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Message: [QUOTE="ThirdBrainFx, post: 59512, member: 29917"] [b]Market Commentary – March 4, 2014[/b] In the early morning, the Australian Bureau of Statistics released the month over month building approvals figure, which measures the changes in the number of new building approvals issued during the previous month. It's an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining government approval is among the first steps in constructing a new building. Last month, the Australian new building approval went down by 1.3%, and this month the forecast was set at only at 0.7% increase. However, the actual figure came out at way better, at 6.8% that surprised everyone. Regardless, the Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate unchanged, at 2.5% for the time being. At GMT 3:30 AM, the RBA released the rate statement, which is among the primary tools the RBA Reserve Bank Board uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens mentioned that domestic housing prices “have increased significantly” and that justifies keeping the current rate unchanged for the time being. At GMT 9:30 AM, the Markit released the UK’s construction PMI figure, which measures the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the construction sector. This is considered to be a leading indicator of economic health as businesses reacts quickly to changing economic climate. Last month, the UK’s construction PMI came out at 64.6, and this month it came out at 62.6, lower than the forecasted 63.6. [B]AUDJPY Outlook[/B] [IMG]http://i883.photobucket.com/albums/ac38/cricketerfx/audjpyh4_zps3da264c9.png[/IMG] In our last analysis on AUD/JPY , we pointed out how the pair might adopt a range behavior while prices remain between the resistance at 92.97 and the support pivot at 91.03 – 91.16. Since then, AUD/JPY has done just that, confirming the validity of the support one more time and later failing to form a triple top. Last week, a very consistent bearish move eventually pierced through the support, only to see a quick come-back within the range to 91.62, where a short term price pivot zone was formed. This rally also looked like a Pin bar on the Daily chart, yet there was absolutely no follow-up on the second day, invalidating the possibility for that bullish rally to continue AUD/JPY has now stabilized below 91.00 and the current 1h and 4H bars have tested this level which has successfully acted as resistance. On the 1H timeframe, at the same level a bearish trendline offers additional resistance for this bearish swing. If price returns above this level the entire range can come into play again. Below 90.04 the lows from late January and early February might be targeted, in the 88.23-88.42 region. [IMG]http://i883.photobucket.com/albums/ac38/cricketerfx/audjpydaily_zps026500be.png[/IMG] One of our top performing automated strategies, MorningBull, has already opened a short position with the AUDJPY. However, as the price bounced today, it has also opened several hedging positions to cover the unexpected surge in the AUDJPY amid better than expected new building permits data. If the pair reaches the 92.50 region, the AUDJPY's profits will represent almost 300 points of profits altogether after discounting the one short position. For further information regarding our automated strategies, please visit our website. [B]EURCHF Outlook[/B] The EURCHF has been brutally hammered by the CHF buyers in the last couple of weeks. The pair has failed time and again to find buyers, even from the lower levels.The ongoing Ukraine crisis is one of the sole reasons for the safe haven’s strength, including the EURCHF. The pair on Monday opened with a gap lower, as the CHF gained bids across the board. There was a down-move channel for the EURCHF, as can be seen in the weekly chart shown below. The pair breached the same channel, and traded lower. Now, the pair is coming closer to major support levels in the medium to long term. The 1.2100/10 is a major hurdle for the pair to the downside. There are many supports on the way down up to 1.2020/40 level. Remember, the SNB will be keeping a close eye on the CHF strength, as the 1.20 peg level is still intact by the central bank. However, before that I see the 1.2060 level as a critical swing area for the pair, and the pair might find heavy bids around the mentioned level. [IMG]http://i883.photobucket.com/albums/ac38/cricketerfx/EURCHF-4thMar2014_zpsade45686.png[/IMG] On the upside, initial resistance lies at around the broken channel support area. The broken channel might act as a resistance for the pair. Once the pair manages to break and close inside the channel again, then we can expect some buyers to return. The 1.2160/80 is a major hurdle for the pair to the upside. I think we may witness range trading for quite some time before a major move. [/QUOTE]

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