technical analysis

Getting ready for a meeting of the Central Bank of Poland The next meeting of the National Bank of Poland will be held on November 6, 2019. Will the USDPLN quotations continue growing? The upward movement indicates weakening of the Polish zloty against the US dollar. It is expected that the...

Expectations of higher crop and exports bearish for sugar price Brazil’s sugar output is expected to rise in September while India subsidizes its exports. Will the sugar prices continue declining? Sugar global price is depressed due to ample global supply. India’s government established export...

Lower output expectations bullish for oats price USDA forecasts lower US oats production. Will the oats prices continue rising? The US Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service ( NASS ) Small Grains Summary projected 2019/20 oat production at 54.2 million bushels, 6.2...

Getting ready for the ECB meeting next week In this review, we suggest to consider a personal composite instrument (PCI) & EUR_Index. It reflects the dynamics of changes in the value of the euro relative to other world currencies.Will the EUR_Index quotations grow? The growth of this PCI...

The US dollar has suffered on a backdrop of lower global risks Progress in US-China trade negotiations and Brexit conditions caused a weakening of the US dollar. Will the USDIDX index quotations continue falling? The US dollar was previously viewed as a currency of refuge against the backdrop...

Weak construction data is published in Canada The number of housing starts in Canada decreased in September by 2.5% compared with August and amounted to 221.2 thousand. Will the NZDCAD quotations grow? Such movement is observed with the strengthening of the New Zealand dollar and the weakening...

Getting ready for trade talks between the US and China On October 10-11, the next trade talks between the USA and China will start. Will the New Zealand dollar quotations grow? Deliveries of goods to China account for approximately 20% of New Zealand's exports. Because of this, possible...

Declining composite PMI bearish for FR40 French private sector activities declined in September. Will the FR40 stock index continue declining? French economic data were negative on balance after slowing inflation report a week ago: while retail sales rose in August, private sector expansion...

Further rate cuts could increase the attractiveness of precious metals In this review, we suggest to take into consideration a personal composite instrument (PCI) & XAURUB. It reflects the dynamics of changes in the value of gold VS Russian ruble. Will the XAURUB quotations grow? Such movement...

Firm demand bullish for corn price US export sales were stronger than forecast. Will the corn price continue rising? The US Department of Agriculture World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates September report was mildly supportive for corn: it lowered the yield estimate, but also raised...

Contraction in private sector bearish for HK50 Hong Kong’s private sector contraction continued in August. Will the HK50 decline? Recent Hong Kong economic data were weak: retail sales decline accelerated: 13% over year in July versus 7.6% in June. And the August reading of purchasing managers...

Technical setup bullish for wheat price Wheat price is rising despite increased ending stock and reduced consumption forecasts in WASDE. Will the wheat price continue rising? The US Department of Agriculture World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates September report forecast reduced...

Falling Indonesia output bullish for cocoa price Cocoa production is falling in Indonesia and Malaysia. Will the cocoa price continue rising? Cocoa production is decreasing in Indonesia and Malaysia. Indonesia is the third-largest cocoa exporter in the world after Ghana and Ivory Coast...

Higher Chinese import bullish for LHOG China exempted US pork from additional tariffs and stated support for more imports from US. Will the LHOG continue gaining? China’s pig farming has been decimated by African swine fever outbreak, studies estimate China’s pig supply may have fallen by about...

Lower soybean supply forecast bullish for soybean price Soybean output estimate was downgraded in latest WASDE report. Will the soybean prices continue rising? United States Department of Agriculture lowered it soybean production projection in monthly WASDE report to 3.581 billion bushels, down...

Positive data bullish for GB100 UK’s manufacturing output decline was less than expected. Will the GB100 stock index continue advancing? UK data lately were positive on balance: contraction in manufacturing sector slowed while construction output grew in July. Manufacturing production declined...

Lower Columbia coffee output bullish for coffee price Columbia coffee output declined in August. Will the coffee prices continue rising? Columbia coffee production in August 2019 amounted to 1.119 mln 60-kg bags, down 11.0% from 1.258 mln in the same month last year, data from the Fedecafe -...

Accelerating euro area private sector activity bullish for EU50 Euro-zone’s private sector activity expansion was stronger than expected. Will the DE30 stock index continue advancing? German strong trade data spurred hopes euro-zone economy is in better shape than feared. July trade surplus...

Improving Chinese economy prospect bullish for copper price China’s manufacturing sector resumed growth in August. Will the copper price advance continue? Caixin and Markit reported China's factory activity rebounded to a five-month high in August. Caixin China manufacturing purchasing...

Cocoa Tree Disease in West Africa Cocoa Research Institute of Ghana lowered its forecast for cocoa harvest in Ghana by 11% due to the viral disease of the trees Cacao swollen-shoot virus (CSSV). Will the cocoa quotations grow? The number of infected trees in Ghana is estimated at 16%. This...