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Message: [QUOTE="VinsonFinancialsFX, post: 91258, member: 34988"] [CENTER][IMG]http://i58.tinypic.com/1ph2xc.jpg[/IMG][/CENTER] [B][SIZE=4][COLOR=#ff0000]Financial News October 28, 2015 [/COLOR][/SIZE][/B] [B]USD may trade firmer after Fed meetings[/B] The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members may have said time and again that they could hike rates at their October meeting, but the markets have not believed them. And with nobody expecting a rate hike today. The Fed certainly will not want to wrong-foot the markets in the current environment. However, it will have to become more explicit in its communications if it wants to hike rates at any time in the future. Nevertheless, it is unlikely that it will clearly signal a rate hike in December today, as doing so would undermine its mantra of "data-dependency". The USD exchange rate will depend on what the Fed statement says on the recently weaker data. "If the Fed believes that the US economy is still recovering nicely, the USD might trade somewhat firmer after the meeting, as the markets are currently overly cautious and predicting a rate hike only for March 2016. The Fed will certainly not sound even more pessimistic today. Rather, it might cautiously hint at approaching rate hikes. However, that will not be enough to justify EUR-USD to break out of its trading range of 1.08-1.15", says Commerzbank. [SIZE=4][COLOR=#ff0000][B]Market Review October 28, 2015 [/B][/COLOR][/SIZE] FOMC rate decision the main focus today and is widely expected that FED will keep policies unchanged. Nonetheless the big question is whether Fed will signal any chance in December. Some analysts believe that Fed will not hint anything since they need more time to clarify the recent slowdown in jobs data. Furthermore, assessment for inflation would likely remain unchanged. Analyst support this based on recent dovish comments from ECB, weakness in oil price and firmness in US stocks and they assume that USD will not affected by the FOMC statement. Last night AUD dropped after release of consumer inflation data. Headline CPI rose 0.5% q/q, 1.5% y/y in Q3, missing the estimation of 0.7% q/q and of 1.8% on y/y. The RBA trimmed mean CPI rose 0.3% qoq, 2.1% y/y, below expectation of 0.5% q/q, 2.4% y/y. RBA weighted median CPI rose 0.3% q/q, 2.2% y/y versus expectation of 0.5% q/q, 2.5% y/y. Analyst speculated that that RBA may cut interest rate next week since the largest retail banks in the country increase there rates. Also analysts supported this from current inflation reading and if not done in November, there is still a high chance for the central bank to lower interest rate during the next 3 months. Elsewhere, Germany released Gfk consumer sentiment at -0.7% missing the forecast of -0.2% we also have German 10 year bond auction later today. Later today US will release trade balance. RBNZ will announce rate decision and is expected to keep interest rate unchanged at 2.75% so traders must be aware for any different announcement that may cause volatility in the market. View our full economic calendar for a daily roundup of major economic events. [B]Data releases to monitor:[/B] USD: Goods Trade Balance, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Statement, Federal Funds Rate EUR: German 10-y Bond Auction NZD: Official Cash Rate, RBNZ Rate Statement [COLOR=#ff0000][B]Trade Idea of the Day EUR/CAD[/B][/COLOR] Currently the pair is trading at 1.4619. Traders must monitor the 1.4905 resistance level and the support level 1.4394 for possible breakouts. A possible scenario would be a movement towards 1.4952 support level where a break may lead to 1.4480 and possible to 1.4440 area. An alternative scenario could be a movement above 1.4675 and a testing of 1.4730 resistance level. [IMG]https://www.vinsonfinancials.com/images/daily-chart/2015/October/28oct2015eurcad.png[/IMG] [/QUOTE]

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