News Announcement & Chart Analysis by PlexyTrade
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5th December 2024
Thursday
Thursday
The United States is set to release its weekly Unemployment Claims report on Thursday, offering crucial insights into the labor market's current health. This report will shed light on the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, serving as a key indicator of economic stability and workforce trends.
USD - Unemployment Claims
Unemployment Claims track the number of first-time filings for unemployment insurance in the past week. A lower-than-expected figure is positive for the currency, reflecting stronger labor market conditions. Although a lagging indicator, it provides vital insights into economic health and influences monetary policy decisions.
In the week ending November 23, seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims decreased by 2,000 to 213,000, while the previous week’s claims were revised upward by 2,000 to 215,000. The 4-week moving average of initial claims dropped by 1,250 to 217,000, following an upward revision of the previous average from 217,750 to 218,250. For the week ending November 16, the insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 1.3%. However, the number of seasonally adjusted insured unemployment claims increased by 9,000 to 1,907,000—the highest level since November 2021. The previous week’s insured unemployment figure was revised down by 10,000 to 1,898,000. Additionally, the 4-week moving average for insured unemployment climbed by 13,500 to 1,890,250, also reaching its highest level since November 2021, after the prior week’s average was revised down by 2,500 to 1,876,750.
In the week ending November 23, seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims decreased by 2,000 to 213,000, while the previous week’s claims were revised upward by 2,000 to 215,000. The 4-week moving average of initial claims dropped by 1,250 to 217,000, following an upward revision of the previous average from 217,750 to 218,250. For the week ending November 16, the insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 1.3%. However, the number of seasonally adjusted insured unemployment claims increased by 9,000 to 1,907,000—the highest level since November 2021. The previous week’s insured unemployment figure was revised down by 10,000 to 1,898,000. Additionally, the 4-week moving average for insured unemployment climbed by 13,500 to 1,890,250, also reaching its highest level since November 2021, after the prior week’s average was revised down by 2,500 to 1,876,750.
TL;DR
| Metric | Current Value | Change | Revised Previous Value | Highest Since |
|---|
| Initial Jobless Claims | 213,000 | Decreased by 2,000 | 215,000 | - |
| 4-Week Moving Avg. (Initial Claims) | 217,000 | Decreased by 1,250 | 218,250 | - |
| Insured Unemployment Rate | 1.3% | Unchanged | - | - |
| Insured Unemployment Claims | 1,907,000 | Increased by 9,000 | 1,898,000 | November 2021 |
| 4-Week Moving Avg. (Insured Claims) | 1,890,250 | Increased by 13,500 | 1,876,750 | November 2021 |
The upcoming Unemployment Claims report is forecasted to show 215,000 initial claims, reflecting a slight increase compared to the previous week's outcome of 213,000.
The next upcoming Unemployment Claims is set to be released on Thursday at 1:30 PM GMT.
6th December 2024
Friday
Friday
This Friday, significant labor market data will be released from both Canada and the US. Canada is set to announce its Employment Change, highlighting job gains or losses, along with its latest Unemployment Rate. Meanwhile, the US will publish key indicators including Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change, and its Unemployment Rate, providing a comprehensive view of wage growth, job creation, and overall employment conditions. These updates are likely to influence market sentiment and policy expectations.
CAD - Employment Change
Employment Change Measures track the monthly variation in employment numbers. A higher-than-forecast 'Actual' figure is typically positive for the currency, as it indicates stronger job creation. Traders closely monitor this data because job growth is a crucial predictor of consumer spending, which significantly influences overall economic activity.
Canada's employment rose by 14,500 in October 2024, marking a slowdown from the 46,700 jobs added in September and falling short of the 25,000 jobs forecasted. Full-time employment grew by 25,600 positions, offsetting a decline of 11,200 part-time roles. Job gains were recorded in sectors such as business, building, and other support services (+28,700; +4.2%), educational services (+11,600; +0.8%), accommodation and food services (+12,200; +1.1%), and manufacturing (+9,700; +0.5%). However, losses were noted in finance, insurance, and real estate (-13,000; -0.9%), wholesale and retail trade (-8,300; -0.3%), and transportation and warehousing (-9,300; -0.9%). Regionally, Alberta (+13,000; +0.5%) and New Brunswick (+3,300; +0.8%) saw employment growth, while Prince Edward Island experienced a decline (-1,100; -1.2%).
Canada's employment rose by 14,500 in October 2024, marking a slowdown from the 46,700 jobs added in September and falling short of the 25,000 jobs forecasted. Full-time employment grew by 25,600 positions, offsetting a decline of 11,200 part-time roles. Job gains were recorded in sectors such as business, building, and other support services (+28,700; +4.2%), educational services (+11,600; +0.8%), accommodation and food services (+12,200; +1.1%), and manufacturing (+9,700; +0.5%). However, losses were noted in finance, insurance, and real estate (-13,000; -0.9%), wholesale and retail trade (-8,300; -0.3%), and transportation and warehousing (-9,300; -0.9%). Regionally, Alberta (+13,000; +0.5%) and New Brunswick (+3,300; +0.8%) saw employment growth, while Prince Edward Island experienced a decline (-1,100; -1.2%).
TL;DR
- Total Employment:
- Increased by 14,500 in October, slower than September's 46,700 gain and below the forecast of 25,000.
- Full-Time vs. Part-Time:
- Full-time employment rose by 25,600 positions.
- Part-time employment declined by 11,200 roles.
- Sector Gains:
- Business/Support Services: +28,700 (+4.2%).
- Educational Services: +11,600 (+0.8%).
- Accommodation/Food Services: +12,200 (+1.1%).
- Manufacturing: +9,700 (+0.5%).
- Sector Losses:
- Finance/Insurance/Real Estate: -13,000 (-0.9%).
- Wholesale/Retail Trade: -8,300 (-0.3%).
- Transportation/Warehousing: -9,300 (-0.9%).
- Regional Highlights:
- Alberta: +13,000 (+0.5%).
- New Brunswick: +3,300 (+0.8%).
- Prince Edward Island: -1,100 (-1.2%).
CAD - Unemployment Rate
Unemployment Rate Measures represent the percentage of the workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking work from the previous month. A lower-than-forecast 'Actual' figure is generally favorable for the currency. Traders monitor this metric closely because, despite being a lagging indicator, the unemployment rate provides valuable insights into overall economic health, given that consumer spending is closely linked to labor market conditions.
Canada's unemployment rate remained steady at 6.5% in October 2024, defying expectations of a rise to 6.6% and easing concerns about the labor market's recent downturn. While the unemployed population increased slightly by 900 to 1,429,000, net employment grew by 14,500 to 20,596,900, though it fell short of the anticipated 25,000 gain. A significant drop in youth joblessness (-20,800 to 403,400) offset a rise in unemployment among the core-aged population (up 21,300 to 803,900), with little change among older workers. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate slipped to 64.8%, the lowest since January 2021.
Canada's unemployment rate remained steady at 6.5% in October 2024, defying expectations of a rise to 6.6% and easing concerns about the labor market's recent downturn. While the unemployed population increased slightly by 900 to 1,429,000, net employment grew by 14,500 to 20,596,900, though it fell short of the anticipated 25,000 gain. A significant drop in youth joblessness (-20,800 to 403,400) offset a rise in unemployment among the core-aged population (up 21,300 to 803,900), with little change among older workers. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate slipped to 64.8%, the lowest since January 2021.
TL;DR
- Unemployment Rate:
- Remained steady at 6.5% in October 2024, defying expectations of a rise to 6.6%.
- Unemployed Population:
- Increased slightly by 900 to 1,429,000.
- Net Employment:
- Grew by 14,500 to 20,596,900 but fell short of the forecasted 25,000 gain.
- Youth Unemployment:
- Dropped by 20,800 to 403,400.
- Core-Aged Unemployment:
- Increased by 21,300 to 803,900.
- Older Workers:
- Little change observed in unemployment numbers.
- Labor Force Participation Rate:
- Declined to 64.8%, the lowest since January 2021.
The forecast predicted an increase to 6.6%, compared to the actual outcome of 6.5%.
The next Employment Change and Unemployment Rate figures will be announced on Friday at 1:30 PM GMT.
USD - Average Hourly Earnings m/m
The Average Hourly Earnings m/m indicator measures the change in wages that businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming sector. If the 'Actual' figure exceeds the 'Forecast,' it generally benefits the currency. Traders pay close attention to this indicator because it acts as a leading indicator of consumer inflation; when businesses face higher labor costs, these increased expenses are often passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices.
In August, average hourly earnings for all private nonfarm employees increased by 14 cents, or 0.4 percent, reaching $35.21, reflecting a 3.8 percent rise over the past year. Private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees saw a similar 0.4 percent increase, with earnings reaching $30.27. The average workweek for all private nonfarm employees edged up to 34.3 hours, while manufacturing overtime increased slightly. These wage and workweek gains came amid slower job growth and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.2 percent.
In August, average hourly earnings for all private nonfarm employees increased by 14 cents, or 0.4 percent, reaching $35.21, reflecting a 3.8 percent rise over the past year. Private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees saw a similar 0.4 percent increase, with earnings reaching $30.27. The average workweek for all private nonfarm employees edged up to 34.3 hours, while manufacturing overtime increased slightly. These wage and workweek gains came amid slower job growth and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.2 percent.
TL;DR
| Category | Details |
|---|
| Average Hourly Earnings | Increased by 14 cents (+0.4%) to $35.21. Up 3.8% YoY. |
| Production & Nonsupervisory Wages | Increased by 0.4% to $30.27. |
| Average Workweek | Increased to 34.3 hours. |
| Manufacturing Overtime | Slight increase observed. |
| Job Growth | Slower compared to previous trends. |
| Unemployment Rate | Unchanged at 4.2%. |
The forecast stands at 0.3%, compared to the previous outcome of 0.4%.
USD - Non-Farm Employment Change
The Non-Farm Employment Change measures the change in the number of employed individuals in the economy during the previous month, excluding those in the farming sector. This indicator is crucial for currency traders because a higher-than-expected 'actual' figure compared to the 'forecast' typically signals a positive economic outlook, leading to currency appreciation. Job creation is a key leading indicator of consumer spending, which drives a significant portion of overall economic activity. Thus, strong employment figures often suggest a robust economy and can influence currency values accordingly.
In October 2024, U.S. employment data revealed minimal change, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by only 12,000 jobs, leaving the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment growth was observed in health care, which added 52,000 jobs, and government sectors, which grew by 40,000 jobs. However, manufacturing employment dropped by 46,000 due to strike activity, and temporary help services lost 49,000 jobs. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% to $35.46, marking a 4.0% increase over the past year. Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which impacted southeastern states, may have influenced October data collection rates, but their effect on national employment and earnings estimates remains unclear.
In October 2024, U.S. employment data revealed minimal change, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by only 12,000 jobs, leaving the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment growth was observed in health care, which added 52,000 jobs, and government sectors, which grew by 40,000 jobs. However, manufacturing employment dropped by 46,000 due to strike activity, and temporary help services lost 49,000 jobs. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% to $35.46, marking a 4.0% increase over the past year. Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which impacted southeastern states, may have influenced October data collection rates, but their effect on national employment and earnings estimates remains unclear.
TL;DR
| Category | Details |
|---|
| Nonfarm Payrolls | Increased by 12,000 jobs. |
| Unemployment Rate | Steady at 4.1%. |
| Sector Gains |
| - Health Care | +52,000 jobs. |
| - Government | +40,000 jobs. |
| Sector Losses |
| - Manufacturing | -46,000 jobs (due to strikes). |
| - Temporary Help Services | -49,000 jobs. |
| Average Hourly Earnings | Increased by 0.4% to $35.46 (+4.0% YoY). |
| External Factors | Hurricanes Helene and Milton may have affected data collection, but national employment and earnings impacts remain unclear. |
The forecast projected 218,000 jobs, significantly higher than the actual outcome of 12,000.
USD - Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate measures the percentage of the workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment over the previous month. When the actual rate is lower than the forecasted rate, it is generally positive for the currency. Traders pay close attention to this figure because, despite being a lagging indicator, it reflects overall economic health and is closely linked to consumer spending. Additionally, the unemployment rate is crucial for shaping monetary policy, making it a key concern for policymakers and investors alike.
The U.S. unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1% in October 2024, despite disruptions from Hurricanes Helene and Milton in the southeastern U.S., according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Total nonfarm payroll employment saw a slight increase of 12,000 jobs, with gains in health care (+52,000) and government (+40,000) offset by losses in temporary help services (-49,000) and manufacturing (-46,000), the latter impacted by strike activity. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% to $35.46, reflecting a 4.0% increase over the past year, while the average workweek remained stable at 34.3 hours. Although data collection was challenging in storm-affected areas, the BLS did not alter its estimation procedures.
TL;DR
- Unemployment Rate: Held steady at 4.1%.
- Nonfarm Payroll Employment: Increased by 12,000 jobs, a significant slowdown from the prior 12-month average gain of 194,000 jobs.
- Sector Employment Changes:
- Health Care: Added 52,000 jobs, aligning with the average monthly gain over the past year.
- Government: Grew by 40,000 jobs, consistent with recent trends.
- Temporary Help Services: Declined by 49,000 jobs.
- Manufacturing: Decreased by 46,000 jobs, primarily due to strike activity in the transportation equipment sector.
- Average Hourly Earnings: Rose by 0.4% to $35.46, marking a 4.0% increase over the past year.
- Average Workweek: Remained unchanged at 34.3 hours.
The unemployment rate is projected to remain at 4.1%, consistent with the previous month's figure.
The upcoming release of key US labor market data, including Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change, and the Unemployment Rate, is scheduled for Friday at 1:30 PM GMT. These metrics are expected to provide critical insights into employment trends and economic performance.
10th December 2024
Tuesday
Tuesday
Australia’s Reserve Bank is set to announce its Cash Rate decision, closely watched for clues on monetary policy direction. Influenced by recent inflation and employment data, the decision could impact borrowing costs, inflation control, and consumer spending amid economic challenges.
AUD - Cash Rate
The Cash Rate refers to the interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial institutions. A rate higher than the forecast is typically positive for the currency. Traders closely monitor this rate, as short-term interest rates are a key driver of currency valuation, with other indicators primarily analyzed to anticipate rate changes.
On November 5, 2024, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Board decided to maintain the cash rate target at 4.35% and the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances at 4.25%. The Board acknowledged that underlying inflation remained elevated despite a significant decrease since 2022, largely influenced by temporary cost of living relief and declines in fuel and electricity prices. Headline inflation was recorded at 2.8% in the September quarter, down from 3.8% in the June quarter, though underlying inflation persisted at 3.5%. Forecasts suggested that inflation would not return sustainably to the target midpoint of 2.5% until 2026. Economic growth remained weak, constrained by reduced real disposable incomes and restrictive financial conditions, though consumer demand showed resilience due to spending by temporary residents. Labour market conditions stayed tight with a steady unemployment rate at 4.1% and high participation levels, while wage pressures eased slightly against weak productivity growth. The Board noted uncertainties in the global outlook, as some central banks eased monetary policy, and geopolitical risks remained high, especially regarding China’s economic policy impact. Prioritizing a sustainable return to target inflation within a reasonable timeframe, the Board expressed its commitment to maintaining restrictive policy until confident of inflation moving towards the target range.
On November 5, 2024, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Board decided to maintain the cash rate target at 4.35% and the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances at 4.25%. The Board acknowledged that underlying inflation remained elevated despite a significant decrease since 2022, largely influenced by temporary cost of living relief and declines in fuel and electricity prices. Headline inflation was recorded at 2.8% in the September quarter, down from 3.8% in the June quarter, though underlying inflation persisted at 3.5%. Forecasts suggested that inflation would not return sustainably to the target midpoint of 2.5% until 2026. Economic growth remained weak, constrained by reduced real disposable incomes and restrictive financial conditions, though consumer demand showed resilience due to spending by temporary residents. Labour market conditions stayed tight with a steady unemployment rate at 4.1% and high participation levels, while wage pressures eased slightly against weak productivity growth. The Board noted uncertainties in the global outlook, as some central banks eased monetary policy, and geopolitical risks remained high, especially regarding China’s economic policy impact. Prioritizing a sustainable return to target inflation within a reasonable timeframe, the Board expressed its commitment to maintaining restrictive policy until confident of inflation moving towards the target range.
TL;DR
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| November 5, 2024 | RBA maintained the cash rate target at 4.35% and the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances at 4.25%. |
| Key Highlights | Details |
|---|---|
| Inflation | - Headline inflation: 2.8% (Sep quarter), down from 3.8% (Jun quarter). - Underlying inflation: 3.5%, expected to reach 2.5% midpoint by 2026. - Driven by cost of living relief, fuel, and electricity price declines. |
| Economic Growth | - Growth remains weak, constrained by reduced disposable incomes and tight financial conditions. - Consumer demand supported by spending by temporary residents. |
| Labour Market | - Unemployment rate steady at 4.1%. - High participation and easing wage pressures despite weak productivity growth. |
| Global Outlook | - Geopolitical risks remain high. - China’s economic policies and easing by some central banks pose uncertainties. |
| Policy Stance | - RBA committed to restrictive policy until confident of inflation nearing target range. |
Australia’s Cash Rate forecast stands at 4.35%, unchanged from the previous outcome, signaling steady monetary policy expectations.
Australia is set to announce its Cash Rate decision on Tuesday at 3:30 AM GMT.
11th December 2024
Wednesday
Wednesday
On Wednesday, significant economic updates are expected from both the United States and Canada, drawing the attention of global markets. The U.S. will release its latest inflation figures, offering insights into price trends and potential monetary policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, Canada will announce its Overnight Rate decision, a key indicator of the Bank of Canada’s stance on interest rates and its approach to managing economic conditions. These announcements are likely to impact currency valuations and market sentiment, as traders and investors assess their implications for future economic policies.
USD - Core CPI m/m
Core CPI (month-over-month) measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy. A result higher than the forecast is typically seen as positive for the currency. Consumer prices are a major driver of overall inflation, which plays a critical role in currency valuation. When inflation rises, central banks often respond by increasing interest rates to meet their mandate of controlling price stability, making Core CPI a closely watched indicator by traders and economists alike.
The core consumer price index (CPI), excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% in October, matching forecasts and bringing the annual core inflation rate to 3.3%. Shelter costs, a key driver, increased 0.4% for the month and 4.9% year-over-year, accounting for over half of the overall CPI gain. Used vehicle prices jumped 2.7%, while airline fares rose 3.2%, and egg prices dropped 6.4% but remained 30.4% higher annually. The data bolstered expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut, but uncertainty about inflation and future policy under the incoming Trump administration has tempered expectations for further cuts in 2025.
The core consumer price index (CPI), excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% in October, matching forecasts and bringing the annual core inflation rate to 3.3%. Shelter costs, a key driver, increased 0.4% for the month and 4.9% year-over-year, accounting for over half of the overall CPI gain. Used vehicle prices jumped 2.7%, while airline fares rose 3.2%, and egg prices dropped 6.4% but remained 30.4% higher annually. The data bolstered expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut, but uncertainty about inflation and future policy under the incoming Trump administration has tempered expectations for further cuts in 2025.
TL;DR
- Core CPI (excluding food and energy): Rose 0.3% in October, with an annual increase of 3.3%, aligning with forecasts.
- Shelter costs: Increased 0.4% monthly and 4.9% year-over-year, contributing over half of the overall CPI gain.
- Used vehicle prices: Jumped 2.7% in October.
- Airline fares: Rose 3.2% for the month.
- Egg prices: Dropped 6.4% in October but remained 30.4% higher than the previous year.
- Federal Reserve outlook: Data supports expectations for a December rate cut, though uncertainty about inflation and policy under the incoming Trump administration clouds 2025 rate forecasts.
The forecast for Core CPI m/m is 0.3%, consistent with the previous result.
USD - CPI m/m
The CPI m/m measures changes in consumer goods and service prices, where higher-than-forecast values benefit the currency; it's crucial to traders as it reflects inflation trends influencing central bank interest rate decisions, derived from comparing sampled average prices.
In October 2024, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-over-month, maintaining the trend from the previous three months and aligning with expectations. The increase was driven primarily by a 0.4% rise in shelter costs, which accounted for more than half of the gain, while food prices edged up 0.2% and energy costs remained flat. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also climbed 0.3%, consistent with forecasts. Notable price increases included used cars and trucks (2.7%), airline fares (3.2%), and medical care (0.4%), while declines were seen in apparel (-1.5%), communication (-0.6%), and household furnishings.
In October 2024, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-over-month, maintaining the trend from the previous three months and aligning with expectations. The increase was driven primarily by a 0.4% rise in shelter costs, which accounted for more than half of the gain, while food prices edged up 0.2% and energy costs remained flat. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also climbed 0.3%, consistent with forecasts. Notable price increases included used cars and trucks (2.7%), airline fares (3.2%), and medical care (0.4%), while declines were seen in apparel (-1.5%), communication (-0.6%), and household furnishings.
TL;DR
- Overall CPI: Increased 0.2% in October, consistent with the previous three months and forecasts.
- Key Driver: Shelter costs rose 0.4%, contributing over half of the CPI gain.
- Food Prices: Edged up 0.2%.
- Energy Costs: Remained flat.
- Core CPI (excludes food & energy): Climbed 0.3%, matching expectations.
- Notable Increases:
- Used cars and trucks: +2.7%
- Airline fares: +3.2%
- Medical care: +0.4%
- Notable Declines:
- Apparel: -1.5%
- Communication: -0.6%
- Household furnishings: -0.4%
USD - CPI y/y
The CPI y/y measures the annual change in consumer goods and service prices, where higher-than-forecast values benefit the currency; it is vital to traders as it indicates inflation trends that drive central bank interest rate decisions, derived by comparing sampled average prices year-over-year.
The U.S. annual inflation rate rose to 2.6% in October 2024, up from 2.4% in September, marking the first increase in seven months and aligning with market expectations. This rise, driven largely by shelter costs, which climbed 4.9% year-over-year, reflects moderating declines in energy prices and slower food inflation at 2.1%. Monthly consumer price growth held steady at 0.2%, with shelter accounting for over half of the gain. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, remained unchanged at 3.3% annually, further signaling persistent price pressures in key categories despite easing elsewhere.
The U.S. annual inflation rate rose to 2.6% in October 2024, up from 2.4% in September, marking the first increase in seven months and aligning with market expectations. This rise, driven largely by shelter costs, which climbed 4.9% year-over-year, reflects moderating declines in energy prices and slower food inflation at 2.1%. Monthly consumer price growth held steady at 0.2%, with shelter accounting for over half of the gain. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, remained unchanged at 3.3% annually, further signaling persistent price pressures in key categories despite easing elsewhere.
TL;DR
- Annual Inflation Rate: Rose to 2.6% in October, up from 2.4% in September, marking the first increase in seven months and meeting expectations.
- Key Driver: Shelter costs increased 4.9% year-over-year, contributing significantly to inflation.
- Energy Prices: Declines moderated, slowing the downward pressure on overall inflation.
- Food Inflation: Slowed to 2.1% year-over-year.
- Monthly Consumer Price Growth: Held steady at 0.2%, with shelter accounting for over half the increase.
- Core Inflation (excludes food & energy): Unchanged at 3.3% annually, indicating persistent price pressures in certain categories.
The CPI y/y forecast is 2.7%, up from the previous outcome of 2.6%.The upcoming inflation data is scheduled for release on Wednesday at 1:30 PM GMT, providing critical insights for market analysis.
CAD - Overnight Rate
The Overnight Rate represents the interest rate at which major financial institutions borrow and lend overnight funds. Higher-than-expected rates often strengthen the currency, as traders closely monitor this key indicator to predict future rate movements.
The Bank of Canada reduced its policy interest rate by 50 basis points, bringing the overnight rate target to 3.75% as part of its efforts to manage economic growth and inflation while normalizing its balance sheet. The rate cut was driven by slower economic growth, with Canada's GDP slowing from 2% in the first half of the year to 1.75% in the latter half. Inflation decreased from 2.7% in June to 1.6% in September, supported by lower global oil prices. However, challenges persisted, including a 6.5% unemployment rate and high shelter costs. Despite these issues, the Bank projected moderate GDP growth in the coming years, forecasting 1.2% in 2024 and over 2% in 2025 and 2026. It also indicated the possibility of further interest rate reductions depending on future economic conditions.
The Bank of Canada reduced its policy interest rate by 50 basis points, bringing the overnight rate target to 3.75% as part of its efforts to manage economic growth and inflation while normalizing its balance sheet. The rate cut was driven by slower economic growth, with Canada's GDP slowing from 2% in the first half of the year to 1.75% in the latter half. Inflation decreased from 2.7% in June to 1.6% in September, supported by lower global oil prices. However, challenges persisted, including a 6.5% unemployment rate and high shelter costs. Despite these issues, the Bank projected moderate GDP growth in the coming years, forecasting 1.2% in 2024 and over 2% in 2025 and 2026. It also indicated the possibility of further interest rate reductions depending on future economic conditions.
TL;DR
| Category | Details |
|---|
| Policy Rate Cut | Reduced by 50 basis points to 3.75%. |
| Reason for Rate Cut | Slowing GDP growth: 2% (H1) to 1.75% (H2) in 2024. |
| Inflation | Declined from 2.7% (June) to 1.6% (September), aided by lower oil prices. |
| Unemployment Rate | 6.5%. |
| Shelter Costs | Remain high despite other easing pressures. |
| GDP Growth Forecast | 2024: 1.2%; 2025-2026: Above 2%. |
| Future Rate Outlook | Potential for further reductions based on economic conditions. |
The forecast for Canada's Overnight Rate stands at 3.25%, down from the previous outcome of 3.75%.
Canada is set to announce its Overnight Rate on Wednesday at 2:45 PM GMT.
12th December 2024
Thursday
Thursday
On December 12th, several key economic announcements will shape the markets. Australia kicks off with its Employment Change and Unemployment Rate figures, providing insights into its labor market. Switzerland follows with the Swiss National Bank (SNB) announcing its Policy Rate decision. The Eurozone will take the spotlight next as the European Central Bank (ECB) releases its Main Refinancing Rate, a key indicator of monetary policy direction. Finally, the U.S. will report Core PPI m/m, PPI m/m, and Unemployment Claims, offering a comprehensive view of inflation and labor market trends. These updates are crucial for gauging global economic momentum.
AUD - Employment Change
Australia’s labor market showed signs of slowing in October, with Employment Change figures revealing a modest addition of 15,900 jobs, significantly lower than September’s revised 61,300 and the forecasted 25,000. Full-time employment grew by 9,700 jobs, while part-time roles increased by 6,200, both down from previous gains. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, matching market expectations, but the participation rate dipped slightly to 67.1% from 67.2%. The data highlights a cooling trend in job growth, raising concerns about the broader economic outlook.
TL;DR
- Job Growth Slows: October saw a modest addition of 15,900 jobs, compared to September's revised 61,300 and the forecasted 25,000.
- Employment Breakdown: Full-time jobs increased by 9,700; part-time jobs rose by 6,200.
- Unemployment Rate: Held steady at 4.1%, in line with expectations.
- Participation Rate: Dropped slightly to 67.1% from 67.2%.
- Economic Concerns: Data indicates a cooling trend in job growth, raising concerns about the broader economy.
The forecast has been adjusted to 26,000, up from the previous 15,900.
AUD - Unemployment Rate
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1% in October 2024, marking the third consecutive month at this level. While employment rose by 16,000 people and unemployment increased by 8,000, population growth outpaced these changes, leading to a slight dip in the participation rate to 67.1%. Employment growth slowed to 0.1%, the lowest rate in recent months, though the employment-to-population ratio remained at a historic high of 64.4%. Hours worked also grew by 0.1%, aligning with employment growth. The underemployment rate dropped to 6.2%, and the underutilisation rate stayed at 10.4%, reflecting a relatively tight labour market. Female participation rates reached a record 63.1%, highlighting a significant post-pandemic increase.
TL;DR
| Metric | October 2024 Value | Details |
|---|
| Unemployment Rate | 4.1% | Steady for the third consecutive month. |
| Employment Change | +16,000 | Employment rose, but growth slowed to 0.1%. |
| Unemployment Change | +8,000 | Increase partly due to population growth. |
| Participation Rate | 67.1% | Slight dip from population growth impact. |
| Employment-to-Population | 64.4% | Maintained historic high. |
| Hours Worked | +0.1% | Aligned with employment growth. |
| Underemployment Rate | 6.2% | Dropped, indicating tighter labour market. |
| Underutilisation Rate | 10.4% | Remained steady. |
| Female Participation | 63.1% | Record high, boosted post-pandemic. |
The forecast stands at 4.2%, up from the previous 4.1%.
The Employment Change and Unemployment Rate report is scheduled for release on Thursday at 12:30 AM GMT.
CHF - SNB Policy Rate
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) announced a reduction in its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points, bringing it down to 1.0%, effective from 27 September 2024. This decision followed a significant decrease in inflationary pressure, aided by the strengthening of the Swiss franc and a decline in imported goods prices. In August, inflation stood at 1.1%, down from 1.4% in May, and the SNB projected it would average 1.2% in 2024, dropping further to 0.6% in 2025 and 0.7% in 2026. The central bank remained prepared to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary, and future rate cuts were anticipated to maintain price stability. Swiss economic growth had been solid, particularly in the chemicals and pharmaceuticals sectors, though overall growth was expected to slow due to the franc's appreciation and global economic moderation. The SNB anticipated GDP growth of around 1% for 2024, with a slight rise in unemployment and a temporary dip in production capacity utilization. Risks remained, including potential global geopolitical tensions and persistently high inflation in some countries. Growth was forecast to improve in 2025, with GDP expected to increase by 1.5%.
TL;DR
| Metric/Aspect | Details |
|---|
| Policy Rate Change | Reduced by 0.25 percentage points to 1.0% (effective 27 September 2024). |
| Reason for Rate Cut | Lower inflationary pressure, strong Swiss franc, and reduced imported goods prices. |
| Inflation Rates | 2024: 1.2% (projected), 2025: 0.6% (projected), 2026: 0.7% (projected). |
| Current Inflation | August 2024: 1.1% (down from 1.4% in May 2024). |
| Economic Growth (GDP) | 2024: ~1% (projected), 2025: 1.5% (projected). |
| Economic Sectors | Growth solid in chemicals and pharmaceuticals; overall slowing due to franc appreciation. |
| Unemployment Rate | Slight increase anticipated in 2024. |
| Capacity Utilization | Temporary dip expected in production capacity. |
| Global Risks | Geopolitical tensions, high inflation in some countries. |
| SNB Actions | Prepared to intervene in forex markets if necessary; future rate cuts possible. |
The forecast stands at 0.75%, compared to the previous 1.00%.
The SNB Policy Rate will be released on Thursday at 8:30 AM GMT.
EUR - Main Refinancing Rate
The European Central Bank (ECB) reduced its main refinancing rate by 25 basis points to 3.40%, effective October 23, 2024. This marked the third consecutive rate cut that year. The move, accompanied by cuts to the deposit facility and marginal lending facility rates, reflected the ECB's updated inflation outlook, which showed disinflation had progressed as anticipated. Despite inflation falling below the ECB’s 2% target for the first time in over three years, rising wage pressures and economic uncertainties continued to influence inflation dynamics. Inflation was projected to rise in subsequent months but was expected to decline toward the 2% target by 2025. The ECB had remained focused on maintaining restrictive monetary policy to meet its medium-term inflation goals, relying on a data-driven approach for future rate decisions.
TL;DR
| Key Information | Details |
|---|
| Rate Cut | 25 basis points reduction to 3.40% |
| Effective Date | October 23, 2024 |
| Number of Rate Cuts in 2024 | Third consecutive rate cut |
| Additional Rate Cuts | Deposit facility and marginal lending facility rates also reduced |
| Reason for Rate Cut | Updated inflation outlook, showing progress in disinflation |
| Inflation | Fell below 2% target for the first time in over three years |
| Future Inflation Expectations | Expected to rise initially, but decline toward 2% target by 2025 |
| Economic Influences | Rising wage pressures, economic uncertainties |
| Monetary Policy Focus | Maintained restrictive stance to meet medium-term inflation goals |
| Future Rate Decisions | Data-driven approach |
The forecast stands at 3.15%, down from the previous 3.40%.
The next announcement of the Main Refinancing Rate is scheduled for Thursday at 1:15 PM GMT.
USD - Core PPI m/m
Core producer prices in the United States, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.3% in October 2024 from the prior month, matching market expectations and accelerating from a 0.2% rise in September. Annually, core producer prices rose 3.1%, the highest in four months, following an upwardly revised 2.9% gain in September and slightly exceeding forecasts of a 3% increase. This suggests continued pricing pressures in the production pipeline, reinforcing expectations of persistent inflationary trends in core sectors.
TL;DR
| Key Information | Details |
|---|
| Monthly Change | Increased by 0.3% in October 2024 (from September) |
| Monthly Change (Previous Month) | 0.2% rise in September |
| Annual Change | Increased by 3.1% in October 2024 |
| Previous Annual Change | 2.9% (revised for September 2024) |
| Market Expectations | October’s rise matched expectations |
| Inflation Trends | Suggests persistent inflationary pressures in core sectors |
| Forecasts | Annual increase slightly exceeded forecasts of 3% |
| Implication | Continued pricing pressures in the production pipeline |
The forecast stands at 0.2%, compared to the previous outcome of 0.3%.
USD - PPI m/m
Factory gate prices in the U.S. rose 0.2% month-over-month in October 2024, following an upwardly revised 0.1% gain in September and meeting market expectations. Service prices increased by 0.3%, driven in part by a 3.6% surge in portfolio management costs, while goods prices edged up 0.1%, reversing two months of declines, boosted by an 8.4% rise in carbon steel scrap. On an annual basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) climbed 2.4%, exceeding forecasts of 2.3% and up from a revised 1.9% in September. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% month-over-month, with the annual core rate accelerating to 3.1% from a revised 2.9%, slightly above market expectations of 3%. These figures highlight persistent inflationary pressures across both services and goods.
TL;DR
| Key Information | Details |
|---|
| Monthly Change (Overall) | Increased by 0.2% in October 2024 (from September) |
| Monthly Change (Previous Month) | Upwardly revised 0.1% in September |
| Service Prices | Increased by 0.3%, driven by 3.6% rise in portfolio management |
| Goods Prices | Rose by 0.1%, reversing two months of declines, boosted by 8.4% rise in carbon steel scrap |
| Annual Change (PPI) | Rose 2.4%, exceeding forecasts of 2.3% |
| Previous Annual Change (PPI) | Revised 1.9% in September |
| Core PPI (Excluding Food and Energy) | Monthly rise of 0.3% |
| Core Annual Change (PPI) | Increased to 3.1%, slightly exceeding market expectations of 3% |
| Implication | Persistent inflationary pressures across services and goods |
The forecast remains at 0.2%, unchanged from the previous outcome.
USD – Unemployment Claims
In the week ending November 30, 2024, seasonally adjusted Initial Jobless Claims in the United States rose to 224,000, marking a 9,000 increase from the prior week's revised level of 215,000. The 4-week moving average also edged up to 218,250, reflecting a 750 increase from the revised average of 217,500. Meanwhile, the insured unemployment rate for the week ending November 23 decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 1.2%. Insured unemployment figures declined to 1,871,000, down 25,000 from the previous week's revised total of 1,896,000, with the 4-week moving average slightly reduced to 1,884,250. Historically, Initial Jobless Claims in the U.S. have averaged 363,450 since 1967, peaking at 6,137,000 in April 2020 and hitting a record low of 162,000 in November 1968. These figures suggest a modest uptick in claims but remain relatively low compared to historical trends.
TL;DR
| Key Information | Details |
|---|
| Initial Jobless Claims (Week Ending Nov 30) | 224,000, up 9,000 from the previous week (215,000) |
| 4-Week Moving Average (Initial Claims) | 218,250, up 750 from the previous week's revised average (217,500) |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (Week Ending Nov 23) | Decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 1.2% |
| Insured Unemployment (Week Ending Nov 23) | 1,871,000, down 25,000 from the previous week's revised total (1,896,000) |
| 4-Week Moving Average (Insured Unemployment) | Slightly reduced to 1,884,250 |
| Historical Averages (Initial Jobless Claims) | Average since 1967: 363,450; Peak: 6,137,000 (April 2020); Low: 162,000 (November 1968) |
| Implication | Modest uptick in claims, but still relatively low compared to historical trends |
The forecast stands at 221,000 compared to previous 224,000 outcome.
The upcoming releases for Core PPI m/m, PPI m/m, and Unemployment Claims are scheduled for Thursday at 1:30 PM GMT.
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