Technical Analysis #C-ORANGE : 2021-04-20

[IFC Markets]

Recommendation for Orange Juice:Buy​

Buy Stop : Above 117,5

Stop Loss : Below 107,5



RSI : Neutral

MACD : Neutral

MA(200) : Neutral

Fractals : Neutral

Parabolic SAR : Buy

Bollinger Bands : Neutral

Chart Analysis​

On the daily timeframe, ORANGE: D1 formed a Triangle and is moving towards the upper border of a wide neutral range. A number of technical analysis indicators formed signals for further growth. We do not rule out a bullish move if ORANGE rises above the Triangle resistance line, 200-day moving average and upper Bollinger band: 117.5. This level can be used as an entry point. We can place a stop loss below the Parabolic signal and the lower border of the neutral range: 107.5. After opening a pending order, we can move the stop loss to the next fractal low following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals. Thus, we change the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. After the transaction, the most risk-averse traders can switch to the four-hour chart and place a stop loss, moving it in the direction of the bias. If the price meets the stop loss (107.5) without activating the order (117.5), it is recommended to delete the order: the market sustains internal changes that have not been taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis​

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered its forecast for the US orange crop. Will the ORANGE quotes grow ? The USDA now expects the US orange harvest to amount to 4.45 million tons in the 2020/2021 agricultural season. This is 4% less than the previous estimate and 15% less than in the 2019/2020 season. At the same time, the orange crop in Florida may decrease by 23%, in California - by 4%, and in Texas - by 22%. Recall that in the previous 2019/2020 season, the orange harvest decreased by almost 4% compared to the 2018/2019 season. Thus, the negative dynamics may last for 2 seasons in a row. US stocks of frozen orange juice concentrate in February this year were 16% lower than in February 2020.