Forex-Metal Weekly Analysis

Forex-Metal

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Jul 12, 2010
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WEEKLY REVIEW FOR 2 - 6.04, 2012

Euro:
On Monday, the Euro continued its Friday’s rally against the U.S. dollar on the backdrop of announced European governments’ agreement on the increasing EFSF and ESM funds to 800 billion Euros. The EUR / USD tested the level of $1.3378 at the Asian session. The reason why the Euro currency came under pressure against the U.S. dollar later was the publication of report on index of business activity in the productive sectors in France, Germany and the Euro zone as a whole. The index for France (46.7) came out worse compared to forecasted (47.6). The negative data on unemployment, which reached a record high (10.8% versus the forecast and the value for the previous month at 10.7%) also had a pressure on Euro currency trading dynamics. The EUR / USD pair fell to a region of $ 1.3276.
On Tuesday, the EUR / USD couple rose to $ 1.3355 area at the Asian trading session. On the background of statements of the Spain Finance Minister, Mr. Cristobal Montoro, who noted that "Spain is in a critical situation the EUR / USD couple fell into the region of $ 1.3310.
The Euro dropped down against major currencies on Wednesday amid falling demand on Spanish government bonds and expectations of the speech of the ECB President, Mr. Mario Draghi. The ECB left its interest rate unchanged at 1.00%. The EUR / USD couple fell into the region of $ 1.3157. There were also reports on manufacturing orders in Germany, which did not support the Euro currency trading dynamics. The news came out worse than expected for February on a monthly basis 0.3% vs. forecasted +1.4. Also the Euro-Zone Retail Sales in February recorded -2.1% vs. forecasted -1.1%
On Thursday and Friday the Euro continued its down trend, falling to a region of 1.3030 and testing this critical level for two times.

US Dollar:
On Tuesday Positive news lowered the demand for safe haven currencies, including the U.S. currency. The dollar fell against most major currencies against the backdrop of U.S. economy recovery. However, on the next day, after the publication of FOMC minutes the dollar rocketed sharply against almost all its competitors. In till the end of this week, the U.S. currency continued actively strengthening throughout the whole market against all its major competitors.

British Pound:
On Monday, the British Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to a 10-month high of 52.1, thus supporting the pound. The GBP/USD pair showed a maximum at $1.6060, but later retreated.On Wednesday, the pair was traded in the area of $ 1.5880 to $1.5909, sluggishly trying to find the support at the $1.5865 level after falling to $1.5832 lows. However, the support for the pound this day was provided by the publications of the report on PMI in the service sector and housing prices. Both of them were positive and as it was realised later, supported the currency till the end of this week. Thus, the index of business activity in the services sector in March was 55.3 points vs. 53.4 points expected and Housing prices recorded 2.2% vs. 0.2% in March in on monthly basis.

Japanese Yen:
On Monday, the yen fell against all major currencies after the publication of a negative report of the Bank of Japan, which showed that business sentiment of the largest companies in the country has not improved. During the Asian trading the USD/JPY pair rose above Y83.00. Later on the USD/JPY pair dropped from the maximums of Y83.30 to the area of Y82.15. Later, the yen rose against all of the most traded currencies amid concerns about the weakening investments from China after the release of the conflicting reports of the purchasing index managers. On Tuesday, the Yen fell against the dollar to Y81.56 level at the beginning of the Asian session, against the backdrop of increasing bearish sentiment on the yen. However, the pair was able to recover to Y82.3 area at the European session. Against the rising demand for safe assets and falling of stock markets, the yen and the dollar strengthened against all of the most traded currencies on Wednesday.
Australian dollar:
On Monday, the Australian dollar rose against all major currencies amid signs of improvement in the economy of China, which is the largest trading partner of Australia. In this case, the Federation of Logistics and the National Bureau of Statistics reported that China's manufacturing index last month rose to 53.1, which was the highest level since March 2011.The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday's meeting decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25 percent. The Australian currency reacted negatively on this decision dropping against almost all major traded currencies.

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WEEKLY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FOR 9 - 13. 04, 2012









EURUSD
The pair has declined to the Neckline of Double Top. If 1.30579 is broken the end of the figure maybe expected at 1.27572.
Resistance: 1.33427, 1.37441, 1.41130
Support: 1.28800, 1.25667, 1.20280

GBPUSD
The pair has tested Moving Average (100) at 1.59962 and stays below this level. It may bring pair to 1.56607.
Resistance: 1.59962, 1.64274, 1.68504
Support: 1.52523, 1.48532, 1.43344

USDCHF
The pair is aiming to the Moving Average (100) at 0.93772.
Resistance: 0.93264, 0.96597, 0.99031
Support: 0.91074, 0.88022, 0.85633

USDJPY
The pair is trading around Moving Average (100) at 82.245. Strong resistance maybe met at the trend line at 84.356.
Resistance: 83.330, 86.836, 90.909
Support: 80.244, 76.535, 73.126

AUDUSD
The pair is aiming to decline to the median line at 1.01873.
Resistance: 1.03847, 1.05810, 1.07806
Support: 1.01873, 1.00592, 0.97889


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