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Signs that the economic recovery in the U.S. is picking up pace may be seen when the retail sales and inflation data is released on Wednesday April 14 and economists are expecting generally positive figures for the retail sales report, any upside surprise will cause markets to predict an earlier date for a rate hike by the Fed even though their latest stance remains the same, as in to keep interest rates low for an extended period of time.
The consensus forecast sees an increase of around 1% in retail sales in March, helped by a rise in sales of cars due to deep discounts by car manufacturers and with consumers returning to buy vehicles after the Toyota recall situation earlier this year. The expected jump in March is preceded by positive numbers in February and January, making the first quarter of 2010 a solid one in terms of spending and the strongest since the first quarter of 2007. Economists surveyed ranged their estimates between +0.5% to +3.0% for the headline figure and 0% to +2.5% for the ex-autos number.
Inflation is expected to remain benign, in line with Fed officials' latest remarks that the risk of inflation is not yet a cause for much concern and that the weak housing and labour markets (although jobs growth is starting to appear) will continue to weigh on the economic outlook going forward. Prices are expected to tick higher by 0.1% in March after being flat in February (core prices rose 0.1%).
Stock markets stand to benefit the most, especially if a strong retail sales number comes out, and the greenback may get a short-term boost against the yen on positive data. Other currencies such as the euro are still being affected by other factors, namely the ongoing concerns over the bailout plan for Greece while the Australian dollar is moving on interest rate hike expectations after the RBA raised rates for the fifth time earlier this month.
Go here www.imperialfxonline.com and trade FX with confidence
Signs that the economic recovery in the U.S. is picking up pace may be seen when the retail sales and inflation data is released on Wednesday April 14 and economists are expecting generally positive figures for the retail sales report, any upside surprise will cause markets to predict an earlier date for a rate hike by the Fed even though their latest stance remains the same, as in to keep interest rates low for an extended period of time.
The consensus forecast sees an increase of around 1% in retail sales in March, helped by a rise in sales of cars due to deep discounts by car manufacturers and with consumers returning to buy vehicles after the Toyota recall situation earlier this year. The expected jump in March is preceded by positive numbers in February and January, making the first quarter of 2010 a solid one in terms of spending and the strongest since the first quarter of 2007. Economists surveyed ranged their estimates between +0.5% to +3.0% for the headline figure and 0% to +2.5% for the ex-autos number.
Inflation is expected to remain benign, in line with Fed officials' latest remarks that the risk of inflation is not yet a cause for much concern and that the weak housing and labour markets (although jobs growth is starting to appear) will continue to weigh on the economic outlook going forward. Prices are expected to tick higher by 0.1% in March after being flat in February (core prices rose 0.1%).
Stock markets stand to benefit the most, especially if a strong retail sales number comes out, and the greenback may get a short-term boost against the yen on positive data. Other currencies such as the euro are still being affected by other factors, namely the ongoing concerns over the bailout plan for Greece while the Australian dollar is moving on interest rate hike expectations after the RBA raised rates for the fifth time earlier this month.
Go here www.imperialfxonline.com and trade FX with confidence