Technical Analysis #C-SUGAR : 2019-11-15

[IFC Markets]

US sugar shortage possibility bullish for sugar price
Bad weather raises possibility of sugar crop shortage in US. Will the sugar prices continue gaining?

Bad weather has raised the possibility of sugar crop shortage in US. Beet producers Western Sugar Cooperative and United Sugars Corp declared force majeure (meaning company is unable to meet its commercial commitments due to unforeseen events) as freezing temperatures hit the northern United States. Cold weather is also weighing on sugarcane growers in the south, according to World Weather Inc. Possible sugar shortage in US is bullish for sugar prices.

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On the daily timeframe the SUGAR: D1 is above the 200-day moving average MA(200) which is falling.

• The Parabolic indicator gives a buy signal.
• The Donchian channel indicates no trend: it is flat.
• The MACD indicator gives a bullish signal: it is above the signal line and the gap is widening.
• The RSI oscillator is falling to 50 level.

We believe the bullish momentum will continue after the price breaches above the upper boundary of Donchian channel at 12.91. This level can be used as an entry point for placing a pending order to buy. The stop loss can be placed below the lower Donchian bound at 12.30. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal low, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level (12.30) without reaching the order (12.915), we recommend cancelling the order: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.

Technical Analysis Summary


Order Buy
Buy stop Above 12.91
Stop loss Below 12.30