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Market Analysis and Forecasts


December 3, 2025



British Pound (GBP/USD) Outlook:

• Key Fundamental Drivers: UK housing price rises, budget measures; Bank of England expected to cut rates cautiously; dollar under pressure from Fed cuts.
• Market Behavior: Trading sideways between 1.3210–1.3268; slight correction after reaching upper boundary.
• Support/Resistance: Support: 1.3210, 1.3156 | Resistance: 1.3268
• General Forecast: Neutral to bullish if 1.3210 holds; strong break below may trigger a sell-off to 1.3156.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


December 4, 2025



Euro (EUR/USD) Outlook:
Key Fundamental Drivers

• Pound boosted by strong UK services activity.
• Caution persists over financial-stability risks flagged by central bank.
• Dollar direction depends on incoming US labor and services data.

Market Behavior

• Buyers defended support zone, maintaining short-term upward momentum.
• No clear selling pressure unless US data surprises strongly.

Support & Resistance

• Support: 1.3218, 1.3156
• Resistance: 1.3268

General Forecast

• Moderate upward tilt while holding above support.
• Break above resistance may target higher levels; downside limited unless US data strengthens dollar.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


December 5, 2025



Euro (EUR/USD) Outlook:
Market Analysis

• Pound rises after firm services activity and softer U.S. dollar conditions.
• UK construction weakness tempers optimism, but BoE expected to proceed slowly with easing.
• Price stretched to the upside, awaiting pullback before stronger directional move.

General Forecast

• Potential correction lower before another attempt to test highs.
• Support: 1.3268 / 1.3218
• Resistance: 1.3365

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Weekly Economic Calendar


December 8 - 12, 2025



ECONOMIC FOCUS THIS WEEK
Monday — Dec 8

• Eurozone: Sentix investor confidence (December).
• Germany: Industrial production (m/m).
• Japan: Final Q3 GDP (q/q, annualized) and GDP deflator.
• Italy: Bank holiday (markets lighter).

Tuesday — Dec 9

• Market positioning ahead of the Fed — reduced liquidity, volatility risk.
• Various central banker speeches / panels through the week (watch BoE/ECB/BoJ comments).

Wednesday — Dec 10

• U.S. Federal Reserve policy decision (rate announcement) and Chair press briefing — primary market mover for USD and risk assets.

Thursday — Dec 11

• Follow-through from Fed decision: speeches, regional data and market reaction trades; country data windows still scheduled (check local releases).

Friday — Dec 12

• Residual data releases and market flow: scheduled economic releases across majors (USD, JPY, EUR) may keep volatility elevated as the week closes.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


December 9, 2025



British Pound (GBP/USD) Outlook:
Key Drivers

• Lack of UK data leaves pair driven by U.S. fundamentals.
• Bond yields stabilizing as markets anticipate rate cuts both in the UK and U.S.
• Pound remains resilient after strong performance last week.

Market Behavior

• Trading within a wide horizontal range.
• Buyers defending 1.3321, sellers resisting near upper boundaries.

Support & Resistance

• Support: 1.3321, 1.3268
• Resistance: 1.3372

General Forecast

• Bias remains slightly bullish while above 1.3321.
• Break below support signals deeper correction toward 1.3268.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


December 10, 2025



British Pound (GBP/USD) Outlook:

Key Drivers

• UK wage growth pressures BoE but rate cuts still expected.
• U.S. data (NFIB, ADP, JOLTS) likely to dictate direction intraday.
• Pound trading inside a tightening range.

Market Behavior

• Consolidation within 1.3315–1.3365 triangle; breakout needed for direction.
• Liquidity contracting, limiting volatility.

Support / Resistance

• Support: 1.3315, 1.3268
• Resistance: 1.3372

General Forecast

• Break above 1.3372 favors upward continuation.
• Break below 1.3315 signals renewed downside toward 1.3268.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


December 11, 2025



Euro (EUR/USD) Outlook:
Key Drivers

• Euro pressured by weak Italian data and broader eurozone concerns.
• Market awaiting Fed rate decision and Powell's guidance.
• Dollar supported by labor market strength but capped by expected rate cut.

Market Behavior

• Price holding near support as buyers attempt to stabilize.
• Risk sentiment remains fragile ahead of Fed comments.

Support / Resistance

• Support: 1.1617, 1.1590
• Resistance: 1.1656, 1.1728

General Forecast

• Mild upward correction possible if Fed signals a softer stance.
• Break below 1.1617 risks deeper decline toward 1.1590.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


December 12, 2025



Euro (EUR/USD) Outlook:

• Dollar softness after Fed rate cut keeps euro supported, aided by firmer Eurozone outlook and reduced political risks.
• Market awaits U.S. jobless claims and trade data for directional cues.
• Consolidation above key support suggests buyers remain in control.

General Forecast

• Mild bullish bias unless U.S. data surprises strongly.
• Pullbacks toward support expected to attract buying interest.

Support / Resistance

• Support: 1.1679, 1.1656
• Resistance: 1.1728

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Weekly Economic Calendar


December 15 - 19, 2025



ECONOMIC FOCUS THIS WEEK
Mon 15 Dec

• JPY — BOJ Tankan (manufacturing & non-manufacturing surveys).
• CNY — China: Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Fixed Asset Investment, unemployment, NBS press briefing.
• EUR — German WPI (wholesale prices).
• CHF — PPI and SECO economic forecasts.
• AUD — RBA commentary / speeches (selected officials).

Tue 16 Dec

• USD — BLS: Employment Situation (November nonfarm payrolls — includes delayed data), plus retail sales and PMI updates.
• CAD — Key Canadian data (CPI / housing starts / CPI components per local schedule).

Wed 17 Dec

• USD — Secondary U.S. labour releases and BLS catch-up items (state job openings / related datasets).
• EM / EU — assorted PMI prints, regional manuf. surveys and scheduled central-bank speakers.

Thu 18 Dec

• USD — BLS: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November (and Real Earnings release).
• GBP — Bank of England: MPC decision / summary & minutes (policy decision published).
• JPY / BOJ — BOJ policy meeting in progress (market focus on rate guidance).
• USD — weekly jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed mfg index and other U.S. indicators.

Fri 19 Dec

• USD / US — University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (final) and remaining catch-up releases; existing home sales and other monthly data close the week.
• BLS / US states — State employment & unemployment updates (BLS revised schedule).

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


December 16, 2025



Euro (EUR/USD) Outlook:

• Market tone: Sideways with mild bullish bias
• Drivers: ECB policy expectations, cautious USD strength, U.S. data risk
• Outlook: Buyers favored above key support; downside opens on breakdown
• Support: 1.1725 | 1.1680
• Resistance: 1.1758 | 1.1786

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