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Message: [QUOTE="VinsonFinancialsFX, post: 90644, member: 34988"] [CENTER][IMG]http://i58.tinypic.com/1ph2xc.jpg[/IMG][/CENTER] [B][SIZE=4][COLOR=#ff0000]Financial News October 14, 2015 [/COLOR][/SIZE][/B] [B]No USD strength without inflation[/B] Also the Fed Board member Daniel Tarullo has now revealed that he is one of the FOMC members who do not consider a rate hike before year-end to be appropriate. Before taking the step he wants to see tangible evidence that inflation is actually rising. He is likely to have the market on his side, as it too does clearly not believe in rising inflation. Otherwise it would also have to believe in rising interest rates. The next possibility to obtain tangible proof of rising inflation is the publication of the September inflation data tomorrow. "However, producer price data can give a sneak preview. A proper rise in prices is not expected before October when the fall of the oil price towards the end of last year is increasingly disappearing from the yoy comparison of inflation data", says Commerzbank. So for the time being it is simply going to be too early to provide the necessary proof for Tarullo and the FX market. While that is the case, a stronger USD will take a little longer, in particular as today's retail sales might also disappoint. Which will be due solely to falling petrol prices and not an easing of economic momentum. So longer term the reasons for a stronger dollar remain in place. [SIZE=4][COLOR=#ff0000][B]Market Review October 14, 2015 [/B][/COLOR][/SIZE] Inflation in the Euro zone might continue to hover around zero in the near term, but could increase towards the end of the year when the base effect falls out, Yves Mersch, a European Central Bank executive board member said on Tuesday. Furthermore, he added, “it is still too early to determine whether factors like slowing growth in emerging markets and a strong euro will affect the inflation target for the Eurozone” and “falling inflation will be a key trigger in any decision by the European Central Bank to beef up its economic stimulus package”. Moreover, Mr.Mersch said that the Eurozone has shown signs of resilience, but the macroeconomic environment has become "more challenging" and the ECB's recent forecasts indicate a weaker economic recovery and a slower rise in inflation rates and added that “ECB won't hesitate to use all available instruments to achieve the price target if necessary”. EUR/USD posted moderate gains yesterday to reach its highest level in more than three weeks, as currency traders continued to weigh whether the Federal Reserve could raise short-term interest rates at some point this year. The currency pair traded in a tight range between 1.1343 and 1.1411 before settling at 1.1400 area where is currently trading. Elsewhere, Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo said that "right now, my expectation is, given where I think the economy would go, I wouldn't expect it would be appropriate to raise rates", moreover, he said that “he wants to hasten to add that that is an outlook that changes based on developments in the economy." He also emphasized that "a premature rise might be harder to deal with than waiting a little bit longer." Gold rose yesterday, recovering an earlier 1.0% slide on expectations the Federal Reserve will not lift U.S. interest rates this year. Spot gold reached as high as $1174.57/per ounce and currently is trading near the 1173.20 area The key events for the day will be the United Kingdom Job Data, where Unemployment Rate is expected to remaining at 5.5% while Average Earnings Index is expected to rise 3.1%. Additional economic releases would be the United States Core Retail Sales, Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Eurozone Industrial Production. View our full economic calendar for a daily roundup of major economic events. [B]Data releases to monitor:[/B] GBP: Average Earnings Index, Claimant Count Change, Unemployment Rate. USD: Core Retail Sales, PPI, Retail Sales, Core PPI, Business Inventories, Beige Book. EUR: Industrial Production. CHF: ZEW Economic Expectations. [COLOR=#ff0000][B]Trade Idea of the Day USD/CAD[/B][/COLOR] Currently the pair is trading at 1.3000. Traders must monitor the 1.3133 resistance level and the support level of 1.2899 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards the 1.3044 resistance level where a break may lead to the 1.3082 area. An alternative scenario could be a movement towards the 1.2955 support level, where a break may lead to the 1.2910 area. [IMG]https://www.vinsonfinancials.com/images/daily-chart/2015/October/14OCT15USDCADH1.png[/IMG] [/QUOTE]

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