Daily Technical Analysis Nov 03 09
EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD continued it’s indecisive movement yesterday. On my daily chart below we can see that the pair still struggling around the trendline support area. Basically, the trendline support remains my key technical focus at this phase and a strong support area to prevent further downside pressure which keep the bullish scenario intact. I think I will keep out from the market until I have a clear and convincing movement, below or above the trendline. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.4850. Break above that area could make this pair vulnerable for further upside pressure re-testing 1.4950 – 1.5060 area. Initial support at 1.4700 – 1.4680 area. Break below that area should trigger further weakness for the Euro.
On fundamental side, we will have some key economic numbers this week as US (tomorrow) and Europe (Thursday) are going to announce interest rate and US NFP on Friday. I am expecting these fundamental events to be the market movers to take us out from this choppy market. I feel this week is going to be a very important week as what happen here might have a bigger impact on longer term outlook, whether we will continue the bullish scenario towards 1.5300 or back towards 1.4450 area.
GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD made indecisive movement yesterday, formed a Doji on daily chart. On my daily chart below we can see that the upper line of the bearish channel provides good support area preventing further downside pressure but the upside momentum was also limited. I will keep out for now and wait for further development as we are going to have some important fundamental numbers this week. US is going to announce it’s interest rate tomorrow, while UK on Thursday. UK’s HPI and PMI number tomorrow and US NFP on Friday are also expected to give us clearer technical direction in longer outlook, whether we are going to continue the bullish towards 1.7042 or back towards 1.6000 area. Immediate resistance remains at 1.6488 and initial support at 1.6320 and the upper line of the bearish channel.
USDJPY Outlook
Like I said yesterday, the CCI gave us valid signal about potential upside rebound as the pair corrected to the upside, topped at 90.68, closed at 90.39 and now traded around 90.40 at the time I wrote this comment. I still consider this rebound as a normal movement and as long as the pair stay below the bullish channel, I still prefer a bearish scenario. On my h4 chart below we have a minor trendline resistance (yellow) that might be our key resistance at this phase. I will be watching any reactions around that trendline and 90.50 area before make any decisions today. Consistent move above that area should trigger further bullish momentum towards the bullish channel and could be a serious threat to the bearish outlook. Immediate support at 89.88 followed by 89.50 area.
USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF still trapped in a range area of 1.0280 – 1.0166 as you can see in my h4 chart below. I will keep out from the market for now and wait for some key fundamental events this week, US interest rate tomorrow and NFP on Friday which expected to be the market mover to break from this range area. The ECB also going to announce it’s interest rate on Thursday, so it’s going to be a busy week. A breakout should continue bullish correction towards 1.0380 even 1.0450 area while a breakdown should lead us back to the downside re-testing 1.0040/00 psychological level.
EURJPY Outlook
The EURJPY was technically a mess yesterday. After break below the minor trendline on Friday, the pair now retreat above the trendline and struggle around that area. I think we are in no trading zone right now and I will stay our from the market. We will have some important fundamental numbers this week, so market volatility and technical failures shouldn’t be a big surprise. If price able to keep moving above the trendline, then what happened on Friday is considered as a false breakdown which usually lead to significant bullish momentum re-testing 138.68 area. Immediate support at 133.00. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum re-testing 131.50 area.
GBPJPY Outlook
The GBPUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 148.91 and closed a little bit lower at 148.25. Although the trendline support (blue) still provide good support preventing further bearish attack, the bearish pressure can not be said over yet. My technical study detect a potential battle between the trendline support on the downside with trendline resistance (red) on the upside. Break on either side should give us clearer direction. I will keep out from the market for now. Immediate resistance at 148.91 (yesterday’s high). Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum testing the trendline resistance area. Initial support at 147.50. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum towards 146.70 area.
AUDUSD Outlook
We had a volatile market yesterday. The pair attempted to push higher, topped at 0.9120 but failed to close above 0.9090 indicating limited and unconvincing bullish momentum. The trendline resistance (blue) remains my technical focus at this phase. As long as the pair stay below it, I still prefer a bearish scenario. However, a break above the trendline resistance should trigger further bullish momentum and continue the bullish movement towards 0.9300 area. Immediate support at 0.9025. Break below that area should trigger further bearish pressure re-testing 0.8950 area.
EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD continued it’s indecisive movement yesterday. On my daily chart below we can see that the pair still struggling around the trendline support area. Basically, the trendline support remains my key technical focus at this phase and a strong support area to prevent further downside pressure which keep the bullish scenario intact. I think I will keep out from the market until I have a clear and convincing movement, below or above the trendline. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.4850. Break above that area could make this pair vulnerable for further upside pressure re-testing 1.4950 – 1.5060 area. Initial support at 1.4700 – 1.4680 area. Break below that area should trigger further weakness for the Euro.
On fundamental side, we will have some key economic numbers this week as US (tomorrow) and Europe (Thursday) are going to announce interest rate and US NFP on Friday. I am expecting these fundamental events to be the market movers to take us out from this choppy market. I feel this week is going to be a very important week as what happen here might have a bigger impact on longer term outlook, whether we will continue the bullish scenario towards 1.5300 or back towards 1.4450 area.
GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD made indecisive movement yesterday, formed a Doji on daily chart. On my daily chart below we can see that the upper line of the bearish channel provides good support area preventing further downside pressure but the upside momentum was also limited. I will keep out for now and wait for further development as we are going to have some important fundamental numbers this week. US is going to announce it’s interest rate tomorrow, while UK on Thursday. UK’s HPI and PMI number tomorrow and US NFP on Friday are also expected to give us clearer technical direction in longer outlook, whether we are going to continue the bullish towards 1.7042 or back towards 1.6000 area. Immediate resistance remains at 1.6488 and initial support at 1.6320 and the upper line of the bearish channel.
USDJPY Outlook
Like I said yesterday, the CCI gave us valid signal about potential upside rebound as the pair corrected to the upside, topped at 90.68, closed at 90.39 and now traded around 90.40 at the time I wrote this comment. I still consider this rebound as a normal movement and as long as the pair stay below the bullish channel, I still prefer a bearish scenario. On my h4 chart below we have a minor trendline resistance (yellow) that might be our key resistance at this phase. I will be watching any reactions around that trendline and 90.50 area before make any decisions today. Consistent move above that area should trigger further bullish momentum towards the bullish channel and could be a serious threat to the bearish outlook. Immediate support at 89.88 followed by 89.50 area.
USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF still trapped in a range area of 1.0280 – 1.0166 as you can see in my h4 chart below. I will keep out from the market for now and wait for some key fundamental events this week, US interest rate tomorrow and NFP on Friday which expected to be the market mover to break from this range area. The ECB also going to announce it’s interest rate on Thursday, so it’s going to be a busy week. A breakout should continue bullish correction towards 1.0380 even 1.0450 area while a breakdown should lead us back to the downside re-testing 1.0040/00 psychological level.
EURJPY Outlook
The EURJPY was technically a mess yesterday. After break below the minor trendline on Friday, the pair now retreat above the trendline and struggle around that area. I think we are in no trading zone right now and I will stay our from the market. We will have some important fundamental numbers this week, so market volatility and technical failures shouldn’t be a big surprise. If price able to keep moving above the trendline, then what happened on Friday is considered as a false breakdown which usually lead to significant bullish momentum re-testing 138.68 area. Immediate support at 133.00. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum re-testing 131.50 area.
GBPJPY Outlook
The GBPUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 148.91 and closed a little bit lower at 148.25. Although the trendline support (blue) still provide good support preventing further bearish attack, the bearish pressure can not be said over yet. My technical study detect a potential battle between the trendline support on the downside with trendline resistance (red) on the upside. Break on either side should give us clearer direction. I will keep out from the market for now. Immediate resistance at 148.91 (yesterday’s high). Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum testing the trendline resistance area. Initial support at 147.50. Break below that area could trigger further bearish momentum towards 146.70 area.
AUDUSD Outlook
We had a volatile market yesterday. The pair attempted to push higher, topped at 0.9120 but failed to close above 0.9090 indicating limited and unconvincing bullish momentum. The trendline resistance (blue) remains my technical focus at this phase. As long as the pair stay below it, I still prefer a bearish scenario. However, a break above the trendline resistance should trigger further bullish momentum and continue the bullish movement towards 0.9300 area. Immediate support at 0.9025. Break below that area should trigger further bearish pressure re-testing 0.8950 area.
