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[QUOTE="Daniel LQDFX, post: 231000, member: 107699"] [HEADING=2][Center][Heading=1][B]Daily News Update[/B][/Heading][/Center][/HEADING] [HEADING=2] [Right]26 March 2024[/Right][/HEADING] [Right]Tuesday[/Right] [Heading=2]On Tuesday, Germany and the United States are set to publish a series of important economic updates. Germany will announce its GfK Consumer Confidence, while the US will release its Core Durable Goods Orders month-over-month, Durable Goods Orders month-over-month, and S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI year-over-year. The day will also feature the much-awaited CB Consumer Confidence report from the US, wrapping up with the Richmond Manufacturing Index.[/Heading] [B][U][Center]EUR - Gfk Consumer Confidence[/Center][/U][/B] The German GfK Consumer Climate Index, a monthly composite measure released towards the end of each month, assesses consumer sentiment based on surveys of approximately 2,000 individuals. This index evaluates perceptions of past and anticipated economic conditions, personal financial circumstances, and the climate for significant purchases. Values above 0 denote consumer optimism, while those below signify pessimism. Traders closely monitor this index as it serves as a leading indicator of consumer spending, which plays a pivotal role in the broader economic activity. In February, Germany's consumer sentiment saw a marginal recovery after a notable decline the previous month, as reported by the GfK Consumer Climate powered by NIM study. The slight uptick to -29 points in the forecast for March is primarily due to increased income expectations, despite a continued lack of improvement in buying willingness and economic outlook. The survey highlights a significant rise in the propensity to save, reaching levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis, indicating ongoing consumer caution amidst rising prices and dim economic forecasts. With income optimism bolstered by wage and pension increases against a backdrop of falling inflation rates, the stagnation in purchasing willingness underscores a pervasive uncertainty among consumers, dampening the prospects for a swift rebound in consumer spending. [B]TL;DR[/B] [ATTACH type="full"]27851[/ATTACH] The [B]Gfk Consumer Confidence[/B] is projected to improve slightly to [B]-27.8[/B] from the previous figure of [B]-29[/B]. The upcoming release of the [B]GfK Consumer Confidence[/B] report is scheduled for [B]Tuesday[/B] at [B]7:00 AM GMT[/B]. [B][U][Center]USD - Core Durable Goods Orders m/m[/Center][/U][/B] The Core Durable Goods Orders report, published monthly approximately 26 days following the month's end, reflects the change in the total value of new orders for long-lasting manufactured goods, excluding transportation-related items. This data, subject to revisions in the subsequent Factory Orders report about a week later, offers a more reliable insight into purchasing trends by excluding the often volatile aircraft orders. Traders value this report as a leading indicator of manufacturing activity, with rising orders suggesting an uptick in production to meet the demand. In January, Core Durable Goods Orders in the US, excluding transportation items, had experienced a modest decline of 0.3%, as disclosed by the Census Bureau on Tuesday. This minor drop occurred against the backdrop of a more significant decrease in overall Durable Goods Orders, which fell by 6.1% to $276.7 billion, exceeding the expected 4.5% contraction. The report also highlighted a more pronounced decrease in orders excluding defense, which plummeted by 7.3%. Despite the downturn in broader durable goods orders, the relatively stable core figures indicated a nuanced economic situation. Following the release of this mixed data, the US Dollar Index remained subdued, staying below the 104.00 mark. [B]TL;DR[/B] [ATTACH type="full"]27852[/ATTACH] The [B]Core Durable Goods Orders[/B] forecast suggests a modest increase of [B]0.3%[/B], contrasting with the previous decline of [B]-0.3%[/B]. The upcoming release of the [B]Core Durable Goods Orders m/m[/B] is scheduled for [B]Tuesday[/B] at [B]12:30 PM GMT[/B]. [B][U][Center]USD - Durable Goods Orders m/m[/Center][/U][/B] The Durable Goods Orders report, issued monthly approximately 26 days after the close of each month, tracks the variation in the total value of new orders for durable goods placed with manufacturers. Durable goods are categorized as hard products expected to last more than three years, including automobiles, computers, appliances, and airplanes. This initial data is typically revised in the subsequent Factory Orders report, released roughly a week later. Traders pay close attention to this report as it serves as a leading production indicator, where an increase in orders suggests a forthcoming rise in manufacturing activity to fulfill these orders. In the first month of 2024, the US experienced a notable 6.1% decrease in orders for manufactured durable goods on a month-over-month basis, significantly exceeding the anticipated 4.9% downturn and coming off a 0.3% drop in December. This represented the most pronounced decline in such orders since April 2020, primarily due to a sharp decrease in transportation equipment demand, which fell by 16.2% owing to a stark 58.9% reduction in nondefense aircraft and parts and a marginal 0.4% decline in motor vehicles and parts. Furthermore, there were decreases in orders for fabricated metal products (0.9%), primary metals (1.7%), and capital goods (15%). Excluding transportation, there was a minor decrease of 0.3% in new orders, and excluding defense, orders plummeted by 7.3%. Nonetheless, there was a small uptick of 0.1% in orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a critical measure of business investment, which contrasted with a 0.6% fall in December, presenting a nuanced view of business investment trends. [B]TL;DR[/B] [ATTACH type="full"]27853[/ATTACH] -6.2The projected forecast for [B]Durable Goods Orders m/m[/B] suggests a [B]1%[/B] increase compared to the previous [B]-6.1%[/B]. The next [B]Durable Goods Orders m/m[/B] release is set for [B]Tuesday[/B] at [B]12:30 PM GMT[/B]. [B][U][Center]USD - S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y[/Center][/U][/B] The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices report, disseminated monthly approximately 60 days following the month's conclusion, evaluates the variation in the selling prices of single-family homes across 20 metropolitan areas. Notably, this report is among the few that are not seasonally adjusted, serving as the principal metric for this indicator. Traders regard this data as a vital leading indicator of the housing industry's vitality, with escalating house prices enticing investors and stimulating sectoral activity. In December 2023, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index revealed a 5.5% annual gain, marking an increase from the previous month's 5.0%. Both the 10-City and 20-City Composites also saw rises, with increases of 7.0% and 6.1% year-over-year, respectively. Among the 20 cities, San Diego led with an 8.8% gain, followed by Los Angeles and Detroit at 8.3% each. However, Portland exhibited the smallest year-over-year growth at 0.3%. On a monthly basis, the U.S. National Index experienced a 0.4% decrease, while both the 20-City and 10-City Composites saw decreases of 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively. After seasonal adjustment, all indices posted 0.2% increases. Brian D. Luke of S&P Dow Jones Indices noted the housing sector's resilience amidst challenges in the fourth quarter, with record highs sustained for seven consecutive months in 2023. Despite not reaching the double-digit gains of previous years, the housing market showed consistent growth above trend, indicating a potential shift in post-pandemic homeownership dynamics. Increased mortgage rates were cited as a factor influencing declines in home prices in the fourth quarter, with 15 markets experiencing lower values compared to September. [B]TL;DR[/B] [LIST] [*]U.S. National Home Price Index rose 5.5% annually, up from last month's 5.0%. [*]10-City Composite increased by 7.0% and 20-City Composite by 6.1% year-over-year. [*]San Diego led with an 8.8% gain; Los Angeles and Detroit both at 8.3%. [*]Portland had the smallest growth at 0.3% year-over-year. [*]Monthly: National Index down 0.4%, 20-City Composite down 0.3%, 10-City down 0.2%. [*]After adjustment, all indices saw a 0.2% monthly increase. [*]Housing sector resilience noted, with consistent growth above trend. [*]Increased mortgage rates influenced Q4 price declines; 15 markets saw lower values compared to September. [/LIST] The [B]S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y[/B] forecast shows an increase to [B]6.5%[/B], up from the previous [B]6.1%[/B]. The upcoming release of the [B]S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y[/B] is scheduled for [B]Tuesday[/B] at [B]1:00 PM GMT[/B]. [B][U][Center]USD - CB Consumer Confidence[/Center][/U][/B] The CB Consumer Confidence Index, a composite measure derived from surveys of approximately 3,000 households, is released monthly on the last Tuesday of the current month. It assesses households' perceptions of current and future economic conditions, including labor market dynamics, business climates, and the overall economic environment. Traders monitor this index closely, as it acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending, which significantly influences the broader economic landscape. In February, The Conference Board's consumer survey revealed a decline in American consumer confidence to 106.7, down from 110.9 in January, ending a three-month trend of positive sentiment towards the economy. This shift in attitude was attributed to growing concerns about the job market, despite reduced worries over inflation, particularly food and gas prices. The survey highlighted that the drop in confidence was widespread across most income and age groups, with notable exceptions. Furthermore, the economic outlook for the coming months has worsened, with expectations for income and business conditions falling to levels often associated with a looming recession. Inflation expectations also decreased to 5.2%, a significant drop from the mid-2022 peak of 7.9%. Despite this, the US economy continues to show resilience with strong indicators such as a 3.3% annualized growth rate in the last quarter and a robust job market. However, challenges remain, including high interest rates and low housing affordability, contributing to the complex economic landscape. [B]TL;DR[/B] [LIST] [*]Consumer confidence fell to 106.7 in February from 110.9 in January. [*]The decline ends a three-month trend of increasing economic optimism. [*]Concerns about the job market grew, offsetting reduced inflation worries. [*]Confidence dropped across most income and age groups, with few exceptions. [*]Economic outlook for upcoming months has worsened, signaling possible recession. [*]Expectations for income and business conditions declined. [*]Inflation expectations dropped to 5.2% from mid-2022's peak of 7.9%. [*]Despite the dip in confidence, the US economy showed a 3.3% growth rate last quarter and a strong job market. [*]Challenges include high interest rates and low housing affordability. [/LIST] The projected forecast for [B]CB Consumer Confidence[/B] remains unchanged at [B]106.7[/B], matching the previous outcome, signaling no change in consumer’s trust in the market. The upcoming [B]CB Consumer Confidence[/B] is set to take place on [B]Tuesday[/B] at [B]2:00 PM GMT[/B]. The last time, [B]US CB Consumer Confidence[/B] was announced on the 27th of February, 2024. You may find the market reaction chart [B](EURUSD M5)[/B] below: [B][U][Center]USD - Richmond Manufacturing Index[/Center][/U][/B] The Richmond Manufacturing Index, a composite gauge derived from a survey of approximately 55 manufacturers in the Richmond area, is issued monthly on the fourth Tuesday of each month. It evaluates business conditions, including shipments, new orders, and employment, with values above 0 signaling improving conditions and those below 0 indicating deterioration. The index's impact is often subdued due to the availability of earlier regional manufacturing indicators. In February, manufacturing activity in the Fifth District stabilized, as reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index saw a modest recovery, moving up from -15 in January to -5. Despite this improvement, shipments continued to struggle at -15, although new orders and employment showed notable gains, rising to -5 and 7, respectively. Businesses expressed a slight increase in optimism regarding local conditions, with future expectations also ticking upwards. However, issues like declining backlogs persisted, even as some indicators like vendor lead times and capacity utilization showed signs of recovery. Price growth rates for both inputs and outputs moderated, with firms anticipating a continued easing in the coming year. [B]TL;DR[/B] [LIST] [*]Fifth District's manufacturing activity stabilized in February, with the index improving from -15 to -5. [*]Shipments index remained low at -15, while new orders and employment indices improved to -5 and 7, respectively. [*]Slight increase in business optimism about local conditions and future expectations. [*]Issues like declining backlogs persisted, despite some recovery signs in vendor lead times and capacity utilization. [*]Price growth for inputs and outputs moderated, with firms expecting further easing ahead. [/LIST] The [B]Richmond Manufacturing Index[/B] forecast suggests a slight improvement to [B]-4[/B], up from the previous reading of [B]-5[/B]. The next [B]Richmond Manufacturing Index[/B] is set to be released on [B]Tuesday[/B] at [B]2:00 PM GMT[/B]. [HR][/HR] [I]Disclaimer: The market news provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered trading advice.[/I] [/QUOTE]
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