the curse of cassandra

[hayseed]

in greek mythology, the curse cassandra to always be disbelieved, in spite of the truth of her words......

if i had to choose my major trading weakness, it would be similar...... there is no doubt in my mind......

even after hundreds and hundreds of hours of code to prove indicators are telling the truth, for some reason my belief in them is still hard to give....

and i'm not talking about a casual glance at the chart...... i'm talking about testing on all pairs on all timeframes for years with mind burning math.....

a case in point....... the daily audusd.....h

 

[hayseed]

the daily audusd chart will probably break the bbands today...... we will know at the ny close..... the bbands position on all timeframes is very important to me......

the price has been above the bbands for 119 days with an average of 69 days..... so if it breaks, tomorrow should be a red 1....... this is the same thinking as in the thread, what follows a red 14......

let's assume i am not short...... here is the signal after 119 days...... close to twice the average length.....

do i jump for joy and rush right in....... or does the curse of cassandra hold me back......

blind faith or hesitation......

that's my greatest weakness.....h
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[hayseed]

another example...... eurusd...... h
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[hayseed]

one way to help build the faith needed, is to watch the daily and weekly atr..... this helps me avoid entrys at extremes......

there are still close to 3 trading days left this week and both the audusd and nzdusd are past there weekly atr's...... combined, they have moved over 400 pips.....

there is a point where it might be best to pull out the odds book..... for me, it is far better to let others make any remaining move......

so major sized trades will be closed today, that success helps build my trust in the particular indicator...... and a few smaller ones left on the table with small profit targets knowing that a typical retrace might drag them underwater a few dollars......

knowing when and how much indicators can be difficult..... blind faith or expecting too much from them tends to hurt me......

when the light turns green, still look both ways.....h
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[hayseed]

a similar situation with audcad..... the 240 made it's move.... daily is on deck.....

knowing a signals frequency and average movement following the signal helps......

expecting too much can be worse than expecting too little..... homework pays off.....h
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[hayseed]

a similar situation with audcad..... the 240 made it's move.... daily is on deck.....

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ditto on the eurcad......

raghee horner asked once, 'can you wait'....... for me, the wait is easy.... the trust not so......

building trust in indicators takes time.... learning how much to trust them takes longer..... h
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