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Message: [QUOTE="MikhailLF, post: 166696, member: 42242"] Morning Market Review 2019-07-04 08:17 (GMT+2) EUR/USD The euro showed ambiguous dynamics against the US dollar on Wednesday, updating local highs of June 20. The support came from good macroeconomic statistics. The Markit Services PMI in June rose from 52.9 to 53.6 points, while the forecast was for growth to 53.4 points. The Composite Manufacturing PMI for the same period strengthened from 51.8 to 52.2 points, which also turned out to be better than forecast (52.1 points). Another factor supporting the euro remains the likelihood of lowering interest rates by the Fed as early as the July meeting. In addition, US President Donald Trump continues to exert strong pressure on the regulator, openly calling for the devaluation of the dollar. Today, EUR is correcting. Investors are focused on a block of European statistics on retail sales for May, as well as a speech by ECB representative Philip Lane and ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos. GBP/USD The pound finished Wednesday with a moderate decline against the US dollar, continuing the development of the "bearish" impulse formed at the beginning of the week. The British currency continued to be pressured by weak macroeconomic statistics from the UK. In May, the BRC retail price index showed a decline of 0.1% YoY after rising by 0.8% YoY last month. The Markit Services PMI in June fell from 51.0 to 50.2 points, while investors did not expect any changes. Today, the attention of the market has shifted to data from the USA, which turned out to be ambiguous. Among the negative aspects, one can note the decline in production orders in May by 0.7% MoM after a decrease by 1.2% MoM and a slowdown in the ISM Services PMI in June from 56.9 to 55.1 points with a forecast of 55.9 points. AUD/USD The Australian dollar strengthened against the US one since July 2, updating local highs of May 7. The instrument is growing against the background of the publication of a rather uncertain macroeconomic statistics from the USA. Also, it is supported by the prospect of a Fed rate cut in July and the overall pressure that Donald Trump puts on the regulator. The improvement in the US-China trade relations also helps AUD, which counts on the growth of Chinese production. Today, the pair is trading in an uptrend. The published statistics on retail sales from Australia in May provides little support. The indicator rose by 0.1% MoM after falling by 0.1% MoM last month but did not reach the forecast (0.2%). US markets are closed on Thursday to celebrate Independence Day. USD/JPY The US dollar remains pressured against the Japanese yen, trading mostly in a downtrend after the update of local maxima at the beginning of the week. The ADP Employment Report published yesterday had a moderate pressure on the dollar. In June, the report reflected the growth of new jobs in the private sector by 102K versus 41K last month. The analysts suggested an increase in employment of 140K. Initial jobless claims for the week of June 28 decreased from 229K to 221K, with a forecast of 223K. Continuous jobless claims also fell, from 1.694 to 1.686 million (forecast 1.675 million). Today, the instrument is traded in both directions. Low investor activity is caused by closed US markets on the occasion of Independence Day. Moderate support for the yen is provided by investment performance. The volume of foreign investment rose by 58.5 billion Japanese yen after a decrease of 313.3 billion over the past period. Investments in foreign bonds rose by 514.3 billion yen after rising by 497.8 billion. Oil Oil prices rose moderately on July 3, partially recovering from a sharp decline on Tuesday. Quotes continued to be supported by the positive results of the OPEC+ meeting, at which it was decided to extend the existing agreement to restrict supplies for another 9 months. The growth was also supported by the API report on oil reserves, published on Tuesday, which indicated a reduction by 5 million barrels. On Wednesday, the US Department of Energy published a report, which failed to meet expectations. For the week of June 28, according to EIA, oil reserves fell by only 1.085 million barrels after a decline of a record 12.788 million for the last period. The report also reflected growth in US oil production from 12,100 to 12,200 million barrels per day. [/QUOTE]

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