Reply to thread

Message: [QUOTE="MiloPlexyTrade, post: 239243, member: 122944"] [RIGHT][B]11th December 2024 Wednesday[/B][/RIGHT] [B] [/B] [JUSTIFY][B]On Wednesday, significant economic updates are expected from both the United States and Canada, drawing the attention of global markets. The U.S. will release its latest inflation figures, offering insights into price trends and potential monetary policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, Canada will announce its Overnight Rate decision, a key indicator of the Bank of Canada’s stance on interest rates and its approach to managing economic conditions. These announcements are likely to impact currency valuations and market sentiment, as traders and investors assess their implications for future economic policies.[/B][/JUSTIFY] [CENTER][B][U]USD - Core CPI m/m[/U][/B][/CENTER] [JUSTIFY]Core CPI (month-over-month) measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy. A result higher than the forecast is typically seen as positive for the currency. Consumer prices are a major driver of overall inflation, which plays a critical role in currency valuation. When inflation rises, central banks often respond by increasing interest rates to meet their mandate of controlling price stability, making Core CPI a closely watched indicator by traders and economists alike. The core consumer price index (CPI), excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% in October, matching forecasts and bringing the annual core inflation rate to 3.3%. Shelter costs, a key driver, increased 0.4% for the month and 4.9% year-over-year, accounting for over half of the overall CPI gain. Used vehicle prices jumped 2.7%, while airline fares rose 3.2%, and egg prices dropped 6.4% but remained 30.4% higher annually. The data bolstered expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut, but uncertainty about inflation and future policy under the incoming Trump administration has tempered expectations for further cuts in 2025.[/JUSTIFY] [B]TL;DR[/B] [LIST] [*][JUSTIFY][B]Core CPI (excluding food and energy)[/B]: Rose 0.3% in October, with an annual increase of 3.3%, aligning with forecasts.[/JUSTIFY] [*][JUSTIFY][B]Shelter costs[/B]: Increased 0.4% monthly and 4.9% year-over-year, contributing over half of the overall CPI gain.[/JUSTIFY] [*][JUSTIFY][B]Used vehicle prices[/B]: Jumped 2.7% in October.[/JUSTIFY] [*][JUSTIFY][B]Airline fares[/B]: Rose 3.2% for the month.[/JUSTIFY] [*][JUSTIFY][B]Egg prices[/B]: Dropped 6.4% in October but remained 30.4% higher than the previous year.[/JUSTIFY] [*][JUSTIFY][B]Federal Reserve outlook[/B]: Data supports expectations for a December rate cut, though uncertainty about inflation and policy under the incoming Trump administration clouds 2025 rate forecasts.[/JUSTIFY] [/LIST] The forecast for C[B]ore CPI m/m[/B] is [B]0.3%, [/B]consistent with the previous result. [ATTACH type="full"]30625[/ATTACH] [CENTER] [B][U]USD - CPI m/m[/U][/B][/CENTER] [JUSTIFY]The CPI m/m measures changes in consumer goods and service prices, where higher-than-forecast values benefit the currency; it's crucial to traders as it reflects inflation trends influencing central bank interest rate decisions, derived from comparing sampled average prices. In October 2024, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-over-month, maintaining the trend from the previous three months and aligning with expectations. The increase was driven primarily by a 0.4% rise in shelter costs, which accounted for more than half of the gain, while food prices edged up 0.2% and energy costs remained flat. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also climbed 0.3%, consistent with forecasts. Notable price increases included used cars and trucks (2.7%), airline fares (3.2%), and medical care (0.4%), while declines were seen in apparel (-1.5%), communication (-0.6%), and household furnishings.[/JUSTIFY] [B]TL;DR[/B] [LIST] [*][JUSTIFY][B]Overall CPI[/B]: Increased 0.2% in October, consistent with the previous three months and forecasts.[/JUSTIFY] [*][JUSTIFY][B]Key Driver[/B]: Shelter costs rose 0.4%, contributing over half of the CPI gain.[/JUSTIFY] [*][JUSTIFY][B]Food Prices[/B]: Edged up 0.2%.[/JUSTIFY] [*][JUSTIFY][B]Energy Costs[/B]: Remained flat.[/JUSTIFY] [*][JUSTIFY][B]Core CPI (excludes food & energy)[/B]: Climbed 0.3%, matching expectations.[/JUSTIFY] [*][B]Notable Increases[/B]: [LIST] [*][JUSTIFY]Used cars and trucks: +2.7%[/JUSTIFY] [*][JUSTIFY]Airline fares: +3.2%[/JUSTIFY] [*][JUSTIFY]Medical care: +0.4%[/JUSTIFY] [/LIST] [*][B]Notable Declines[/B]: [LIST] [*][JUSTIFY]Apparel: -1.5%[/JUSTIFY] [*][JUSTIFY]Communication: -0.6%[/JUSTIFY] [*][JUSTIFY]Household furnishings: -0.4%[/JUSTIFY] [/LIST] [/LIST] The [B]CPI m/m[/B] forecast is [B]0.3%,[/B] an increase from the previous outcome of [B]0.2%.[/B] [ATTACH type="full"]30626[/ATTACH] [CENTER] [B][U]USD - CPI y/y[/U][/B][/CENTER] [JUSTIFY]The CPI y/y measures the annual change in consumer goods and service prices, where higher-than-forecast values benefit the currency; it is vital to traders as it indicates inflation trends that drive central bank interest rate decisions, derived by comparing sampled average prices year-over-year. The U.S. annual inflation rate rose to 2.6% in October 2024, up from 2.4% in September, marking the first increase in seven months and aligning with market expectations. This rise, driven largely by shelter costs, which climbed 4.9% year-over-year, reflects moderating declines in energy prices and slower food inflation at 2.1%. Monthly consumer price growth held steady at 0.2%, with shelter accounting for over half of the gain. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, remained unchanged at 3.3% annually, further signaling persistent price pressures in key categories despite easing elsewhere.[/JUSTIFY] [B]TL;DR[/B] [LIST] [*][JUSTIFY][B]Annual Inflation Rate[/B]: Rose to 2.6% in October, up from 2.4% in September, marking the first increase in seven months and meeting expectations.[/JUSTIFY] [*][JUSTIFY][B]Key Driver[/B]: Shelter costs increased 4.9% year-over-year, contributing significantly to inflation.[/JUSTIFY] [*][JUSTIFY][B]Energy Prices[/B]: Declines moderated, slowing the downward pressure on overall inflation.[/JUSTIFY] [*][JUSTIFY][B]Food Inflation[/B]: Slowed to 2.1% year-over-year.[/JUSTIFY] [*][JUSTIFY][B]Monthly Consumer Price Growth[/B]: Held steady at 0.2%, with shelter accounting for over half the increase.[/JUSTIFY] [*][JUSTIFY][B]Core Inflation (excludes food & energy)[/B]: Unchanged at 3.3% annually, indicating persistent price pressures in certain categories.[/JUSTIFY] [/LIST] [JUSTIFY][/JUSTIFY] The [B]CPI y/y [/B]forecast is [B]2.7%,[/B] up from the previous outcome of [B]2.6%.[/B] The upcoming [B]inflation data [/B]is scheduled for release on [B]Wednesday [/B]at [B]1:30 PM GMT, [/B]providing critical insights for market analysis. [ATTACH type="full"]30627[/ATTACH] [CENTER] [B][U]CAD - Overnight Rate[/U][/B][/CENTER] [JUSTIFY]The Overnight Rate represents the interest rate at which major financial institutions borrow and lend overnight funds. Higher-than-expected rates often strengthen the currency, as traders closely monitor this key indicator to predict future rate movements. The Bank of Canada reduced its policy interest rate by 50 basis points, bringing the overnight rate target to 3.75% as part of its efforts to manage economic growth and inflation while normalizing its balance sheet. The rate cut was driven by slower economic growth, with Canada's GDP slowing from 2% in the first half of the year to 1.75% in the latter half. Inflation decreased from 2.7% in June to 1.6% in September, supported by lower global oil prices. However, challenges persisted, including a 6.5% unemployment rate and high shelter costs. Despite these issues, the Bank projected moderate GDP growth in the coming years, forecasting 1.2% in 2024 and over 2% in 2025 and 2026. It also indicated the possibility of further interest rate reductions depending on future economic conditions.[/JUSTIFY] [B]TL;DR[/B] [TABLE] [TR] [TH][B]Category[/B][/TH] [TH][B]Details[/B][/TH] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Policy Rate Cut[/B][/TD] [TD]Reduced by 50 basis points to 3.75%.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Reason for Rate Cut[/B][/TD] [TD]Slowing GDP growth: 2% (H1) to 1.75% (H2) in 2024.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Inflation[/B][/TD] [TD]Declined from 2.7% (June) to 1.6% (September), aided by lower oil prices.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Unemployment Rate[/B][/TD] [TD]6.5%.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Shelter Costs[/B][/TD] [TD]Remain high despite other easing pressures.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]GDP Growth Forecast[/B][/TD] [TD]2024: 1.2%; 2025-2026: Above 2%.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Future Rate Outlook[/B][/TD] [TD]Potential for further reductions based on economic conditions.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] The forecast for [B]Canada's Overnight Rate[/B] stands at [B]3.25%,[/B] down from the previous outcome of [B]3.75%. Canada[/B] is set to announce its [B]Overnight Rate[/B] on [B]Wednesday [/B]at [B]2:45 PM GMT. [ATTACH type="full"]30628[/ATTACH][/B] [/QUOTE]

Verification

Top Bottom