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[QUOTE="Daniel LQDFX, post: 230548, member: 107699"] [HEADING=2][Center][Heading=1][B]Daily News Update[/B][/Heading][/Center][/HEADING] [HEADING=2] [Right]12 March 2024[/Right][/HEADING] [Right]Tuesday[/Right] [Heading=2]On Tuesday, two major economic announcements are set to be made by Great Britain and the United States, events that could potentially have significant impacts on the global financial markets. Firstly, Great Britain is scheduled to release its latest Claimant Count Change figures, a key indicator of employment trends within the country. Following closely on the same day, the United States will reveal its Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, providing crucial insights into inflationary trends within the world's largest economy. These back-to-back announcements are eagerly anticipated by investors and policymakers alike, as they could provide valuable signals about the economic health and future monetary policy directions in both nations.[/Heading] [B][U][Center]GBP- Claimant Count Change[/Center][/U][/B] The Claimant Count, updated on a monthly basis approximately 16 days after the conclusion of each month, is traditionally viewed as a lagging indicator. Nonetheless, it carries substantial significance as it portrays the count of individuals currently without employment. This metric plays a vital role in signaling the overall economic health, given the robust connection between consumer spending and labor market dynamics. Furthermore, unemployment continues to be a critical factor in influencing the decision-making of authorities responsible for shaping the nation's monetary policies. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that the UK's unemployment rate had dropped to 3.8% in the quarter ending in December, down from 4.2% in the previous month, surpassing market predictions which had anticipated a rate of 4.0%. Further details from the report indicated that the number of jobless claims had risen by 14.1K in January, an uptick from December's 5.5K. Employment figures for December also showed a slight adjustment, with a reported increase of 72K, closely following November's 73K rise. Wage growth data provided a positive outlook, with average earnings, excluding bonuses, having climbed by 6.2% year-on-year in December, a slight dip from November's 6.7% but still ahead of the anticipated 6.0% growth. Including bonuses, wage inflation saw a 5.8% rise during the same period, maintaining a steady pace against November's figures and exceeding the expected 5.6% increase. This data underscored the ongoing adjustments in the UK labor market, reflecting both employment trends and wage movements. [B]TL;DR[/B] The[ATTACH type="full"]27712[/ATTACH] latest economic forecasts reveal an anticipated decrease in the [B]Claimant Count Change[/B], with predictions showing a reduction of [B]2,000[/B] compared to the previous figure, which stood at [B]14,100[/B]. The upcoming [B]Claimant Count Change[/B] is scheduled for release on [B]Tuesday at 7:00 AM GMT[/B]. [B][U][Center]USD – Core CPI m/m[/Center][/U][/B] "CPI Ex Food and Energy," also known as "Underlying CPI," represents a modified consumer price index that excludes the volatile components of food and energy. This adjusted index offers a more stable and focused measure of inflation, providing a clearer picture of underlying price trends In a significant development for the US economy, core consumer prices, which strip out the volatile food and energy components, experienced a notable rise in January 2024. The increase of 0.4% month-over-month not only accelerated from the previous 0.3% uptick but also exceeded the anticipated 0.3% rise, marking the most substantial surge in core inflation since April 2023. This trend poses a challenge to the gradual disinflationary path the US economy has been on, lending credence to the more stringent policy advocates within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The inflationary pressure was notably driven by a 0.6% increase in shelter costs, a rise from the 0.4% observed in December 2023, coupled with a sharp 1% rise in transportation services costs, a significant jump from the prior 0.1%. Consequently, the CPI for services, excluding energy, advanced to 0.7%, up from 0.4%. In contrast, the goods sector witnessed a slowdown in inflation, highlighted by a 3.4% decrease in the CPI for used cars and trucks after a previous 0.6% increase, along with declines in the prices of apparel and medical care commodities. [B]TL;DR[/B] [ATTACH type="full"]27713[/ATTACH] The [B]Core CPI m/m[/B] forecast indicates a slight decrease to [B]0.3%[/B], down from the previous reading of [B]0.4%[/B]. [B][U][Center]USD - CPI m/m[/Center][/U][/B] Consumer prices play a significant role in driving overall inflation. The connection between inflation and currency valuation is crucial because when prices rise, central banks often respond by increasing interest rates to fulfill their mandate of controlling inflation. This adjustment involves regularly sampling and comparing the average prices of various goods and services to previous periods. In January 2024, the US experienced a significant inflationary push, with consumer prices jumping by 0.3%, the most substantial monthly increase observed in the past four months. This escalation, up from December's 0.2% rise, surpassed analysts' expectations, which had pegged the increase at 0.2%. A major driving force behind this inflationary pressure was the shelter index, which soared by 0.6% during the month, contributing to over two-thirds of the total rise across all categories. Furthermore, the food sector also reflected upward price movements, with a 0.4% increase in the food index. This was evenly distributed between grocery shopping and dining out, with the indices for food at home and food away from home climbing by 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively. On the other hand, the energy sector provided some relief, with the energy index dipping by 0.9%, largely influenced by a decrease in the gasoline index, painting a complex picture of the current inflation dynamics. [B]TL;DR[/B] [LIST] [*]US consumer prices rose by 0.3% in January 2024, exceeding expectations and marking the largest increase in four months. [*]Shelter costs surged by 0.6%, driving over two-thirds of the overall inflation. [*]Food prices increased by 0.4%, with both grocery and dining out costs rising similarly. [*]The energy index fell by 0.9%, providing some counterbalance to inflation, primarily due to lower gasoline prices. [/LIST] The latest forecast suggests a modest increase in the [B]CPI m/m[/B] rising to [B]0.4%[/B] from the previous figure of [B]0.3%[/B]. [B][U][Center]USD – CPI y/y[/Center][/U][/B] Consumer price fluctuations largely contribute to overall inflation. The connection between inflation and currency valuation is significant because when prices rise, central banks typically respond by raising interest rates to uphold their commitment to containing inflation. This process involves regularly sampling and comparing the average prices of diverse goods and services to those in previous assessments. In January, consumer prices experienced a 3.1% uptick, challenging expectations for a more pronounced slowdown. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, disclosed on a Tuesday morning, indicated that US consumer prices in January ascended beyond forecasts. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) registered a 0.3% increase from the preceding month and a 3.1% rise from the same month in the previous year, slightly surpassing the 0.2% month-over-month increment recorded in December. Nonetheless, this marked a deceleration from the 3.4% annual growth observed in December. [B]TL;DR[/B] [ATTACH type="full"]27714[/ATTACH] The latest forecast suggests stability in the economic indicator, maintaining the previous figure at [B]3.1%[/B]. The forthcoming release of the [B]CPI y/y[/B], [B]CPI m/m[/B], and [B]Core CPI m/m[/B] data is scheduled for [B]Tuesday at 12:30 PM GMT[/B], providing vital insights into inflationary trends. [HR][/HR] [I]Disclaimer: The market news provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered trading advice.[/I] [/QUOTE]
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