Reply to thread

Message: [QUOTE="ThirdBrainFx, post: 59402, member: 29917"] [b]Market Commentary – March 3, 2014[/b] The G7 meetings are taking place today via satellite, where the main topic of discussion will be the Ukraine crisis and a range of other economic issues. G7 meetings are attended by finance ministers and central bankers from 7 industrialized nations - Canada, Italy, France, Germany, Japan, the UK, and the US. The meetings are closed to the press but officials usually talk with reporters throughout the day. Expect the market to become extremely volatile without any scheduled event due to the uncertainty over the Crimean issue. You can follow up about it on our in-depth analysis of the situation at our website. At GMT 1:45 AM, the Markit released the HSBC’s Chinese final manufacturing PMI figure, which measures the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry. Last month, the HSBC final manufacturing PMI came out at 48.3, and this month the actual figure came out at 48.5. Later, at GMT 9:30 AM, the Market also released the UK’s manufacturing PMI figure, which also measures the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry. The forecast for the UK’s manufacturing PMI was set at 56.9, and the actual figure was spot on! At GMT 2:00 PM, the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is due testify before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament, in Brussels. Since he has the most influence over the ECB’s interest rate decision, expect the market to become volatile during his testimony. [B]GBPUSD Outlook[/B] The GBPUSD pair traded in a channel for quite some time, and was unable to break the channel. However, later the pair found some buyers, and then managed to breach the down-move channel, as can be seen in the 4 hour chart shown below.After the break, the pair tested the broken channel resistance a couple of times, but the same acted as a support and pushed the pair back up. The pair has now back above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the last leg up from the 1.6250 low to 1.6823 high. This suggests that the pair might test the previous high in the coming sessions or days. However, the recent gap opening in favor of the US dollar points some consolidation or retracement in the short to medium term. The pair on the downside might find support around the same 23.6% fib level followed by the 38.2% Fib level. We think that the 1.6650 level is a key support level in the short term, and buyers may re-emerge from this area. [IMG]http://i883.photobucket.com/albums/ac38/cricketerfx/GBPUSD-3rdMar2014_zps0bbfa758.png[/IMG] On the upside, initial resistance lies at around the previous high at around the 1.6820/30 levels.A break of this region will call for a new yearly high. After the break, the bulls might eye the 1.6890 level, and any further strength may take the pair towards the 1.7000 figure. We need to see how the pair reacts to this crucial resistance zone. [IMG]http://i883.photobucket.com/albums/ac38/cricketerfx/gbpusddaily_zps32599640.jpg[/IMG] One of our top performing automated strategies, MorningBull, has already opened several long positions with the GBPUSD, since last week. If the pair reaches 1.6890 region, the GBPUSD's profits will represent almost 600 points of profits altogether. For further information, please visit our website. [B]AUDCAD Outlook[/B] [IMG]http://i883.photobucket.com/albums/ac38/cricketerfx/audcadh4_zps7047451c.png[/IMG] This year’s rally has reached a major road-block in the last two weeks, when the pair touched October’s swing high at 1.0045. Altough the actual high was 1.0058, no bars closed above the resistance so this ended up being considered a double top reversal pattern. The double top reversal pattern was further confirmed by negative divergence with MACD, a bearish engulfing price action bar on the Daily chart and a small bullish correction of the Daily engulfing bar that bounced perfectly from 61.8% fibonacci at 1.0017. In total there were four bearish signals. Even without the aid of hindsight, most were obvious as they happened. Following these bearish signals, AUD/CAD dropped towards the nearest support level 0.9829, a massive pivot zone based on the numerous highs and lows that coincide with this level, which was touched today in the early hours of trading activity. 0.9829 is also confirmed by the 200 Simple Moving Average on the 4H timeframe. Furthermore, a strong fibonacci confluence is located here, 50% retracement between 0.9590-1.0058, respectively 61.8% between 0.9694-1.0058. The strength of the support merits a bullish correction, which based on the bounce we are seeing is very likely. The major trend will not be completely bearish until price has completely crossed and closed below 0.9829, so even selling of rallies should be treated very carefully; as there’s always the possibility of a range between the 0.9829 support and the resistance at 1.0045. Towards the downside, if 0.9829 is breached we will likely see another quick drop towards 0.9725, the nearest pivot zone that was respected by the market in recent months. An even further target, very probable for the coming weeks, is located at 0.9590. [/QUOTE]

Verification

Top Bottom