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Message: [QUOTE="MiloPlexyTrade, post: 239560, member: 122944"] [RIGHT][B]19th December 2023 Thursday[/B] [/RIGHT] [JUSTIFY][B]On December 19th, several key economic updates are anticipated from major economies. Japan is set to announce its Policy Rate, providing insights into the Bank of Japan's monetary stance. The UK will release its Official Bank Rate decision, highlighting its approach to tackling inflation and economic challenges. Meanwhile, the United States will reveal its Final GDP quarter-over-quarter data alongside Unemployment Claims, offering a comprehensive view of its economic performance and labor market conditions. These announcements are expected to draw significant market attention.[/B] [/JUSTIFY] [CENTER][B][U]JPY - BOJ Policy Rate[/U][/B][/CENTER] The BOJ Policy Rate measures the interest rate applied to excess current account balances held at the BOJ, with a higher-than-expected rate being favorable for the currency, as short-term interest rates are the key factor in currency valuation, influencing traders' expectations for future rate changes. [JUSTIFY]In October, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its key short-term interest rate at about 0.25%, aligning with market expectations and marking its highest level since 2008. This decision came as Japan adjusted to post-election political shifts and approached the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Governor Kazuo Ueda had emphasized a cautious approach due to rising global economic uncertainties, noting that the bank had the opportunity to assess potential risks following rate hikes made in March and July. The BoJ had indicated it would consider further rate adjustments if economic and inflation trends aligned with its expectations. In its quarterly outlook, the bank retained its projection for core inflation to reach 2.5% in fiscal year 2024, with inflation anticipated to moderate to about 1.9% in 2025 and 2026. GDP growth forecasts also remained unchanged, with an expected 0.6% in 2024, followed by increases to 1.1% in 2025 and 1.0% in 2026.[/JUSTIFY] [B]TL;DR[/B] [TABLE] [TR] [TH][B]Category[/B][/TH] [TH][B]Details[/B][/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD][B]Decision[/B][/TD] [TD]Maintained key short-term interest rate at ~0.25%.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][B]Significance[/B][/TD] [TD]Highest rate since 2008; aligned with market expectations.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][B]Context[/B][/TD] [TD]Post-election political adjustments in Japan; approaching U.S. presidential election.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][B]Governor's View[/B][/TD] [TD]Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized caution due to global economic uncertainties.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][B]Recent Rate Changes[/B][/TD] [TD]Rate hikes in March and July; risks under assessment.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][B]Future Adjustments[/B][/TD] [TD]Dependent on economic and inflation trends aligning with BoJ expectations.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][B]Inflation Outlook[/B][/TD] [TD]- 2.5% core inflation for FY 2024. - 1.9% in 2025 and 2026.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][B]GDP Growth Forecast[/B][/TD] [TD]- 0.6% in 2024. - 1.1% in 2025. - 1.0% in 2026.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] The forecast remains [B]unchanged [/B]at[B] 0.25%,[/B] matching the previous outcome. The next [B]BOJ policy rate [/B]decision will be released on [B]Thursday[/B], with the exact time still tentative. [CENTER][B][U]GBP - Official Bank Rate[/U][/B][/CENTER] The Official Bank Rate measures the interest rate at which the BOE lends to financial institutions overnight, with a rate higher than forecast being positive for the currency, as short-term interest rates are the key driver of currency valuation, prompting traders to monitor indicators to predict future rate changes. [JUSTIFY]The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) reduced the Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.75%, following an 8–1 vote, reflecting ongoing progress in disinflation as global shocks abated. However, domestic inflationary pressures had been easing more slowly, with CPI inflation, at 1.7% in September, expected to rise to around 2.5% by year-end as weaker energy prices fell out of annual comparisons. While the labor market had been loosening, it remained relatively tight by historical standards, and wage growth persisted at an elevated 4.8%. The MPC's projections, based on a scenario requiring a period of economic slack to normalize wage and price-setting behaviors, anticipated CPI inflation returning to the 2% target in the medium term. Additionally, the Autumn Budget was forecast to provide a 0.75% GDP boost but to increase inflation slightly by 0.5 percentage points at its peak. Policymakers stressed the uncertainties around wage dynamics and the potential structural shifts in inflation persistence, reaffirming the need for restrictive monetary policy to remain in place until the risks to sustainably achieving the inflation target had further dissipated.[/JUSTIFY] [B]TL;DR[/B] [TABLE] [TR] [TH][B]Category[/B][/TH] [TH][B]Details[/B][/TH] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Decision[/B][/TD] [TD]Bank Rate reduced by 0.25 percentage points to 4.75%.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]MPC Vote[/B][/TD] [TD]8–1 in favor of the rate cut.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Inflation Trends[/B][/TD] [TD]- CPI inflation at 1.7% in September. - Expected to rise to ~2.5% by year-end.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Inflation Drivers[/B][/TD] [TD]Impact of weaker energy prices diminishing from annual comparisons.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Labor Market[/B][/TD] [TD]Loosening but still tight historically; wage growth at 4.8%.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Inflation Outlook[/B][/TD] [TD]CPI inflation expected to return to 2% target in the medium term, contingent on economic slack.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Autumn Budget Impact[/B][/TD] [TD]- Forecasted to boost GDP by 0.75%. - Expected to raise inflation by 0.5 percentage points at peak.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Policy Focus[/B][/TD] [TD]Emphasis on maintaining restrictive monetary policy until inflation risks are mitigated.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] The forecast for the [B]UK's Official Bank Rate[/B] remains [B]unchanged [/B]at [B]4.75%, [/B]consistent with the previous outcome. The next [B]Official Bank Rate[/B] is set to be released on [B]Thursday [/B]at [B]12:00 PM GMT.[/B] [CENTER][B][U]USD - Final GDP q/q[/U][/B][/CENTER] The Final GDP q/q measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy, with a higher-than-forecast figure being favorable for the currency, as it is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy's health. [JUSTIFY]In Q3 2024, the US economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.8%, aligning with the advance estimate but moderating from the 3% growth observed in Q2. Personal consumption expenditures increased by 3.5%, marking the fastest pace since Q1 2023, primarily driven by a 5.6% rise in goods consumption and a 2.6% increase in services, both slightly revised downward. Government consumption growth remained unchanged at 5%. The contribution from net trade was slightly revised lower, at -0.57 percentage points, with exports revised to 7.5% and imports to 10.2%. Private inventories contributed a modest 0.11 percentage point reduction to overall growth, an improvement from the 0.17 percentage point drag in the advance estimate. Fixed investment grew by 1.7%, surpassing the initial forecast of 1.3%, with a notable 10.6% increase in equipment investment, while investments in structures and residential housing declined by 4.7% and 5%, respectively.[/JUSTIFY] [B]TL;DR[/B] [TABLE] [TR] [TH][B]Category[/B][/TH] [TH][B]Details[/B][/TH] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Q3 2024 GDP Growth[/B][/TD] [TD]Expanded at an annualized rate of 2.8%, matching the advance estimate, down from 3% in Q2.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Personal Consumption[/B][/TD] [TD]Increased by 3.5%, driven by a 5.6% rise in goods and 2.6% in services (slightly revised downward).[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Government Consumption[/B][/TD] [TD]Growth remained unchanged at 5%.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Net Trade Contribution[/B][/TD] [TD]Revised to -0.57 percentage points, with exports at 7.5% and imports at 10.2%.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Private Inventories Impact[/B][/TD] [TD]Contributed a modest 0.11 percentage point reduction, an improvement from the initial 0.17 percentage point drag.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Fixed Investment Growth[/B][/TD] [TD]Increased by 1.7%, surpassing the 1.3% forecast, with a 10.6% rise in equipment investment.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Residential and Structural Investment[/B][/TD] [TD]Declined by 4.7% and 5%, respectively.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] The forecast for the [B]Final GDP quarter-over-quarter[/B] stands at [B]2.8%,[/B] unchanged from the previous outcome. [CENTER][B][U]USD – Unemployment Claims[/U][/B][/CENTER] Unemployment Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time in the past week, with a lower-than-forecast figure being positive for the currency, as it signals overall economic health, with consumer spending closely linked to labor-market conditions, and is a key factor in monetary policy decisions. [JUSTIFY]In the first week of December 2024, U.S. initial jobless claims surged by 17,000 to 242,000, marking the largest increase since October and significantly surpassing market expectations of a drop to 220,000. This rise in claims also led to a 15,000 increase in outstanding claims, which reached 1,886,000, not far from the three-year high of 1,908,000 recorded in early November. This data raised concerns about the strength of the U.S. labor market, challenging recent expectations that it remained tight and could prompt further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, claims climbed by 99,140 to 310,366, primarily driven by increases in California, New York, and Texas.[/JUSTIFY] [B]TL;DR[/B] [TABLE] [TR] [TH][B]Category[/B][/TH] [TH][B]Details[/B][/TH] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Initial Jobless Claims (Week 1 Dec 2024)[/B][/TD] [TD]Increased by 17,000 to 242,000, the largest rise since October.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Market Expectations[/B][/TD] [TD]Surpassed expectations of a decrease to 220,000.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Outstanding Claims[/B][/TD] [TD]Rose by 15,000 to 1,886,000, approaching the three-year high of 1,908,000 in early November.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Labor Market Concerns[/B][/TD] [TD]Raised doubts about the strength of the U.S. labor market, challenging tight labor market expectations.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Federal Reserve Implications[/B][/TD] [TD]Could influence potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Non-Seasonally Adjusted Claims[/B][/TD] [TD]Increased by 99,140 to 310,366, driven by higher claims in California, New York, and Texas.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] The forecast for [B]Unemployment Claims[/B] stands at [B]229,000, [/B]down from the previous outcome of [B]242,000.[/B] The [B]Final GDP quarter-over-quarter [/B]and [B]Unemployment Claims data[/B] are scheduled for release on [B]Thursday[/B] at [B]1:30 PM GMT.[/B] [/QUOTE]

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