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Message: [QUOTE="PYX Markets London, post: 110904, member: 38730"] [b]Daily Market Outlook 3rd October [/b] [img]https://scontent-amt2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/13938553_118457278597764_4706199327588223406_n.jpg?oh=4cb4000aa052d5b9cf8c6e211c4ac665&oe=581DD5BC[/img] Asian shares got the new quarter off to a firm start on Monday, while sterling tumbled as Britain set a March deadline to start divorce proceedings from the European Union. Risk sentiment had benefited on Friday from reports Deutsche Bank was negotiating a much smaller fine with the U.S. Department of Justice, though the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday that the talks were still in flux. Japanese data showed confidence at big manufacturers was static in September amid a strong yen and sluggish demand at home and overseas. The mood was supported by a survey showing activity in China's manufacturing sector expanded again in September, which may indicate that recent positive momentum can be sustained. The official PMI stood at 50.4 in September, identical with the previous month's level. A reading above 50.0 shows growth on a monthly basis. Chinese markets are on holiday for the entire week. Sterling shed half a U.S. cent after British Prime Minister Theresa May said she would trigger the process for the UK to leave the European Union by the end of March. The pound was last quoted at $1.2931 having been down as far as $1.2902 at one point, its lowest since mid-August. May on Sunday told the ruling Conservative party's annual conference that she was determined to move on with the process and win the "right deal". Deutsche has significant trading relationships with all of the world's largest finance houses and the IMF has identified it as a bigger potential risk to the wider financial system than any other global bank. The dollar started off the week on a firmer footing on Monday as fears about Deutshe Bank receded and investors looked ahead to this week's U.S. jobs data, while sterling hit seven-week lows after Britain set a March deadline to begin its exit from the European Union. May on Sunday told the ruling Conservative party's annual conference that she was determined to move on with the process and win the "right deal". Risk sentiment benefited from news that Deutsche Bank was attempting to negotiate a much smaller fine with the U.S. Department of Justice, though no formal settlement has been announced yet. The DOJ fined Germany's largest bank $14 billion earlier in September for what it alleged were sales of toxic mortgage-backed securities. The Bank of Japan's quarterly tankan survey of business sentiment, released early on Monday, showed that Japan's large manufacturers expect the dollar to average 107.92 yen for the fiscal year through March 2017. According to Friday's data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Reuters calculations speculators boosted net longs on the U.S. dollar to their highest in six weeks in the week ended Sept. 27. A key focus for the dollar this week will be the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, which could cement expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve is on track to raise interest rates by the end of this year. Oil prices fell away from $50 per barrel on Monday despite an agreement last week by exporters to cut output, with traders doubting the step was enough to rein in production that has exceeded consumption for the better part of three years. The dips follow fresh production highs from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as rival members like Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq are reluctant to give away market share. OPEC's oil output is likely to reach 33.60 million bpd in September from a revised 33.53 million bpd in August, its highest in recent history, a Reuters survey found on Friday. The price falls came despite last week's agreement by OPEC members to cut output to between 32.5 million barrels per day (bpd) and 33.0 million bpd from about 33.5 million bpd, with details to be finalised at OPEC's policy meeting in November. Traders said there was more downside risk to oil prices if the planned cut wasn't deep enough to bring production back in line with consumption. "OPEC has created its own Q4 risk to oil prices ... In raising expectations of a November deal to cut production, it also risks a steep price decline should it fail to achieve its goal of cutting output back to less than 33 million bpd," Barclays said in a note to clients. Despite that, the British bank said it did not expect a repeat of the price crash seen late last year after a rally earlier in 2015. Trading activity will be limited on Monday as public holidays in China and Germany mean Asia's and Europe's biggest markets are shut. [/QUOTE]

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