2023 Market Forecast by SolidECN

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Gold: Bearish Channel and Fibonacci​

The XAUUSD currently ranges between 61.8% and 38.2% Fibonacci levels. Interestingly, the Average Directional Index (ADX) lines hover below the 20 level, indicating market uncertainty. Despite this, gold continues to trade within the bearish channel. As a result, we can consider the current market trend as bearish.

Given this outlook, we might expect the bears to exert more pressure. This could lead to a continued decline towards the lower band of the bearish flag. However, this scenario would be invalidated if the gold price closes above the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance.​

 

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EURUSD Bullish Trend Analysis and Fibonacci Resistance Levels​

Solid ECN – The EURUSD currency pair has crossed above the bearish flag and is now testing the Ichimoku cloud. The ADX green line also crossed above the 20 level, signaling the emergence of a bullish trend. If the EURUSD remains above the blue trendline, the next target could be the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance.

The 50% Fibonacci level supports the bullish scenario. The uptrend analysis should be invalidated if the price declines below this resistance level.​

 

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USDCNH Tests Support; Bulls vs. Bears in Market Tug​

Solid ECN – The USDCNH pair is testing the 7.1631 support level on the 4-hour chart. Meanwhile, the Stochastic oscillator is gradually stepping outside the oversold area, signaling a potential change in momentum. If the bulls maintain the price above this support, we can reasonably expect the USDCNH price to experience a new bullish wave.

Consequently, the market might surge to the 7.1898 area in such a scenario.

On the flip side, should the bears successfully breach the support, the decline would likely extend to the 38.2% Fibonacci support level.​

 

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Gold Dips as Dollar Rises on US Data​

Solid ECN – Gold's price fell to under $2,030 per ounce on Thursday. This drop happened as the US dollar got more robust. Good US economic news reduced expectations for more accessible money policies in March. Inflation rates were higher than expected. Yearly inflation increased to 3.4% in December, up from 3.1% in November. Also, fewer people filed for unemployment last week than expected. Only 202,000 filed, less than the 210,000 predicted. This shows the job market is still strong.​

 

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XAUUSD Technical Analysis​

The gold price increased to $2,037 in Friday's trading session. The yellow metal is testing the upper band of the bearish flag. Concurrently, the ADX line is stepping above the 20 level, and the RSI indicator flips above the median line. As a result, the technical indicators are bullish while the pair remains within the bearish flag.

Furthermore, the 38.2% Fibonacci level acts as a hurdle that might block further price increases in the currency pair. Should this level be breached, the bullish momentum would then eye the 23.65 Fibonacci resistance.

On the flip side, if the bears maintain the price inside the flag, the downtrend, which began in late December, will likely experience a new wave. The 78.6% Fibonacci level could become the next bearish target in this scenario.​

 

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Oil Prices Rise Amid Global Tensions​

Solid ECN – WTI crude futures experienced an upward trend, reaching nearly $73 per barrel at the start of the week. This marked the third consecutive session of gains, primarily influenced by military actions in the Red Sea region. US and UK forces conducted air and sea operations aimed at halting Houthi rebels in Yemen, who were reportedly targeting maritime vessels. These developments heightened concerns over potential disruptions in oil supplies. Several tankers altered their courses last Friday in response to the military strikes.

The Houthi group issued a warning on Sunday, promising a robust and decisive reaction against the United States. Libya's oil and gas sectors also faced threats of closure at two more facilities following the recent shutdown of the Sharara field, which reduced 300,000 barrels of oil per day from the market. Concurrently, the surge in oil production from non-OPEC nations, notably the United States, and the ongoing uncertainties surrounding China's crude oil demand continue to exert pressure on global oil prices.​

 

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AUDUSD Analysis​

Solid ECN – In the 4-hour chart, the AUDUSD currency pair oscillates within a downward channel. The RSI indicator is below 50, suggesting the downward trend may persist. If the downward channel remains intact, we could see a further decrease in the currency pair, potentially reaching the channel's lower boundary.

However, there's a chance for an upward breakout from the downward flag, as indicated by the divergence in the awesome oscillator. This divergence could signal a potential trend shift. Nevertheless, as long as the AUDUSD price remains within the flag, the downward technical analysis remains applicable.​

 

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GBPUSD Analysis​

Solid ECN – The GBPUSD currency pair trades within the bullish flag's lines, while the awesome oscillator indicator signals divergence in the daily chart.

The resistance that stopped the price from rising further is the 1.2827 mark. If the divergence signal comes into play, we can expect the GBPUSD price to fall and initially target the 38.2% Fibonacci support—the lower band of the envelopes indicator and the Ichimoku cloud further back up this support level.

Conversely, the bulls must break above the 1.2827 resistance for the uptrend to continue.​

 

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USDCHF: Switzerland's Inflation and Monetary Strategies​

Solid ECN – The Swiss franc has been stable since the beginning of the year, hovering around 0.85 against the US dollar. This stability is close to its 12-year peak of 0.83, achieved on December 29th. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has implemented various support measures, leading to this steadiness. Market analysts believe the SNB might maintain its strict monetary policy for an extended time.

In December, Switzerland experienced an unexpected rise in inflation, reaching 1.7%. This rate is still within the SNB's expected range. However, it exceeded what many experts had predicted. This increase mirrors the inflation trends in countries using the Euro, Switzerland's primary trading partners. As a result, the SNB might need to raise interest rates. This move would support the Swiss franc and reduce the impact of imported inflation.

Contrasting with Switzerland's approach, there's growing speculation that the US Federal Reserve might cut interest rates sooner than anticipated. The SNB's strategy also includes selling foreign exchange. Recent data revealed that their reserves dropped to the lowest level in over seven years.​

 

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BTCUSD Analysis​

The BTCUSD pair is currently testing the lower band of the bullish channel. The technical indicators are signaling a bearish trend. The pair is likely to revisit the $40,600 support area, but for this to happen, Bitcoin’s value must remain below the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance.

If the Bitcoin price surpasses the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance level, the bullish flag will maintain its validity, and the price could rise to $45,000, around 50% Fibonacci resistance.​

 

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EURUSD Pair Falls Amid Mixed ECB Rate Views​

Solid ECN – The euro recently dipped below the $1.09 mark, reaching its lowest since mid-December. This decline is primarily attributed to the strengthening of the US dollar as investors reevaluate their expectations regarding interest rate cuts. Critical discussions at the Davos conference shed light on the varied perspectives of European Central Bank (ECB) officials regarding monetary policy and interest rates amidst ongoing high inflation.

Joachim Nagel, an ECB official, expressed at Davos that it is premature to consider reducing interest rates given the current inflationary pressures. Echoing this sentiment, Robert Holzmann from Austria suggested that rate cuts in 2024 seem highly unlikely. In contrast, France's Francois Villeroy de Galhau took a slightly different stance. While he agreed that the ECB is not in a position to declare victory over inflation yet, he hinted that a rate cut could be on the cards later in the year. Adding to these diverse viewpoints, Finnish policymaker Tuomas Valimaki advocated a more cautious approach, recommending patience and advising against premature policy actions.

The recent ECB survey results complement these discussions, revealing a notable drop in inflation expectations to a near two-year low as of November. This decrease in inflation expectations may influence the ECB's future monetary policy decisions as policymakers strive to balance controlling inflation and supporting economic growth.​

 

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Canadian Dollar Weakens Amid Inflation Surge​

Solid ECN – In January, the Canadian dollar experienced a notable depreciation, crossing the 1.345 mark against the US dollar. This movement marked its weakest position in over a month, primarily influenced by the strengthening of the US dollar. This shift in currency value comes amidst anticipations and speculations regarding policy decisions from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Federal Reserve in the United States.

Investors are displaying a sense of uncertainty, particularly about the timing of the Federal Reserve's expected reduction in interest rates. This uncertainty is coupled with the recent developments in Canada's domestic economic indicators, especially regarding inflation. Contrary to some expectations of monetary policy easing by the BoC, current inflation data has added complexity to the situation. In December, Canada's headline inflation rate rose to 3.4%, up from 3.1% in the previous month. This increase marks the first Consumer Price Index (CPI) acceleration in four months, indicating persistent inflationary pressures.

Moreover, the trimmed-mean core gauge, a measure closely monitored for its reflection of underlying inflation trends, unexpectedly surged to a four-month high of 3.7%. This data is particularly significant as it contrasts with the BoC's earlier statements. The BoC had indicated a desire to see a substantial slowing in its preferred core inflation measures before considering any rate cuts. This recent uptick in inflation measures suggests that the central bank might not be able to ease monetary policy as quickly as some market participants had hoped.​

 

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Peso Weakens Amid Banxico Policy Outlook​

The Mexican peso recently experienced a notable depreciation, crossing the 17.15 per USD threshold, a level not seen in the past month. This weakening of the peso is primarily a result of the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which has been influenced by market speculations regarding the future monetary policy of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico). This situation reflects the broader economic trends and monetary policy decisions impacting currency values.

A significant factor contributing to the peso's decline is the latest industrial production data from Mexico. November saw a 1% contraction in industrial output compared to the previous month, marking the first decrease in nine months and the most rapid decline over two years. This industrial production downturn indicates the challenges posed by Banxico's record-high interest rates, which are currently at 11.25%. These high rates, while aimed at controlling inflation, seem to be exerting considerable pressure on the country's economic activity.

Some policymakers within Banxico have suggested that these conditions might warrant loosening financial conditions in the upcoming quarters. This perspective stems from the need to balance the tight monetary policy with the demands of sustaining economic growth.

Simultaneously, the strength of the U.S. dollar is being fueled by shifts in investor expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Initially, there was anticipation of early easing by the Fed, but recent developments have led to a reevaluation of these expectations. Furthermore, ongoing geopolitical conflicts have increased the demand for safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar, which traditionally benefits in times of global uncertainty.​

 

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WTI Crude Rises Amid Middle East Tensions & Demand Outlook​

Solid ECN – WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures recently experienced a noticeable uptrend, stabilizing around $74 per barrel by the end of the week. This upward movement in oil prices can be attributed to several key factors, including escalating tensions in the Middle East and a positive shift in global oil demand projections.

The Middle East, a pivotal region in global oil dynamics, witnessed an intensification of conflicts that significantly impacted the oil market. The United States increased its military actions against Houthi targets in Yemen, responding to the group's repeated assaults on maritime shipping. These geopolitical developments directly influence oil prices due to the region's crucial role in global oil supply.

In the United States, recent data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed a substantial decrease in crude inventories. The report indicated a drop of approximately 2.5 million barrels last week, surpassing the forecasted reduction of 313,000 barrels. This decline in oil stockpiles is a strong indicator of tightening supply conditions, which can contribute to rising oil prices.

On the demand front, the International Energy Agency (IEA) revised its 2024 oil demand growth forecast upward to 1.24 million barrels per day, an increase of 180,000 barrels per day. This adjustment is attributed to anticipated improvements in economic growth and the impact of lower crude prices in the fourth quarter. Likewise, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) maintained its optimistic forecast for oil demand growth in 2024 at 2.25 million barrels per day. It projected a significant growth of 1.85 million barrels per day in 2025.​

 

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US Gas Futures Dip on Weather, Storage Data​

Solid ECN - The US natural gas market experienced a significant downturn recently, with futures dropping to a two-week low at $2.65 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). This decline, occurring on a Friday, represented a weekly loss surpassing 20% - a level not seen since December 2022. Several factors contributed to this downward trend, reflecting the complexities of the energy market.

Firstly, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a lower-than-anticipated draw from natural gas storage. This report suggested that natural gas withdrawal from storage facilities was less than market analysts had expected. Specifically, utilities withdrew 154 billion cubic feet (bcf) last week, falling short of the forecasted 164 bcf decrease. This more minor draw indicates a lesser demand than anticipated, which can exert downward pressure on prices.

Further influencing the market, weather forecasts predicted milder temperatures, which typically reduces the demand for natural gas for heating purposes. Simultaneously, these forecasts also suggest an increase in natural gas production, as warmer weather often eases production constraints.

Another critical factor was the observed shift in US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports dynamics. Flows to LNG export plants dropped to a one-year low, a move likely driven by energy firms redirecting their gas supplies to meet domestic needs. This shift was in response to heightened gas prices for power generation, spurred by the extreme cold conditions experienced recently.

Moreover, government data provided a broader perspective on natural gas storage levels. Despite the recent draw from storage, the amount of gas remains 11.2% above the seasonal norm. This higher-than-average storage level can also reduce price pressures, suggesting a sufficient supply relative to demand.​

 

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Weakening Yen & BOJ Policy Impact​

Soldi ECN – The Japanese yen recently experienced a significant weakening, surpassing the 148 mark against the dollar and approaching its lowest value in over seven weeks. This decline prompted a response from Japan's Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, who emphasized the government's close monitoring of currency market movements. Suzuki underscored the importance of market stability and the need for currency values to align with economic fundamentals.

January saw a sharp yen depreciation, which lost approximately 5% of its value. This trend is largely attributed to investor sentiment, which increasingly doubts any near-term changes in the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) monetary policy. Contributing to this outlook was the impact of a strong earthquake that struck central Japan on New Year's Day, adding to the economic challenges.

Additionally, easing inflation in Japan has reduced the immediate pressure on the BOJ to increase interest rates. Recent data indicates a noticeable decrease in Japan's headline inflation rate, which fell to a 17-month low of 2.6% in December, down from 2.8% in November. Similarly, the core inflation rate, which excludes more volatile prices, also saw a reduction, reaching an 18-month low of 2.3%.

The Bank of Japan's upcoming monetary policy decision is highly anticipated, as it will provide insights into the central bank's stance in the face of these economic developments. The BOJ's approach to monetary policy is a critical factor influencing the yen's strength and overall economic stability. As such, investors and economists will closely watch the decision, given its potential impact on Japan's economic trajectory and the broader Asian financial markets.​

 

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Swiss Franc Weakens Amid Global Monetary Shifts​

Solid ECN – The Swiss franc has recently experienced a noticeable decline, falling towards 0.87 against the US dollar, marking its weakest point in a month. This movement in currency value is primarily due to a significant resurgence in the strength of the US dollar, influenced by changing market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. Initially, there was speculation about imminent rate cuts by the Fed, but this sentiment has shifted, impacting currencies globally, including the Swiss franc.

In contrast to the US's monetary policy, the market anticipates that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will maintain a more hawkish stance in the upcoming months. This expectation is grounded in the latest inflation data from Switzerland, which rose to 1.7% in December. While this inflation rate remains within the SNB's target range and aligns with their baseline forecasts, it's notably higher than market analysts predicted. This divergence suggests that the SNB might continue its current monetary policy to ensure inflation stays within manageable limits.

Adding to these economic dynamics, Thomas Jordan, the President of the SNB, has made observations regarding the Swiss franc's valuation. He notes that the existing support for the franc has significantly contributed to its strengthening, which, in turn, has been instrumental in fostering a lower inflation outlook for the country. This relationship between the currency's strength and inflation is a key factor in the SNB's monetary policy considerations.​

 

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NZDUSD Technical Analysis​

Solid ECN – The NZDUSD currency pair is trading around 0.61065 on Monday, above the 0.6087 support. The bulls' attempt to cross above the 23.6% Fibonacci level has failed in Friday's trading session. As a result, the bearish sentiment remains strong.

The ADX line is below 40, which means the market is ranging sideways. The downtrend can resume if the price remains below the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance. In this scenario, the NZDUSD would experience further decline, and the next target would be 0.6053, which is inside the Ichimoku cloud.

On the flip side, if the support holds and bulls can cross above the 23.6% resistance, the price would test the upper line of the bearish channel, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci resistance.​

 

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GBPUSD Technical Analysis​

Solid ECN – The pair is trading in a bullish flag pattern. However, the stochastic oscillator hovers above the overbought area. As a result, the price has tested the 50% Fibonacci level and is currently bouncing back from that level. The price will likely rise to the 78.6% Fibonacci resistance if the GBPUSD buyers maintain their position above the 50% support level.

Conversely, the bullish analysis should be invalidated if the bears cross below and stabilize the price below the 50% support level.​

 

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USDJPY: Bullish Trends and Fibonacci Analysis​

Solid ECN – The USDJPY pair ranges above the 61.8% Fibonacci support. The outlook for the pair is bullish, as it is trading inside a bullish flag. However, both the RSI indicator and the Awesome Oscillator are declining. Interestingly, the ADX line is losing momentum. That said, the consolidation phase will likely extend to the lower band of the flag. This level has further support from the 61.8% level of Fibonacci retracement.

The 147.29 level provides a decent price for bulls to add new bets to the uptrend.​