Forex-Metal Daily Analysis - 28/07/10

Forex-Metal

Master Trader
Jul 12, 2010
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The release of the US consumer confidence shifted the trading dynamics.

Asian and European trading sessions

Euro: As the risk appetites continued to grow on Tuesday, the euro strengthened and the EUR/USD pair showed maximums above the $1,3000 mark.
The released today German Gfk Consumer confidence survey showed growth to 3.9, which supported the euro and resulted in the euro rate growth against the yen to its 7-weeks maximum.
British Pound: The GBP/USD traded in the range of $1,5470-$1,5530 during the morning trading.
Japanese Yen: The positive US fundamentals (home sales data), which were released on Monday, supported the market participants’ confidence in the rehabilitation of the world economy. Therefore, the demand for the safe heaven currencies dropped and the Japanese yen rate decreased against the major currencies. The USD/JPY pair consolidated around the Y87,20 mark.
Australian Dollar: The Australian dollar continued to trade around its maximums against the US dollar as the investors were waiting for the release of the Consumer prices. According to the expectations, the Consumer prices grew for 1% for the second quarter. As the Reserve Bank of Australia stated, the inflation data would influence the principal rate decision.
Oil: The stock markets growth continued to support the oil prices. The oil traded during the morning session at the level of $79 per barrel. Later on the rate decreased to $77.39.
Gold: The gold rate almost reached minimums at the $1166.50 per ounce mark.

American trading session
US Dollar: The release of the US fundamentals during the second part of the day shifted the trading dynamics. Risk appetites dropped as the US Consumer confidence index for July was published. The indicator decreased considerably compared to the previous mark to the level of 50.4 (its 5-month minimum level) against its forecast of 51.0.
The USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing index turned out to be somewhat above the expectations at the level of 16, but lower than the previous month. The released later on USD ABC Consumer confidence happened to be below the predictions as well. As a result, the US dollar rate rallied and demand for the safe heaven currencies grew.

Technical analysis

EURUSD
The pair is aiming to the second level of Fibonacci retracement of 38.2% at 1.31133, if 1.30277 is broken.
Resistance: 1.30277, 1.32285, 1.34334
Support: 1.28630, 1.27009, 1.25690
GBPUSD
The pair has broken 1.5484 again and aiming to 1.56722. At this level the pair should start topping, because of the MACD divergence.
Resistance: 1.56722, 1.58543, 1.60322
Support: 1.54842, 1.52523, 1.50581
USDCHF
The pair has reached 1.06179 and rolling back to 1.05139.
Resistance: 1.06179, 1.07258, 1.08210
Support: 1.05139, 1.03987, 1.02747
USDJPY
The pair is trading in the narrow range between 87.675 and 86.345. Once 86.246 is broken, the pair will decline to 85.161.
Resistance: 88.640, 90.045, 91.254
Support: 86.246, 85.701, 85.161
AUDUSD
The pair is rolling back to 0.89029. If this level is broken the pair will decline to 0.87243.
Resistance: 0.90285, 0.91773, 0.93357
Support: 0.89029, 0.87243, 0.82723