First we recap any major events that happen in the markets the previous week. We had a few market moving events, we had the ECB (European Central Bank) Draghi speech which were dovish (bearish) hinting additional easing in march is on the table as expected by institutional banks, which lowered the EUR after his speech. Next we had the FED FOMC statement which were slighly dovish as the markets had anticipated due to sluggish inflation, global slowdown in growth and China's uncertainty. Stating that they are monitoring global risk. We saw USD came under selling pressure against EUR & JPY safe haven currencies. Next we had RBNZ Rate statement Gov. Wheeler also hinting that inflation will take longer than expected to hit goal and that additional NZD depreciation would be necessary, plus further easing may be required later this year. Last we had Japan Monetary Policy which they surprised the markets like they always do adopting negative rates and we saw JPY came under selling pressure. Now looking ahead to this weeks Economic Calendar 1-31-16 we have later today China Manufacturing PMI expected 49.6% & Caixin Manufacturing PMI expected 48.1% both below 50.0 which indicates contraction which is not good. If data comes out miss on expectation we could see AUD weaken depending on much it deviates from expectation. Something to keep on eye on.
If you get a MISS on Expectation we look to sell AUD short term on any rally above .7100