The report below shows levels of open interest in currency futures market. The data is based on Chicago Mercantile Exchange Daily Volume and Open Interest Report. Data provided by the report contains Open Interest from the previous trading day.
Interpretation and analysis – GainForexSignal Team
Euro FX
EUR/USD
Date 13/01/2012
Last extreme 31/10/2011
Total Open Interest 292,949
Net Marginal Change -6,124
Marginal Accumulation 165,893
Change in Total OI (%) 73.73
Traders decreased number of transactions in Euro FX futures market by 6,124 contracts last night. It is a substantial amount but not enough to bring the current trend to its end. The euro downtrend remains intact for the moment. We shall see some further drop in prices in coming sessions. Euro futures added 73% in total open interest since the last extreme (1.42) excluding December’s delivery rollover. Amount of contracts added reached 170,000. It is an exact level reached on 30 Sep 2011 from where the declining prices began to correct from 1.31 to 1.42. From the chart we note that marginal change in new transactions coming in is fading. We might see a significant correction in coming days/weeks. Only 10% drop in open interest would give a reason to enter long positions.
GBP FUTURES
GBP/USD
Date 13/01/2012
Last extreme 30/12/2011
Total Open Interest 214,790
Net Marginal Change 6,448
Marginal Accumulation 25,204
Change in Total OI (%) 12.9
In yesterday’s trading we saw 6,448 fresh, new transactions in cable futures market. Total open interest amounted to almost 13% since the last 8% drop on 04thJan. GBP/USD is now trading near important support levels. We anticipate higher prices from here.We might see further drops below support levels before cable move higher.
YEN FUTURES
USD/JPY
Date 13/01/2012
Last extreme 27/12/2011
Total Open Interest 167,735
Net Marginal Change 2,761
Marginal Accumulation 38,233
Change in Total OI (%) 28.84
Yen futures open interest increased by 2,761 new transactions. The level of OI remains flat. It could be an indication of the current trend weakness. We closed part of the short usd/jpy position.
FRANK FUTURES
USD/CHF
Date 13/01/2012
Last extreme 01/11/2011
Total Open Interest 39,645
Net Marginal Change -2,166
Marginal Accumulation 40,110
Change in Total OI (%) 141.27
Traders shorted swiss frank futures market by 2,166 contracts in yesterday’s trading. This is second day with negative open interest. We note that marginal rate of interest is clearly fading. Give USD/CHF is currently trading at an important resistance levels; we might see some downside potential in USD/CHF in coming weeks.
AUD FUTURES
AUD/USD
Date 13/01/2012
Last extreme 19/12/2011
Total Open Interest 129,622
Net Marginal Change 1,239
Marginal Accumulation 26,962
Change in Total OI (%) 18.73
We saw another 1,239 new contracts in this market last night. Another strong confirmation if the current trend. A word of caution- open interest in gold comex futures is decreasing substantially over the last week questioning the strength of current higher prices in GLD. As a Australian dollar highly correlated with the yellow metal, we might see price correction before the trend resumes higher.
Interpretation and analysis – GainForexSignal Team
Euro FX
EUR/USD
Date 13/01/2012
Last extreme 31/10/2011
Total Open Interest 292,949
Net Marginal Change -6,124
Marginal Accumulation 165,893
Change in Total OI (%) 73.73
Traders decreased number of transactions in Euro FX futures market by 6,124 contracts last night. It is a substantial amount but not enough to bring the current trend to its end. The euro downtrend remains intact for the moment. We shall see some further drop in prices in coming sessions. Euro futures added 73% in total open interest since the last extreme (1.42) excluding December’s delivery rollover. Amount of contracts added reached 170,000. It is an exact level reached on 30 Sep 2011 from where the declining prices began to correct from 1.31 to 1.42. From the chart we note that marginal change in new transactions coming in is fading. We might see a significant correction in coming days/weeks. Only 10% drop in open interest would give a reason to enter long positions.
GBP FUTURES
GBP/USD
Date 13/01/2012
Last extreme 30/12/2011
Total Open Interest 214,790
Net Marginal Change 6,448
Marginal Accumulation 25,204
Change in Total OI (%) 12.9
In yesterday’s trading we saw 6,448 fresh, new transactions in cable futures market. Total open interest amounted to almost 13% since the last 8% drop on 04thJan. GBP/USD is now trading near important support levels. We anticipate higher prices from here.We might see further drops below support levels before cable move higher.
YEN FUTURES
USD/JPY
Date 13/01/2012
Last extreme 27/12/2011
Total Open Interest 167,735
Net Marginal Change 2,761
Marginal Accumulation 38,233
Change in Total OI (%) 28.84
Yen futures open interest increased by 2,761 new transactions. The level of OI remains flat. It could be an indication of the current trend weakness. We closed part of the short usd/jpy position.
FRANK FUTURES
USD/CHF
Date 13/01/2012
Last extreme 01/11/2011
Total Open Interest 39,645
Net Marginal Change -2,166
Marginal Accumulation 40,110
Change in Total OI (%) 141.27
Traders shorted swiss frank futures market by 2,166 contracts in yesterday’s trading. This is second day with negative open interest. We note that marginal rate of interest is clearly fading. Give USD/CHF is currently trading at an important resistance levels; we might see some downside potential in USD/CHF in coming weeks.
AUD FUTURES
AUD/USD
Date 13/01/2012
Last extreme 19/12/2011
Total Open Interest 129,622
Net Marginal Change 1,239
Marginal Accumulation 26,962
Change in Total OI (%) 18.73
We saw another 1,239 new contracts in this market last night. Another strong confirmation if the current trend. A word of caution- open interest in gold comex futures is decreasing substantially over the last week questioning the strength of current higher prices in GLD. As a Australian dollar highly correlated with the yellow metal, we might see price correction before the trend resumes higher.
