2023 Market Forecast by SolidECN

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Eastern Tensions and Market Forces Propel Oil Futures​

Solid ECN—On Wednesday, WTI crude futures maintained a price of around $80.3 per barrel, their highest in seven weeks. This spike is due to increasing conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, which have raised concerns over oil supply disruptions.

A Ukrainian drone attack recently set an oil terminal ablaze in a key Russian port. Concurrently, tensions escalate as a senior Israeli official predicts a looming full-scale conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Furthermore, oil prices gained support from strong global demand projections for the latter half of the year by entities like OPEC, the IEA, and the US EIA. Key OPEC+ nations, including Russia and Iraq, continue to stick to their production limits.

Additionally, Saudi Arabia has expressed readiness to adjust its oil output depending on market needs. In contrast, recent data indicates a rise in US crude stocks by 2.264 million barrels last week, contrary to the anticipated decrease.​

 

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Gold Prices Steady Amid Economic Slowdown​

Solid ECN—On Thursday, gold prices were stable at around $2,330 per ounce due to weak US economic data, raising hopes that the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates soon. Recent figures indicate that US retail sales have stagnated, reflecting a decline in consumer enthusiasm.

This spending slowdown, combined with less tension in the labor and price sectors, has led the Federal Reserve to wait for more evidence of diminishing inflation before potentially reducing interest rates later this year. Austan Goolsbee, President of the Chicago Fed, praised Tuesday's latest consumer price inflation figures as "excellent" and remained hopeful about continued easing of inflation.

Investors are now looking forward to this week's jobless claims and the upcoming purchasing managers' indexes on Friday to gain further insight into consumer behavior and overall economic health.​

 

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MACD Signals Potential Shift for EUR/USD Pair​

Solid ECN—The EUR/USD currency pair is correcting some of its losses from Friday. The MACD indicator shows divergence, suggesting the market might enter a consolidation phase or experience a trend reversal. Currently, the pair is in a downtrend, trading within a bearish channel and below the Ichimoku cloud. Due to the MACD's divergence, the price might rise to test the upper band of the channel and the key resistance level at 1.076.

The price must stay below the critical resistance level of 1.066 for the downtrend to continue. If this happens, the key resistance level 1.066 will likely be tested again.

However, if the price breaks above 1.076, the upward momentum from 1.066 could aim for the 1.078 resistance level.​

 

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GBP/USD Pullback: Key Levels to Watch​

Solid ECN—The GBP/USD currency pair fell below 1.267 on June 20. Currently, the pair is trading around 1.265, pulling back from June's all-time low of 1.262. The DeMarker indicator predicted this pullback, as it hovers below the 0.3 line, indicating oversold conditions.

The immediate resistance level is at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, the 1.267 mark. If the bulls push the price above this level, it could rise to test the 75-period simple moving average on the 4-hour chart, a level supported by the Ichimoku Cloud.

On the downside, the price must stay below the cloud for the downtrend to continue. Additionally, the U.S. dollar must fall below the immediate support level of 1.262 against the pound sterling.​

 

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AUD/USD Bullish Momentum Strengthens​

Solid ECN—The AUD/USD pair is trading above the 50% Fibonacci level at approximately 0.664 in today's session. The pullback from 0.662 was anticipated, given that the Demarker indicator was in the oversold territory, and the market formed a long-wick bullish candlestick pattern on the 4-hour chart. The RVI lines show a bullish cross; the indicator's value rises while the MACD is above the zero line. This suggests bullish momentum is gaining strength, and the AUD/USD price is likely to increase.

From a technical standpoint, the bullish trend remains valid if the pair stays above the ascending trendline and the Ichimoku cloud. Given this outlook, the next bullish target could be the 78.6% Fibonacci level at 0.667. Furthermore, if the price exceeds this level, the next resistance will be the June high at 0.670.

Conversely, a dip below the key resistance level at 0.6623 will ignite new selling pressure, which could extend the price to the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 0.660.​

 

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USD/JPY Bullish Trend Amid Overbought Signal​

Solid ECN—The USD/JPY market appears overpriced, with the DeMarker indicator indicating overbought conditions. Today, the bears tested the upper boundary of the previously broken bullish channel. As of now, the price has bounced back, currently trading around 159.7.

The RVI and MACD indicators suggest that the bull market remains strong. The immediate resistance level is at 160.23. If the price surpasses this level, it will likely pave the way for the bulls to reach 165.0. However, entering a long position in an overbought market is not advisable.

We recommend waiting patiently for the price to test lower resistance levels, such as 158.2. This demand area provides a favorable bid price for traders and investors looking to join the bullish trend.​

 

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EUR/USD Update: Bullish Targets in Sight as Price Stabilizes​

Solid ECN—The EUR/USD currency pair stabilizes above the broken descending trendline in the 4-hour chart. However, the price remains below the key resistance level at 1.076, indicating that the primary trend is still bearish.

Technical indicators suggest that the upward momentum starting from 1.066 will likely continue, possibly targeting the 50-period simple moving average (red line). That said, if the price stays above the immediate support at 1.070, it could test the key resistance at 1.076. Should buying pressure surpass this level, the next bullish target will be the 100-period simple moving average (blue line).

Please note that a dip below the immediate support at 1.070 could trigger a resumption of the downtrend. If this occurs, the price will initially test the 1.066 level, driven by sellers.​

 

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GBP/USD: Bullish Momentum and Key Support Level​

Solid ECN—The GBP/USD currency pair is testing significant technical levels, including the 50-period simple moving average, resistance near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, and the Ichimoku cloud. Technical indicators suggest the bullish market may prevail, but the primary trend remains bearish as the price is below the Ichimoku Cloud.

The key support level to maintain the bullish outlook is 1.267, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. As long as buyers keep the exchange rate above this level, the price could rise to test the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Furthermore, if buying pressure pushes the price above 1.271, the bullish wave that began at 1.262 could target the 50% Fibonacci level at 1.273.

Conversely, if the GBP/USD price falls below the 1.267 support, the primary bearish trend will likely resume, potentially targeting June's all-time low at 1.262.​

 

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AUD/USD Faces Bearish Pressure​

The AUD/USD currency pair has declined from the descending trendline, which indicates a bearish momentum as expected due to a long wick candlestick pattern forming on the 4-hour chart. The MACD indicator is approaching the zero line and is about to cross below it, signaling that the bearish momentum may continue.

From a technical perspective, if the price crosses and stabilizes below the 50% Fibonacci level, the next bearish target will be 0.662, followed by 0.660. The descending trendline acts as resistance in this bearish scenario. This bearish analysis will be invalidated if the AUD/USD price exceeds the trendline.​

 

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EUR/USD: Downtrend Likely to Continue​

Solid ECN—The EUR/USD failed to maintain its position above the 23.6% Fibonacci level, resulting in a decline. As of now, the price is around 1.069. Technical indicators suggest that the bearish trend is likely to continue. For this downtrend to continue, the price must stay below the Ichimoku cloud.

The immediate resistance is at 1.066. If the EUR/USD price falls below this level, it will likely move towards the 1.064 support.

On the other hand, the key resistance level is at 1.076. If the price crosses above 1.076, the bearish outlook will be invalidated. In this case, the next bullish target will be the 50% Fibonacci level at 1.079.​

 

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GBP/USD Analysis: Bearish Signals Ahead​

Solid ECN—The GBP/USD pair dipped from 1.270, a development in the U.S. price which was expected because the stochastic oscillator was in the overbought territory. Additionally, the technical indicators suggest the bear market should prevail, with the RSI below zero and the price below the Ichimoku Cloud.

From a technical standpoint, the key resistance level is 1.270. As long as the price remains below this level, the downtrend will likely resume. In this scenario, the next bearish target could be at 1.265. Furthermore, if the selling pressure exceeds 1.265, the next bearish barrier will be at 1.263.

Key resistance is at 1.270. If the bulls push the price beyond 1.270, the bearish outlook should be invalidated.​

 

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Bitcoin Bearish Trend Analysis​

Solid ECN—Bitcoin is experiencing a bear market, trading below $62,724. Technical indicators suggest that the downtrend is likely to continue.

From a technical standpoint, the immediate resistance is at the 38.2% Fibonacci level. If the price stays below this, it will likely test the $58,213 support level.

On the other hand, if the price breaks above the descending trendline on the 4-hour chart, the bear market could end. In this case, the next bullish resistance would be at the 61.8% Fibonacci level.​

 

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Ethereum Faces Critical Pivot at $3,469​

Solid ECN—Ethereum is in a bear market, approaching the pivot at $3,469 in today's trading session. The pivot is backed by the descending trendline, which is considered a strong barrier. The momentum indicators have room left to become overbought, meaning the uptick momentum that began from $3,215 could result in targeting the upper resistance level.

If ETH/USD closes and stabilizes above the pivot, the 50% Fibonacci level could be the next target. The immediate support at 23.6% Fibonacci supports the current bullish wave.

Conversely, if the ETH/USD price dips below the 23.6% Fibonacci, the downtrend will likely resume. If this scenario unfolds, the first bearish barrier will be $3,341, and if the price dips below this level, the next resistance area will be the $3,215 mark.​

 

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Oil Trading Narrow Range: Key Resistance at $81.7​

Solid ECN—Oil trades bullishly above the Ichimoku cloud and the 50% Fibonacci level. However, the black gold has been trading in a narrow range between the $81.7 resistance and the $80 support since June 16.

For the uptrend to resume, bulls must close above the immediate resistance at $81.7. If this scenario plays out, the next bullish target will be the 78.6% Fibonacci level at $83.

The 50% Fibonacci level is the support for the bullish scenario. If the price drops below $80, the consolidation phase could extend to the next support level at $78.9.​

 

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USD/CNH Bullish Outlook Above 7.29​

Solid ECN—The USD/CNH dip from 7.3 was expected because the stochastic oscillator was hovering in overbought territory. In today's trading session, the pair tested the 7.29 immediate support, while technical indicators suggest the downtrend might resume, and the price might cross below the immediate resistance.

From a technical standpoint, the primary trend is bullish. The uptrend will likely resume if the USD/CNH price holds above 7.29. If this scenario unfolds, the 7.3 immediate resistance will be tested again.

Conversely, if the bears (sellers) drive the price below the 7.29 resistance, the consolidation phase could extend to lower supply zones, starting with the 7.285, backed by the Ichimoku cloud.​

 

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EUR/USD Nears Overbought After Bullish Run​

The EUR/USD currency pair is pulling back from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.076. The technical indicators suggest the market is bullish, but it might become overbought soon.

From a technical standpoint, going long at the current price is not recommended because the stochastic oscillator is almost crossing into overbought territory. That said, the price will likely bounce from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level to the 23.6% retracement level at 1.0725. This level will provide a decent entry point to join the bull market.

Please note the key resistance level is at 1.076; the uptrend will resume if bulls stabilize above this level. Conversely, if the price dips below 1.072, the bullish scenario should be invalidated accordingly.​

 

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GBP/USD Surges Past Key Resistance​

Solid ECN—The GBP/USD currency pair broke out from the descending trendline and the 50-period simple moving average. As a result, the price rose and tested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.269, then returned to test the broken trendline. The technical indicators suggest the bullish uptrend should prevail, and the price has room to grow.

From a technical perspective, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.266 is key support for the current uptick momentum. Hence, if the price remains above this level, it is likely for the bulls to retest the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, and if the buying pressure exceeds 1.269, the next bullish target could be the 78.6% retracement level at 1.271.

Conversely, a dip below 1.266 should cancel the bullish scenario.​

 

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USD/CHF Alert: Potential Dip Expected​

Solid ECN—The USD/CHF price is currently in a strong upward trend, clinging to the upper boundary of the bullish flag pattern. The recent price movements have exceeded the Bollinger Bands, and momentum indicators such as the RSI and Stochastic Oscillator suggest that the market might soon be overbought. Therefore, it is advisable not to enter a long position at the current price, as a dip to test the support levels at 1.3730 and 1.3709 is likely.

These support levels could offer a favorable entry point into the ongoing bull market. Traders and investors should watch these levels for bullish candlestick patterns, such as the hammer or bullish engulfing pattern.

The overall trend remains bullish as long as the USD/CHF pair trades within the bullish flag pattern and stays above the Ichimoku cloud level at 1.369.​

 

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AUD/USD Rebounds: Eyes on $0.668 Resistance​

Solid ECN—The Australian dollar (AUD) has recently declined from $0.668, testing the ascending trendline on the daily chart. Currently, the AUD/USD pair is rebounding from this trendline and is trading around $0.664.

Technical indicators suggest that the market is trading sideways with a slight bullish bias. Given that the price remains above both the ascending trendline and the Ichimoku cloud, it is anticipated that the AUD/USD pair will likely retest the $0.668 resistance level. Should the buying pressure surpass this resistance, the next target area will be $0.671.

However, a drop below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level would negate this bullish outlook.​

 

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NZD/USD Approaches Critical Bearish Flag Threshold​

Solid ECN—The NZD/USD pair is currently testing the lower boundary of the bearish flag formation, and a long wick candlestick pattern has emerged on the 4-hour chart. The stochastic oscillator is approaching the oversold territory, indicating that the trading instrument may soon become oversold.

From a technical perspective, entering a short position or joining a bear market when the instrument is oversold is generally not advisable. Thus, traders and investors are recommended to wait for the pair to consolidate near the upper boundary of the bearish flag. Should this scenario occur, it is crucial to closely observe the candlestick patterns around the upper line of the bearish flag for bearish signals such as an inverted hammer, bearish engulfing pattern, or a shooting star.

A breakout above the key resistance level of $0.610 will invalidate the current downtrend.​