what is a good predictor

[hayseed]

have you ever wondered about what might be a good future price predictor...... such as if 'a' happens then 'b' will happen 75% of the time...... 3 to 1 odds.....

the other day after mentioning the 'center of gravity' indicator, a long forgotten nightmare returned...... complete with code......

hey, misery loves company.......

what would be a good example of a valid price predictor to you......

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i'll start seeing how it's my nightmare......

daily pivots.......

if, the price crosses above resistance 1 what are the odds of it crossing above resistance 2......

if, the price crosses above resistance 2 what are the odds of it crossing above resistance 3...... and so on......

if, the price crosses below support 1 what are the odds of it crossing below support 2......

if, the price crosses below support 2 what are the odds of it crossing below support 3...... and so on......
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the chart below shows the daily pivots in fibonacci style..... there are many types.... not sure which is best.....

out of 2000 days, how many days will the price cross above r1, r2, r3 and so on...... if it crosses above r1, what are the odds of it crossing r2...... if it crosses above r2, what are the odds of it crossing above r3......

or fall below supports.....

so we would be using the crossing of a definable line to predict the odds of crossing another definable line, with known pips/$ value between within a definable period of time, 1 day......
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if it's of interest, will post more.........

what would be a good example of a valid future price predictor to you...... if any.....h
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[Phill88]

How often should pivot points be recalculated, and does their effectiveness change over time?

 

[Enivid]

if, the price crosses above resistance 1 what are the odds of it crossing above resistance 2......

That doesn't mean a lot without giving some timeframe or invalidating condition to that. Like 'if the price crosses above resistance 1 what are the odds of it crossing above resistance 2 before crossing back below r1' or 'if the price crosses above resistance 1 what are the odds of it crossing above resistance 2 before the end of the day'. That would be much more meaningful in my opinion.

 

[fargana]

If

have you ever wondered about what might be a good future price predictor...... such as if 'a' happens then 'b' will happen 75% of the time...... 3 to 1 odds.....

the other day after mentioning the 'center of gravity' indicator, a long forgotten nightmare returned...... complete with code......

hey, misery loves company.......

what would be a good example of a valid price predictor to you......

//-------

i'll start seeing how it's my nightmare......

daily pivots.......

if, the price crosses above resistance 1 what are the odds of it crossing above resistance 2......

if, the price crosses above resistance 2 what are the odds of it crossing above resistance 3...... and so on......

if, the price crosses below support 1 what are the odds of it crossing below support 2......

if, the price crosses below support 2 what are the odds of it crossing below support 3...... and so on......
//-------

the chart below shows the daily pivots in fibonacci style..... there are many types.... not sure which is best.....

out of 2000 days, how many days will the price cross above r1, r2, r3 and so on...... if it crosses above r1, what are the odds of it crossing r2...... if it crosses above r2, what are the odds of it crossing above r3......

or fall below supports.....

so we would be using the crossing of a definable line to predict the odds of crossing another definable line, with known pips/$ value between within a definable period of time, 1 day......
//-------

if it's of interest, will post more.........

what would be a good example of a valid future price predictor to you...... if any.....h
//--------

If price has no memory you can't reason like that. Every time the chance of breakout is same - 1/2. But it depends on what assumptions you make, if you rely on mean reversion, chances can be different, but it's important to define mean reversion: in what timespan broke through several key resistances, if it's short chances can turn in your favour.

 

[hayseed]

How often should pivot points be recalculated, and does their effectiveness change over time?

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daily pivots are recalculated daily......

there effectiveness would change in a sense..... such as, in a downtrend the odds of price crossing s1 and then s2, is greater than price crossing r1 and then r2.....

or, in the case of seasonal impacts like corn, wheat and such..... odds would favor the seasonal charts current direction.....h

 

[hayseed]

That doesn't mean a lot without giving some timeframe or invalidating condition to that. Like 'if the price crosses above resistance 1 what are the odds of it crossing above resistance 2 before crossing back below r1' or 'if the price crosses above resistance 1 what are the odds of it crossing above resistance 2 before the end of the day'. That would be much more meaningful in my opinion.

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hey enivid ...... correct...... that pivot test indicator on chart resets at market close..... so the time frame determining success is 1440...... it's a daily deal...... the blue line daily pivot which marks the beginning and end of the day.....

the price can cross back and forth r1 or even fall below the pivot..... my concern was only if after crossing r1, it would cross r2...... if it did not, it was considered a loss even if was 1 pip away from r2......

trades need to be closed either way prior to days end..... tomorrow, pivots would reset so it would be brand new world......

this was a dozen years i worked on it...... one thing i remember being a issue was sunday gaps...... h

the ea had r2 as a profit target and s1 as stoploss...... but trades were closed either way before day close......