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Market Analysis and Forecasts


February 21, 2025



Major Currencies:
XAU/USD
Analysis: Gold has surged to an all-time high above $2,950 per ounce, driven by concerns over global trade policies and lower US Treasury yields. Despite overbought conditions, gold remains in a strong uptrend, as demand for safe-haven assets continues to support prices.
The short-term outlook remains bullish, with immediate resistance at $2,950. A sustained move above this level could drive prices toward the psychological barrier of $3,000. On the downside, key support levels are at $2,930 and $2,900. A break below these levels could trigger a deeper correction towards $2,880 and beyond.
Key Levels:

• Support: 2,930, 2,900, 2,880, 2,855, 2,834
• Resistance: 2,950, 3,000

Forecast: Bullish trend likely to continue, but a break below $2,900 could signal a correction.






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Weekly Economic Calendar


February 24-28, 2024



Economic Focus This Week
Thursday, 27 February 2025

• Spanish CPI Data – Inflation data from Spain, which could influence European Central Bank (ECB) policy expectations.
• Swiss GDP Report – A crucial economic growth indicator for the Swiss economy.
• US Prelim GDP Report – A key release that will provide insights into the overall economic expansion in the United States.
• Durable Goods Orders Data – Market participants will assess business investment trends based on this data.
• US Weekly Unemployment Claims – A closely watched labor market indicator.
• US Pending Home Sales Update – This report will provide a forward-looking view of housing market activity.

Friday, 28 February 2025

• Tokyo CPI Release – This report will be critical for Yen traders, providing an update on inflation trends in Japan.
• German Prelim CPI Data – A key inflation gauge from Europe’s largest economy, which could influence the ECB’s monetary policy stance.
• Canadian GDP Data – This release will provide a crucial update on Canada’s economic performance.
• US Core PCE Price Index – The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, likely to be the most significant market-moving event of the day.
• Chicago PMI Report – A key indicator of business conditions in the Chicago region.

Weekend Watch (Saturday, 1 March 2025 – Sunday, 2 March 2025)

• China’s Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI Data – These reports could set the tone for the upcoming week, as they provide insights into China’s economic activity and demand outlook.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


February 25, 2025



Major Currencies:
XAU/USD

• Gold prices remain near all-time highs as safe-haven demand continues to support the metal amid global trade concerns and economic uncertainty. While expectations of prolonged high interest rates in the U.S. have limited gold's upside, investors remain cautious due to ongoing geopolitical risks.
• Short-Term Outlook: Gold is likely to remain range-bound, with potential breakouts depending on macroeconomic developments.
• Key Levels: Support at 2932 and 2865, resistance at 2942 and 2954.
• Forecast: If gold breaks above 2954, further bullish momentum could drive prices higher. A decline below 2877 may lead to a deeper correction.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


February 26, 2025



Major Currencies:
XAU/USD
Gold has shown signs of exhaustion near the $2,955 level, with sellers emerging at resistance. A strong technical correction appears likely, with key levels coming into play.
Technical Levels

• Support Levels: 2,930, 2,920, 2,890
• Resistance Levels: 2,945, 2,955, 2,968

The price is currently trading below the 2,945 resistance level. A move below 2,930 could confirm a deeper correction toward 2,920 and potentially 2,890.
Forecast
Gold's outlook remains bearish in the short term, with a possible decline to 2,920. However, any renewed concerns about economic instability or a weaker US dollar could provide support and push prices back toward 2,955 or higher.






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Market Analysis and Forecasts


February 28, 2025



Major Currencies:
XAU/USD
Gold remains under pressure, recently declining to a two-week low near $2,880. Strength in the U.S. dollar and a rise in Treasury yields have weighed on the precious metal. However, ongoing concerns over U.S. tariffs and economic uncertainty could provide support for gold in the medium term.
Key Levels:

• Support: 2,876, 2,860, 2,855
• Resistance: 2,920, 2,939, 2,955

If gold holds above 2,876, an upward push toward 2,920 is possible. However, a sustained break below 2,860 could trigger a sharper decline, potentially reaching the psychological support at 2,800.





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Weekly Economic Calendar


March 3-8, 2025



Economic Focus This Week
Thursday, 6 March 2025

• New Zealand market watch: Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Adrian Orr’s speech in the Asian session.
• European session:
  • UK Construction PMI data.
  • ECB Rate Decision, followed by the ECB’s Statement and Press Conference.
• US and Canadian data releases:
  • US Weekly Unemployment Claims.
  • Canada’s Ivey PMI.

Friday, 7 March 2025

• Main focus: US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), expected at +156K.
• Early sessions likely to remain quiet until US markets open.
• Canadian employment data released alongside NFP but expected to have a smaller market impact.
• Later in the day:
  • Speeches from several FOMC members.
  • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's address, a potential market mover.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


March 4, 2025



Major Currencies:
XAU/USD
Gold prices remain supported amid trade tensions and concerns over inflation. The potential for retaliatory tariffs and continued economic uncertainty drive safe-haven demand.

• Support Levels: 2854, 2828
• Resistance Levels: 2866, 2898, 2930, 2940, 2944
• Forecast: If gold stays above 2854, bullish momentum could push prices higher. A break above 2898 would indicate further upside potential. However, a decline below 2828 may trigger additional selling pressure.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


March 5, 2025



Major Currencies:
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar has rebounded after a prolonged downtrend, benefiting from improved retail sales data and the RBA's cautious stance on future rate cuts. The AUD/USD pair is trading above 0.6200 but faces resistance ahead.
Support Levels: 0.6200, 0.6177
Resistance Levels: 0.6228, 0.6251
While the recent rally has provided relief, the medium-term outlook remains uncertain. If the price breaks and holds above 0.6251, further gains could be expected. However, renewed trade tensions or weaker U.S. data could introduce volatility.
Forecast: The short-term outlook remains cautiously bullish. A sustained move above 0.6251 could lead to further gains, while failure to hold above 0.6200 may see renewed selling pressure.






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Market Analysis and Forecasts


March 6, 2025



Major Currencies:
XAU/USD
Gold has recently tested significant resistance levels amid increased demand for safe-haven assets following geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty. The precious metal reached overbought levels, and a technical correction may be underway.
If gold fails to break above the 2,929 resistance zone, a decline toward 2,890 or even 2,880 could be expected. However, renewed demand for safe-haven assets could drive prices toward the key psychological level of $3,000.
Support Levels: 2,890, 2,880
Resistance Levels: 2,929, 2,968
A confirmed break above 2,929 may lead to further gains, whereas a drop below 2,880 could indicate an extended correction.






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Market Analysis and Forecasts


March 7, 2025



Major Currencies:
USD/CAD
The Canadian dollar has strengthened amid trade policy developments and improving oil prices. However, uncertainty remains due to potential shifts in the Federal Reserve’s monetary stance and upcoming employment data.
Key Levels:

• Support: 1.4300, 1.4260, 1.4200
• Resistance: 1.4400, 1.4470, 1.4500

Forecast:
The USD/CAD pair is facing downward pressure. A break below 1.4300 would open the door for a decline toward 1.4200. If buyers regain control, resistance at 1.4400 must be breached for a move toward 1.4500.






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Weekly Economic Calendar


March 10-15, 2025



Economic Focus This Week

1. Wednesday, 12 March 2025:
   • Expected to be the most eventful day of the week.
   • No major releases in the Asian session.
   • ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak during the European session, which could influence euro markets.
   • Major attention on the US session:
     • Release of critical US CPI data, likely to trigger significant market movements.
     • Bank of Canada's interest rate decision, rate statement, and follow-up press conference.
2. Thursday, 13 March 2025:
   • The Asian and European sessions are expected to remain subdued.
   • US session highlights:
     • Release of PPI data, the second major inflation report of the week.
     • Weekly Unemployment Claims report, though traditionally less impactful than CPI figures.
3. Friday, 14 March 2025:
   • A quiet Asian session rounds out the week.
   • UK markets come into focus at the London open with the release of key GDP data.
   • The US session is expected to be relatively calm, with attention on:
     • Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
     • Inflation Expectations data shortly after the market opens.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


March 11, 2025



Major Currencies:
USD/CAD
Market Overview
USD/CAD has been in a corrective phase, with the Canadian dollar facing downward pressure following weak employment data. Market sentiment suggests the Bank of Canada could implement a rate cut, increasing bearish sentiment for the CAD. Trade uncertainty with the U.S. has also contributed to volatility.
Support and Resistance Levels

• Support: 1.4298, 1.4240, 1.4190
• Resistance: 1.4440, 1.4490

Short-Term Forecast
A consolidation phase is expected before further downside movement. A break below 1.4298 may lead to 1.4240. However, if the price moves above 1.4440, bullish momentum may resume.





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