15th March 2018 - The dovish US retail brought back the risk-off sentiment

Walid Salah Eldin

Master Trader
Feb 15, 2016
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Egypt
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UST 10yr yield retreated further to be now near 2.82%, after the risk aversion sentiment contained the market during the US session lingering to the Asian session.

the weaker than expected retail sales figures of March could boost the risk-off sentiment increasing the demand for safer assets lower the outlook of the interest rate in US.

US retail sales in March declined by 0.1% monthly, while the most of the markets pundits were waiting for rebounding of the consuming spending can raise retail sales by 0.4% m/m, after retreating in February by 0.3% has been revised yesterday to declining by only 0.1%.

The data added more worries about the US expansion rate in the beginning of this year, after Jan US Durable goods have previously shocked the markets by falling by 3.7% showing lower business spending.

Despite the continued improving of the US labor market which has shown recently higher scale of hiring can fuel the demand for consuming and the inflation upside risks.

It is not any longer foredoomed to see interest rate hiking next week by 0.25%, after the meeting of the FOMC members who can appreciate taking that action which has been highly previously expected just to restore trust in US economic activity by showing their confidence in it, despite the volatility in the Equities markets.

The committee can shock the markets by any reference to weakness or slowdown in the US economy, after the optimism which has been highlighted it is released economic assessment following the meeting of January.

When the committee members were confident in the US economy and its ability to reach the Fed's 2% inflation goal Specially after considering adopting $1.5 trillion in tax cuts to take effect starting from this year.


Kind Regards

Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends

Walid Salah El Din