EUR/USD

[ddukic]

EUR/USD 20/09/2012 - 4h and 60min Chart Analysis

EUR/USD 60min Chart

COMMENTS: The chart you observe is a blowup of the 60min chart I have posting since many days now. This chart is zeroing on the last few 60min trading as of the beginning of trading during last Sunday. As you can observe the parity moved within the d1-d2 channel and continues doing it. This right moment the 200SMA is set at 1,29706usd a level indicating the very next supporting level. Although the 60min chart is of short time frame, the 200SMA is always a level to consider. In addition to the 200SMA you must consider the 3.23 Fib grade-level that will enhance the supportive action of this area in general. So, a reaction must be expected. In case the parity “slips” through this level and the red channel d1-d2 surrenders there is a considerable fall to follow up to the 2.618 Fib grade-level.
SUGGESTIONS: The parity is compressed between the two SMAs. By the books, the 200SMA is stronger therefore: Please wait until the parity reaches around the 1,29446usd level to open positions on both directions. Keeping this level as trading pivot, you should set the relative stop loss levels for the long and short positions, respectively. The short positions already running must reduce exposure as the parity approaches the 1,29466 level. Good luck !!

EUR/USD – 4 HOURS CHART

COMMENTS: The same supporting level described in the 60min chart is presented here too by the brown horizontal line indicating a strong level for which we discussed in previous days. By the manuals: “supports and resistances change identity into the exact opposite, once “broken” the first time”. So, on the way up the brown horizontal line was a resistance while now, on the way down, it is “transformed” in support. Technically, the described level includes too many supporting elements thus it would sound logical to forecast, at least, a delay in the evolution of the eventual further fall of the parity. Otherwise, the positive reaction of the up to now correction will “push” the parity to its next upward target of the4.25 Fib grade-level.

SUGGESTIONS: In combination with the suggestions given with the 60min chart, you can appreciate a larger picture view in order to sustain for longer time your successful positions.

 

[ddukic]

EUR/USD 28/09/2012 - Daily and 4h Chart Analysis and Review

EUR/USD 28/09/2012 - Daily and 4h Chart Analysis and Review

EUR/USD 4 HOURS & DAILY CHART

COMMENTS: Today, I post two EUR/USD charts together in order to show you how you should exploit the charts of different time frames. The obstacle that supported until this moment the correction that was developing is the 200SMA of the Daily Chart. As we said previously, higher time frame charts give stronger indications and thus should be respected more against findings from lower time frame charts. The second reason for the small rebound during yesterday’s end of trading is due to the 0.25 Fibo grade on the 4 hours chart. Both elements combined constitute a strong support. In case the parity will break this level we will see significantly lower parity’s levels, because of the downwards pressure that will be needed. Once the level broken, just by inertia the parity will continue further below. We have repeatedly warned about the congestion of various technical supporting elements of the brown horizontal line as shown in the chart of 4 hours.

SUGGESTIONS: The pivot to consider is the 200SMA on the Daily chart. For as long as the parity remains above the 200SMA we will be moving in a “long” environment, therefore, we keep the long positions opened, eventually with a small decrease of the long exposure. In case the parity returns above the previous local high we increase the “long” exposure aiming to targets up to 1,38 level. Observe in the 4 hours chart how fast the Stochastic (14,1,3) “climbed” to the overbought area. The ascension speed indicates a conspicuous buying action from the buyers. Stop loss of the long positions the level below the 200SMA of the Daily Chart. This level will also constitute the one to initiate short positions with stop loss just above the same 200SMA.

 

[ddukic]

EUR/USD 01/10/2012 - Daily, 4h and 1h Chart Analysis

EUR/USD 01/10/2012 - Daily, 4h and 1h Chart Analysis

COMMENTS: This parity stayed too long supported by the 200SMA on the Daily chart here above (right side). In the middle chart, the one of 4 hours this parity was supported too, although by a different set up that we cannot observe in the daily chart that shows fewer details than the chart of 4 hours. In the chart of 60minutes (left side) the parity already reacted moving higher. Obviously, we will follow the evolution of the parity within the 60 minutes chart and progressively we will evaluate its path in the next higher time frame chart.

SUGGESTIONS: In general we are still in a “short” terms environment. The small reaction presented in the 60 min chart may constitute the beginning of a stronger up move nevertheless there is nothing to demonstrate it at this time, unless someone may have a “vision”. So, we still keep the short positions running although we are a little scared about the supporting strength shown by the underlying parity’s level. I suggest you get covered. Either reduce short exposure or close the short positions. Having intact capitals allow you to trade at any time. The non capitals are bad new. So protecting your capital is your foremost care. A first indication of a new up correction would be the up breaking of the d1-d2 red down channel of the 60 min chart. Guys, keep calm. We may be running an important pivot in the EUR/USD parity. Keep y0ur alert level high.

4h Chart

http://fxlisting.net/images/eurusd240-01102012.jpg

60min Chart

 

[ddukic]

EUR/USD 02/10/2012 - 4h and 1h Chart Analysis and Review

EUR/USD 02/10/2012 - 4h and 1h Chart Analysis and Review

EUR/USD 4h Chart Review

COMMENTS: Here too there is no significant change since the starting of trading sessions the night of last Sunday. As already mentioned, Monday’s trading is often explorative therefore no major activities or changes are usually observed. In details, traders tried to exceed twice the 50SMA just to fill their obligation to trade a certain amount per day. Nothing more. Nevertheless, there is a buildup of peculiar set up. Two strong opposite areas, graphically speaking, are confronted having the brown horizontal line as buffer.
SUGGESTIONS: Today, I will simplify my opinion to the much needed elements. So, above the brown horizontal line you go long. Below, you stay short. Obviously, the same brown line is used as stop loss limit for the contradicting long and short positions.

EUR/USD 60 MIN

COMMENTS: We often repeat that all type of moves are born young (as a small swing in the beginning) and grow as the time goes on. Here, at the chart of the 60mins on the EUR/USD pair we have an example. At he utmost right side of the chart there is a possible “head and shoulders” formation being built up. In addition, at this right moment the parity is trying to exceed the 200SMA being at the same time compressed by the 50SMA that is acting as support from below. Hey, don’t you think that an “explosion” will be observed in a while? Of course.

SUGGESTIONS: Unfortunately this analysis will reach you after the “explosion”. By the time is uploaded and you visit it will take some hours. At that time you will observe the consequences of it. Anyway, just for demonstration I would like you to observe this 60min chart on EUR/USD and try to study the aftermath of the “explosion”. Obviously, above the 200SMA we open long positions and so on for the short positions.

 

[ddukic]

EUR/USD 03/10/2012 - Daily, 4h and 1h Chart Analysis

EUR/USD 03/10/2012 - Daily, 4h and 1h Chart Analysis

EUR/USD 4 HOURS CHART

SUGGESTIONS: For the last 48 hours of trading the parity is side stepping compressed between two strong levels. I don’t suggest opening new positions using the 4 hours time chart. It does not give you any sign that will allow you to open positions with small stop loss cost. The levels of stop loss both for Long and Short positions are far away from the present parity’s level. Nevertheless, please study this chart for using it as guide for positions opened based on the 1 hour chart.

EUR/USD 60 MIN

SUGGESTIONS: Today, I will not add any comments. As a matter of fact, I will continue only with the Suggestions because what interests you at the end of the day is to know the trading strategy to apply. Let us start. Any opened long positions from lower levels (example: the two previous lows) will continue running. Stop loss the level immediately below the crossing of the two SMAs. New Short positions. You can open short positions with stop loss the recent local high pivot at 1,2960. New Long positions may be opened provided the parity does not go below the crossing of the two SMAs.

EUR/USD DAILY CHART

SUGGESTIONS: As you can see we are still above the 200SMA level nicely supported and protected. With this chart you may have a more complete picture of the EUR/USD parity. To see successful Short positions you must observe the parity below the level of the 200SMA. Otherwise, the more we stay above it, the more a consolidation is created that may push the parity upwards. In this chart the environment is clearly indicating Long direction.

 

[ddukic]

EUR/USD 05/10/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

EUR/USD 05/10/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

EUR/USD 4 HOURS CHART

SUGGESTIONS: The most interesting chart of today on the EUR/USD pair is the 4 hours chart. Observe the parity "touching" the horizontal brown line. Please remember how many times I referred to it in the past postings. Another interesting observation is the very recent low at the 0.25 Fibo grade of the Fibo scale marked with a blue arrow. The parity is not like a slow moving automobile that you may brake on it and stops, more or less, with high precision from the point of arrest you chosen. The parity is like a "train" breaking at high speed. Inevitably it will continue for some distance after the breaking effect. So, long positions still running either new, or, opened from much lower levels continue their glorious way. A little more effort and we will enjoy, first, the "double top" set up, thereafter, a diagonally upwards move that will be aiming the 4.25 Fibo grade of the Fibo scale marked with red arrow. As the situation developed you place the stop loss a "little" below the very last local low, 1,2830usd. You may open new short positions in case the parity does not succeed to exceed the horizontal brown line. Set the stop loss of these new short positions at the level of the affordable cost. Technically, the correct stop loss for new short positions would have been the 1,3170 usd level, very expensive at this point.

 

[ddukic]

EUR/USD 10/10/2012 - Daily Chart Analysis

EUR/USD 10/10/2012 - Daily Chart Analysis

EUR/USD DAILY CHART

SUGGESTIONS: This is exactly what wise traders do. They return to re-check the previous supporting level. Was it really strong enough? So, you now have the parity at the level of the 200SMA on the Daily and 4 hours charts. It is true that “black swans” exist, now whether you can meet black swans every other corner in your neighborhood is another “hat”, another very unlucky issue. So, we have a double support from two 200SMAs. We will see. Do reduce your short exposure. Wait to see the evolution at this stage. Besides the double support from the 200SMAs there is the 50SMA on this Daily chart waiting a little below. At this stage the short position’s risk/reward ratio is not so favorable to the traders. The long side must, also, wait. Usually, matters of similar complexity are not solved in few hours of trading. Be alert! Color: Deep yellow, almost red. !!!

 

[ddukic]

EUR/USD 06/11/2012 - 4h and 1h Chart Analysis

EUR/USD 06/11/2012 - 4h and 1h Chart Analysis

UR/USD 4 HOURS CHART

SUGGESTIONS: We should not forget the two Fibo scales. The one marked by the blue arrow indicates the “grades” upward. The Fibo scale with the red arrow indicates the downward move.

Please note the previous “double top” set up at the level of Fibo grade 3.23. The same Fibo scale has “grades” of higher grade like, 4.25 – 5.78 – 6.85. In other words, I do not exclude unequivocally the possibility to observe a return to the up movement of this parity. In this case, the swings we are observing as of September 16th 2012 are only a “sideways” correction that will only give more strength to this parity. Will the result of the American Elections generate the required energy? We will see in the near future sessions.

Vice-versa, the Fibo scale marked with red arrow indicates the down move. As you can see the parity is just on the “verge of the cliff”. If we lose the “triple bottom” set up we will try the support levels indicating in the chart.

EUR/USD 60 MINS

SUGESTIONS: By now it is simple. Above the pink colored horizontal line you stay long. Below the same colored line you stay short.

Technically speaking, if the parity will not succeed to recover the “d4” trend line, the parity will follow the magenta colored channel “d5-d6”. Future intermediate targets, 1,2680 – 1,2571 – 1,2436 and below.

If the parity succeeds to recover the “d4” trend line, we may observe an up move. First upward target the 200SMA. For the time being, the parity is in the center of the “triple bottom” set up and we must be ALERTED for the evolution of the parity after the result of the American Elections.

 

[ddukic]

EUR/USD 07/11/2012 - 4h and 1h Chart

EUR/USD 07/11/2012 - 4h and 1h Chart

EUR/USD 4 HOURS

SUGGESTIONS: Further to the comments made for the 60min chart, we observe on the 4 hours chart the up candle of the last hours of trading. In this chart the “resistances” in front of the parity are evident. First of all “resistances”, the d1 red trend line, upper part of the channel “d1-d2” is the first the parity will encounter.

The trading strategy described in the 60min chart corresponds to the 4 hours chart too.

EUR/USD 60MIN

SUGGESTIONS: The news announces Mr. Barak Obama as the next President of the United States and the EUR/USD parity, for the time being, reverses its falling course.

The “pink” horizontal trend line, signaling since many days the “triple bottom” set up, proved to be, for the time being, a strong supporting level.

Can you tell whether Mr. Obama’s re-election reversed the course of this parity, or, the “pink” horizontal line?

Anyway, the parity is approaching the resistance of the 200SMA.

The short positions must reduce to the bare minimum, if not closed, their short exposure and wait further developments before opening new short positions.

The long positions, new anyway, remain opened. The up correction under way will encounter in short the 200SMA where will reveal some of its consistency and nature.

Obviously, the opening in Europe and later the opening of the USA will give us further indications of the further evolution of the EUR/USD parity.

 

[candle7779]

Here is my EURUSD forecast for today
I consider it is better to put an order to sell. As to ichimoku idicator and moving average. All of them prompts this. And TP 1.27165 is about and SL: 1.27916
Have a great pipping.

 

[candle7779]

Here is my EURUSD forecast for today:
I think bullish movement will continue and I've put an order to buy and take profit to my mind will be 1.27598. If the bearish movement starts stop loss will be: 1.268861.
Here is a chart for it.

 

[ddukic]

EUR/USD 12/11/2012 - 4h and 60 min Chart Analysis

EUR/USD 60MIN CHARTS

SUGGESTIONS:
The green colored “support” zone is reached by the parity and a “slight” reaction can be seen immediately after the “touching”.

As I have repeatedly stated: “below the pink horizontal line we remain on short positions. The stop loss strategy must be adjusted now. For as long as the parity stays close to the pink horizontal line, the stop loss or the level for very drastic reduction of your short exposure, r emains a level little above the pink horizontal line. As the parity will eventually increase the distance of its position from the pink horizontal line, you must switch to a “rolling stop loss” strategy. Never forget that no one becomes “rich” from trading only one trade.

I have also indicated the green zone as a support level.

So, the Bears reduce their short exposure and the Bulls open timid long positions with stop loss the breaking of the “d4” trend line and the 1.26837 minus a little, level. Above, the pink horizontal line, my friends the Bulls, will “attack”.

The Bears, will “attack” after the parity crosses from above the green support zone.


EUR/USD 4 HOURS CHART

SUGGESTIONS: The forecast about the “1-2 Waves” set up I mentioned two days ago, gains credibility as the parity falls.

At the closing of last evening trading session, the parity stopped its downwards path on the D1 red trend line, abandoning for some hours the d2 red trend line, a path followed by the parity for some time already.

If the parity crosses from above the D1 trend line and continues downwards not paying attention to the “SUPPORT 1” zone (colored light blue color), the “1-2 Waves” set up will be fully confirmed and the parity would be engaged in a 3rd grade Elliott Wave,. The parity will accelerate its fall, creating somewhere along the path a downward gap or gaps, depending from the violence of the fall. Expected targets of such fall are the levels of 1.2189 (2.618 Fibo grade) and 1.15 (4.25 Fibo grade that does not appear on this part of the relevant chart).

Vice-versa, if the parity pays attention on the “SUPPORT 1” level, the eventual strong fall may be postponed for latter. The 3rd grade Elliott Wave by stopping at the “SUPPORT 1” zone will satisfy the condition wanting the 3rd Wave to be longer than one of the 1st or 5th grades Waves, because this 3rd Wave (1.31-1.25) will be longer than the 1st Wave (1.31-1.28). Double the size in pips. In this case, the forecasted fall may be manifested adopting an extended 5th grade Wave after the exhaustion of the 4th grade Wave that may start from the “SUPPORT 1” zone and exhaust somewhere around th3 1.28usd level. The exhaustion of this “extended” 5th grade Elliott Wave may be at levels below the 1.15usd (4.25 Fibo grade of the Fibo scale marked with thick red arrow).

As you can easily suppose, from each of the levels that could play the role of resistance on the possible falling evolution of this parity’s path, you can start timid long positions till the next resistance zone. They are trades on long positions of small duration in time. If you choose to do it, you must be careful while selecting the entry points in order to have the max of risk/reward ratio. You, also, must set tight stop loss strategy in order to min losses and do not over try it, please. In general, there are no reliable foreseeable support levels for the very near future.

Besides, as you will observe from the weekly chart that I suggest you should visit, the parity its being distanced from the brown prong of the relative Andrew’s Pitchfork. There is not yet sufficient distance to consider it as “unequivocal” crossing from above, nevertheless, the sign are there, very evident.

 

[ddukic]

EUR/USD 13/11/2012 - 4h and 60 min Chart Analysis

EUR/USD 4 HOURS CHART

SUGGESTIONS: The parity is supported right now by the D1 red trend line that originates from the 28th February 2012. There is a significantly light trading forcing the parity to “jump” more than under heavy trading volumes.

My friends, this chart is full of technical lines and Fibo scales making its reading difficult. The density of technical tools in this chart signals that is better to run “short time” trades. Leaving positions, either long, or, short, opened for long time, will surely encounter a technical element that may “burn” most of the unrealized profits.



Anyway, the main trend is downwards, so, short positions are suggestible. On the crossing of the D1 trend line from above, the parity is expected to encounter the “SUPPORT 1” zone. For here, either, a rebound of limited extensions is expected, or, a “delay” of the falling path.

On this SUPPORT 1 zone you may try some long positions with stop loss level just below the supporting cyan zone.

EUR/USD 60MIN CHART

SUGGESTIONS: The parity for the time being is little below the 1.2683usd level; it is not though finished with the green supporting zone. The “d4” trend line has been tested several times therefore I will remind you that it constitutes a “major” element of technical analysis in this chart and you can trust it.

If the d4 breaks, “nobody is perfect”, the parity will continue moving within the channel d5-d6 aiming lower targets of this falling path.

Therefore,

The short positions must be ready to reactivate their relative exposure. You must, though, firstly be sure about the crossing from above of the green supporting zone. Targets further down: 1.2575 – 1.2441 – 1.2244 – 1.2206 – 1.1981. All targets correspond to the various Fibo grades of the Fibo scale marked with red arrow; and thus constitute potential intermediate or reversing targets of the parity’s path. Stop loss the crossing from below of the 50SMA.

The “Bulls”. My beautiful optimistic friends, open some very timid long positions and be ready to close them as the parity eventually cross from above the d4 trade line and the green resistance zone. In case the green zone proves to be “too hard to die” and the parity rebounds, wait for the return of the parity, to reconfirm that green zone is “really alive”. If, in this second attempt, the green zone resists and the parity rebounds, my bullish friends increase you long exposures. The stop loss for you is set at the level of 1.2650usd.

 

[ddukic]

EUR/USD 14/11/2012 - 4h and 60 min Chart Analysis

EUR/USD 60MIN CHART

SUGGESTIONS: Today, I have nothing to add. The SUPPORT green zone, for the time being, holds its position and function. The parity aims the 200SMA and continues moving between “d4-d3”.



EUR/USD 4 HOURS CHART

SUGGESTIONS: The “D1” trend line “seems” to hold and the parity aims the 50SMA on this 4 hours chart.

In case the “young” reversal follows the latest news from the front of the European Debt crisis, is early to “celebrate” the solution of the problem. Therefore, let us wait for the encounter between the parity and the 50SMA in this time frame chart and the encounter of the parity with the 200SMA at the 60min chart.

The trading strategies of the previous days are still valid since the supporting levels on both time frame charts were estimated with good precision.

 

[ddukic]

EUR/USD 20/11/2012 - 4h and 1h Chart Analysis

EUR/USD 60MIN CHART

SUGGESTIONS: The pink horizontal line develops into a major technical element.

On the basis of the yesterday’s suggestions the short positions eventually opened below the pink line are by now closed because the relative stop loss was hit. Vice-versa, the long positions that were opened, just above the pink horizontal line, are already closed too, because their stop loss level was hit too.
So, I assume that only long positions that were opened from lower levels may still be opened. My friends, you will wait for the “end” of the encounter between the parity and the pink horizontal line. There is a reliable forecast for the stability of the U1-U2 blue channel.

You may try again small short positions when the parity gets out of the U1-U2 channel and moves below the pink horizontal line. Stop loss as previously, just above the same line.

EUR/USD 4 HOURS CHART

SUGGESTIONS: The up move is heading towards the 200SMA provided the parity will get out of the u1-u2 blue channel. So,

The long positions opened from previous lower levels stay opened ready to reduce their exposure or even close in case the parity does not exceed the u1-u2 channel.

In my opinion, is safer to open short positions a little later, after the parity’s evolution after some hours.

 

[ddukic]

EUR/USD 21/11/2012 - 4h, 1h and 30 min Chart Analysis

EUR/USD 60MIN CHART

COMMENTS: As I always say: “…..successful analysis is the one that is always forecasts correctly, because it is describing the possible scenarios out of the important pivots of a chart. One of these scenarios will become reality. There is no human being that reliably can forecast the future.

In confirmation of the above, please read the last line of my yesterday suggestions. So,
There should be few short new positions although the drop of this parity happened during the Asian trading. For the time being the parity is supported by the 200SMA and the U2 blue trend line. When the parity, unequivocally, goes below both supporting elements, you will increase your short exposure. Otherwise, close the short position and wait for new signals.

Hello my friends “Bulls”. Do you guys now that you may have a chance to catch the start of an up move of this parity? Listen, open here long timid positions, stop loss little below the 200SMA and U2blue trend line. You may increase your long exposure above the pink horizontal line.

EUR/USD 30MIN CHART

SUGGESTIONS: Please read the comments of yesterday:



“…The median line of any Pitchfork indicates the trend line of 45’ degrees, in other words, the diagonal of any square. As you can observe the bar of the previous half hour reached the “top of the 3rd Wave” – according to many Elliotticians, the exhaust of a 3rd Wave coincides with the median line of the Pitchfork between the 0, 1 and 2 pivots indicating the exhaust of the respective Waves. In this scenario, the Wave following is of 4th corrective direction. If the parity will not exceed the very recent high in the very near trading time period, i.e. the 4th Wave will evolve, we will not expect a 5th Wave of higher high than the 1.2810 level, because of the relation between the 1st the 3rd and the 5th Waves: The 3rd Wave must be longer than one of the other two. Besides, the recent previous high created a “triple top” set up that calls our attention. So, new short positions now with stop loss 1.2828. Otherwise, wait for the parity to exceed the median red line before opening long positions with stop loss the same median line….”.

Now, observe the evolution of the parity in 24hours time period (yesterday 06.00gmt to today 06.00gmt). What is next?

Obviously, the parity will recover part of the ground lost so rapidly. Fist obstacle is the 200SMA. Above it with stop loss the 200SMA you will go long; below the 200SMA with same stop loss element, the 200SMA, you will go short.

Obviously, whoever, yesterday, “believed” my forecast and opened short positions, will remain opened waiting the encounter of the parity with its 200SMA.

Irrespective of the trading strategy, it is worth to observe the efficiency of the Pitchfork and Fibo scales when, correctly, applied together.

EUR/USD 4 HOURS CHART

SUGGESTIONS: In my opinion, the 4 hours chart, today, does not help to forecast the evolution of this parity on this time frame.

The parity is supported by the 50SMA – not a negligible element – nevertheless, I do not expect it to “stand” for long. Don’t forget that we are moving in a medium term downward trend line. Personally, sustain that first target of this correction is the SUPPORT 1 level at about 1.25 usd level. It also means that we will move below the D1 red trend line originating from Feb 2012. This D1 trend line produced up to now substantial rebounds every time the parity was trying to “break” it.

Obviously, my earlier forecast of the first target implies short positions.

 

[ddukic]

EUR/USD 22/11/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

EUR/USD 4 HOURS CHART

SUGGESTIONS: The parity moved within the u1-u2 channel. Today, 22nd of November, Thanks giving Day for the USA the trading will be “thin”, no much volume. Tomorrow will be thin too. It is a suitable opportunity to make a 4 days holiday. Let us go back to the chart, now.

The 200 SMA is just above the point where the parity stands right now; therefore I am expecting a resistance at this level. Nevertheless, since the trading is thin, is possible to “move” the parity easily, thus, conventional trading analysis is less effective.

I believe this week is “half”. If USA, tomorrow, does not trade as on usual days, the volumes will be low and therefore I propose to you all to stay out of trading.

Anyway, tomorrow I will be posting again the relative analysis.