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Weekly Economic Calendar


March 24-29, 2025



Economic Focus This Week
Wednesday, March 27, 2025 – Inflation and UK Budget Announcement

• Australian and UK CPI inflation data (likely market-moving given central bank policy focus)
• UK’s annual budget release (Spring Statement by Chancellor Rachel Reeves)
• US economic updates:
  • Durable Goods Orders
  • Speeches from Fed’s Neel Kashkari and Musalem

Thursday, March 28, 2025 – US Growth and Employment Indicators

• Limited data in the early trading sessions
• Key US economic releases at the New York open:
  • Final Q4 GDP data
  • Weekly Unemployment Claims
  • Pending Home Sales

Friday, March 29, 2025 – Inflation and Market Sentiment Indicators

• Tokyo Core CPI (Japan’s key inflation measure, expected to influence JPY trading)
• UK Retail Sales data (potential GBP mover)
• Major US data release: Core PCE Price Index (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge)
• Additional US economic reports:
  • Canadian GDP figures
  • Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


March 25, 2025



Major Currencies:
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar's recent rebound appears to be corrective rather than a shift in trend. Technical factors suggest a potential continuation of the medium-term downtrend, with downside risks persisting. However, China's economic stimulus efforts provide some support to the currency.

• Support Levels: 0.6250, 0.6215, 0.6120
• Resistance Levels: 0.6370, 0.6420

Forecast: A break above 0.6400 could invalidate the bearish outlook, allowing a move toward 0.6540. However, failure to hold 0.6215 may signal further declines toward 0.6120 and lower.







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Market Analysis and Forecasts


March 26, 2025



Major Currencies:
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair remains in a bullish trend, driven by a strong U.S. dollar. Investors are closely watching U.S. economic indicators, as well as potential policy shifts by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Concerns over trade tariffs may add volatility to the yen.
Support Levels: 149.51, 148.95, 148.58, 148.25
Resistance Levels: 151.32, 152.32
Forecast: The medium-term outlook favors continued upward movement toward 151.32. A break above this level could trigger further gains. Conversely, if the price falls below 149.51, a downward correction may occur. The BoJ's stance on interest rates and U.S. monetary policy will be key drivers.






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Market Analysis and Forecasts


March 27, 2025



Major Currencies:
USD/JPY The Japanese yen has been under pressure as the Bank of Japan maintains a cautious stance on tightening policy. Uncertainty over U.S. trade policy and potential tariffs add volatility to the yen. The pair has been moving within a bullish channel, with the next key resistance level at 151.32.
Support Levels: 149.51, 148.95, 148.58, 148.25
Resistance Levels: 151.32, 152.32
Forecast: The bullish trend remains intact unless the price drops below 149.51. If resistance at 151.32 is breached, further gains towards 152.32 could be expected. Conversely, a break below 149.51 could trigger a correction.






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Market Analysis and Forecasts


March 28, 2025



Major Currencies:
USD/JPY
The U.S. dollar has remained strong against the Japanese yen, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain its higher interest rate stance for an extended period. Meanwhile, Japanese authorities have not signaled intervention, allowing the yen to continue weakening.
Market participants are closely watching U.S. GDP data and comments from Fed officials, which may drive further volatility. While the yen has shown some recovery, the overall trend remains bullish for USD/JPY.
Support Levels: 149.51, 148.95, 148.58, 148.25
Resistance Levels: 151.32, 152.32
A move above 151.32 could open the path for further gains, while a drop below 149.51 may suggest a potential reversal in trend.






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Weekly Economic Calendar


March 31- April 5, 2025



Economic Focus This WeekWednesday, April 2, 2025

• United States: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report—the only major scheduled data release.
• Tariff Policy: Market attention will be on President Trump's announcement regarding tariff adjustments, with potential market-moving implications.

Thursday, April 3, 2025

• Global Trade: Markets react to the implementation of US tariffs and potential countermeasures from affected countries.
• Switzerland: CPI inflation data release post-London open.
• United States: Weekly Unemployment Claims, ISM Services PMI, and Final Services PMI reports expected to drive market sentiment.

Friday, April 4, 2025

• United Kingdom: Construction PMI data, with limited market-moving potential.
• United States: The focal point of the week—Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings data. The market reaction is expected to be heavily driven by the headline payroll number.
• Canada: Employment data release, coinciding with US labor reports, though market movements will likely be dictated by US updates.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


April 1, 2025



Major Currencies:
USD/JPY

• Current Situation:
  • The yen is strengthening due to increased safe-haven demand and hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan.
  • Concerns about US tariffs are driving demand for the yen.
  • The Bank of Japan's potential interest rate hikes are also supporting the yen.
• Support Levels:
  • 148.60, 148.25
• Resistance Levels:
  • 149.15, 149.55, 151.32
• Forecast:
  • Short-term: The yen is likely to continue strengthening. Selling opportunities exist around the 149.15 and 149.55 resistance levels.
  • Medium-term: The yen's strength will depend on global risk sentiment and Bank of Japan policy. If safe-haven demand remains high and the BoJ raises rates, the yen could see further gains.
  • The trend is bullish, but a trend shift to bearish is possible.

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Market Analysis and Forecasts


April 2, 2025



Major Currencies:
USD/JPY
The Japanese yen remains under pressure due to a mix of economic uncertainty and external factors, including U.S. tariff concerns. The recent drop in Japan’s unemployment rate did little to strengthen the yen, as business sentiment has weakened. The Federal Reserve’s policy stance and bond market movements will heavily influence USD/JPY.
Key Levels:

• Support: 149.55, 149.15, 148.60, 148.25
• Resistance: 150.10, 151.02, 151.32, 152.32

Forecast:
The medium-term trend remains bullish, but a shift is possible if the price fails to hold above 149.55. If the price surpasses 150.10, further upside toward 151.02 is expected. Conversely, a breakdown below 148.60 could indicate a shift toward bearish momentum.





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Market Analysis and Forecasts


April 4, 2025



Major Currencies:
USD/JPY
Market Overview: The Japanese yen is benefiting from a surge in risk-off sentiment, as escalating trade tensions (especially U.S. tariffs) spook global markets. The pair broke lower and shows signs of a sustained bearish trend.
Forecast:

• A break below 145.95 would likely drive the pair to 144.72, possibly lower if global tensions escalate.
• Any upside correction may stall near 146.84 or 147.91, offering fresh selling opportunities.

Support Levels: 146.65, 146.00, 144.72
Resistance Levels: 148.41, 149.16, 150.27
Key Pivot Range: 145.95–146.84
Bias: Bearish while below 147.91, especially if market risk sentiment remains negative.





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