Dollar Index (DXY)

[MDunleavy]

Reminder
==========
The U.S. Dollar Index® is computed using a trade-weighted geometric average of six currencies. The six currencies and their trade weights are: Euro 57.6 % Japan/yen 13.6 % UK/pound 11.9 % Canada/dollar 9.1 % Sweden/krona 4.2 % Switzerland/franc 3.6 %.
==========
Dollar index's strong break of 81.34 resistance confirms that whole medium term rise from 74.19 has resumed and should now be targeting 61.8% projection of 76.60 to 81.34 from 79.51 at 82.43 next. Meanwhile, in case of retreat, dollar index should be contained by 80.55 support and bring rally resumption.

"P&F _DY1440 Box Size1 250X3 or(4.17%) CLOSE
Data 108.69 - 71.36 ~ 93 Month ~ 2834 Day
Database 2000 records 81.85 (Last Close)
2002-06-21 00~00
2010-03-25 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"

108.75|~125|______________________________|-0.06%|52.4%
107.50|~25O|_X_X__________________________|1.09%|50.64%
106.25|~375|oXoXo_________________________|2.24%|48.89%
105.00|~5OO|o_oXo_________________________|3.39%|47.14%
103.75|~625|__o_o_________________________|4.55%|45.39%
102.50|~75O|____o_________________________|5.7%|43.64%
101.25|~875|____oX________________________|6.85%|41.89%
100.0|~1OOO|____oXo_______________________|8%|40.13%
98.75|~1125|____oXoX______________________|9.15%|38.38%
97.50|~125O|____o_oXo_____________________|10.3%|36.63%
96.25|~1375|______oXo_____________________|11.45%|34.88%
95.00|~15OO|______oXo_____________________|12.6%|33.13%
93.75|~1625|______oXo_____________________|13.75%|31.38%
92.50|~175O|______oXo_____________________|14.9%|29.62%
91.25|~1875|______o_oX_____X______________|16.05%|27.87%
90.00|~2OOO|________oXo__X_Xo_____________|17.2%|26.12%
88.75|~2125|========oXo==XoXo========X====|18.35%|24.37%
87.50|~225O|________oXo__XoXo______X_Xo___|19.5%|22.62%
86.25|~2375|________oXo__Xo_o______XoXoX__|20.65%|20.87%
85.00|~25OO|________oXoX_X__oX_____XoXoXo_|21.8%|19.11%
83.75|~2625|________o_oXoX__oXo____XoXoXo_|22.95%|17.36%
82.50|~275O|__________oXoX__oXo____XoXo_o_|24.1%|15.61%
81.25|~2875|==========oXo===o=o====XoX==oX|25.25%|13.86%
80.00|~3OOO|__________o_______o__X_XoX__oX|26.4%|12.11%
78.75|~3125|__________________o__XoXo___oX|27.55%|10.36%
77.50|~325O|__________________oX_XoX____oX|28.7%|8.6%
76.25|~3375|__________________oXoXoX____oX|29.85%|6.85%
75.00|~35OO|__________________oXoXo_____oX|31%|5.1%
73.75|~3625|==================o=oX======o=|32.15%|3.35%
72.50|~375O|____________________oX________|33.3%|1.6%
71.25|~3875|____________________o_________|34.45%|-0.15%
Column||||||223383861694373483935741785316|
Count|||||||________2________

 

[MDunleavy]

Commodity were hit hard with crude oil down to close at 83.24 while gold closed at 1136.9. Dollar managed to recover earlier losses against major currencies. While the sharp reversal in dollar pairs and yen crosses worth mentioning, it must be noted that the moves were not enough to confirm reversal in recent decline in the neither currencies yet. For example, the dollar index, which closed the week at 80.77, is still way off recent high of 82.24. Follow through selling in stocks and commodities is needed to push dollar and yen through near term resistance to confirm reversal.

"P&F _DY1440 Box Size1 30X2 or(2.89%) HI/LO
Data 109.24 - 70.7 ~ 93 Month ~ 2832 Day
Database 2000 records 80.77 (Last Close)
2002-07-15 00~00
2010-04-16 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"



BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart

 

[Jana Jackson]

Nice analysis...

 

[MDunleavy]

US Dollar Index (DXY)
The US Dollar Index is retracing to test short-term support at 85 after breaking out of its
trend channel. Failure would signal the end of the rally and a test of the lower trend channel.
Upward breakout remains as likely, however, and would offer a short-term target of 90.00

"P&F _DXY1440 Box Size 120X3 or(4%) HI/LO
Data 109.24 - 70.7 ~ 94 Month ~ 2834 Day
Database 2000 records 86.49 (Last Close)
2002-08-30 00~00
2010-06-03 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

109.2|~12O||__x_+___________________________________________|0.04%|54.46%
108.0|~24O||__x_o_+_________________________________________|1.14%|52.76%
106.8|~36O||__x_o___+_______________________________________|2.23%|51.06%
105.6|~48O||o___o_____+_____________________________________|3.33%|49.36%
104.4|~6OO||o___o_______+___________________________________|4.43%|47.67%
103.2|~72O||____o_________+_________________________________|5.53%|45.97%
102.0|~84O||____o_x_________+_______________________________|6.63%|44.27%
100.8|~96O||____o_x_o_________+_____________________________|7.73%|42.57%
99.60|~1O8O|____o_x_o___________+___________________________|8.82%|40.88%
98.40|~12OO|____o___o_x___________+_________________________|9.92%|39.18%
97.20|~132O|________o_x_o___________+_______________________|11.02%|37.48%
96.00|~144O|________o_x_o_____________+_____________________|12.12%|35.79%
94.80|~156O|________o_x_o_______________+___________________|13.22%|34.09%
93.60|~168O|________o_x_o_________________+_________________|14.32%|32.39%
92.40|~18OO|________o___o_____________x_____+_______________|15.42%|30.69%
91.20|~192O|____________o_x___________x_o_____+_____________|16.51%|29%
90.00|~2O4O|____________o_x_o_____x___x_o_______+___________|17.61%|27.3%
88.80|~216O|____________o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_________x_________|18.71%|25.6%
87.60|~228O|____________o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_x___x___x_o_____+_|19.81%|23.9%
86.40|~24OO|____________o_x_o_____x_o___o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x___x_|20.91%|22.21%
85.20|~252O|____________o___o_x___x___+_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_|22.01%|20.51%
84.00|~264O|________________o_x_o_x_+___o_x_o___o_x_o_x_o_x_|23.11%|18.81%
82.80|~276O|________________o_x_o_x_____o_x_____o_x_o___o_x_|24.2%|17.11%
81.60|~288O|________________o_x_o_______o_x_____o_x_____o_x_|25.3%|15.42%
80.40|~3OOO|________________o_+_________o_x_____o_x_____o_x_|26.4%|13.72%
79.20|~312O|________________+___________o_x_____o_x_____o_x_|27.5%|12.02%
78.00|~324O|____________________________o_x_____o_____+_o_x_|28.6%|10.33%
76.80|~336O|____________________________o_x_________+___o_x_|29.7%|8.63%
75.60|~348O|____________________________o_x_______+_____o_x_|30.79%|6.93%
74.40|~36OO|____________________________o_x_____+_______o_+_|31.89%|5.23%
73.20|~372O|____________________________o_x___+_________+___|32.99%|3.54%
72.00|~384O|____________________________o_x_+_______________|34.09%|1.84%
70.80|~396O|____________________________o_+_________________|35.19%|0.14%
69.60|~4O8O|____________________________+___________________|36.29%|-1.56%
Column||||||2_3_9_3_8_5_1_5_9_4_3_7_3_5_1_1_3_3_8_9_5_3_1_1_|
Count|||||||____________1_______________8_4________

 

[MDunleavy]

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index is undergoing a correction. Breakout below the rising trendline would warn that the primary up-trend is weakening — as would a Twiggs Momentum peak below the zero line. Recovery above the descending trendline, however, would suggest another test of 89.[incrediblecharts.com]
But I think so.See figure.

"P&F _DXY10080 Box Size1 50X3 or(4.71%) HI/LO
Data 120.51 - 70.7 ~ 210 Month ~ 6377 Day
Database 912 records 84.34 (Last Close)
1993-01-24 00~00
2010-07-11 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

121.50|~15O|____________________________________+___________________________|-0.82%|71.85%
120.00|~3OO|________________________________x___x_+_________________________|0.42%|69.73%
118.50|~45O|____________________________x___x_o_x_o_+_______________________|1.67%|67.61%
117.00|~6OO|____________________________x_o_x_o_x_o___+_____________________|2.91%|65.49%
115.50|~75O|____________________________x_o_x_o_x_o_____+___________________|4.16%|63.37%
114.00|~9OO|____________________________x_o_x_o_x_o_______+_________________|5.4%|61.24%
112.5|~1O5O|____________________________x_o_x_o___o_________+_______________|6.65%|59.12%
111.0|~12OO|________________________x___x_o_x_____o___________+_____________|7.89%|57%
109.5|~135O|________________________x_o_x_o_______o_____________+___________|9.14%|54.88%
108.0|~15OO|________________________x_o_x_________o_______________+_________|10.38%|52.76%
106.5|~165O|________________________x_o___________o_________________+_______|11.63%|50.64%
105.0|~18OO|________________________x_____________o___________________+_____|12.87%|48.51%
103.5|~195O|____________________x___x_____________o_____________________+___|14.12%|46.39%
102.0|~21OO|________________x___x_o_x_____________o_______________________+_|15.36%|44.27%
100.5|~225O|____________x___x_o_x_o_x_____________o_________________________|16.6%|42.15%
99.00|~24OO|____________x_o_x_o_x_o_x___________+_o_x_______________________|17.85%|40.03%
97.50|~255O|____________x_o_x_o_x_o___________+___o_x_o_____________________|19.09%|37.91%
96.00|~27OO|____x_______x_o___o_x___________+_____o_x_o_____________________|20.34%|35.79%
94.50|~285O|x___x_o_____x_____o_x_________+_______o_x_o_____________________|21.58%|33.66%
93.00|~3OOO|x_o_x_o_____x_____o_________+_________o___o_____________________|22.83%|31.54%
91.50|~315O|__o_x_o_____x_____________+_______________o_x___x_______________|24.07%|29.42%
90.00|~33OO|__o_x_o_x___x___________+_________________o_x_o_x_o_____________|25.32%|27.3%
88.50|~345O|__o___o_x_o_x_________+___________________o_x_o_x_o_____x___x___|26.56%|25.18%
87.00|~36OO|______o_x_o_x_______+_____________________o_x_o_x_o_x___x_o_x_o_|27.81%|23.06%
85.50|~375O|______o___o_x_____+_______________________o___o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|29.05%|20.93%
84.00|~39OO|__________o_x___+_____________________________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|30.3%|18.81%
82.50|~4O5O|__________o_x_+_______________________________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x___|31.54%|16.69%
81.00|~42OO|__________o_+_________________________________o___o_x_o_x_o_x___|32.79%|14.57%
79.50|~435O|__________+_______________________________________o_x_o_x_o_x___|34.03%|12.45%
78.00|~45OO|__________________________________________________o_x_o___o_x___|35.28%|10.33%
76.50|~465O|__________________________________________________o_x_____o_x_+_|36.52%|8.2%
75.00|~48OO|__________________________________________________o_x_____o_+___|37.76%|6.08%
73.50|~495O|__________________________________________________o_x_____+_____|39.01%|3.96%
72.00|~51OO|__________________________________________________o_____________|40.25%|1.84%
70.50|~525O|________________________________________________________________|41.5%|-0.28%
Column||||||2_4_5_7_3_6_1_3_4_6_7_4_9_3_8_6_7_5_5_1_4_9_4_7_7_1_1_6_7_9_9_3_|
Count|||||||____________3_________________________8___________3_O________

 

[MDunleavy]

Dollar index has best week in nearly 2 years.
Aug 13 (Reuters) - The dollar on Friday marked its best week against a basket of major
currencies in nearly two years, as worries about the strength of the global economy fed short-
covering and safe-haven demand for the greenback.

The dollar index .DXY, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, rose 3.2
percent this week to 82.943. That was the biggest weekly gain since it rose nearly 5 percent in
the week ended Oct. 26, 2008.

Worries that a slower U.S. economy could cause headwinds for global growth led investors to
sell risky assets and buy dollars as a safe-haven play, traders said

The US Dollar Index rallied off support at 80. Penetration of the descending trendline
indicates that the down-trend is weakening.

"P&F _DXY10080 Box Size20X3 or(6.28%) HI/LO
Data 120.51 - 70.7 ~ 211 Month ~ 6405 Day
Database 916 records 82.92 (Last Close)
1993-01-24 00~00
2010-08-08 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

120.0|~2OO||__________________o_x_+_____________________|0.42%|69.73%
118.0|~4OO||____________x___x_o_x_o_+___________________|2.08%|66.9%
116.0|~6OO||____________x_o_x_o_x_o___+_________________|3.74%|64.07%
114.0|~8OO||____________x_o_x_o_x_o_____+_______________|5.4%|61.24%
112.0|~1OOO|____________x_o_x_o___o_______+_____________|7.06%|58.42%
110.0|~12OO|____________x_o_______o_________+___________|8.72%|55.59%
108.0|~14OO|____________x_________o___________+_________|10.38%|52.76%
106.0|~16OO|____________x_________o_____________+_______|12.04%|49.93%
104.0|~18OO|________x___x_________o_______________+_____|13.7%|47.1%
102.0|~2OOO|____x___x_o_x_________o_________________+___|15.36%|44.27%
100.0|~22OO|____x_o_x_o_x_________o___________________+_|17.02%|41.44%
98.00|~24OO|____x_o_x_o_________+_o_x___________________|18.68%|38.61%
96.00|~26OO|x___x_o_x_________+___o_x_o_________________|20.34%|35.79%
94.00|~28OO|x_o_x_o_x_______+_____o_x_o_________________|22%|32.96%
92.00|~3OOO|x_o_x_o_______+_______o___o_x_______________|23.66%|30.13%
90.00|~32OO|x_o_x_______+_____________o_x_o_____________|25.32%|27.3%
88.00|~34OO|__o_x_____+_______________o_x_o_x___x___x___|26.98%|24.47%
86.00|~36OO|__o_x___+_________________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|28.64%|21.64%
84.00|~38OO|__o_x_+___________________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|30.3%|18.81%
82.00|~4OOO|__o_+_____________________o___o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|31.96%|15.98%
80.00|~42OO|__+___________________________o_x_o_x_o_x___|33.62%|13.15%
78.00|~44OO|______________________________o_x_o___o_x_+_|35.28%|10.33%
76.00|~46OO|______________________________o_x___+_o_+___|36.93%|7.5%
74.00|~48OO|______________________________o_x_+___+_____|38.59%|4.67%
72.00|~5OOO|______________________________o_+___________|40.25%|1.84%
70.00|~52OO|______________________________+_____________|41.91%|-0.99%
Column||||||4_7_1_5_6_3_1_4_4_5_4_1_3_8_5_1_8_5_5_6_6_3_|
Count|||||||____O_______O_________4_______O________

 

[MDunleavy]

"P&F _DXY10080 Box Size 170X3 or(5.33%) HI/LO
Data 120.51 - 70.7 ~ 221.19 Month ~ 6503 Day
Database 930 records 78.48 (Last Close)
1993-01-24 00~00
2010-11-14 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

120.7|~17O||________________________+___+___________________________|-0.16%|70.72%
119.0|~34O||____________________+___x_o_x_+_________________________|1.25%|68.32%
117.3|~51O||____________________x_+_x_o_x_o_+_______________________|2.66%|65.91%
115.6|~68O||____________________x_o_x_o_x_o___+_____________________|4.07%|63.51%
113.9|~85O||____________________x_o_x_o_x_o_____+___________________|5.49%|61.1%
112.2|~1O2O|____________________x_o_x_o___o_______+_________________|6.9%|58.7%
110.5|~119O|____________________x_o_x_____o_________+_______________|8.31%|56.29%
108.8|~136O|____________________x_o_______o___________+_____________|9.72%|53.89%
107.1|~153O|____________________x_________o_____________+___________|11.13%|51.49%
105.4|~17OO|________________+___x_________o_______________+_________|12.54%|49.08%
103.7|~187O|____________+___x_+_x_________o_________________+_______|13.95%|46.68%
102.0|~2O4O|________+___x_+_x_o_x_________o___________________+_____|15.36%|44.27%
100.3|~221O|________x_+_x_o_x_o_x_________o_____________________+___|16.77%|41.87%
98.60|~238O|____+___x_o_x_o_x_o_________+_o_x_____________________+_|18.18%|39.46%
96.90|~255O|____x_+_x_o_x_o_x_________+___o_x_o_____________________|19.59%|37.06%
95.20|~272O|+___x_o_x_o___o_x_______+_____o_x_o_____________________|21%|34.65%
93.50|~289O|x_+_x_o_x_____o_______+_______o_+_o_____________________|22.41%|32.25%
91.80|~3O6O|__o_x_o_x___________+_________+___o_x___x_______________|23.82%|29.84%
90.10|~323O|__o_x_o_x_________+_______________o_x_o_x_o_____________|25.23%|27.44%
88.40|~34OO|__o_+_o_x_______+_________________o_x_o_x_o_x___x___x___|26.65%|25.04%
86.70|~357O|__+___o_x_____+___________________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|28.06%|22.63%
85.00|~374O|______o_x___+_____________________o_+_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|29.47%|20.23%
83.30|~391O|______o_x_+_______________________+___o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|30.88%|17.82%
81.60|~4O8O|______o_+_____________________________o_+_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|32.29%|15.42%
79.90|~425O|______+_______________________________+___o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|33.7%|13.01%
78.20|~442O|==========================================o=x=o===o=x=o=X35.11%|10.61%
76.50|~459O|__________________________________________o_x_____o_x_o_|36.52%|8.2%
74.80|~476O|__________________________________________o_x___+_o_+___|37.93%|5.8%
73.10|~493O|__________________________________________o_x_+___+_____|39.34%|3.39%
71.40|~51OO|__________________________________________o_+___________|40.75%|0.99%
69.70|~527O|__________________________________________+_____________|42.16%|-1.41%
Column||||||1_3_5_9_1_3_4_5_6_3_1_5_6_5_4_1_3_8_4_6_6_1_1_6_6_8_8_7_|
Count|||||||________1___________1_________5___________2_O________