5th September 2023
Tuesday
Tuesday
Australia is set to reveal important financial updates on Tuesday, September 5th, 2023, with a spotlight on the release of the Cash Rate and the accompanying RBA Rate Statement, offering insights into the nation's evolving economic landscape.
AUD - Cash Rate
Short-term interest rates are closely monitored by traders because they have the greatest impact on currency valuation. Other indicators are frequently used by traders to estimate probable rate adjustments in the future.
Australia's central bank chose to keep its interest rates steady at 4.1%, maintaining this stance for a second consecutive month on Tuesday 1st of August. The Reserve Bank of Australia had decided to buy time for evaluating the impact of earlier rate hikes, all the while issuing warnings about potential future increases. This determination coincided with a moderation in Australia's inflation, which eased to 6% in the second quarter from 7% in the initial quarter, although it remained significantly above the RBA's target range of 2% to 3%. Economists had differing opinions on whether the Australian central bank would raise interest rates during this particular meeting, with a slim majority anticipating a 25-basis point hike.
The upcoming announcement is slated for September 5th, 2023, at 05:30 AM GMT+1.
Forecast for Australian Cash Rate reads a steady 4.1%.
AUD - RBA Rate Statement
Traders eagerly follow this statement since it is one of the primary means by which the RBA Reserve Bank Board communicates with investors about monetary policy. It includes the interest rate decision as well as insights into the economic variables that influenced this decision. It is extremely important since it looks into economic possibilities and provides significant suggestions about the likely results of upcoming actions.
The September 5th, 2023 RBA Rate Statement is anticipated to cover the following topics:
- Current status of the Australian economy, with emphasis on inflation and economic growth.
- Inflation outlook and the RBA's strategies for inflation management.
- Economic growth projections and the RBA's initiatives to bolster it.
- Evaluation of economic risks, both domestic and international.
- RBA's determination regarding the cash rate, along with influencing factors.
- Updates on economic, inflation, and cash rate forecasts.
- Release of a comprehensive statement detailing the cash rate decision.
The announcement is scheduled for September 5th, 2023 at 05:30 AM GMT+1.
6th September 2023
Wednesday
Wednesday
Expect a day of considerable impact on Wednesday, September 6th, 2023. Australia is scheduled to reveal its GDP q/q, Canada will make announcements regarding the BOC Rate Statement and Overnight Rate, while the US will disclose the ISM Services PMI.
AUD - GDP q/q
Traders highly esteem this indicator due to its ability to offer a comprehensive evaluation of economic activity, serving as a pivotal gauge for assessing the overall health and robustness of the economy.
Referring to the first quarter of 2023, the Australian economy saw a 0.2% expansion. This figure was below the expected 0.3% increase, following a 0.6% upswing during Q4. The mentioned quarter represented the sixth consecutive period of growth, although it occurred at a slower rate. Factors contributing to this included reduced household consumption and savings, influenced by increased cost pressures and higher interest rates. Additionally, both government spending and net trade experienced a deceleration. However, private investment showed significant growth at 1.4%, driven by diverse sectors. Notably, public investment also witnessed a positive shift with a 3.0% increase, primarily due to state and local expenditures. Despite these fluctuations, the overall annual growth for the year stood at 2.3%, which marked a decline from the 2.7% growth observed in the preceding quarter.
The upcoming Australian GDP quarter-over-quarter (q/q) release is set to take place on the 6th of September, 2023, at 02:30 AM GMT+1
The forecast for Australian GDP q/q reads a slight increase to 0.3%.
6th September 2023
Wednesday
CAD – BOC Rate Statement & Overnight Rate
Traders value this communication tool since it is the key mechanism by which the BOC interacts with investors on monetary policy. This document summarizes the interest rate decision and provides insights into the economic variables that influenced it. It is extremely important since it looks into economic projections and provides suggestions about the possible trajectory of subsequent actions.
In July 2023, the Bank of Canada raised its overnight rate by 25 basis points to 5%, as markets had expected. This move had followed a surprise 25 basis points rate hike in the previous meeting, extending the tightening cycle. The decision had been influenced by robust consumer spending and a tight labor market, which had contributed to ongoing inflationary pressures. The bank had also revised its inflation forecast, projecting inflation to stay around 3% in the upcoming year before gradually easing to the 2% target by mid-2025. The central bank had remained committed to stabilizing prices for Canadians while closely monitoring core inflation dynamics and the overall CPI outlook.
The next BOC Rate Statement & Overnight Rate is scheduled for September 6, 2023, at 3:00 PM GMT+1.
Forecast for the Canadian Overnight Rate is reading a slight increase to 5.25%.
6th September 2023
Wednesday
Wednesday
USD – ISM Services PMI
Traders are interested because It's a leading sign of economic health because businesses react swiftly to market conditions, and their buying managers may have the most up-to-date and relevant insight into the company's economic outlook.
The ISM Services PMI fell from June's four-month high of 53.9 to 52.7 in July 2023, falling short of the anticipated 53. This data showed that the growth of services was slowing down, which was related to smaller increases in business activity/production (57.1 vs. 59.2), new orders (55 vs. 55.5), employment (50.7 vs. 53.1), and inventories (50.4 vs. 55.9). The supplier delivery times, however, accelerated (48.1 vs. 47.6). In parallel, pricing pressures increased (56.8 vs. 54.1), and the backlog of orders recovered (52.1 vs. 43.9). Additionally, the majority of respondents expressed cautious optimism about the state of the economy and the business environment.
The upcoming ISM Services PMI is set for September 6, 2023, at 3:00 PM GMT+1.
Forecast for US ISM Services PMI is reading a slight decrease to 52.3%.
TL;DR
| Metric | June 2023 | July 2023 | Change |
| ISM Services PMI | 53.9 | 52.7 | Decreased |
| Business Activity/Production | 59.2 | 57.1 | Decreased |
| New Orders | 55.5 | 55.0 | Decreased |
| Employment | 53.1 | 50.7 | Decreased |
| Inventories | 55.9 | 50.4 | Decreased |
| Supplier Delivery Times | 47.6 | 48.1 | Increased |
| Pricing Pressures | 54.1 | 56.8 | Increased |
| Backlog of Orders | 43.9 | 52.1 | Increased |
7th September 2023
Thursday
Thursday
AUD - Reserve Bank of Australia's Lowe is scheduled to deliver a speech
Traders are interested because, as the head of the central bank, Lowe wields substantial influence over short-term interest rates, giving him unparalleled control over the country's currency valuation. His public appearances are closely examined by traders since they frequently contain subtle hints about potential shifts in future monetary policy
The speech is scheduled for the 7th of September 2023 at 04:10 AM GMT+1.
USD – Unemployment Claims
Although often classified as a lagging indicator, traders demonstrate interest in the number of unemployed individuals, as it functions as a crucial gauge of the overall economic condition. This is primarily because there exists a noteworthy correlation between consumer spending and the labor market's state. Additionally, those responsible for shaping the country's monetary policy accord considerable significance to the issue of unemployment.
In the week ending August 26, there had been 228,000 initial claims, marking a 4,000 decrease from the revised count of the prior week. The 4-week moving average had stood at 237,500, signifying an increase of 250 from the revised average of the previous week. The insured unemployment rate had been 1.2%, and insured unemployment had stood at 1,725,000, reflecting an increase of 28,000 from the revised level of the prior week. The 4-week average for insured unemployment had been 1,704,250.
The next planned unemployment claims date is September 7, 2023, at 1:30 PM GMT+1.
Forecast for US Unemployment Claims reads an increased number of 239,000 claims.
TL;DR
| Metric | Previous Week (Revised) | Week Ending August 26 | Change |
| Initial Unemployment Claims | 232,000 | 228,000 | Decrease of 4,000 |
| 4-Week Moving Average (Initial Claims) | 237,250 | 237,500 | Increase of 250 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate | Not provided | 1.2% | |
| Insured Unemployment (Number) | 1,697,000 | 1,725,000 | Increase of 28,000 |
| 4-Week Average (Insured Unemployment) | 1,704,000 | 1,704,250 | Increase of 250 |
8th September 2023
Friday
Friday
CAD – Unemployment Rate and Employment Change
Canada is set to release its employment change and unemployment rate on Friday, September 8th. Following the public revelation of this announcement, the currency pair is predicted to see severe volatility.
In July 2023, the Canadian economy saw a reduction of 6.4K jobs, contrasting with the preceding month's increase of 59.9K jobs and falling short of the anticipated 21.1K rise. The nation's unemployment rate climbed to 5.5%, catching markets off guard with the unexpected job cuts. Within various sectors, employment declines were observed in construction (-45,000), public administration (-17,000), information, culture & recreation (-16,000), and transportation & warehousing (-14,000). Simultaneously, growth occurred in health care and social assistance (+25,000), educational services (+19,000), finance, insurance, real estate, rental & leasing (+15,000), and agriculture (+12,000). Both full-time and part-time employment figures remained relatively stable. Alberta (+12,000), New Brunswick (+4,200), and Prince Edward Island (+1,500) witnessed employment gains, whereas Manitoba (-6,400) and Saskatchewan (-5,700) faced declines. Minimal fluctuations were noted in the other provinces.
Canada is set to release employment change and unemployment rate statistics on September 8th, 2023, at 1:30 PM GMT+1.
Forecast for the Canadian Employment Change is unavailable.
Forecast for the Canadian Unemployment Rate is reading a steady 5.5%.
TL;DR
| Metric/Region | Change in July 2023 |
| Total Canadian Economy | -6.4K (decrease) |
| Previous Month's Jobs | +59.9K (increase) |
| Expected Jobs Rise | +21.1K |
| National Unemployment Rate | 5.5% |
| Sectors with Declines | |
| Construction | -45,000 |
| Public Administration | -17,000 |
| Information, Culture & Recreation | -16,000 |
| Transportation & Warehousing | -14,000 |
| Sectors with Growth | |
| Health Care and Social Assistance | +25,000 |
| Educational Services | +19,000 |
| Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, Rental & Leasing | +15,000 |
| Agriculture | +12,000 |
| Employment Type | |
| Full-time Employment | Stable |
| Part-time Employment | Stable |
| Provinces with Employment Gains | |
| Alberta | +12,000 |
| New Brunswick | +4,200 |
| Prince Edward Island | +1,500 |
| Provinces with Employment Declines | |
| Manitoba | -6,400 |
| Saskatchewan | -5,700 |
9th September 2023
Saturday
Saturday
High-impact announcements are scheduled for Thursday, September 7, 2023. China will unveil its CPI y/y, Reserve Bank of Australia's Lowe will deliver a speech, and the US will release its Unemployment Claims data.
CNY – CPI y/y
Traders are interested because consumer prices have a significant influence in total inflation. Inflation is important for currency value because rising prices cause the central bank to respond by raising interest rates.
In July, China experienced a 0.3% year-on-year decline in consumer prices, marking the first decrease since February 2021, compared to an unchanged reading in June and market expectations of a 0.4% fall. The cost of food fell by 1.7%, following a 15-month period of rising prices, mainly due to a significant drop in pork prices. Meanwhile, non-food prices remained steady after a 0.6% decrease previously, with costs rising for clothing (1.0% vs. 0.9% in June), housing (0.1% vs. unchanged), health (1.2% vs. 1.1%), and education (2.4% vs. 1.5%). However, transport prices continued their decline (-4.7% vs. -6.5%). China's statistics agency stated that the decline in CPI would be temporary, projecting a gradual increase in inflation as the impact of a high base from the previous year fades. Core consumer prices, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, the most significant increase since January, following a 0.4% gain in June. On a monthly basis, consumer prices unexpectedly rose by 0.2%, surpassing forecasts of a 0.1% decrease and marking the first rise in 6 months.
The upcoming CPI y/y data is set to be released on September 7, 2023, at 02:30 AM GMT+1.
Forecast for Chinese CPI y/y is reading a decreased -0.4%.
TL;DR
| Metric | June | July | Change / Notes |
| Year-on-year Consumer Prices | Unchanged | -0.3% | First decrease since February 2021 |
| Food Prices | Rising | -1.7% | Significant drop in pork prices after 15 months of rising prices |
| Non-food Prices | -0.6% | Steady | |
| Clothing | 0.9% | 1.0% | Increase |
| Housing | Unchanged | 0.1% | Increase |
| Health | 1.1% | 1.2% | Increase |
| Education | 1.5% | 2.4% | Increase |
| Transport Prices | -6.5% | -4.7% | Continued decline, but less steep |
| Core Consumer Prices (excl. food & energy) | 0.4% | 0.8% | Most significant increase since January |
| Monthly Consumer Prices | 0.2% | Unexpected rise, first in 6 months, surpassing forecasts of a 0.1% decrease |
Disclaimer: The market news provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as trading advice.