Technical Analysis EURUSD : 2018-12-06

[IFC Markets]

Better than expected data support EURUSD

Euro-zone producer prices and sales rose more than expected in October. Will the EURUSD recovery continue?

Recent euro-zone economic data were better than expected: retail sales and producer prices rose more than expected in October. Retail sales rose 0.3% in October instead of 0.2% as expected. At the same time producer prices grew 0.8% instead of 0.5%. These positive surprises took place while Markit’s Composite PMI was revised slightly higher to 52.7 in November from a preliminary reading of 52.4, though it still slipped from 53.1 in October. Positive euro-zone data are bullish for EURUSD.

On the daily timeframe EURUSD: D1 breached above the resistance line but then retraced lower, and now is about to test it again.

• The Donchian channel indicates downtrend : it is narrowing down.
• The MACD indicator is below the signal line with the gap narrowing. This is a bullish signal.

We believe the bullish momentum will continue after the price breaches above the resistance line. We can take a level above the upper Donchian boundary at 1.1433 as an entry point for placing a pending order to buy. The stop loss can be placed below the lower Donchian channel at 1.1266. After placing the pending order the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal low, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop-loss level (1.1266) without reaching the order (1.1433) we recommend cancelling the order: the market sustains internal changes which were not taken into account.

Technical Analysis Summary


Position Buy
Buy Stop Above 1.1433
Stop loss Below 1.1266