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Message: [QUOTE="MiloPlexyTrade, post: 239286, member: 122944"] [RIGHT][B]12th December 2024 Thursday[/B] [/RIGHT] [JUSTIFY][B]On December 12th, several key economic announcements will shape the markets. Australia kicks off with its Employment Change and Unemployment Rate figures, providing insights into its labor market. Switzerland follows with the Swiss National Bank (SNB) announcing its Policy Rate decision. The Eurozone will take the spotlight next as the European Central Bank (ECB) releases its Main Refinancing Rate, a key indicator of monetary policy direction. Finally, the U.S. will report Core PPI m/m, PPI m/m, and Unemployment Claims, offering a comprehensive view of inflation and labor market trends. These updates are crucial for gauging global economic momentum.[/B][/JUSTIFY] [B] [/B] [CENTER][B][U]AUD - Employment Change[/U][/B][/CENTER] [JUSTIFY]Australia’s labor market showed signs of slowing in October, with Employment Change figures revealing a modest addition of 15,900 jobs, significantly lower than September’s revised 61,300 and the forecasted 25,000. Full-time employment grew by 9,700 jobs, while part-time roles increased by 6,200, both down from previous gains. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, matching market expectations, but the participation rate dipped slightly to 67.1% from 67.2%. The data highlights a cooling trend in job growth, raising concerns about the broader economic outlook.[/JUSTIFY] [B]TL;DR[/B] [LIST] [*][JUSTIFY][B]Job Growth Slows[/B]: October saw a modest addition of 15,900 jobs, compared to September's revised 61,300 and the forecasted 25,000.[/JUSTIFY] [*][JUSTIFY][B]Employment Breakdown[/B]: Full-time jobs increased by 9,700; part-time jobs rose by 6,200.[/JUSTIFY] [*][JUSTIFY][B]Unemployment Rate[/B]: Held steady at 4.1%, in line with expectations.[/JUSTIFY] [*][JUSTIFY][B]Participation Rate[/B]: Dropped slightly to 67.1% from 67.2%.[/JUSTIFY] [*][JUSTIFY][B]Economic Concerns[/B]: Data indicates a cooling trend in job growth, raising concerns about the broader economy.[/JUSTIFY] [/LIST] The forecast has been adjusted to [B]26,000, [/B]up from the previous [B]15,900.[/B] [ATTACH type="full"]30660[/ATTACH] [CENTER] [B][U]AUD - Unemployment Rate[/U][/B][/CENTER] [JUSTIFY]The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1% in October 2024, marking the third consecutive month at this level. While employment rose by 16,000 people and unemployment increased by 8,000, population growth outpaced these changes, leading to a slight dip in the participation rate to 67.1%. Employment growth slowed to 0.1%, the lowest rate in recent months, though the employment-to-population ratio remained at a historic high of 64.4%. Hours worked also grew by 0.1%, aligning with employment growth. The underemployment rate dropped to 6.2%, and the underutilisation rate stayed at 10.4%, reflecting a relatively tight labour market. Female participation rates reached a record 63.1%, highlighting a significant post-pandemic increase.[/JUSTIFY] [B]TL;DR[/B] [TABLE] [TR] [TH][B]Metric[/B][/TH] [TH][B]October 2024 Value[/B][/TH] [TH][B]Details[/B][/TH] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Unemployment Rate[/B][/TD] [TD]4.1%[/TD] [TD]Steady for the third consecutive month.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Employment Change[/B][/TD] [TD]+16,000[/TD] [TD]Employment rose, but growth slowed to 0.1%.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Unemployment Change[/B][/TD] [TD]+8,000[/TD] [TD]Increase partly due to population growth.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Participation Rate[/B][/TD] [TD]67.1%[/TD] [TD]Slight dip from population growth impact.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Employment-to-Population[/B][/TD] [TD]64.4%[/TD] [TD]Maintained historic high.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Hours Worked[/B][/TD] [TD]+0.1%[/TD] [TD]Aligned with employment growth.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Underemployment Rate[/B][/TD] [TD]6.2%[/TD] [TD]Dropped, indicating tighter labour market.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Underutilisation Rate[/B][/TD] [TD]10.4%[/TD] [TD]Remained steady.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Female Participation[/B][/TD] [TD]63.1%[/TD] [TD]Record high, boosted post-pandemic.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] The forecast stands at [B]4.2%, [/B]up from the previous [B]4.1%.[/B] The E[B]mployment Change and Unemployment Rate [/B]report is scheduled for release on [B]Thursday [/B]at [B]12:30 AM GMT.[/B] [ATTACH type="full"]30661[/ATTACH] [CENTER][B][U]CHF - SNB Policy Rate[/U][/B][/CENTER] [JUSTIFY]The Swiss National Bank (SNB) announced a reduction in its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points, bringing it down to 1.0%, effective from 27 September 2024. This decision followed a significant decrease in inflationary pressure, aided by the strengthening of the Swiss franc and a decline in imported goods prices. In August, inflation stood at 1.1%, down from 1.4% in May, and the SNB projected it would average 1.2% in 2024, dropping further to 0.6% in 2025 and 0.7% in 2026. The central bank remained prepared to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary, and future rate cuts were anticipated to maintain price stability. Swiss economic growth had been solid, particularly in the chemicals and pharmaceuticals sectors, though overall growth was expected to slow due to the franc's appreciation and global economic moderation. The SNB anticipated GDP growth of around 1% for 2024, with a slight rise in unemployment and a temporary dip in production capacity utilization. Risks remained, including potential global geopolitical tensions and persistently high inflation in some countries. Growth was forecast to improve in 2025, with GDP expected to increase by 1.5%.[/JUSTIFY] [B]TL;DR[/B] [TABLE] [TR] [TH][B]Metric/Aspect[/B][/TH] [TH][B]Details[/B][/TH] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Policy Rate Change[/B][/TD] [TD]Reduced by 0.25 percentage points to 1.0% (effective 27 September 2024).[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Reason for Rate Cut[/B][/TD] [TD]Lower inflationary pressure, strong Swiss franc, and reduced imported goods prices.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Inflation Rates[/B][/TD] [TD]2024: 1.2% (projected), 2025: 0.6% (projected), 2026: 0.7% (projected).[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Current Inflation[/B][/TD] [TD]August 2024: 1.1% (down from 1.4% in May 2024).[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Economic Growth (GDP)[/B][/TD] [TD]2024: ~1% (projected), 2025: 1.5% (projected).[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Economic Sectors[/B][/TD] [TD]Growth solid in chemicals and pharmaceuticals; overall slowing due to franc appreciation.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Unemployment Rate[/B][/TD] [TD]Slight increase anticipated in 2024.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Capacity Utilization[/B][/TD] [TD]Temporary dip expected in production capacity.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Global Risks[/B][/TD] [TD]Geopolitical tensions, high inflation in some countries.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]SNB Actions[/B][/TD] [TD]Prepared to intervene in forex markets if necessary; future rate cuts possible.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] The forecast stands at [B]0.75%,[/B] compared to the previous [B]1.00%.[/B] The [B]SNB Policy Rate[/B] will be released on [B]Thursday [/B]at[B] 8:30 AM GMT.[/B] [ATTACH type="full"]30662[/ATTACH] [CENTER] [B][U]EUR - Main Refinancing Rate[/U][/B][/CENTER] [JUSTIFY]The European Central Bank (ECB) reduced its main refinancing rate by 25 basis points to 3.40%, effective October 23, 2024. This marked the third consecutive rate cut that year. The move, accompanied by cuts to the deposit facility and marginal lending facility rates, reflected the ECB's updated inflation outlook, which showed disinflation had progressed as anticipated. Despite inflation falling below the ECB’s 2% target for the first time in over three years, rising wage pressures and economic uncertainties continued to influence inflation dynamics. Inflation was projected to rise in subsequent months but was expected to decline toward the 2% target by 2025. The ECB had remained focused on maintaining restrictive monetary policy to meet its medium-term inflation goals, relying on a data-driven approach for future rate decisions.[/JUSTIFY] [B]TL;DR[/B] [TABLE] [TR] [TH][B]Key Information[/B][/TH] [TH][B]Details[/B][/TH] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Rate Cut[/B][/TD] [TD]25 basis points reduction to 3.40%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Effective Date[/B][/TD] [TD]October 23, 2024[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Number of Rate Cuts in 2024[/B][/TD] [TD]Third consecutive rate cut[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Additional Rate Cuts[/B][/TD] [TD]Deposit facility and marginal lending facility rates also reduced[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Reason for Rate Cut[/B][/TD] [TD]Updated inflation outlook, showing progress in disinflation[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Inflation[/B][/TD] [TD]Fell below 2% target for the first time in over three years[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Future Inflation Expectations[/B][/TD] [TD]Expected to rise initially, but decline toward 2% target by 2025[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Economic Influences[/B][/TD] [TD]Rising wage pressures, economic uncertainties[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Monetary Policy Focus[/B][/TD] [TD]Maintained restrictive stance to meet medium-term inflation goals[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Future Rate Decisions[/B][/TD] [TD]Data-driven approach[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] The forecast stands at [B]3.15%, down [/B]from the previous [B]3.40%.[/B] The next announcement of the[B] Main Refinancing Rate [/B]is scheduled for [B]Thursday [/B]at [B]1:15 PM GMT.[/B] [ATTACH type="full"]30663[/ATTACH] [CENTER] [B][U]USD - Core PPI m/m[/U][/B][/CENTER] [JUSTIFY]Core producer prices in the United States, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.3% in October 2024 from the prior month, matching market expectations and accelerating from a 0.2% rise in September. Annually, core producer prices rose 3.1%, the highest in four months, following an upwardly revised 2.9% gain in September and slightly exceeding forecasts of a 3% increase. This suggests continued pricing pressures in the production pipeline, reinforcing expectations of persistent inflationary trends in core sectors.[/JUSTIFY] [B]TL;DR[/B] [TABLE] [TR] [TH][B]Key Information[/B][/TH] [TH][B]Details[/B][/TH] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Monthly Change[/B][/TD] [TD]Increased by 0.3% in October 2024 (from September)[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Monthly Change (Previous Month)[/B][/TD] [TD]0.2% rise in September[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Annual Change[/B][/TD] [TD]Increased by 3.1% in October 2024[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Previous Annual Change[/B][/TD] [TD]2.9% (revised for September 2024)[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Market Expectations[/B][/TD] [TD]October’s rise matched expectations[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Inflation Trends[/B][/TD] [TD]Suggests persistent inflationary pressures in core sectors[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Forecasts[/B][/TD] [TD]Annual increase slightly exceeded forecasts of 3%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Implication[/B][/TD] [TD]Continued pricing pressures in the production pipeline[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] The forecast stands at [B]0.2%, [/B]compared to the previous outcome of [B]0.3%.[/B] [ATTACH type="full"]30664[/ATTACH] [CENTER] [B][U]USD - PPI m/m[/U][/B][/CENTER] [JUSTIFY]Factory gate prices in the U.S. rose 0.2% month-over-month in October 2024, following an upwardly revised 0.1% gain in September and meeting market expectations. Service prices increased by 0.3%, driven in part by a 3.6% surge in portfolio management costs, while goods prices edged up 0.1%, reversing two months of declines, boosted by an 8.4% rise in carbon steel scrap. On an annual basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) climbed 2.4%, exceeding forecasts of 2.3% and up from a revised 1.9% in September. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% month-over-month, with the annual core rate accelerating to 3.1% from a revised 2.9%, slightly above market expectations of 3%. These figures highlight persistent inflationary pressures across both services and goods.[/JUSTIFY] [B]TL;DR[/B] [TABLE] [TR] [TH][B]Key Information[/B][/TH] [TH][B]Details[/B][/TH] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Monthly Change (Overall)[/B][/TD] [TD]Increased by 0.2% in October 2024 (from September)[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Monthly Change (Previous Month)[/B][/TD] [TD]Upwardly revised 0.1% in September[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Service Prices[/B][/TD] [TD]Increased by 0.3%, driven by 3.6% rise in portfolio management[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Goods Prices[/B][/TD] [TD]Rose by 0.1%, reversing two months of declines, boosted by 8.4% rise in carbon steel scrap[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Annual Change (PPI)[/B][/TD] [TD]Rose 2.4%, exceeding forecasts of 2.3%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Previous Annual Change (PPI)[/B][/TD] [TD]Revised 1.9% in September[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Core PPI (Excluding Food and Energy)[/B][/TD] [TD]Monthly rise of 0.3%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Core Annual Change (PPI)[/B][/TD] [TD]Increased to 3.1%, slightly exceeding market expectations of 3%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Implication[/B][/TD] [TD]Persistent inflationary pressures across services and goods[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [CENTER][/CENTER] The forecast remains at [B]0.2%, [/B]unchanged from the previous outcome. [ATTACH type="full"]30665[/ATTACH] [CENTER][B][U]USD – Unemployment Claims[/U][/B][/CENTER] [JUSTIFY]In the week ending November 30, 2024, seasonally adjusted Initial Jobless Claims in the United States rose to 224,000, marking a 9,000 increase from the prior week's revised level of 215,000. The 4-week moving average also edged up to 218,250, reflecting a 750 increase from the revised average of 217,500. Meanwhile, the insured unemployment rate for the week ending November 23 decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 1.2%. Insured unemployment figures declined to 1,871,000, down 25,000 from the previous week's revised total of 1,896,000, with the 4-week moving average slightly reduced to 1,884,250. Historically, Initial Jobless Claims in the U.S. have averaged 363,450 since 1967, peaking at 6,137,000 in April 2020 and hitting a record low of 162,000 in November 1968. These figures suggest a modest uptick in claims but remain relatively low compared to historical trends.[/JUSTIFY] [B]TL;DR[/B] [TABLE] [TR] [TH][B]Key Information[/B][/TH] [TH][B]Details[/B][/TH] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Initial Jobless Claims (Week Ending Nov 30)[/B][/TD] [TD]224,000, up 9,000 from the previous week (215,000)[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]4-Week Moving Average (Initial Claims)[/B][/TD] [TD]218,250, up 750 from the previous week's revised average (217,500)[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Insured Unemployment Rate (Week Ending Nov 23)[/B][/TD] [TD]Decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 1.2%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Insured Unemployment (Week Ending Nov 23)[/B][/TD] [TD]1,871,000, down 25,000 from the previous week's revised total (1,896,000)[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]4-Week Moving Average (Insured Unemployment)[/B][/TD] [TD]Slightly reduced to 1,884,250[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Historical Averages (Initial Jobless Claims)[/B][/TD] [TD]Average since 1967: 363,450; Peak: 6,137,000 (April 2020); Low: 162,000 (November 1968)[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Implication[/B][/TD] [TD]Modest uptick in claims, but still relatively low compared to historical trends[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] The forecast stands at [B]221,000 [/B]compared to previous [B]224,000 [/B]outcome. The upcoming releases for [B]Core PPI m/m, PPI m/m, and Unemployment Claims[/B] are scheduled for [B]Thursday [/B]at [B]1:30 PM GMT. [ATTACH type="full"]30666[/ATTACH][/B] [/QUOTE]

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