7th April 2017 - Trump's reaction is still overwhelming the markets

Walid Salah Eldin

Master Trader
Feb 15, 2016
217
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Egypt
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The greenback has watched today volatility versus the major currency following the weaker than expected release of Mar US non-farm payrolls which have shown adding only 98k of jobs, while the consensus was referring to gaining 180k, after increasing by 235k in February had been revised down today to 219k.

In the same time, The US labor report of March has shown decreasing of the unemployment rate to 4.5% which has been its lowest since May 2007, while the market was waiting for no change to be at 4.7% as it has been in February.

The average earning per hour rose yearly by 2.7%, after rising by 2.8% in February show nor further acceleration of the wages inflationary pressure in March.

The US dollar has fallen across the broad following the release of this report but it has rebounded again to be where as it has been before it versus the Japanese yen at 110.70 and also EURUSD came back to be traded near 1.0645 following peaking at 1.0660.

But USDCAD has bounced up to 1.3380 only until now after falling to 1.3342 following this report which came accompanied with the release of March Canadian labor report which has shown adding 19.5k of jobs, while the consensus was pointing to adding only 5k, after increasing by 15.3k in February.

While the Gold is still boosted by Trump's military reaction to the Syrian government using of chemical weapons against civilians.

The markets are still evaluating the consequences which can result from this reaction, while most expectations are still referring to avoiding direct clashes between the US troops and the Russian troops in Syria anyway.

While Trump's reaction has been welcomed by EU, UK , Turkey, Persian gulf Arab countries and the Syrian opposition militias which are looking for longer hitting of the governmental targets.

Trump winning of the presidency in US on last Nov. 9 which has been read, as good for Gold " for his aggressive reactions" and bad of the US dollar "for his criticism of its value" has been materialized today with this reaction.

XAUUSD rose to $1336.33 per ounce following his winning of the presidency, before coming down to $1122.85 on the reflation optimism and the higher interest rate outlook in US.

Now The gold is above its daily SMA200, after surpassing its peak at $1263.83 which has been formed with meeting with this average on last Feb. 27.

The gold as well could contain the full falling from $1263.83 to $1195.80 with today higher momentum which pushed it up to $1270.50 until now.

The Gold is now in its seventeenth day of being above its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) which is reading today 1243.70, after forming a higher low at $1239.68 above its low at $1195.80 which has come after forming a higher bottom on last Jan. 27 at $1180.53 to come by its turn above its previously formed bottom on last Dec. 15 at $1122.85.

XAUUSD daily RSI-14 is referring now to existence inside the neutral region reading now 66.325.

XAUUSD daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is still having its main line in the neutral region at 73.439 leading to the upside its signal line which is at 72.333.

XAUUSD-07-04-2017 04-49-17 م.jpg

Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ $1234.16, Daily SMA100 @ $1205.17 and Daily SMA200 @ $1258.56

S&R:

S3: $1239.68

S2: $1195.80

S3: $1180.86

R1: $1292.87

R2: $1336.53

R3: $1345.50


Have a good day

Kind Regards

Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends

Walid Salah El Din