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[QUOTE="Daniel LQDFX, post: 231285, member: 107699"] [HEADING=2][Center][Heading=1][B]Daily News Update[/B][/Heading][/Center][/HEADING] [HEADING=2] [Right]05 April 2024[/Right][/HEADING] [Right]Friday[/Right] [Heading=2]On Friday, a flurry of significant economic announcements is on the horizon. Great Britain gears up to release its Construction PMI, while Canada will make headlines with the announcement of its Ivey PMI. The day will also witness high-impact releases, as Canada reveals its Employment Change and Unemployment Rate figures, closely followed by the US's disclosure of Average Hourly Earnings month-on-month, Non-Farm Employment Change, and Unemployment Rate statistics. Investors and analysts alike are eagerly awaiting these updates, as they could potentially shape market trends and investor sentiment moving forward.[/Heading] [B][U][Center]GBP - Construction PMI[/Center][/U][/B] The Construction Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is a pivotal economic metric that offers monthly insights into the construction sector's health, derived from surveys of about 150 purchasing managers within the industry. Released on the third business day following the month's conclusion, the index functions as a diffusion gauge, where readings above 50 signal industry expansion, and those below indicate contraction. This indicator is closely watched by traders and economists as it serves as a leading signal of economic vitality, reflecting the immediate responses of businesses to fluctuating market conditions. The survey probes into various facets of business activity, such as employment levels, production rates, new orders, pricing trends, supplier delivery times, and inventory levels, providing a comprehensive snapshot of the construction sector's current state and its implications for the broader economy. The S&P Global UK Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for February stood at 49.7, exhibiting a modest increase from January's 48.8. This marks its highest level since August 2023, inching closer to the neutral threshold of 50.0. The slight improvement in the PMI indicates a near-stabilization of business activity across all three main categories of construction. Notably, house building experienced a significant turnaround, reaching a level of 49.8, the highest since November 2022. Despite challenges such as subdued performance in the commercial segment and constraints in budget setting, the uptick in the PMI suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook for the construction sector, signaling potential recovery in the near future. [B]TL;DR[/B] [LIST] [*]UK Construction PMI for February: 49.7, up from January's 48.8. [*]Highest PMI level since August 2023, close to the neutral 50.0 mark. [*]House building index at 49.8, its peak since November 2022. [*]Sector shows cautious optimism despite commercial and budget issues. [/LIST] The forecast for the [B]Construction PMI[/B] indicates a figure of [B]50[/B], compared to the previous outcome of [B]49.7[/B]. The next [B]Construction PMI[/B] is scheduled to be released on [B]Friday[/B] at [B]8:30 AM GMT[/B]. [B][U][Center]CAD - Employment Change[/Center][/U][/B] The Employment Change report, a crucial economic indicator, is unveiled roughly eight days following the conclusion of each month, detailing the fluctuations in employment figures from the preceding month. This data, given its significance and the promptness of its release, often has a substantial impact on the financial markets. The number of jobs created serves as a vital leading indicator, shedding light on consumer spending trends, which constitute a significant portion of overall economic activity. Traders and investors closely monitor this report, as it provides key insights into the health of the labor market and the potential direction of economic momentum. Canada's labor market experienced a robust upswing in February 2024, with the addition of 40,700 jobs, surpassing both the previous month's gains and market expectations. The surge was primarily attributed to an increase in full-time employment, especially within the services sector, highlighted by significant growth in accommodation, food services, and professional, scientific, and technical services, though some sectors like education faced setbacks. Notably, regions such as Alberta and Nova Scotia witnessed considerable employment growth, in contrast to a decline in Manitoba. Despite the positive job growth, the unemployment rate experienced a slight uptick to 5.8%, reflecting a growing labor force outpacing job availability. The period also saw a continuation of wage growth, with average hourly wages rising by 5% year-over-year. The employment landscape was further characterized by the sustained prominence of remote work and a notable public sector employment increase, amidst ongoing challenges such as the gender wage gap and shifting employment rates. [B]TL;DR[/B] [ATTACH type="full"]27932[/ATTACH] The forecast indicates a figure of [B]20,000[/B], in comparison to the previous month's figure of [B]40,700[/B]. The next [B]Employment Change[/B] is set to be announced on [B]Friday[/B] at [B]12:30 PM GMT[/B]. [B][U][Center]CAD - Unemployment Rate[/Center][/U][/B] The monthly Unemployment Rate, a key barometer of the labor market's health, is announced approximately eight days after the month concludes. This figure represents the percentage of the workforce that is not employed but is actively looking for work. Despite being traditionally considered a lagging indicator, the unemployment rate is closely watched by traders and economists for its profound implications on overall economic health. This is because the level of consumer spending, a major driver of economic activity, is intrinsically linked to labor market conditions. A rise or fall in unemployment can signal shifts in consumer confidence and spending, making this statistic a critical piece of the economic puzzle for market participants. In February, Canada's unemployment rate marginally increased by 0.1 percentage points to 5.8%, continuing the stable trend observed since it rose from 5.1% in April to 5.8% by November 2023. The labor force participation rate held steady at 65.3%. Among core-aged individuals, men saw a rise in unemployment to 5.3% due to more entering the job market, while women experienced a decrease to 4.6%. Youth unemployment rose notably among men aged 15 to 24 to 12.0%, with a slight change for young women to 11.1%. The youth labor force participation rate climbed to 63.3%, the first increase since December 2022, despite a year-over-year decline for both genders. Older women saw a slight uptick in unemployment to 4.5%, whereas the rate for men aged 55 and older remained constant at 4.6%. [B]TL;DR[/B] [ATTACH type="full"]27933[/ATTACH] The forecast for the [B]Unemployment Rate[/B] suggests a rise to [B]6.1%[/B], up from the previous outcome of [B]5.8%[/B]. The upcoming announcement for the [B]Unemployment Rate[/B] is scheduled for [B]Friday[/B] at [B]12:30 PM GMT[/B]. [B][U][Center]USD - Average Hourly Earnings m/m[/Center][/U][/B] In the latest economic updates, the Average Hourly Earnings month-on-month report, a key indicator of labor inflation, is set to be released typically on the first Friday following the month's end. This data, crucial for understanding changes in labor costs excluding the agricultural sector, stands as the earliest insight into wage inflation dynamics. Notably, the methodology for calculating this series underwent significant revision in February 2010 to enhance accuracy. For traders and financial analysts, this report is of paramount importance as it serves as a leading indicator of consumer inflation. The rationale is straightforward: as businesses incur higher labor expenses, these increased costs are often transferred to consumers, influencing broader inflationary trends and potentially shaping monetary policy decisions. In February, the average hourly earnings for employees on private nonfarm payrolls saw a slight increase, with a 5-cent rise to $34.57, marking a 0.1 % increase for the month and a 4.3 % rise year-over-year. Earnings for private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees also increased by 7 cents to $29.71. The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose slightly by 0.1 hours to 34.3 hours. Manufacturing work hours remained stable at 39.9 hours, with overtime increasing to 3.0 hours. For production and nonsupervisory employees, the average workweek went up by 0.3 hours to 33.8 hours. Additionally, revisions to previous months' employment data reduced the total nonfarm payroll employment gains for December and January by 167,000, with December's figures adjusted to +290,000 and January's to +229,000. [B]TL;DR[/B] [LIST] [*]Average hourly earnings on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 5 cents to $34.57, a 0.1% monthly and 4.3% annual rise. [*]Private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees saw earnings increase by 7 cents to $29.71. [*]The average workweek for all private nonfarm employees rose by 0.1 hours to 34.3 hours. [*]Manufacturing work hours stable at 39.9 hours, with overtime up to 3.0 hours. [*]Workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 0.3 hours to 33.8 hours. [*]Revisions reduced December and January's total nonfarm payroll gains by 167,000, to +290,000 and +229,000 respectively.Top of Form. [/LIST] The forecast for [B]Average Hourly Earnings m/m[/B] suggests a [B]0.3%[/B] increase, compared to the previous outcome of [B]0.1%[/B]. The release for [B]Average Hourly Earnings m/m[/B] is scheduled for [B]Friday[/B] at [B]12:30 PM GMT[/B]. [B][U][Center]USD - Non-Farm Employment Change[/Center][/U][/B] The Non-Farm Employment Change report, a crucial piece of economic data, highlights the change in employment figures across the United States, excluding the agricultural sector. Scheduled for release typically on the first Friday following the end of the month, this indicator provides a timely snapshot of employment trends. Its significance, coupled with the promptness of its availability, often results in considerable movements within financial markets. Traders and investors pay close attention to this report as it serves as a key leading indicator of consumer spending, which drives a significant portion of the country's economic activity. A positive change in employment numbers suggests increased consumer spending potential, thereby signaling robust economic health, while a decline can indicate potential slowdowns, making this report a crucial tool for market analysis and decision-making. In February 2024, the US labor market outperformed expectations by adding 275,000 jobs, surpassing the anticipated 200,000 and the revised January figure of 229,000. Notable job increases were observed in the health care sector with 67,000 new positions, particularly in health care services and hospitals, each contributing 28,000 jobs. The government sector added 52,000 jobs, with local government roles, excluding education, accounting for 26,000 of these. The food services and drinking places industry saw a significant uptick of 42,000 jobs, reversing a previous trend of stagnation. Additionally, the social assistance and transportation and warehousing sectors added 24,000 and 20,000 jobs respectively, the latter buoyed by a 17,000 increase in couriers and messengers roles, following a 70,000 job decline over the preceding three months. Construction employment grew by 23,000, while manufacturing saw a slight decrease of 4,000 jobs. The initial job gain estimates for January and December were significantly revised downwards, resulting in a combined 167,000 fewer jobs than initially reported, with January's figure adjusted from 353,000 to 229,000, and December's from 333,000 to 290,000. [B]TL;DR[/B] [ATTACH type="full"]27934[/ATTACH] The upcoming release for [B]Non-Farm Employment Change[/B] is scheduled for [B]Friday[/B] at [B]12:30 PM GMT[/B]. The forecast for [B]Non-Farm Employment Change[/B] suggests [B]198,000[/B], down from the previous outcome of [B]275,000[/B]. [B][U][Center]USD - Unemployment Rate[/Center][/U][/B] The Unemployment Rate, a key metric reflecting the health of the labor market, is reported monthly, typically on the first Friday following the month's close. This rate measures the percentage of the workforce that is without employment but actively seeking work. While often considered a lagging indicator, the significance of the unemployment figures extends beyond mere statistics. For traders and economic analysts, these numbers are a vital sign of the nation's economic vitality, given the strong correlation between consumer spending and labor market conditions. Moreover, the unemployment rate plays a critical role in shaping monetary policy, as policymakers weigh its implications in their decisions. This makes the monthly report much more than a snapshot of joblessness; it's a lens through which the broader economic landscape is viewed and understood. In February 2024, the U.S. saw varied changes in unemployment rates across states, with increases in three states, decreases in three, and stability in 44 states plus the District of Columbia, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the year, 28 states experienced higher unemployment rates, while three saw decreases, and 19 states along with the District had minimal changes. The national unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.9%, marking a 0.3 percentage point increase from February 2023. Notably, North Dakota boasted the lowest unemployment rate at 2.0%, whereas California had the highest at 5.3%. Nonfarm payroll employment saw an uptick in four states, remained mostly unchanged in 46 states and the District, and increased in 25 states over the year. These statistics draw from household surveys for individual data and establishment surveys for nonfarm employment, providing a comprehensive overview of the nation's employment landscape. [B]TL;DR[/B] [LIST] [*]Varied changes in state unemployment rates: 3 states increased, 3 decreased, stability in 44 states + DC. [*]Over the year: 28 states saw higher unemployment rates, 3 lower, 19 + DC minimal changes. [*]National unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, up by 0.3 percentage points from February 2023. [*]Lowest state unemployment rate: North Dakota at 2.0%. [*]Highest state unemployment rate: California at 5.3%. [*]Nonfarm payroll employment: Increased in 4 states, mostly unchanged in 46 + DC, increased in 25 states over the year. [*]Data sources: Household surveys for individual data, establishment surveys for nonfarm employment. [/LIST] The forecast for the [B]Unemployment Rate[/B] suggests it will remain unchanged at [B]3.9%[/B], mirroring the previous outcome. The upcoming release of the [B]Unemployment Rate[/B] is set for [B]Friday[/B] at [B]12:30 PM GMT[/B]. [B][U][Center]CAD - Ivey PMI[/Center][/U][/B] The Ivey Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is a significant economic indicator derived from a survey of approximately 175 purchasing managers, strategically selected across various geographic locations and sectors to represent the broader economy. Released monthly, around five days after the month's conclusion, the index provides insights into the business climate by measuring the level of a diffusion index. A reading above 50 signifies expansion within the industry, while a value below 50 indicates contraction. Notably, in March 2011, the series underwent a revision to adjust for seasonal factors. Traders and financial analysts monitor the Ivey PMI closely as it is considered a leading indicator of economic health. The rapid response of businesses to changing market conditions is captured through the purchasing managers' perspectives on a range of business activities, including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories, making it a valuable tool for gauging the economic outlook. In February 2024, Canada's Ivey Purchasing Managers Index saw a decrease to 53.9 from the previous month's 56.5, indicating a moderation in economic activity while still reflecting the continuation of growth for the seventh consecutive month. Despite this dip, the overall expansion persisted, albeit at a slightly slower pace. Notably, there was a rise in the inventories index to 53.6 from January's 50.3. However, other significant indicators such as employment, supplier deliveries, and prices experienced declines, with respective figures of 50.8 (down from 57.2), 50.3 (down from 51.8), and 60.4 (down from 62.2). Encouragingly, the unadjusted PMI showed an increase from 54.4 to 56.3, suggesting some underlying resilience in the face of varying economic factors. [B]TL;DR[/B] [ATTACH type="full"]27936[/ATTACH] The forecast for [B]the Ivey PMI[/B] suggests a reading of [B]51.6[/B], down from the previous outcome of [B]53.9[/B]. The next [B]Ivey PMI[/B] is set to be released on [B]Friday[/B] at [B]2:00 PM GMT[/B]. [HR][/HR] [I]Disclaimer: The market news provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered trading advice.[/I] [/QUOTE]
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