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[QUOTE="Daniel LQDFX, post: 231201, member: 107699"] [HEADING=2][Center][Heading=1][B]Daily News Update[/B][/Heading][/Center][/HEADING] [HEADING=2] [Right]02 April 2024[/Right][/HEADING] [Right]Tuesday[/Right] [Heading=2]On Tuesday, the financial markets will be keenly focused on a series of pivotal economic updates, starting with insights from the Reserve Bank of Australia's Monetary Policy Meeting minutes, revealing the country's monetary policy future. The day will also feature Germany's Preliminary Consumer Price Index data and the UK's Nationwide Housing Prices, which will offer important insights into inflation and housing market trends, respectively. Significantly, Germany's Prelim CPI month-on-month data and the United States' JOLTS Job Openings report are expected to have a substantial impact on market dynamics, reflecting critical inflation and employment trends in two of the world's leading economies. Moreover, the final manufacturing PMIs from Germany, Spain, Italy, and France will also be disclosed, poised to influence market sentiments moderately. These combined disclosures are set to provide a comprehensive view of the global economic environment, guiding investors and policymakers in their decisions.[/Heading] [B][U][Center]AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes[/Center][/U][/B] The Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are an essential document released eight times a year, typically two weeks following the announcement of the Cash Rate. These minutes offer a comprehensive record of the Reserve Bank Board's most recent meeting, shedding light on the in-depth discussions and economic analyses that shaped their decision regarding interest rate settings. Traders and financial analysts closely monitor these minutes for any signs of a hawkish stance—indicating a potential increase in interest rates—which is generally seen as positive for the currency, as it can lead to higher yields for investors. The minutes provide valuable insights into the economic conditions and considerations that influence the central bank's policy decisions, making them a critical resource for understanding future monetary policy directions. In its first meeting of 2024, the Reserve Bank of Australia had decided to keep the cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, following a cumulative increase of 425 basis points over the previous two years aimed at curbing post-pandemic inflationary pressures. Despite a softening in cost pressures, inflation had continued to be pronounced, particularly driven by sustained service sector prices. The central bank had left the door open for potential future rate hikes, indicating such decisions would be guided by incoming data and risk evaluations. It had reiterated its commitment to guiding inflation back within the 2-3% target range by 2025, with particular emphasis on achieving the midpoint by 2026. Additionally, the bank had confirmed its ongoing commitment to closely watch over global economic trends, domestic demand, inflation trajectories, and labor market conditions, all the while maintaining the Exchange Settlement balances rate at 4.25%. [B]TL;DR[/B] [TABLE] [TR] [TD]Aspect[/TD] [TD]Details[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Cash Rate[/TD] [TD]Unchanged at 4.35%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Previous Adjustments[/TD] [TD]Cumulative increase of 425 basis points over the past two years[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Objectives[/TD] [TD]Aimed at curbing post-pandemic inflationary pressures[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Inflation[/TD] [TD]Pronounced, particularly driven by sustained service sector prices[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Future Rate Hikes[/TD] [TD]Possibility left open, subject to incoming data and risk evaluations[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Inflation Target[/TD] [TD]Guiding inflation back within the 2-3% target range by 2025, with emphasis on achieving the midpoint by 2026[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Monitoring Factors[/TD] [TD]Global economic trends, domestic demand, inflation trajectories, and labor market conditions[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Exchange Settlement Balances Rate[/TD] [TD]Maintained at 4.25%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] The upcoming [B]Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes[/B] are set to be published on [B]Tuesday[/B] at [B]12:30 AM GMT[/B]. [B][U][Center]GBP - Nationwide Housing Prices m/m[/Center][/U][/B] The Nationwide Housing Price Index (HPI) is a significant indicator for the UK, tracking changes in the selling prices of homes with mortgages supported by Nationwide and standing as one of the earliest measures of housing inflation in the country. When the index reports a reading above market expectations, it is generally viewed as a positive or bullish signal for the British Pound (GBP), suggesting a robust housing market. Conversely, readings below expectations are seen as negative or bearish for the GBP, indicating potential softness in the housing sector. In February 2024, the Nationwide House Price Index in the United Kingdom experienced a 0.7% increase from the previous month, matching the growth rate of the earlier period and surpassing market forecasts, which had anticipated a modest 0.3% rise. The forecast for the monthly change in [B]Nationwide Housing Prices[/B] is set at [B]0.3%[/B], a decline from the previous month's increase of [B]0.7%[/B]. The next [B]Nationwide Housing Prices m/m[/B] is set to be released on [B]Monday[/B] at [B]6:00 AM GMT[/B]. [B][U][Center]GBP - Nationwide Housing Prices y/y[/Center][/U][/B] The Nationwide House Price Index, compiled by the UK's second-largest mortgage provider, Nationwide Building Society, serves as an essential gauge of the country's average house price movements. Focusing solely on its mortgage approvals, Nationwide's index, which accounts for about 10% of the mortgage market, exclusively considers owner-occupied properties sold at genuine market values, excluding sales such as council estates. With its inception in 1952 for quarterly reports and an expansion to monthly indices in 1993, Nationwide provides a long-standing and reliable measure of property price trends, similar to the Halifax index in being volume-weighted based on typical transaction prices. Market analysts view readings above expectations as favorable for the British Pound (GBP), whereas figures below anticipated levels are seen as negative. In February 2024, the Nationwide House Price Index in the United Kingdom witnessed a 1.2% increase from the year prior, marking an end to a year-long trend of declines and surpassing the anticipated 0.7% rise. This resurgence in the housing market is attributed to the reduced borrowing costs at the year's outset and a lessening strain on household finances. However, the ongoing uncertainty about future interest rate changes remains a potential hindrance to a full-fledged recovery in the housing sector. Despite the fact that borrowing costs are still below the highs seen last summer, there's been a notable increase in swap rates, which are crucial for setting fixed-rate mortgage prices, following their significant drop in late December. [B]TL;DR[/B] [TABLE] [TR] [TD]Aspect[/TD] [TD]Details[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]House Price Index[/TD] [TD]Witnessed a 1.2% increase from the year prior, ending a year-long trend of declines[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Anticipated Rise[/TD] [TD]Surpassed the anticipated 0.7% rise[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Contributing Factors[/TD] [TD]Reduced borrowing costs at the year's outset, lessening strain on household finances[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Uncertainty[/TD] [TD]Ongoing uncertainty about future interest rate changes remains a potential hindrance to full-fledged housing market recovery[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Borrowing Costs[/TD] [TD]Still below highs seen last summer[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Swap Rates[/TD] [TD]Notable increase following significant drop in late December, crucial for setting fixed-rate mortgage prices[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] The forecast for the [B]Nationwide Housing Prices y/y[/B] is projected at [B]2.4%[/B], showing an increase from the previous figure of [B]1.2%[/B]. The upcoming announcement for the [B]Nationwide Housing Prices y/y[/B] is scheduled for [B]Monday at [B]6:00 AM GMT[/B]. [B][U][Center]EUR - Spanish Manufacturing PMI[/Center][/U][/B] The S&P Global Spain Manufacturing PMI, a key indicator derived from a survey of 400 industrial companies, gauges the manufacturing sector's health based on five weighted indexes: New Orders (30%), Output (25%), Employment (20%), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15%, inverted for comparable directionality), and Stock of Items Purchased (10%). A PMI reading above 50 signifies sector expansion, below 50 indicates contraction, and exactly 50 denotes no change. This index, released by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), is crucial for understanding business conditions in the manufacturing sector, which plays a significant role in Spain's GDP and, by extension, offers insights into the country's economic health and sentiment towards the Euro. In February 2024, the HCOB Spain Manufacturing PMI climbed to 51.5 from 49.2 the previous month, outperforming the anticipated forecast of 50 and marking the sector's first expansion in almost a year. This positive shift was primarily driven by a slight increase in output and new orders, fueled by a resurgence in domestic demand. Additionally, employment and purchasing activities experienced growth. Despite these improvements, the month saw the most significant extension in delivery times since September 2022, attributed to disruptions in the Red Sea and related issues in the Suez Canal. On the pricing front, there was a nominal uptick in input costs, the first in a year, while output charges continued to fall, although at the slowest pace since the previous August, due to competitive pressures and strategies to attract new business. Moreover, business confidence soared to a two-year peak, bolstered by optimistic expectations of sustained sales and demand growth in the year ahead. [B]TL;DR[/B] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Aspect[/B][/TD] [TD][B]Details[/B][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Manufacturing PMI[/TD] [TD]Climbed to 51.5 from 49.2 the previous month, marking sector's first expansion in almost a year[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Performance vs. Forecast[/TD] [TD]Outperformed anticipated forecast of 50[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Driving Factors[/TD] [TD]Slight increase in output and new orders, fueled by resurgence in domestic demand[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Employment and Purchasing Activities[/TD] [TD]Experienced growth[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Delivery Times[/TD] [TD]Saw the most significant extension since September 2022, attributed to disruptions in the Red Sea and issues in the Suez Canal[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Input Costs[/TD] [TD]Nominal uptick, first in a year[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Output Charges[/TD] [TD]Continued to fall, but at the slowest pace since the previous August, due to competitive pressures and strategies[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Business Confidence[/TD] [TD]Soared to a two-year peak, bolstered by optimistic expectations of sustained sales and demand growth in the year ahead[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] The forecast for the [B]Spanish Manufacturing PMI[/B] stands at [B]51[/B], slightly below the previous reading of [B]51.5. The next [B]Spanish Manufacturing PMI[/B] is set to be released on [B]Monday[/B] at [B]7:15 AM GMT[/B]. [B][U][Center]EUR - Italian Manufacturing PMI[/Center][/U][/B] The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for Italy, released by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), is a critical gauge of the manufacturing sector's health, influencing the broader economic outlook given the sector's substantial contribution to GDP. Derived from a survey of 400 industrial companies, the PMI assesses business conditions through a weighted composition of five key indices: New Orders (30%), Output (25%), Employment (20%), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15%, inverted for consistency), and Stock of Items Purchased (10%). A PMI reading above 50 signals expansion in the manufacturing sector, indicating bullish prospects for the Euro, while a reading below 50 suggests contraction, potentially bearish for the currency, with a score of 50 denoting stability. In February 2024, the HCOB Italy Manufacturing PMI experienced a marginal increase to 48.7 from 48.5 in January, falling short of the anticipated 49.1 market expectations. This minor improvement, the least pronounced in an 11-month downturn, underscores the persistent challenges faced by Italy's manufacturing sector, attributed to subdued demand and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Despite nearing a year of contraction, the sector saw an acceleration in output decline, while delivery times from suppliers improved slightly, unaffected by the Red Sea crisis. Conversely, the rates of decline in new orders and inventory levels moderated, and for the first time in five months, firms reported workforce expansion. The price landscape continued to follow a deflationary trend. Nevertheless, future production outlooks among companies remained optimistic, hovering above historical averages, fueled by hopes for economic resurgence and more stable geopolitical conditions. [B]TL;DR[/B] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Aspect[/B][/TD] [TD][B]Details[/B][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Manufacturing PMI[/TD] [TD]Marginal increase to 48.7 from 48.5 in January, falling short of anticipated 49.1 market expectations[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Performance vs. Forecast[/TD] [TD]Minor improvement, least pronounced in an 11-month downturn[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Challenges[/TD] [TD]Persistent challenges attributed to subdued demand and ongoing geopolitical tensions[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Output and Delivery Times[/TD] [TD]Sector saw acceleration in output decline, while delivery times improved slightly, unaffected by the Red Sea crisis[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]New Orders and Inventory Levels[/TD] [TD]Rates of decline moderated, and for the first time in five months, firms reported workforce expansion[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Price Landscape[/TD] [TD]Continued to follow a deflationary trend[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Future Production Outlook[/TD] [TD]Optimistic outlook among companies, hovering above historical averages, fueled by hopes for economic resurgence and stable geopolitics[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] The forecast for the [B]Italian Manufacturing PMI[/B] suggests a slight improvement to [B]48.8[/B] from the previous reading of [B]48.7. The upcoming [B]Italian Manufacturing PMI[/B] is set to be released on [B]Tuesday[/B] at [B]7:45 AM GMT[/B]. [B][U][Center]EUR - French Final Manufacturing PMI[/Center][/U][/B] The HCOB France Manufacturing PMI, compiled by S&P Global from monthly surveys of approximately 400 manufacturing purchasing managers, serves as a leading indicator of economic health. The PMI is a composite index based on five key components: New Orders (30%), Output (25%), Employment (20%), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15%, inverted for comparability), and Stocks of Purchases (10%). It operates on a diffusion index scale from 0 to 100, where a reading above 50 signifies manufacturing expansion and below 50 indicates contraction. The index is closely monitored for its early insights into business conditions, including employment, production, and prices, reflecting the purchasing managers' current and relevant perspectives on the economy. Released monthly, on the first business day following the month's end, the PMI includes both Flash and Final reports, with the Flash release generally having a more significant market impact. In March 2024, the S&P Global France Manufacturing PMI declined to 45.8 from February's one-year peak of 47.1, falling short of the expected 47.5, marking the 14th consecutive month of contraction in the sector. This downturn was characterized by the lowest output levels since January 2023 and a significant decline in sales, attributed to client reluctance, challenging economic conditions, and inflationary pressures. Despite these challenges, job losses in the sector were minimal, and supply chain disruptions from incidents in the Red Sea did not prevent an increase in delivery times, indicating some stability. Input costs rose to a near-year high in February, while selling prices increased at a more moderate rate, marking the softest rise in over three years. Nonetheless, manufacturers maintained a positive outlook for the next 12 months. [B]TL;DR[/B] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Aspect[/B][/TD] [TD][B]Details[/B][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Manufacturing PMI[/TD] [TD]Declined to 45.8 from February's one-year peak of 47.1, falling short of the expected 47.5, marking the 14th consecutive month of contraction[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Output and Sales Levels[/TD] [TD]Lowest output levels since January 2023, significant decline in sales attributed to client reluctance, challenging economic conditions, and inflationary pressures[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Job Losses and Supply Chain[/TD] [TD]Minimal job losses, supply chain disruptions from incidents in the Red Sea did not prevent an increase in delivery times, indicating some stability[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Input and Selling Prices[/TD] [TD]Input costs rose to a near-year high in February, while selling prices increased at a more moderate rate, marking the softest rise in over three years[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Future Outlook[/TD] [TD]Manufacturers maintained a positive outlook for the next 12 months[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] The forecast for the [B]French Manufacturing PMI[/B] suggests a decrease to [B]45.8[/B] from the previous figure of [B]47.1[/B]. The upcoming release of the [B]French Final Manufacturing PMI[/B] is scheduled for [B]Tuesday[/B] at [B]7:50 PM GMT[/B]. [B][U][Center]EUR – German Final Manufacturing PMI[/Center][/U][/B] The HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI, crafted by S&P Global from surveys of around 420 manufacturing purchasing managers, serves as a pivotal gauge for Germany's manufacturing sector and, by extension, Europe's industrial health. The PMI, a composite index based on five key components—New Orders (30%), Output (25%), Employment (20%), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15%, inversely calculated), and Stocks of Purchases (10%)—provides a comprehensive snapshot of business activity. Readings above 50 signal expansion, positively impacting the Euro (EUR), while those below 50 indicate contraction, suggesting a bearish outlook for the EUR. This monthly indicator not only reflects current business conditions but also aids in forecasting broader economic trends, including GDP, industrial production, and inflation, underscoring its significance to investors and policymakers alike. In March 2024, the HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI saw a decline to 41.6 from February's 42.5, falling short of the anticipated 43.1 according to preliminary estimates, marking the sharpest downturn in the sector in five months. Despite a marginal slowdown in the pace of output reduction, the sector faced significant challenges, notably a steep drop in backlogs which led to further job cuts in factories. On a brighter note, the decrease in manufacturing purchase prices moderated to its slowest rate in a year, and there was a more pronounced decline in factory gate charges. Additionally, after a temporary dip in February, optimism within the manufacturing sector rebounded, signaling a potential shift towards a more positive outlook. [B]TL;DR[/B] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Aspect[/B][/TD] [TD][B]Details[/B][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Manufacturing PMI[/TD] [TD]Declined to 41.6 from February's 42.5, falling short of anticipated 43.1 according to preliminary estimates, marking the sharpest downturn in the sector in five months[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Challenges[/TD] [TD]Significant challenges faced, notably a steep drop in backlogs leading to further job cuts in factories[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Output and Prices[/TD] [TD]Marginal slowdown in pace of output reduction, decrease in manufacturing purchase prices moderated to its slowest rate in a year, more pronounced decline in factory gate charges[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Future Outlook[/TD] [TD]After a temporary dip in February, optimism within the manufacturing sector rebounded, signaling a potential shift towards a more positive outlook[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] The forecast for the [B]HCOB Manufacturing PMI[/B] suggests a figure of [B]41.6[/B], showing a decline from the previous reading of [B]42.5[/B]. The upcoming release of the [B]HCOB Manufacturing PMI[/B] is scheduled for [B]Tuesday[/B] at [B]7:55 AM GMT[/B]. [B][U][Center]EUR - Consumer Price Index y/y[/Center][/U][/B] The German Consumer Price Index (CPI), compiled monthly by Destatis, serves as a critical gauge of inflation by tracking the average price shift for a broad array of goods and services consumed by households. The Year-over-Year (YoY) comparison, which assesses price changes against the same month in the previous year, plays a pivotal role in understanding inflationary trends and shifts in consumer behavior, with significant implications for the Euro (EUR); higher readings typically bolster the EUR, while lower figures can dampen its value. The CPI basket is heavily weighted towards Housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels, which constitute 32% of the total, followed by Transport (13%), Recreation, entertainment, and culture (11%), and Food & non-alcoholic beverages (10%). Other notable categories include Miscellaneous goods & services, Furniture and household items, Restaurant & accommodation services, Health, and Clothing & footwear, together making up 27% of the index, with the final 7% comprising Alcoholic beverages & tobacco, Communication, and Education. In February 2024, Germany's inflation rate experienced a notable decline, settling at +2.5% year-on-year, the lowest since June 2021 and a marked decrease from the +2.9% recorded in January and +3.7% in December 2023. According to Ruth Brand, President of the Federal Statistical Office, this slowdown was attributed to falling energy product prices, which dropped by 2.4% compared to the same month the previous year, despite the cessation of energy price brakes and the introduction of a higher carbon tax. Additionally, the increase in food prices significantly slowed to just +0.9%, with notable declines in the costs of fresh vegetables and dairy products. While goods prices saw a below-average rise of 1.8%, service prices went up by 3.4%, influenced by various factors including the "Germany ticket" for public transport, which led to cheaper combined tickets for rail and bus. This period also witnessed the first month-on-month job growth in manufacturing in the last four months, signaling potential optimism in the economic climate. [B]TL;DR[/B] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Aspect[/B][/TD] [TD][B]Details[/B][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Inflation Rate[/TD] [TD]Experienced a notable decline, settling at +2.5% year-on-year, the lowest since June 2021, marked decrease from +2.9% in January and +3.7% in December 2023[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Contributing Factors[/TD] [TD]Falling energy product prices (-2.4% compared to the previous year), slowdown in food price increase to +0.9%, significant declines in fresh vegetables and dairy product costs[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Goods and Service Prices[/TD] [TD]Goods prices rose below average at 1.8%, service prices increased by 3.4%, influenced by factors including the "Germany ticket" for public transport[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Job Growth in Manufacturing[/TD] [TD]First month-on-month job growth in manufacturing in the last four months, signaling potential optimism in the economic climate[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] The projection for the [B]German CPI y/y[/B] is anticipated to be [B]2.4%[/B], slightly lower than the previous figure of [B]2.5%[/B]. The upcoming release of the [B]German CPI y/y[/B] is set for [B]Tuesday[/B] at [B]12:00 PM GMT[/B]. [B][U][Center]EUR - German Prelim CPI m/m[/Center][/U][/B] The German Preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) serves as a crucial measure of the change in prices for goods and services bought by consumers each month. Announced toward each month's end, this index is presented in two phases, with the Preliminary version being the initial one, released about 15 days before the final version. This initial release is particularly significant for financial markets as it provides an early glimpse into consumer inflation within the Eurozone, making it a key indicator for traders and financial analysts. Since consumer prices make up a significant portion of overall inflation, this data is closely monitored as it can influence the decisions of central banks. Typically, an increase in inflation can lead to higher interest rates, affecting the value of the currency by making it more appealing to investors seeking higher returns. In February 2024, Germany's inflation rate was recorded at 2.5%, reaching its lowest point since June 2021. Consumer prices saw a 0.4% increase from January 2024, based on provisional data from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). Energy prices fell by 2.4% year-over-year, even as the energy price brake concluded and a higher carbon price on fossil fuels was introduced. Food price inflation also decelerated to 0.9%, falling below the overall inflation rate for the first time since November 2021. The core inflation rate, which excludes food and energy, was at 3.4%. Furthermore, the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP), which omits certain items like owner-occupied housing costs, showed a 2.7% increase year-over-year and a 0.6% rise from the previous month. These statistics underscore the subtle distinctions between the CPI and HICP in capturing inflation, highlighting varied effects across different product groups and consumer spending. [B]TL;DR[/B] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Aspect[/B][/TD] [TD][B]Details[/B][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Overall Inflation Rate[/TD] [TD]Recorded at 2.5%, reaching its lowest point since June 2021[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Month-on-Month Change[/TD] [TD]Consumer prices increased by 0.4% from January 2024[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Energy Prices[/TD] [TD]Fell by 2.4% year-over-year despite the conclusion of the energy price brake and introduction of a higher carbon price on fossil fuels[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Food Price Inflation[/TD] [TD]Decelerated to 0.9%, falling below the overall inflation rate for the first time since November 2021[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Core Inflation Rate[/TD] [TD]Excluding food and energy, stood at 3.4%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)[/TD] [TD]Showed a 2.7% increase year-over-year and a 0.6% rise from the previous month, excluding certain items like owner-occupied housing costs[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Differences Between CPI and HICP[/TD] [TD]Highlighted the varied effects across different product groups and consumer spending, underscoring subtle distinctions in capturing inflation[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] The forecast for the [B]German Preliminary CPI m/m[/B] indicates a decrease to [B]2.2%[/B] from the previous rate of [B]2.5%[/B]. The [B]German Preliminary CPI m/m[/B] is set to take place on [B]Tuesday[/B] at [B]12:00 PM GMT[/B]. [B][U][Center]USD - JOLTS Job Openings[/Center][/U][/B] The JOLTS Job Openings report is a key labor market indicator that measures the number of job vacancies in the United States during a given month, with the exception of the farming industry. This report is issued monthly, approximately 35 days after the end of the reported month. Despite its relatively late release, the JOLTS data is highly regarded by economists and traders alike because job openings serve as a leading indicator of overall employment health. A high number of job openings typically signals a robust labor market, which can influence consumer spending and overall economic growth, thereby potentially impacting monetary policy decisions and market sentiment. In January, US job openings slightly declined to 8.86 million from a revised figure of 8.89 million, showcasing continued robustness in the labor market, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). This minor reduction in job vacancies, along with marginal decreases in hiring and layoffs, underscores the persistent strong demand for workers. The JOLTS report, which also incorporated annual adjustments going back to January 2019, revealed that job openings for 2023 were slightly revised down but have stabilized around the present level for the past three months. While certain sectors like trade, transportation, retail, and government saw a decline in openings, areas such as leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and health care experienced growth. The labor market's resilience is further highlighted by the existence of more than one job for every individual seeking employment in the US, with the ratio of job openings to unemployed persons maintaining a steady rate of around 1.4. Furthermore, the number of individuals voluntarily leaving their jobs dropped to a three-year low, reflecting a cautious stance among workers about switching jobs in a gradually cooling labor market. According to analysts at a leading financial news service, the continuous softening in labor demand coupled with workers' inclination to remain in their current positions could lead to diminished wage pressures, potentially impacting the Federal Reserve's approach to interest rates. The Fed, which has been wary of ongoing inflation, has shown reluctance to reduce interest rates, a sentiment echoed by Chair Jerome Powell during his testimony. In a related development, a report from the ADP Research Institute indicated a modest uptick in hiring by private-sector employers across various industries, regions, and company sizes. Nevertheless, the accuracy of JOLTS data has been scrutinized by some economists due to its low response rate. [B]TL;DR[/B] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Aspect[/B][/TD] [TD][B]Details[/B][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Job Openings[/TD] [TD]Slightly declined to 8.86 million from a revised figure of 8.89 million, showcasing continued robustness in the labor market[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Hiring and Layoffs[/TD] [TD]Marginal decreases alongside the minor reduction in job vacancies, underscoring persistent strong demand for workers[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sectoral Trends[/TD] [TD]Certain sectors saw a decline in openings, while others experienced growth[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Job Openings to Unemployed Persons Ratio[/TD] [TD]Maintained around 1.4, indicating more than one job for every individual seeking employment[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Worker Mobility[/TD] [TD]Number of individuals voluntarily leaving their jobs dropped to a three-year low, reflecting cautious stance about switching jobs in a gradually cooling labor market[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Impact on Wage Pressures[/TD] [TD]Softening in labor demand coupled with workers' inclination to remain in current positions could lead to diminished wage pressures, potentially impacting Federal Reserve's approach to interest rates[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]ADP Research Institute Report[/TD] [TD]Indicated a modest uptick in hiring by private-sector employers[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Scrutiny of JOLTS Data[/TD] [TD]Some economists scrutinize the accuracy of JOLTS data due to its low response rate[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] The projection for [B]JOLTS Job Openings[/B] suggests a slight decrease to [B]8.81 million[/B] from the previous figure of [B]8.863 million[/B]. The next [B]JOLTS Job Openings[/B] is scheduled for release on [B]Tuesday[/B] at [B]2:00 PM GMT[/B]. [HR][/HR] [I]Disclaimer: The market news provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered trading advice.[/I][/B][/B][/B] [/QUOTE]
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