Market Review

Mar 7, 2025
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Following last weeks ECB's interest rate announcement, the EURUSD exhibited volatile price action, presenting potential profit opportunities on both the bullish and bearish sides. Initially, the pair saw a bullish surge, climbing from a low of 1.07907 to a peak of 1.08537, resulting in a movement of approximately $630 USD. However, EURUSD later transitioned into a bearish trend, dropping sharply to a low of 1.07657. This bearish move not only surpassed the initial low recorded during the news release but also offered a larger profit potential of $880 USD.

In the short term, the rate cut and dovish tone were likely to be negative for the Euro, potentially leading to weakness in EUR/USD. The medium-term outlook was more uncertain, as fiscal stimulus and the end of the ECB's rate-cutting cycle could have supported the Euro, but rising bond yields and slower growth projections may have limited gains. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's policy played a critical role in determining the future direction of EUR/USD. In summary, the ECB's decision was likely to weigh on the Euro in the short term, while the medium-term impact depended on fiscal developments in Europe, bond yield dynamics, and the Fed's policy trajectory.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

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Mar 7, 2025
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Market Overview: Oil Price Decline Last Week​


Between March 3 and March 7, 2025, oil prices experienced a bearish trend, driven by a combination of increased supply and growing concerns over global demand:

  1. OPEC+ Production Adjustment: On March 3, OPEC+ announced plans to raise oil production by 138,000 barrels per day, effective in April. This move, which reversed previous production cuts, contributed to a rise in global supply, putting downward pressure on oil prices.
  2. U.S. Tariff Policy Impact: The Trump administration imposed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, including a 10% duty on Canadian energy products. Additionally, tariffs on Chinese imports were raised to 20%. These actions raised concerns over an escalating trade war, which could negatively affect global economic growth and reduce oil demand.

As a result of these factors, oil prices saw a sustained decline, reflecting the broader bearish sentiment in the market.


What Traders May Have Missed: A $5,350 Opportunity in Oil

Between the highest and lowest points of last week's oil price movement, there was a remarkable 535-tick swing—equating to a potential profit of $5,350. During this period, the price fluctuated within a range from $74.03 to $68.68, offering traders a substantial profit opportunity if they had capitalized on the market's volatility.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

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Mar 7, 2025
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12.03.2025

Today's High-Impact News Releases:
  • US Inflation Figures
  • Canadian Interest Rate Decision

U.S. Inflation

On February 12, 2025, data revealed that U.S. inflation pressures persisted in January, with both headline and core consumer prices rising more than expected. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.5% month-over-month, the highest since August 2023, driven by a 0.4% rise in shelter costs and a 1.1% jump in energy prices, particularly gasoline. Annual inflation edged up to 3%, above forecasts of 2.9%, as energy costs rose for the first time in six months. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, also accelerated, rising 0.4% monthly and 3.3% annually, surpassing expectations. Key drivers included transportation services, shelter, and motor vehicle insurance, while food prices, especially eggs, saw significant increases due to supply shortages. These figures indicate stalled progress in curbing inflation, with shelter costs alone accounting for nearly 30% of the monthly increase.

Today, the latest U.S. CPI data will be released at 12:30 PM GMT, and markets are bracing for high volatility as investors assess whether inflationary pressures are easing or persisting.
The chart below illustrates how EUR/USD reacted following the release.

EURUSD CPI.jpg

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

Bank of Canada Interest Rate
On January 29, 2025, the Bank of Canada (BoC) cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3%, in line with market expectations. This move brought total rate cuts to 200 basis points since the easing cycle began in June 2024. At the time, the central bank also announced the conclusion of quantitative tightening and outlined plans to restart asset purchases in early March to support liquidity and economic activity.

The BoC noted that CPI inflation had recently aligned with its 2% target and was expected to remain near this level over the following two years as underlying price pressures eased. However, the Governing Council expressed concerns that U.S. tariffs could hinder Canada’s economic recovery by reducing demand for domestic goods and services.

Despite these risks, the BoC projected GDP growth to improve, forecasting a 1.8% expansion over the next two years, following an estimated 1.3% growth in 2024, as detailed in its latest Monetary Policy Report.

The Bank of Canada is set to announce its next interest rate decision today at 1:45 PM GMT.
The chart below illustrates how EURCAD reacted following the Bank of Canada's interest rate announcement.


BOC chart.jpg

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.