9th June 2017 - The political risks undermined the British pound

Walid Salah Eldin

Master Trader
Feb 15, 2016
217
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Egypt
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The parliamentary election could contain the market the sentiment by the weekend putting pressure on the cable after adding political risks to the Brexit negotiations.

As the elections ended to Conservative losing of 12 seats having only 318 seats, while the labor party could gain 31 seats raising its share to 261 seats.

Treresa May who was looking for stronger support in the Brexit negotiations is now exposed to have shorter time in office, after this election which is expected to direct the new government structure to diversity for having majority.

The pound has been dampened by this new mixed situation, before the Brexit negotiations which are now looking harder.

While the data which came out today from UK have shown lower than expected industrial and manufacturing productions in April.

FTSEE 100 could be boosted by this lower GBP exchange rate which is boosting the British exporters returns.

The sentiment in the European session was generally bullish, after yesterday ECB president Mario Draghi signaled yesterday that EU has not generated yet enough inflation to move The ECB, despite the current bullish economic outlook improving after EU GDP yearly growth by 1.9% in the first quarter of this year.

WTI could rebound to $45.85 per barrel, after falling to $45.19 on unexpected rising of US EIA crude oil inventory by 3.295m barrels to 513.207m in the week ending on Jun. 2, while the market was waiting for falling by 3.464m barrels.

UST 10YR rose by 0.02% more to 2.21% supporting the greenback which could be underpinned versus its rival for another session by the interest rate outlook differential amid rising odds of having another interest rate hiking when the FOMC to meet later on 13th and 14th of this month.

GBPUSD-09-06-2017 04-12-43 م.png

The cable came under increasing downside pressure, after forming lower high at 1.2976 below its formed peak at 1.3047 on last May. 18.

After watching today a downside gap, The Cable extended its slippage to 1.2636 before rebounding for trading currently near 1.2735 below its daily SMA50 but it's still above its daily SMA100 and its daily SMA200.

The cable is trading again below its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) which is reading 1.2976 today.

GBPUSD daily RSI-14 is referring now to existence in a lower place inside its neutral territory reading 38.659.

GBPUSD daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line inside its neutral region at 53.442 keeping its leading to the downside its signal line which is also in the neutral region at 72.087


Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 1.2804, Daily SMA100 @ 1.2617 and Daily SMA200 @ 1.2522

S&R:

S1: 1.2636

S2: 1.2364

S3: 1.2108

R1: 1.2976

R2: 1.3047

R3: 1.3118


Have a good day

Kind Regards

Global Market Strategist of FX-Recommends

Walid Salah El Din