 'soft landing' for the economy. The estimated [B]ADP Employment Change[/B] shows a rise to [B]145,000[/B], up from the previous [B]107,000[/B]. The upcoming release of the [B]ADP Non-Farm Employment Change[/B] report is set for [B]Wednesday at 1:15 PM GMT[/B]. [/LIST] [B][U][Center]CAD - Overnight Rate[/Center][/U][/B] The Overnight Rate, which represents the interest rate at which major financial institutions borrow and lend one another funds on an overnight basis, is reviewed and adjusted eight times annually. Market anticipations often factor in the rate decision, rendering it less influential than the Bank of Canada (BOC) Rate Statement which provides insights into future monetary policy directions. In currency valuation, short-term interest rates hold supreme importance, with traders analyzing various economic indicators primarily to forecast future rate adjustments. The setting of the rate is determined through consensus among the members of the BOC Governing Council. In January 2024, the Bank of Canada maintained its overnight rate target at 5% for the fourth time, aligning with expectations and marking a 22-year peak in benchmark borrowing rates. The Council voiced ongoing concerns about inflation, particularly after a surprise increase in core inflation metrics in December, advocating for sustained restrictive monetary policy. The central bank forecasts that headline inflation will hover around 3% in the first half of the year, with a decrease to the 2% target anticipated in 2025, despite economic deceleration and reduced consumer spending, investment, and labor market robustness due to high interest rates. [B]TL;DR[/B] [ATTACH type="full"]27617[/ATTACH] The forecast for the [B]BOC Overnight Rate[/B] remains constant at [B]5.00%[/B], maintaining parity with the previous determination. The forthcoming release of the [B]BOC Overnight Rate[/B] is set for [B]Wednesday at 2:45 PM GMT[/B]. [B][U][Center]CAD - BOC Press Conference[/Center][/U][/B] The Governor and Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada (BOC) address the public and media in a press conference held eight times annually. This event comprises two segments: an initial reading of a prepared statement followed by a Q&A session with the press, where spontaneous responses often lead to significant market fluctuations. The entire conference is broadcasted live on the BOC's official website. This conference stands as a key channel through which the BOC communicates with investors about its monetary policy decisions. It delves into the rationale behind the latest interest rate adjustments, focusing on the economic landscape and inflation trends, and offers insights into potential future policy directions. During a press conference, Tiff Macklem, alongside Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers, reviewed the Bank of Canada's decision to hold the policy interest rate steady at 5% and persist with quantitative tightening, underscoring the effectiveness of current monetary policies in mitigating inflation, despite its continued above-target levels due to persistent pressures. The discourse has shifted towards determining the duration for maintaining the current interest rate amidst a global economic slowdown and resilient US economy. Despite a stalling Canadian economy and the strain of higher costs on consumers, inflation is gradually decreasing, helped by rebalancing efforts, lower energy prices, and smoother global supply chains. However, certain sectors like housing and food continue to experience high inflation rates. The Bank anticipates a slow, uneven return to the 2% inflation target, with economic growth expected to modestly pick up in the latter half of 2024. Future policy discussions are likely to focus on the length of time the current interest rate should be upheld, with the Governing Council closely monitoring inflationary pressures and the economic balance to avoid over-tightening while aiming to alleviate persistent inflation. [B]TL;DR[/B] [LIST] [*]Bank of Canada keeps interest rate at 5% and continues quantitative tightening, aiming to curb inflation still above target due to ongoing pressures. [*]Discussion shifts to how long to maintain current rate amidst global slowdown and stable US economy. [*]Inflation is gradually easing, influenced by rebalancing, lower energy costs, and smoother supply chains, despite challenges in the Canadian economy and high costs for consumers. [*]Persistent high inflation in housing and food, with a slow return to 2% target expected. [*]Economic growth to modestly improve in late 2024, with future policy focus on duration of current rate, monitoring economic balance and inflationary pressures to avoid over-tightening. The upcoming [B]BOC Press Conference[/B] is scheduled for [B]Wednesday at 3:30 PM GMT[/B]. [/LIST] [B][U][Center]USD - Fed Chair Powell Testifies[/Center][/U][/B] The Federal Reserve Chair, serving from February 2018 to February 2026 and as a Governor from May 2012 to January 2028, is scheduled to present the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee in Washington DC. This significant event typically unfolds in two segments: an initial reading of a prepared statement, the text of which is made available on the Federal Reserve's website, followed by a question and answer session with the committee. Given the unpredictability of the questions, this part of the testimony can lead to unanticipated revelations, causing considerable fluctuations in the market. The Chair's influence on short-term interest rates positions him as a pivotal figure in determining the nation's currency value. Consequently, traders pay meticulous attention to his public appearances, seeking insights into future monetary policies. [B]TL;DR[/B] [LIST] [*]Federal Reserve Chair, in office from Feb 2018 to Feb 2026 and Governor until Jan 2028, to present the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report in Washington DC. [*]Presentation includes a prepared statement (available on the Fed's website) followed by a Q&A session with the House Financial Services Committee. [*]Q&A session's unpredictability may cause significant market fluctuations. [*]Chair's crucial role in setting short-term interest rates impacts the nation's currency value, making his public appearances highly anticipated by traders for future policy insights. [/LIST] The scheduled release of the event is set for [B]Wednesday at 3:00 PM GMT[/B]. [B][U][Center]USD - JOLTS Job Openings[/Center][/U][/B] The reported number of job openings, excluding those in the farming industry, is released monthly, approximately 35 days following the conclusion of the reported month. Despite the delayed release, this data can significantly influence market trends as job openings serve as a leading indicator of overall employment levels. In December 2023, the number of job openings experienced a significant increase of 101,000 from the previous month, reaching 9.026 million, which marked the highest level in three months and surpassed the market expectations of 8.75 million. Throughout the month, there was a notable rise in job openings within the professional and business services sector, amounting to an additional 239,000 positions, whereas the wholesale trade sector witnessed a decline of 83,000 openings. From a regional perspective, job openings saw an increase in the South by 115,000 and in the Northeast by 12,000, while there was a decrease in the Midwest by 22,000 and in the West by 4,000. [B]TL;DR[/B] [ATTACH type="full"]27618[/ATTACH] The forecast for [B]JOLTS Job Openings[/B] is projected at [B]8.907 million[/B], a slight decrease from the previous figure of [B]9.026 million[/B]. The upcoming release of the [B]JOLTS Job Openings[/B] report is scheduled for [B]Wednesday at 3:00 PM GMT[/B]. [B][U][Center]GBP - Annual Budget Release [/Center][/U][/B] This document presents the government's annual budget, detailing anticipated expenditures, revenues, borrowing figures, financial goals, and investment plans. It's crucial for traders and economists because government spending and borrowing significantly influence the economy. Higher spending can boost employment and contracts for businesses, whereas borrowing levels can affect the country's credit rating and provide insights into its fiscal health, impacting investor confidence and economic stability. Ahead of the anticipated Spring Budget on Wednesday, UK markets are on edge following Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's weekend remarks, hinting at a fiscally responsible approach with potential small tax cuts. The Pound has seen a slight uptick against the Euro and USD, reflecting market anticipation of a budget that balances tax relief with fiscal prudence to avoid past gilts turmoil. With limited room for maneuver due to new government debt rules and cautious spending, this week's budget is expected to have a modest market impact. Meanwhile, global markets are also gearing up for significant events, including Fed Chair Powell's congressional testimony and the ECB rate meeting, with the week concluding on the critical US Jobs Report, all of which could influence market dynamics and currency valuations. [B]TL;DR[/B] [LIST] [*]UK markets tense before Spring Budget, reacting to Chancellor Hunt's hints at a fiscally responsible approach with possible minor tax cuts. [*]Pound rises slightly against Euro and USD, with markets expecting a balanced budget to prevent gilts turmoil. [*]Budget impact expected to be modest due to new government debt rules and cautious spending. [*]Global markets await key events: Fed Chair Powell's testimony, ECB rate meeting, and US Jobs Report, all potentially affecting market dynamics and currency values. [/LIST] This will take place on [B]Wednesday at 12:30 PM GMT[/B]. [HR][/HR] [I]Disclaimer: The market news provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered trading advice.[/I] [/QUOTE]
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