2023 Market Forecast by SolidECN

[SOLIDECN]

Bitcoin​

Cryptocurrencies are on watch as potentially another collapse is brewing on the markets. Concerns are mounting over the financial condition of Silvergate Bank, a bank that specializes in cryptocurrency transactions. Silvergate warned in a filing on Wednesday that recent losses that the bank has experienced may leave it with less capital than it needs. Company also said that it failed to meet the deadline to submit its annual report to the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

Reaction was quick with hedge funds, partners and investors pulling out from the Bank, leading to a collapse in its share price. Cryptocurrency companies, like for example Coinbase, stop accepting and initiating payments to or from Silvergate. However, some companies, like for example BitStamp, warned that they cannot be held responsible for any funds deposited at Silvergate accounts, signaling to clients that they decide to use Silvergate accounts at their own risk.

Whole situation is putting pressure on cryptocurrencies with major coins dropping 3-7% today. Taking a look at the BITCOIN chart at the D1 interval, we can see that the coin is testing a major support zone today. The $22,450 area is marked with previous price reactions as well as the lower limit of a local market geometry. A break below would, at least in theory, hint at a short-term trend reversal. In such a scenario, declines could deepen with sellers targeting the next support zone in-line - $21,200 area marked with previous price reactions and 100-period Exponential Moving Average (green line).​

 

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XAUUSD - Growth is possible.​

If the assumption is correct, the XAUUSD pair will grow to the area of 1889.75 – 1960.25. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1802.05.

 

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USDJPY - Growth is possible.​

If the assumption is correct, the USDJPY pair will grow to the area of 138.50 – 142.17. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 134.02.

 

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US100​

The Fed released its semi-annual monetary policy report today, and next week Powell will testify before Congress. His statement may provide some hints regarding future rate hike path and measures which may be taken during the March meeting. Highlights of the report:

Further hikes are needed​

• Financial conditions have tightened significantly since June​
• Service inflation excluding the housing sector remains elevated, further dynamics will depend on the labor market​
• Bringing inflation back to 2% likely requires period of below-trend growth, some softening of labor market conditions​
• Inflation abroad remains high, which has an impact on domestic prices​
• The labor market will remain strong for now​

Today's report did not cause any major market moves, as next week's Powell semiannual testimonies is much more important. EURUSD rebounded slightly and the US100 remains at session highs.​

 

[SAT]

If the assumption is correct, the USDJPY pair will grow to the area of 138.50 – 142.17. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 134.02.

at what level we can assume entry if we went to go long

 

[SOLIDECN]

at what level we can assume entry if we went to go long

Hello,

You can set 138.5 as the first TP and 142.1 as the second TP.

Post automatically merged: Mar 6, 2023

EURUSD - The price is in a correction and a fall is possible.​

If the assumption is correct, the EURUSD pair will fall to the area of 1.0500 – 1.0325. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.0695.

 

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GBPUSD - The price is in a correction and a fall is possible.​

If the assumption is correct, the GBPUSD pair will fall to the area of 1.1650 – 1.1420. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.2285.

 

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AUDUSD​

The AUDUSD pair continues to crawl positively to trade near the key resistance 0.6780, noticing that stochastic lost its positive momentum to start providing negative signals now, waiting to motivate the price to rebound bearishly and resume the correctional bearish track, which targets 0.6665 as a next station.

The EMA50 continues to press negatively on the price to support the continuation of the expected bearish trend, being aware that breaching 0.6780 will complete forming positive pattern that has the ability to push the price to turn to rise and head to visit 0.6925 areas initially.​

 

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EURJPY​

The EURJPY pair failed to surpass 145.25 barrier, to force it to postpone the bullish attack and form correctional bearish rebound to touch the additional support at 144.

We expect to form mixed sideways trades between the mentioned levels, to recommend neutrality and monitoring the price behavior until surpassing one of these levels to manage to detect the next trend, noting that breaking the support will activate the correctional bearish track that might target 143.25 and 142.60 levels.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

GBPJPY​

The GBPJPY pair provided more negative closings below the key resistance 165.10, forming some negative waves to settle near 163.25, confirming its surrender to the previously suggested bearish bias domination.

Now, stochastic approach to 20 level allows us to keep the negative overview, to expect forming new negative waves and move towards the negative target at 162.25, while breaking to might extend losses towards 161.40 direct.​

 

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EURUSD​

ECB's Holzmann calls for 50 BPS hikes at the next 4 meetings. In addition he would like the PEPP program to be included in the balance sheet reduction, whose maturing instruments are reinvested for the time being. In his opinion, PEPP should be "pulled" into QT in autumn. These comments are very hawkish, however Holzmann belongs to the extreme group of "ultrahawks" at the ECB.

EURUSD tried to rebound slightly after Holzmann's comments.​

 

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GBPCAD​

The GBPCAD pair confirmed its affection by the domination of the correctional bullish bias by moving away from 1.6060 support line and forming strong positive waves, to notice its consolidation near 1.6390 level, also, the moving average 55 fluctuation below the current price will increase the chances of resuming the correctional bullish trend, to assist to renew the pressure on 1.6510 barrier.

Note that succeeding to breach the targeted level will confirm moving to new bullish track to start recording additional gains that might extend towards 1.6625 followed by reaching 1.6750.​

 

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USDCAD​

The USDCAD pair fluctuates around 1.3600 level, noticing that the price continues to record lower highs, while stochastic shows new negative overlapping signal now.

Therefore, we believe that the chances valid to resume the expected bearish bias on the intraday basis, which its targets begin by breaking 1.3570 to confirm rallying towards 1.3500, reminding you that the continuation of the bearish wave depends on the price stability below 1.3630 and 1.3680 levels.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

GBPUSD​

The tight range dominates the GBPUSD pair’s trades since yesterday, keeping its stability above the breached resistance of the correctional bearish channel, thus, no change to the expected bullish trend for the upcoming period, which its next target located at 1.2145.

Note that the continuation of the bullish wave depends on the price stability above 1.1990 and the most important above 1.1940.​

 

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Gold​

Gold price retested the breached neckline of the inverted head and shoulders’ pattern and keeps its stability above it, to start providing positive trades in attempt to move away from this level that represents key support at 1843.70, to keep the bullish trend scenario valid and active for the upcoming period, which targets testing 1878.80 mainly.

Stochastic shows clear positive signals now, while the EMA50 continues to provide the positive support to the price, to get positive motives that we are waiting to assist to push the price to achieve the waited rise. On the other hand, we should note that breaking 1843.70 followed by 1828.70 levels will stop the expected bullish trend and push the price to return to the correctional bearish track again.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

AUDUSD​

AUDUSD is pulling back as today's RBA statement was seen as less hawkish than the last time. The pair is attempting to make a break below the support zone marked with 200-session moving average (purple line) and a 38.2% retracement of the downward move launched in April-2022.

 

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EURGBP​

The EURGBP pair succeeded to renew the positive attempts by rallying above the additional support at 0.8795 recently, achieving big gains by moving towards the additional barrier 0.8925.

Now, the continuous positive momentum coming by the major indicators allows us to wait to confirm breaching the current barrier to open the way to target more positive stations, to expect moving towards 0.8955 soon, followed by attempting to touch the next main target at 0.9000.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

EURGBP​

The EURGBP pair succeeded to renew the positive attempts by rallying above the additional support at 0.8795 recently, achieving big gains by moving towards the additional barrier 0.8925.

Now, the continuous positive momentum coming by the major indicators allows us to wait to confirm breaching the current barrier to open the way to target more positive stations, to expect moving towards 0.8955 soon, followed by attempting to touch the next main target at 0.9000.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

USDCAD​

USDCAD is one of the pairs that will be on watch this afternoon. There is a number of events scheduled that could move the pair. ADP employment report for February at 1:15 pm GMT will be the first one of these and it will also be the final hint ahead of Friday's NFP report. ADP release will be followed by trade balance data for January from US and Canada at 1:15 pm GMT. However, the biggest USDCAD volatility today is expected around 3:00 pm GMT when Powell holds the second day of his semi-annual testimonies and Bank of Canada announces rate decision.

While speech from Powell and BoC rate decision are key events of the day, traders should keep in mind that there is also risk that they will turn out to be non-events. Powell will deliver the same speech as he did yesterday and the only thing that may differ are questions from lawmakers. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada is expected to live up to its pledge of pausing rate hike cycle and leave rate unchanged at a meeting today.

Taking a look at USDCAD chart at H4 interval, we can see that the pair has been trading in an upward channel recently. The pair reached the highest level since early-November 2022 but the upward move slowed today as investors seem to be in wait-and-see mode ahead of USDCAD volatility events later in the day. As Powell is unlikely to make any major statements we have not heard during the first day of testimonies, surprise from Bank of Canada could be a massive volatility trigger. However, BoC has been quite clear about a plan to pause rate hike and failing to do so could have a negative impact on its credibility. Not to mention that situation in the Canadian economy did not change too much from the previous meeting.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

AUDUSD​

The AUDUSD pair broke 0.6665 level strongly to rally bearishly and approach the second waited target at 0.6550, moving within the bearish channel that supports the chances of surpassing the mentioned level and open the way to achieve more bearish correction, to head towards 0.6400 areas as a next main station.

The EMA50 continues to support the suggested bearish wave, waiting to get negative momentum that assists to achieve the required break and head towards the expected target. On the other hand, we should note that breaching 0.6665 will stop the expected decline and lead the price to start recovery attempts that target testing 0.6780 areas initially.​