Capital Trust Markets Daily Market Commentary

[CapitalTrustMarkets]

Technical Updates for April 18, 2014

EURAUD

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.The EURAUD first downswing seems to be over and a counter trend rally maybe taking shape. An engulfing bullish candle appearance earlier confirms the same. The pair continues to remain bearish for now, but a counter trend rally into the 1.51/1.52 levels still cannot be ruled out. Please also note that the 1.51 handle is past support turned resistance now, and rallies through 1.51 should be taken as opportunity to go short again. The 1.41 handle remains minimum expectations for now.
2.No change. Immediate support is at 1.44, followed by 1.43 and lower, while resistance is at 1.51/1.52 (intermediary), followed by 1.55 and 1.58 respectively.
3.The structure reveals that a counter trend rally could be shaping up at the moment towards 1.51/1.52 handle, which is support turned resistance now. More conservative approach would be to initiate fresh short positions from higher levels.

Trading recommendations:
Remain flat for now. Looking to sell again around 1.51/1.52





Crude

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.Crude still wants to test 105.00 handle before reversing. Till the time prices stay below 105.20, a push lower can be expected towards 96.50 at least. Only a break above 105.00 would push towards 110.00 levels. High probability remains that Crude corrects lower before the rally could resume.
2.No change. Immediate support is at sub 97.00 and 96.00/50 levels (Fibonacci 0.618 support), followed by 94.00/30 and 92.00, while resistance is at 105.25 (intermediary), and followed by 108.00 and 110.00 respectively.
3. No change. The structure remains in favour of bulls at the moment after bouncing off the 99.00 levels and reveals that they shall remain in control till prices stay above 99.00 levels in the near term and subsequently above 94.00 levels in the medium term. A corrective fall still remains possible from current levels towards 96.50, though.

Trading recommendations:
Remain short for now, stop at 105.50, target is open





Gold

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.No change. Gold pullback seems to be over around $1,290.00/$1,300.00 levels for now and the metal seems prepared to rally further high. A sustained push higher from current levels would target $1,345.00/50.00 levels. Please note that the trend line resistance is now seen at $1,360.00/70.00 levels. The metal remains buy on dips till $1,277.00 remains intact.
2.Immediate support is at $1,230.00/40.00, followed by $1,210.00 and lower, while resistance is at $1,350.00/60.00 region, followed by $1,388.00 respectively.
3.No change. The structure still reveals that Gold rally should extend at least till the $1,350.00 levels if not further. Pullback has taken place into the expected territory of $1,300.00 now, for possible long positions.

Trading recommendations:
Hold long positions, stop at $1,275.00, target is open.





Silver

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.No change. It looked like Silver would break down the line of support but the metal has instead produced a doji around $19.30/50 levels as seen here. This is indicative of a possible up move and reversal higher into the $24.00 levels. Downside risk remains at $19.00.
2.Immediate support remains at $19.00/50, followed by $18.75 and lower, while resistance is at $21.70/80(intermediary), followed by $22.10(intermediary) and $23.00 respectively.
3. The structure reveals that bulls shall remain in control till prices remain above $19.00 levels from here on. Only a break below $19.00 shall be considered to be extremely bearish.

Trading recommendations:
Hold long positions for now, stop at $18.90, target is open.





Prepared by Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst at Capital Trust Markets

 

[CapitalTrustMarkets]

Technical Updates for April 21, 2014

EURAUD

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.The EURAUD remains unchanged for now. The counter trend rally could gather pace and move higher towards 1.52 levels as seen here. An engulfing bullish candle appearance earlier confirms the same. Please also note that the 1.51/1.52 handle is past support turned resistance now, and rallies through 1.51 should be taken as opportunity to go short again. The 1.41 handle remains minimum expectations for now.
2.No change. Immediate support is at 1.44, followed by 1.43 and lower, while resistance is at 1.51/1.52 (intermediary), followed by 1.55 and 1.58 respectively.
3.The structure reveals that a counter trend rally could be shaping up at the moment towards 1.51/1.52 handle, which is support turned resistance now. More conservative approach would be to initiate fresh short positions from higher levels.

Trading recommendations:
Remain flat for now. Looking to sell again around 1.51/1.52





Crude

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.Crude reverses sharply after testing the 105.00 levels as discussed earlier. This could be a larger reversal towards the 96.50 levels or at least in to 101.00 as shown here. A bullish bounce at intermediary support line should be bought again. Keeping the larger view in mind, the upside still remains at 110.00 levels, till prices remain above 94.00.
2.No change. Immediate support is at sub 97.00 and 96.00/50 levels (Fibonacci 0.618 support), followed by 94.00/30 and 92.00, while resistance is at 105.25 (intermediary), and followed by 108.00 and 110.00 respectively.
3. No change. The structure remains in favour of bulls at the moment after bouncing off the 99.00 levels and reveals that they shall remain in control till prices stay above 99.00 levels in the near term and subsequently above 94.00 levels in the medium term. A corrective fall still remains possible from current levels towards 96.50, though.

Trading recommendations:
Remain short for now; stop at 105.50, target is open





Gold

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.The yellow metal is threatening to re-test recent swing lows at $1,277.00 levels, it seems. Nevertheless bulls would retain control till prices stay above $1,277.00 mark. Only a break below, would delay matters and expose $1,230.00/40.00 levels. The metal is expected to rally towards $1,350.00/60.00 levels at least from here on.
2.Immediate support is at $1,230.00/40.00, followed by $1,210.00 and lower, while resistance is at $1,350.00/60.00 region, followed by $1,388.00 respectively.
3.No change. The structure still reveals that Gold rally should extend at least till the $1,350.00 levels if not further. Bottom line is that $1,277.00 should for now.

Trading recommendations:
Hold long positions, stop at $1,275.00, target is open.





Silver

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.Silver looks to re-test recent lows at $19.20 levels for now. A break of $19.00 levels would be required to confirm further bearish setup though. On the other hand, a bullish reversal now would confirm a bottom is place just ahead of $19.00 levels. Further note that the trend line is providing resistance at the moment, so prices need to push above at least $20.00 to trade in the buy zone again.
2.Immediate support remains at $19.00, followed by $18.75 and lower, while resistance is at $21.70/80(intermediary), followed by $22.10(intermediary) and $23.00 respectively.
3. The structure reveals that bulls shall remain in control till prices remain above $19.00 levels from here on. Only a break below $19.00 shall be considered to be extremely bearish.

Trading recommendations:
Hold long positions for now, stop at $18.90, target is open.




Prepared by Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst at Capita Markets.

 

[CapitalTrustMarkets]

Technical Updates for April 22, 2014

EURAUD

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.The EURAUD remains unchanged for now. The counter trend rally could gather pace and move higher towards 1.52 levels as seen here. An engulfing bullish candle appearance earlier confirms the same. Please also note that the 1.51/1.52 handle is past support turned resistance now, and rallies through 1.51 should be taken as opportunity to go short again. The 1.41 handle remains minimum expectations for now. A push below 1.4660 would be extremely bearish for now.
2.No change. Immediate support is at 1.44, followed by 1.43 and lower, while resistance is at 1.51/1.52 (intermediary), followed by 1.55 and 1.58 respectively.
3.The structure reveals that a counter trend rally could be shaping up at the moment towards 1.51/1.52 handle, which is support turned resistance now. More conservative approach would be to initiate fresh short positions from higher levels.

Trading recommendations:
Remain flat for now. Looking to sell again around 1.51/1.52





Crude

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.No major change. Crude reverses sharply after testing the 105.00 levels as seen here. This could be a larger reversal towards the 96.50 levels or at least in to 101.00 as shown here. A bullish bounce at intermediary support line should be bought again. Keeping the larger view in mind, the upside still remains at 110.00 levels, till prices remain above 94.00.
2.No change. Immediate support is at sub 97.00 and 96.00/50 levels (Fibonacci 0.618 support), followed by 94.00/30 and 92.00, while resistance is at 105.25 (intermediary), and followed by 108.00 and 110.00 respectively.
3. No change. The structure remains in favour of bulls at the moment after bouncing off the 99.00 levels and reveals that they shall remain in control till prices stay above 99.00 levels in the near term and subsequently above 94.00 levels in the medium term. A corrective fall still remains possible from current levels towards 96.50, though.

Trading recommendations:
Remain short for now; stop at 105.50, target is open





Gold

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.Gold produces a doji (indecision candlestick) pattern yesterday, spanning almost for a $20.00 intraday trading range. The yellow metal seems to have re-tested recent swing lows at $1,277.00 and possibilities are for a rally from current levels. Buying on dips should be the trading strategy till prices remain above $1,277.00. Upside is seen at least towards $1,350.00/60.00.
2.Immediate support is at $1,230.00/40.00, followed by $1,210.00 and lower, while resistance is at $1,350.00/60.00 region, followed by $1,388.00 respectively.
3.No change. The structure still reveals that Gold rally should extend at least till the $1,350.00 levels if not further. Bottom line is that $1,277.00 should for now.

Trading recommendations:
Hold long positions, stop at $1,275.00, target is open.





Silver

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.Silver re-tests $19.20/30 levels yesterday before pulling back. A break of $19.00 levels would be required to confirm further bearish setup though. On the other hand, a bullish reversal now would confirm a bottom is place just ahead of $19.00 levels. Further note that the trend line is providing resistance at the moment, so prices need to push above at least $20.00/40 to trade in the buy zone again.
2.Immediate support remains at $19.00, followed by $18.75 and lower, while resistance is at $21.70/80(intermediary), followed by $22.10(intermediary) and $23.00 respectively.
3. The structure reveals that bulls shall remain in control till prices remain above $19.00 levels from here on. Only a break below $19.00 shall be considered to be extremely bearish. High probability from current levels is for a rally though.

Trading recommendations:
Hold long positions for now, stop at $18.90, target is open.





Prepared by Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst at Capital Trust Markets

 

[CapitalTrustMarkets]

Technical Updates for April 23, 2014

EURAUD

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.The EURAUD remains unchanged for now. The counter trend rally could gather pace and move higher towards 1.52 levels as seen here. An engulfing bullish candle appearance earlier confirms the same. Please also note that the 1.51/1.52 handle is past support turned resistance now, and rallies through 1.51 should be taken as opportunity to go short again. The 1.41 handle remains minimum expectations for now. A push below 1.4660 would be extremely bearish for now.
2.No change. Immediate support is at 1.44, followed by 1.43 and lower, while resistance is at 1.51/1.52 (intermediary), followed by 1.55 and 1.58 respectively.
3.The structure reveals that a counter trend rally could be shaping up at the moment towards 1.51/1.52 handle, which is support turned resistance now. More conservative approach would be to initiate fresh short positions from higher levels.

Trading recommendations:
Remain flat for now. Looking to sell again around 1.51/1.52





Crude

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Crude reverses sharply after testing the 105.00 levels as seen here. This could be a larger reversal towards the 96.50 levels or at least in to 101.00 as shown here. A bullish bounce at intermediary support line should be bought again. Keeping the larger view in mind, the upside potential remains at 110.00 levels, till prices stay above 94.00.
2.No change. Immediate support is at sub 97.00 and 96.00/50 levels (Fibonacci 0.618 support), followed by 94.00/30 and 92.00, while resistance is at 105.25 (intermediary), and followed by 108.00 and 110.00 respectively.
3. No change. The structure remains in favour of bulls at the moment after bouncing off the 99.00 levels and reveals that they shall remain in control till prices stay above 99.00 levels in the near term and subsequently above 94.00 levels in the medium term. A corrective fall remains possible from current levels towards 96.50, though.

Trading recommendations:
Remain short for now; stop at 105.50, target is open




Gold

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.Gold tests $1,277.00 yesterday before pulling back. The yellow metal still seems to be poised to stage a rally into the $1,350.00/60.00 levels. Buying on dips should be the trading strategy till prices remain above $1,277.00. On the flip side, if $1,277.00 is broken down, the next possible support is lower towards $1,230.00/40.00.
2.Immediate support is at $1,230.00/40.00, followed by $1,210.00 and lower, while resistance is at $1,350.00/60.00 region, followed by $1,388.00 respectively.
3.No change. The structure still reveals that Gold rally should extend at least till the $1,350.00 levels if not further. Bottom line is that $1,277.00 should hold for now.

Trading recommendations:
Hold long positions, stop at $1,275.00, target is open.





Silver

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.Silver re-tests $19.20/30 levels yesterday before pulling back. Furthermore, a doji has been again produced indicating a potential reversal. Only a break of $19.00 levels would confirm further bearish setup. Further note that the trend line is providing resistance at the moment, so prices need to push above at least $20.00/40 to trade in the buy zone again.
2.Immediate support remains at $19.00, followed by $18.75 and lower, while resistance is at $21.70/80(intermediary), followed by $22.10(intermediary) and $23.00 respectively.
3. The structure reveals that bulls shall remain in control till prices remain above $19.00 levels from here on. High probability from current levels is for a rally though.

Trading recommendations:
Hold long positions for now, stop at $18.90, target is open.





Prepared by Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst at Capital Trust Markets

 

[CapitalTrustMarkets]

NZD/USD Long-Term Trend and RBNZ Policy Bias

NZD/USD is moving inside a strong uptrend, as seen on its long-term forex time frames. However, the pair is testing the top of the ascending trend channel on the daily chart, indicating a potential selloff.

Recall that the latest leg of the rally was inspired by a hawkish RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) interest rate decision wherein policymakers agreed to hike interest rates. This led traders to buy the New Zealand dollar against most of its currency counterparts in order to take advantage of the positive carry and in expectations of more rate hikes.

Meanwhile, the US dollar has lost its appeal when the March non-farm payrolls figure came in weaker than expected and failed to trigger a drop in the jobless rate. This was followed by a downbeat FOMC meeting minutes release that showed dissent from policymakers when it comes to tightening monetary policy or hiking interest rates.

Export issues, particularly in the milk industry, have undermined Kiwi strength in the past couple of weeks though. This could cause the central bank to take a less upbeat stance in their next monetary policy statement during which they are likely to keep interest rates on hold for the meantime.

A selloff from the current levels, which could be sparked by a dovish RBNZ rhetoric, could last until the middle of the channel. As you can see from the chart, there is an area of interest somewhere between the .8200 to .8300 major psychological levels, as price has consolidated previously there.

On the other hand, an upside break spurred by a hawkish RBNZ rhetoric could lead to a test of the next resistance levels around the .8700 area. Take note though that the RBNZ is wary of further gains in the currency as this could wind up hurting their export industry again. An upbeat rate statement combined with currency jawboning could still lead to New Zealand dollar weakness or at least more consolidation.

There are no major reports lined up from the US economy so far, which suggests that the behavior of this pair could depend mostly on New Zealand events. Data from the economy has been strong so far, save for the recent downturn in dairy exports. Meanwhile, traders are anticipating more jobs weakness for the US economy in the April non-farm payrolls figure release next week.

Interesting Read - RBNZ Rate Hike To Place NZD in the Driver’s Seat Versus USD

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Prepared by Aayush Jindal, Chief Technical Strategist at Capital Trust Markets

 

[CapitalTrustMarkets]

Market Correction for AUD/USD

AUD/USD suffered a sharp selloff in yesterday’s trading sessions when the quarterly CPI from Australia came in below expectations. The report showed a 0.6% increase in price levels when analysts were expecting to see a 0.8% rise in inflation. This pushed AUD/USD down from the .9380 area down to the .9300 major psychological support.

As you can see from the pair’s forex chart, price is finding support at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, which lines up with an area of interest. A bounce from this area could lead to a test of the previous highs if there’s enough buying momentum spurred by a market catalyst.

A deeper correction could go all the way down to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which is closer in line to the rising trend line connecting the price’s lows since January this year. A bounce from the ascending trend support could confirm that the uptrend is still intact and that the fundamental bias still favors the Australian dollar over the US dollar.

There are no major reports due from the US today, except perhaps for the initial jobless claims and the durable goods orders data. Bear in mind that the US economy has been printing disappointing figures lately, with the flash manufacturing PMI showing a slight decline and existing home sales falling short of consensus. This leads to a bearish bias for the dollar, although the safe-haven currency is currently drawing a bit of support from the risk-off market environment. While this persists, AUD/USD could make its way lower to make an actual test of the ascending trend line.

Australian banks are on a holiday in observation of Anzac day, which could mean a bit of consolidation for Aussie pairs. Traders could take this time to reestablish their Aussie positions and assess the monetary policy and interest rate divergences between Australia and the US.

Take note that the RBA has mentioned that it will keep close tabs on inflation reports in order to gauge where monetary policy could be headed. Expectations of lower inflation could lead the central bank to abandon its neutral stance in favor of a more dovish one. Further rallies in the Australian dollar could also wind up dampening inflationary pressures, which could give the RBA incentive to jawbone their local currency.

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Prepared by Aayush Jindal, Chief Technical Strategist at Capital Trust Markets

 

[CapitalTrustMarkets]

Technical Updates for April 24, 2014

EURAUD

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.The EURAUD produces an engulfing bullish candlestick as seen here, indicating the next leg would be higher. The counter trend rally could gather pace and move higher towards 1.52 levels as projected here. An engulfing bullish candle appearance earlier confirms the same. Please also note that the 1.51/1.52 handle is past support turned resistance now, and rallies through 1.51 should be taken as opportunity to go short again. The 1.41 handle remains minimum expectations for now.

2.No change. Immediate support is at 1.44, followed by 1.43 and lower, while resistance is at 1.51/1.52 (intermediary), followed by 1.55 and 1.58 respectively.

3.The structure reveals that a counter trend rally could be shaping up at the moment towards 1.51/1.52 handle, which is support turned resistance now. More conservative approach would be to initiate fresh short positions from higher levels.

Trading recommendations:
Remain flat for now. Looking to sell again around 1.51/1.52





Crude

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Crude reverses sharply after testing the 105.00 levels as seen here. This could be a larger reversal towards the 96.50 levels or at least in to 101.00 as shown here. A bullish bounce at intermediary support line, which is being tested at the moment, should be bought again. Keeping the larger view in mind, the upside potential remains at 110.00 levels, till prices stay above 94.00.

2.No change. Immediate support is at sub 97.00 and 96.00/50 levels (Fibonacci 0.618 support), followed by 94.00/30 and 92.00, while resistance is at 105.25 (intermediary), and followed by 108.00 and 110.00 respectively.
3. No change. The structure remains in favour of bulls at the moment after bouncing off the 99.00 levels and reveals that they shall remain in control till prices stay above 99.00 levels in the near term and subsequently above 94.00 levels in the medium term. A corrective fall remains possible from current levels towards 96.50, though.

Trading recommendations:
Exit short positions and remain flat for now.




Gold

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.Unchanged. Gold tests $1,277.00 again before pulling back. The yellow metal still seems to be poised to stage a rally into the $1,350.00/60.00 levels. Buying on dips should be the trading strategy till prices remain above $1,277.00. On the flip side, if $1,277.00 is broken down, the next possible support is lower towards $1,230.00/40.00.
2.Immediate support is at $1,230.00/40.00, followed by $1,210.00 and lower, while resistance is at $1,350.00/60.00 region, followed by $1,388.00 respectively.
3.No change. The structure still reveals that Gold rally should extend at least till the $1,350.00 levels if not further. Bottom line is that $1,277.00 should hold for now.

Trading recommendations:
Hold long positions, stop at $1,275.00, target is open.




Silver

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.Silver re-tests $19.20/30 levels again before pulling back. Furthermore, a doji has been again produced indicating a potential reversal. Only a break of $19.00 levels would confirm further bearish setup. Further note that the trend line is providing resistance at the moment, so prices need to push above at least $20.00/40 to trade in the buy zone again.
2.Immediate support remains at $19.00, followed by $18.75 and lower, while resistance is at $21.70/80(intermediary), followed by $22.10(intermediary) and $23.00 respectively.
3. The structure reveals that bulls shall remain in control till prices remain above $19.00 levels from here on. High probability from current levels is for a rally though.

Trading recommendations:
Hold long positions for now, stop at $18.90, target is open.




Prepared by Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst at Capital Trust Markets

 

[CapitalTrustMarkets]

Technical Updates for April 25, 2014

EURAUD

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.The EURAUD has produced an engulfing bullish candlestick as seen here, indicating the next leg would be higher. The counter trend rally could gather pace and move higher towards 1.52 levels as projected here. Please also note that the 1.51/1.52 handle is past support turned resistance now, and rallies through 1.51 should be taken as opportunity to go short again. The 1.41 handle remains minimum expectations for now.
2.No change. Immediate support is at 1.44, followed by 1.43 and lower, while resistance is at 1.51/1.52 (intermediary), followed by 1.55 and 1.58 respectively.
3.The structure reveals that a counter trend rally could be shaping up at the moment towards 1.51/1.52 handle, which is support turned resistance now. More conservative approach would be to initiate fresh short positions from higher levels.

Trading recommendations:
Remain flat for now. Looking to sell again around 1.51/1.52





Crude

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Crude reverses sharply after testing the 105.00 levels earlier as seen here. This could be a larger reversal towards the 96.50 levels or at least in to 101.00 as shown here. A bullish bounce at intermediary support line, which is being tested at the moment, should be bought again. Keeping the larger view in mind, the upside potential remains at 110.00 levels, till prices stay above 94.00.
2.No change. Immediate support is at sub 97.00 and 96.00/50 levels (Fibonacci 0.618 support), followed by 94.00/30 and 92.00, while resistance is at 105.25 (intermediary), and followed by 108.00 and 110.00 respectively.
3. No change. The structure remains in favour of bulls at the moment after bouncing off the 99.00 levels and reveals that they shall remain in control till prices stay above 99.00 levels in the near term and subsequently above 94.00 levels in the medium term. A corrective fall remains possible from current levels towards 96.50, though.

Trading recommendations:
Initiate long positions, stop at 100.95, target is open.





Gold

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.Gold takes out $1,275.00 levels, prints lows at $1,270.00 and reverses! The metal has produced a bullish reversal on the daily chart view here and stands significance. A break above $1,310.00 would be extremely encouraging for the bulls.
2.Immediate support is at $1,230.00/40.00, followed by $1,210.00 and lower, while resistance is at $1,350.00/60.00 region, followed by $1,388.00 respectively.
3.No change. The structure still reveals that Gold rally should extend at least till the $1,350.00 levels if not further. We would watch before entering fresh long positions though.

Trading recommendations:
1.Aggressive trade setup is to enter 50% long, stop at $1,240.00, target open.
2.Conservative a\trade setup is to remain flat for now.





Silver

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.Silver breaks below $19.00 levels yesterday, and reversed sharply from sub $18.90 levels to regain all lost ground! The activity is encouraging for bulls and further push through $20.40 levels would confirm that the rally gathers pace.
2.Immediate support remains at $18.75 and sub $18.00, while resistance is at $21.70/80(intermediary), followed by $22.10(intermediary) and $23.00 respectively.
3. The structure still reveals that bulls shall remain in control till prices remain above $18.75 levels from here on. High probability from current levels is for a rally though.

Trading recommendations:
1.Aggressive setup is to initiate 50% long positions stop at $18.40, target open.
2.Conservative setup is to remain flat.




Prepared by Harsh Japee, by Capital Trust Markets

 

[CapitalTrustMarkets]

AUDJPY Uptrend Correction

Despite the latest round of weakness seen among Australian dollar currency pairs, the AUD/JPY pair is still on a solid uptrend with a potential correction taking place. As you can see on the 4-hour time frame, AUD/JPY Is making its way down to test the rising trend line connecting the recent lows of price action.

The Fibonacci retracement tool shows that the 61.8% to 50% levels are in line with the trend line, with the 94.00 major psychological support level within the same area. The pair could bounce from that zone and make its way back to the former highs, depending on how economic data turns out.

So far, Australia’s figures have disappointed as the CPI fell short of expectations. The report showed a 0.6% quarterly uptick in price levels instead of the estimated 0.8% increase. This puts less pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike interest rates for now, as tighter monetary policy could result to weaker inflationary movement.

Despite that, the fundamental bias still favors the Australian dollar over the Japanese yen. After all, the RBA is no longer looking to cut interest rates in the foreseeable future while the Bank of Japan is still open to further easing depending on how the sales tax hike affects the economy in the next few months.

Data from Japan has been promising though, as the CPI figures showed another rise in price levels, reminding traders that Japan is doing a decent job at warding off deflation. Risk aversion has also favored the lower-yielding yen, as traders try to lighten up on their higher-yielding holdings.

A bounce from the 94.00 area and ascending trend line could take AUD/JPY back to its previous highs near the 96.50 minor psychological resistance but it would take a good strong market catalyst to let this play out. A significant improvement in risk appetite could also support the Australian dollar against the Japanese yen.

For now, the economic calendar has no major reports lined up from both economies. Australian banks and financial markets are closed for now, which leads to less volatility among Aussie pairs. The economic events next week could provide more clues on the direction of the pair, as more Aussie weakness might result to a sharp reversal for this pair.

Interesting Read - What’s The Risk Of A Much Larger Australian Dollar Breakout?

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Prepared by Aayush Jindal, Chief Technical Strategist at Capital Trust Markets

 

[CapitalTrustMarkets]

Technical Updates for April 28, 2014

EURAUD

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.The EURAUD has produced an engulfing bullish candlestick last week as seen here, indicating the next leg would be higher. The counter trend rally could gather pace and move higher towards 1.52 levels as projected here. Please also note that the 1.51/1.52 handle is past support turned resistance now, and rallies through 1.51 should be taken as opportunity to go short again. The 1.41 handle remains minimum expectations for now.
2. Immediate support is at 1.44, followed by 1.43 and lower, while resistance is at 1.51/1.52 (intermediary), followed by 1.55 and 1.58 respectively.
3.The structure reveals that a counter trend rally could be shaping up at the moment towards 1.51/1.52 handle, which is support turned resistance now. More conservative approach would be to initiate fresh short positions from higher levels.

Trading recommendations:
Remain flat for now. Looking to sell again around 1.51/1.52




Crude

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Crude reverses sharply after testing the 105.00 levels earlier as seen here. This could be a larger reversal towards the 96.50 levels or at least in to 101.00 as shown here. The intermediary support trend line is seen to be broken at the moment here. Keeping the larger view in mind, the upside potential remains at 110.00 levels, till prices stay above 94.00.
2. Immediate support is at sub 97.00 and 96.00/50 levels (Fibonacci 0.618 support), followed by 94.00/30 and 92.00, while resistance is at 105.25 (intermediary), and followed by 108.00 and 110.00 respectively.
3. The structure remains in favour of bulls at the moment after bouncing off the 99.00 levels and reveals that they shall remain in control till prices stay above 99.00 levels in the near term and subsequently above 94.00 levels in the medium term. A corrective fall remains possible from current levels towards 96.50, though.

Trading recommendations:
Remain flat for now.




Gold

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.Gold takes out $1,275.00 levels, prints lows at $1,270.00 and reverses sharply last week. The metal has produced a bullish reversal on the daily chart view here and stands significance. A break above $1,310.00 would be extremely encouraging for the bulls. But bulls need to take out $1,330.00 levels to remain in further control.
2.Immediate support is at $1,230.00/40.00, followed by $1,210.00 and lower, while resistance is at $1,330.00, $1,350.00/60.00 region, followed by $1,388.00 respectively.
3. The structure still reveals that Gold rally should extend at least till the $1,350.00 levels if not further. We would watch before entering fresh long positions though. $1,330.00 holds the key for now.

Trading recommendations:
1.Aggressive trade setup is to enter 50% long, stop at $1,240.00, target open.
2.Conservative a trade setup is to remain flat for now.




Silver

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.Silver breaks below $19.00 levels last week, and reversed sharply from sub $18.90 levels to regain all lost ground! The activity is encouraging for bulls and further push through $20.40 levels would confirm that the rally gathers pace. On the flip side, a reversal and break below $18.90 levels would be extremely bearish.
2.Immediate support remains at $18.75 and sub $18.00, while resistance is at $21.70/80(intermediary), followed by $22.10(intermediary) and $23.00 respectively.
3. The structure still reveals that bulls shall remain in control till prices remain above $18.75 levels from here on. High probability from current levels is for a rally though.

Trading recommendations:
1.Aggressive setup is to initiate 50% long positions stop at $18.40, target open.
2.Conservative setup is to remain flat.





Prepared by Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst at Capital Trust Markets

 

[CapitalTrustMarkets]

Technical Updates for April 29, 2014

EURAUD

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.The EURAUD has produced an engulfing bullish candlestick last week as seen here and rallied towards the 1.49/1.50 handle. The counter trend rally could gather pace and move higher towards 1.52 levels as projected here. Please also note that the 1.51/1.52 handle is past support turned resistance now, and rallies through 1.51 should be taken as opportunity to go short again. The 1.41 handle remains minimum expectations for now.
2. Immediate support is at 1.44, followed by 1.43 and lower, while resistance is at 1.51/1.52 (intermediary), followed by 1.55 and 1.58 respectively.
3.The structure reveals that a counter trend rally could be shaping up at the moment towards 1.51/1.52 handle, which is support turned resistance now. More conservative approach would be to initiate fresh short positions from higher levels.

Trading recommendations:
Remain flat for now. Looking to sell again around 1.51/1.52





Crude

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Crude reverses sharply after testing the 105.00 levels earlier as seen here. This could be a larger reversal towards the 96.50 levels or at least in to 101.00 as shown here. The intermediary support trend line is seen to be broken at the moment here, but yesterday was an indecision candle. Keeping the larger view in mind, the upside potential remains at 110.00 levels, till prices stay above 94.00.
2. Immediate support is at sub 97.00 and 96.00/50 levels (Fibonacci 0.618 support), followed by 94.00/30 and 92.00, while resistance is at 105.25 (intermediary), and followed by 108.00 and 110.00 respectively.
3. The structure remains in favour of bulls at the moment after bouncing off the 99.00 levels and reveals that they shall remain in control till prices stay above 99.00 levels in the near term and subsequently above 94.00 levels in the medium term. A corrective fall remains possible from current levels towards 96.50, though.

Trading recommendations:
Remain flat for now. Looking to buy lower.





Gold

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.Unchanged. Gold takes out $1,275.00 levels, prints lows at $1,270.00 and reverses sharply last week. The metal has produced a bullish reversal on the daily chart view here and stands significance. A break above $1,310.00 would be extremely encouraging for the bulls. But bulls need to take out $1,330.00 levels to remain in further control.
2.Immediate support is at $1,230.00/40.00, followed by $1,210.00 and lower, while resistance is at $1,330.00, $1,350.00/60.00 region, followed by $1,388.00 respectively.
3. The structure still reveals that Gold rally should extend at least till the $1,350.00 levels if not further. We would watch before entering fresh long positions though. $1,330.00 holds the key for now.

Trading recommendations:
1.Aggressive trade setup is to enter 50% long, stop at $1,240.00, target open.
2.Conservative a trade setup is to remain flat for now.




Silver

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.Unchanged. Silver breaks below $19.00 levels last week, and reversed sharply from sub $18.90 levels to regain all lost ground! The activity is encouraging for bulls and further push through $20.40 levels would confirm that the rally gathers pace. On the flip side, a reversal and break below $18.90 levels would be extremely bearish.
2.Immediate support remains at $18.75 and sub $18.00, while resistance is at $21.70/80(intermediary), followed by $22.10(intermediary) and $23.00 respectively.
3. The structure still reveals that bulls shall remain in control till prices remain above $18.75 levels from here on. High probability from current levels is for a rally though.

Trading recommendations:
1.Aggressive setup is to initiate 50% long positions stop at $18.40, target open.
2.Conservative setup is to remain flat.





Prepared by Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst at Capital Trust Markets

 

[CapitalTrustMarkets]

Technical Updates for April 30, 2014

EURAUD

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.The EURAUD has produced an engulfing bullish candlestick last week as seen here and rallied towards the 1.49/1.50 handle. The counter trend rally could gather pace and move higher towards 1.52 levels as projected here; at the
moment the pair is pulling back. A break below 1.4800/1.4750 will confirm that an intermediary top is in place. Please also note that the 1.51/1.52 handle is past support turned resistance now, and rallies through 1.51 should be taken as opportunity to go short again. The 1.41 handle remains minimum expectations for now.
2. Immediate support is at 1.44, followed by 1.43 and lower, while resistance is at 1.51/1.52 (intermediary), followed by 1.55 and 1.58 respectively.
3.The structure reveals that a counter trend rally could be shaping up at the moment towards 1.51/1.52 handle, which is support turned resistance now. The pair could reverse current levels as well. More conservative approach would be to initiate fresh short positions from higher levels.

Trading recommendations:
Remain flat for now. Looking to sell again around 1.51/1.52





Crude

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Crude reversed sharply after testing the 105.00 levels earlier as seen here. This could be a larger reversal towards the 96.50 levels or at least in to 101.00 as shown here. The intermediary support trend line is seen to be broken at the moment here, and prices have reversed after a back side test as seen. Keeping the larger view in mind, the upside potential remains at 110.00 levels, till prices stay above 94.00.
2. Immediate support is at sub 97.00 and 96.00/50 levels (Fibonacci 0.618 support), followed by 94.00/30 and 92.00, while resistance is at 105.25 (intermediary), and followed by 108.00 and 110.00 respectively.
3. The structure remains in favour of bulls at the moment after bouncing off the 99.00 levels and reveals that they shall remain in control till prices stay above 99.00 levels in the near term and subsequently above 94.00 levels in the medium term. A corrective fall remains possible from current levels towards 96.50, though.

Trading recommendations:
Remain flat for now. Looking to buy lower.





Gold

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.Unchanged. Gold takes out $1,275.00 levels, prints lows at $1,270.00 and reverses sharply last week. The metal has produced a bullish reversal on the daily chart view here and stands significance. A break above $1,310.00 would be extremely encouraging for the bulls. But bulls need to take out $1,330.00 levels to remain in further control.
2.Immediate support is at $1,230.00/40.00, followed by $1,210.00 and lower, while resistance is at $1,330.00, $1,350.00/60.00 region, followed by $1,388.00 respectively.
3. The structure still reveals that Gold rally should extend at least till the $1,350.00 levels if not further. We would watch before entering fresh long positions though. $1,330.00 holds the key for now.

Trading recommendations:
1.Aggressive trade setup is to enter 50% long, stop at $1,240.00, target open.
2.Conservative a trade setup is to remain flat for now.





Silver

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.Unchanged. Silver breaks below $19.00 levels last week, and reversed sharply from sub $18.90 levels to regain all lost ground! The activity is encouraging for bulls and further push through $20.40 levels would confirm that the rally gathers pace. On the flip side, a reversal and break below $18.90 levels would be extremely bearish.
2.Immediate support remains at $18.75 and sub $18.00, while resistance is at $21.70/80(intermediary), followed by $22.10(intermediary) and $23.00 respectively.
3. The structure still reveals that bulls shall remain in control till prices remain above $18.75 levels from here on. High probability from current levels is for a rally though.

Trading recommendations:
1.Aggressive setup is to initiate 50% long positions stop at $18.40, target open.
2.Conservative setup is to remain flat.





Prepared by Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst at Capital Trust Markets

 

[CapitalTrustMarkets]

Technical Updates for 01, May 2014

EURAUD

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.The EURAUD has produced an engulfing bullish candlestick last week as seen here and rallied towards the 1.49/1.50 handle. The counter trend rally could gather pace and move higher towards 1.52 levels as projected here. A break below 1.4800/1.4750 will confirm that an intermediary top is in place. Please also note that the 1.51/1.52 handle is past support turned resistance now, and rallies through 1.51 should be taken as opportunity to go short again. The 1.41 handle remains minimum expectations for now.
2. Immediate support is at 1.44, followed by 1.43 and lower, while resistance is at 1.51/1.52 (intermediary), followed by 1.55 and 1.58 respectively.
3.The structure reveals that a counter trend rally could be shaping up at the moment towards 1.51/1.52 handle, which is support turned resistance now. The pair could reverse current levels as well. More conservative approach would be to initiate fresh short positions from higher levels.

Trading recommendations:
Remain flat for now. Looking to sell again around 1.51/1.52





Crude

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Crude reversed sharply after testing the 105.00 levels earlier as seen here. This could be a larger reversal towards the 96.50 levels or at least in to 101.00 as shown here. The intermediary support trend line is seen to be broken at the moment here, and prices have reversed after a back side test as seen. Keeping the larger view in mind, the upside potential remains at 110.00 levels, till prices stay above 94.00. Now 97.50 remains of interest to go long again.
2. Immediate support is at sub 97.00 and 96.00/50 levels (Fibonacci 0.618 support), followed by 94.00/30 and 92.00, while resistance is at 105.25 (intermediary), and followed by 108.00 and 110.00 respectively.
3. The structure remains in favour of bulls at the moment after bouncing off the 99.00 levels and reveals that they shall remain in control till prices stay above 99.00 levels in the near term and subsequently above 94.00 levels in the medium term. A corrective fall remains possible from current levels towards 96.50, though.

Trading recommendations:
Remain flat for now. Looking to buy lower.





Gold

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.Unchanged. Gold takes out $1,275.00 levels, prints lows at $1,270.00 and reverses sharply last week. The metal has produced a bullish reversal on the daily chart view here and stands significance. A break above $1,310.00 would be extremely encouraging for the bulls. But bulls need to take out $1,330.00 levels to remain in further control.
2.Immediate support is at $1,230.00/40.00, followed by $1,210.00 and lower, while resistance is at $1,330.00, $1,350.00/60.00 region, followed by $1,388.00 respectively.
3. The structure still reveals that Gold rally should extend at least till the $1,350.00 levels if not further. We would watch before entering fresh long positions though. $1,330.00 holds the key for now.

Trading recommendations:
1.Aggressive trade setup is to enter 50% long, stop at $1,240.00, target open.
2.Conservative a trade setup is to remain flat for now.





Silver

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.Unchanged. Silver breaks below $19.00 levels last week, and reversed sharply from sub $18.90 levels to regain all lost ground! The activity is encouraging for bulls and further push through $20.40 levels would confirm that the rally gathers pace. On the flip side, a reversal and break below $18.90 levels would be extremely bearish.
2.Immediate support remains at $18.75 and sub $18.00, while resistance is at $21.70/80(intermediary), followed by $22.10(intermediary) and $23.00 respectively.
3. The structure still reveals that bulls shall remain in control till prices remain above $18.75 levels from here on. High probability from current levels is for a rally though.

Trading recommendations:
1.Aggressive setup is to initiate 50% long positions stop at $18.40, target open.
2.Conservative setup is to remain flat.





Prepared by Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst at Capital Trust Markets

 

[CapitalTrustMarkets]

Technical Updates for May 02, 2014

EURAUD

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.The EURAUD has produced an engulfing bullish candlestick last week as seen here and rallied towards the 1.49/1.50 handle. The counter trend rally could gather pace and move higher towards 1.52 levels as projected here. A break below 1.4800/1.4750 will confirm that an intermediary top is in place. Please also note that the 1.51/1.52 handle is past support turned resistance now, and rallies through 1.51 should be taken as opportunity to go short again. The 1.41 handle remains minimum expectations for now.
2. Immediate support is at 1.44, followed by 1.43 and lower, while resistance is at 1.51/1.52 (intermediary), followed by 1.55 and 1.58 respectively.
3.The structure reveals that a counter trend rally could be shaping up at the moment towards 1.51/1.52 handle, which is support turned resistance now. The pair could reverse current levels as well. More conservative approach would be to initiate fresh short positions from higher levels.

Trading recommendations:
Remain flat for now. Looking to sell again around 1.51/1.52





Crude

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Crude reversed sharply after testing the 105.00 levels earlier as seen here. This could be a larger reversal towards the 96.50 levels as shown here. The intermediary support trend line is seen to be broken at the moment here, and prices have reversed after a back side test as seen. Keeping the larger view in mind, the upside potential remains at 110.00 levels, till prices stay above 94.00. Now 97.50 remains of interest to go long again.
2. Immediate support is at sub 97.00 and 96.00/50 levels (Fibonacci 0.618 support), followed by 94.00/30 and 92.00, while resistance is at 105.25 (intermediary), and followed by 108.00 and 110.00 respectively.
3. The structure remains in favour of bulls at the moment after bouncing off the 99.00 levels and reveals that they shall remain in control till prices stay above 99.00 levels in the near term and subsequently above 94.00 levels in the medium term. A corrective fall remains possible from current levels towards 96.50, though.

Trading recommendations:
Remain flat for now. Looking to buy lower.





Gold

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Gold takes out $1,275.00 levels, prints lows at $1,270.00 and reverses sharply last week. The metal has produced a bullish reversal on the daily chart view here and stands significance. A break above $1,310.00 would be extremely encouraging for the bulls. But bulls need to take out $1,330.00 levels to remain in further control. At the moment, the metal has seen support at $1,280.00 handle and a rally may be a probability.
2.Immediate support is at $1,230.00/40.00, followed by $1,210.00 and lower, while resistance is at $1,330.00, $1,350.00/60.00 region, followed by $1,388.00 respectively.
3. The structure still reveals that Gold rally should extend at least till the $1,350.00 levels if not further. We would watch before entering fresh long positions though. $1,330.00 holds the key for now.

Trading recommendations:
1.Aggressive trade setup is to enter 50% long, stop at $1,240.00, target open.
2.Conservative a trade setup is to remain flat for now.





Silver

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Silver breaks below $19.00 levels yet again and prints fresh lows but the $18.75 handles remains intact for now. The activity is still encouraging for bulls and further push through $19.90/$20.40 levels would confirm that the rally gathers pace. On the flip side, a reversal and break below $18.90 levels would be extremely bearish.
2.Immediate support remains at $18.75 and sub $18.00, while resistance is at $19.90/$20.40, followed by $21.70/80(intermediary), $22.10(intermediary) and $23.00 respectively.
3. The structure still reveals that bulls shall remain in control till prices remain above $18.75 levels from here on. High probability from current levels is for a rally though.

Trading recommendations:
1.Aggressive setup is to initiate 50% long positions stop at $18.40, target open.
2.Conservative setup is to remain flat.





Prepared by Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst at Capital Trust Markets

 

[CapitalTrustMarkets]

Technical Updates for May 05, 2014

EURAUD

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.The EURAUD has produced an engulfing bullish candlestick last week as seen here and rallied towards the 1.49/1.50 handle. The counter trend rally could gather pace and move higher towards 1.52 levels as projected here. A break below 1.4800/1.4750 will confirm that an intermediary top is in place. Please also note that the 1.51/1.52 handle is past support turned resistance now, and rallies through 1.51 should be taken as opportunity to go short again. The 1.41 handle remains minimum expectations for now.
2. Immediate support is at 1.44, followed by 1.43 and lower, while resistance is at 1.51/1.52 (intermediary), followed by 1.55 and 1.58 respectively.
3.The structure reveals that a counter trend rally could be shaping up at the moment towards 1.51/1.52 handle, which is support turned resistance now. The pair could reverse current levels as well. More conservative approach would be to initiate fresh short positions from higher levels.

Trading recommendations:
Initiate 50% short positions now, risk is at 1.5200, target is open.





Crude

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Crude reversed sharply after testing the 105.00 levels earlier as seen here. This could be a larger reversal towards the 96.50 levels as shown here. The intermediary support trend line is seen to be broken at the moment here, and prices have reversed after a back side test as seen. Keeping the larger view in mind, the upside potential remains at 110.00 levels, till prices stay above 94.00. Now 97.50 remains of interest to go long again and 101.00 levels is immediate trend line resistance.
2. Immediate support is at sub 97.00 and 96.00/50 levels (Fibonacci 0.618 support), followed by 94.00/30 and 92.00, while resistance is at 105.25 (intermediary), and followed by 108.00 and 110.00 respectively.
3. The structure remains in favour of bulls at the moment after bouncing off the 99.00 levels and reveals that they shall remain in control till prices stay above 99.00 levels in the near term and subsequently above 94.00 levels in the medium term. A corrective fall remains possible from current levels towards 96.50, though.

Trading recommendations:
Remain flat for now. Looking to buy lower.





Gold

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Gold takes out $1,275.00 levels, prints lows at $1,270.00 and reverses sharply last week. The metal has produced a bullish reversal on the daily chart view here and stands significance. A break above $1,310.00 would be extremely encouraging for the bulls. But bulls need to take out $1,330.00 levels to remain in further control. At the moment, the metal has seen support at $1,280.00 handle and a rally may be a probability.
2.Immediate support is at $1,230.00/40.00, followed by $1,210.00 and lower, while resistance is at $1,330.00, $1,350.00/60.00 region, followed by $1,388.00 respectively.
3. The structure still reveals that Gold rally should extend at least till the $1,350.00 levels if not further. We would watch before entering fresh long positions though. $1,330.00 holds the key for now.

Trading recommendations:
1.Aggressive trade setup is to remain 50% long, stop at $1,240.00, target open.
2.Conservative a trade setup is to remain flat for now.




Silver

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Silver breaks below $19.00 levels yet again and prints fresh lows but the $18.75 handles remains intact for now. The activity is still encouraging for bulls and further push through $19.90/$20.40 levels would confirm that the rally gathers pace. Last week has produced an engulfing bullish reversal candlestick signal indicating further rally. On the flip side, a reversal and break below $18.90 levels would be extremely bearish.
2.Immediate support remains at $18.75 and sub $18.00, while resistance is at $19.90/$20.40, followed by $21.70/80(intermediary), $22.10(intermediary) and $23.00 respectively.
3. The structure still reveals that bulls shall remain in control till prices remain above $18.75 levels from here on. High probability from current levels is for a rally though.

Trading recommendations:
1.Aggressive setup is to remain 50% long positions stop at $18.40, target open.
2.Conservative setup is to remain flat.





Prepared by Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst at Capital Trust Markets

 

[CapitalTrustMarkets]

Technical Updates for May 06, 2014

EURAUD

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.The EURAUD has produced an engulfing bullish candlestick last week as seen here and rallied towards the 1.49/1.50 handle. The counter trend rally could gather pace and move higher towards 1.52 levels as projected here. A break below 1.4800/1.4750 will confirm that an intermediary top is in place. Please also note that the 1.51/1.52 handle is past support turned resistance now, and rallies through 1.51 should be taken as opportunity to go short again. The 1.41 handle remains minimum expectations for now.
2. Immediate support is at 1.44, followed by 1.43 and lower, while resistance is at 1.51/1.52 (intermediary), followed by 1.55 and 1.58 respectively.
3.The structure reveals that a counter trend rally could be shaping up at the moment towards 1.51/1.52 handle, which is support turned resistance now. The pair could reverse current levels as well. More conservative approach would be to initiate fresh short positions from higher levels.

Trading recommendations:
Initiate 50% short positions now, risk is at 1.5200, target is open.





Crude

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Crude reversed sharply after testing the 105.00 levels earlier as seen here. This could be a larger reversal towards the 96.50 levels as shown. The intermediary support trend line is seen to be broken at the moment here, and prices have reversed after a back side test as seen. Keeping the larger view in mind, the upside potential remains at 110.00 levels, till prices stay above 94.00. Now 97.50 remains of interest to go long again and 101.00 levels is immediate trend line resistance.
2. Immediate support is at sub 97.00 and 96.00/50 levels (Fibonacci 0.618 support), followed by 94.00/30 and 92.00, while resistance is at 105.25 (intermediary), and followed by 108.00 and 110.00 respectively.
3. The structure remains in favour of bulls at the moment after bouncing off the 99.00 levels and reveals that they shall remain in control till prices stay above 99.00 levels in the near term and subsequently above 94.00 levels in the medium term. A corrective fall remains possible from current levels towards 96.50, though.

Trading recommendations:
Remain flat for now. Looking to buy lower.





Gold

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Gold takes out $1,275.00 levels, prints lows at $1,270.00 and reverses sharply last week. The metal has produced a bullish reversal on the daily chart view here and stands significance. The metal has broken above the intermediary downtrend line and furthermore the $1,310.00 levels, which is extremely encouraging for the bulls. But still the yellow metal need to take out $1,330.00 levels to remain in further control. At the moment, the metal has seen support at $1,280.00 handle and a rally may be a probability.
2.Immediate support is at $1,230.00/40.00, followed by $1,210.00 and lower, while resistance is at $1,330.00, $1,350.00/60.00 region, followed by $1,388.00 respectively.
3. The structure still reveals that Gold rally should extend at least till the $1,350.00 levels if not further. We would watch before entering fresh long positions though. $1,330.00 holds the key for now.

Trading recommendations:
1.Aggressive trade setup is to remain 50% long, stop at $1,240.00, target open.
2.Conservative a trade setup is to remain flat for now.





Silver

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Silver breaks below $19.00 levels yet again and prints fresh lows but the $18.75 handles remains intact for now. The activity is still encouraging for bulls and further push through $19.90/$20.40 levels would confirm that the rally gathers pace. Last week has produced an engulfing bullish reversal candlestick signal indicating further rally. On the flip side, a reversal and break below $18.90 levels would be extremely bearish.
2.Immediate support remains at $18.75 and sub $18.00, while resistance is at $19.90/$20.40, followed by $21.70/80(intermediary), $22.10(intermediary) and $23.00 respectively.
3. The structure still reveals that bulls shall remain in control till prices remain above $18.75 levels from here on. High probability from current levels is for a rally though.

Trading recommendations:
1.Aggressive setup is to remain 50% long positions stop at $18.40, target open.
2.Conservative setup is to remain flat.





Prepared by Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst at Capital Trust Markets

 

[CapitalTrustMarkets]

Technical Updates for May 07, 2014

EURAUD

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.Unchanged. The EURAUD has produced an engulfing bullish candlestick last week as seen here and rallied towards the 1.49/1.50 handle. The counter trend rally could gather pace and move higher towards 1.52 levels as projected here. A break below 1.4800/1.4750 will confirm that an intermediary top is in place. Please also note that the 1.51/1.52 handle is past support turned resistance now, and rallies through 1.51 should be taken as opportunity to go short again. The 1.41 handle remains minimum expectations for now.
2. Immediate support is at 1.44, followed by 1.43 and lower, while resistance is at 1.51/1.52 (intermediary), followed by 1.55 and 1.58 respectively.
3.The structure reveals that a counter trend rally could be shaping up at the moment towards 1.51/1.52 handle, which is support turned resistance now. The pair could reverse current levels as well. More conservative approach would be to initiate fresh short positions from higher levels.

Trading recommendations:
Initiate 50% short positions now, risk is at 1.5200, target is open.




Crude

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Crude reversed sharply after testing the 105.00 levels earlier as seen here. This could be a larger reversal towards the 96.50 levels as shown. The intermediary support trend line is seen to be broken at the moment here, and prices have reversed after a back side test as seen. Keeping the larger view in mind, the upside potential remains at 110.00 levels, till prices stay above 94.00. Now 97.50 remains of interest to go long again and 101.00 levels is immediate trend line resistance.
2. Immediate support is at sub 97.00 and 96.00/50 levels (Fibonacci 0.618 support), followed by 94.00/30 and 92.00, while resistance is at 105.25 (intermediary), and followed by 108.00 and 110.00 respectively.
3. The structure remains in favour of bulls at the moment after bouncing off the 99.00 levels and reveals that they shall remain in control till prices stay above 99.00 levels in the near term and subsequently above 94.00 levels in the medium term. A corrective fall remains possible from current levels towards 96.50, though.

Trading recommendations:
Remain flat for now. Looking to buy lower.




Gold

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Gold takes out $1,275.00 levels, prints lows at $1,270.00 and reverses sharply last week. The metal has produced a bullish reversal on the daily chart view here and stands significance. The metal has broken above the intermediary downtrend line and furthermore the $1,310.00 levels, which is extremely encouraging for the bulls. But still the yellow metal need to take out $1,330.00 levels to remain in further control. At the moment, the metal has seen support at $1,280.00 handle and a rally may be a probability.
2.Immediate support is at $1,230.00/40.00, followed by $1,210.00 and lower, while resistance is at $1,330.00, $1,350.00/60.00 region, followed by $1,388.00 respectively.
3. The structure still reveals that Gold rally should extend at least till the $1,350.00 levels if not further. We would watch before entering fresh long positions though. $1,330.00 holds the key for now.

Trading recommendations:
Exit long positions. Remain flat for now.




Silver

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Silver breaks below $19.00 levels yet again and prints fresh lows but the $18.75 handles remains intact for now. The activity is still encouraging for bulls and further push through $19.90/$20.40 levels would confirm that the rally gathers pace. Last week has produced an engulfing bullish reversal candlestick signal indicating further rally. On the flip side, a reversal and break below $18.90 levels would be extremely bearish.
2.Immediate support remains at $18.75 and sub $18.00, while resistance is at $19.90/$20.40, followed by $21.70/80(intermediary), $22.10(intermediary) and $23.00 respectively.
3. The structure still reveals that bulls shall remain in control till prices remain above $18.75 levels from here on. High probability from current levels is for a rally though.

Trading recommendations:
Exit long positions. Remain flat for now.




Prepared by Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst at Capital Trust Markets

 

[CapitalTrustMarkets]

Technical Updates for May 08, 2014

EURAUD

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.Unchanged. The EURAUD has produced an engulfing bullish candlestick last week as seen here and rallied towards the 1.49/1.50 handle. The counter trend rally might have completed at the 1.5 handle as seen here. A break below 1.4800/1.4750 will confirm that an intermediary top is in place. Please also note that the 1.51/1.52 handle is past support turned resistance now, and rallies through 1.51 should be taken as opportunity to go short again. The 1.41 handle remains minimum expectations for now.
2. Immediate support is at 1.44, followed by 1.43 and lower, while resistance is at 1.51/1.52 (intermediary), followed by 1.55 and 1.58 respectively.
3.The structure reveals that a counter trend rally could be shaping up at the moment towards 1.51/1.52 handle, which is support turned resistance now. The pair could reverse current levels as well. More conservative approach would be to initiate fresh short positions from higher levels.

Trading recommendations:
Remain 50% short positions now, risk is at 1.5200, and target is open.





Crude

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Crude reversed sharply after testing the 105.00 levels earlier as seen here. This could be a larger reversal towards the 96.50 levels as shown. The intermediary support trend line is seen to be broken at the moment here, and prices have reversed after a back side test as seen. Keeping the larger view in mind, the upside potential remains at 110.00 levels, till prices stay above 94.00. Now 97.50 remains of interest to go long again and 101.00 levels is immediate trend line resistance.
2. Immediate support is at sub 97.00 and 96.00/50 levels (Fibonacci 0.618 support), followed by 94.00/30 and 92.00, while resistance is at 105.25 (intermediary), and followed by 108.00 and 110.00 respectively.
3. The structure remains in favour of bulls at the moment after bouncing off the 99.00 levels and reveals that they shall remain in control till prices stay above 99.00 levels in the near term and subsequently above 94.00 levels in the medium term. A corrective fall remains possible from current levels towards 96.50, though.

Trading recommendations:
Initiate 50% longs now, stop at 98.00, target is open.




Gold

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Gold takes out $1,275.00 levels, prints lows at $1,270.00 and reverses sharply last week. The metal has produced a bullish reversal (last week) on the daily chart view here and stands significance. Furthermore it has broken above the intermediary downtrend line and furthermore the $1,310.00 levels, which is extremely encouraging for the bulls. But still the yellow metal need to take out $1,330.00 levels to remain in further control. At the moment, the metal has seen support at $1,280.00 handle and a rally may be a probability.
2.Immediate support is at $1,230.00/40.00, followed by $1,210.00 and lower, while resistance is at $1,330.00, $1,350.00/60.00 region, followed by $1,388.00 respectively.
3. The structure still reveals that Gold rally should extend at least till the $1,350.00 levels if not further. We would watch before entering fresh long positions though. $1,330.00 holds the key for now.

Trading recommendations:
Initiate 50% long now, stop below $1,270.00, target is open.





Silver

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Silver breaks below $19.00 levels yet again and prints fresh lows last week, but the $18.75 handles remains intact for now. The activity is still encouraging for bulls and further push through $19.90/$20.40 levels would confirm that the rally gathers pace. Furthermore, the metal has produced an engulfing bullish reversal candlestick signal indicating further rally. On the flip side, a reversal and break below $18.90 levels would be extremely bearish.
2.Immediate support remains at $18.75 and sub $18.00, while resistance is at $19.90/$20.40, followed by $21.70/80(intermediary), $22.10(intermediary) and $23.00 respectively.
3. The structure still reveals that bulls shall remain in control till prices remain above $18.75 levels from here on. High probability from current levels is for a rally though.

Trading recommendations:
Initiate 50% long positions now. Stop at $18.00, target is open.




Prepared by Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst at Capital Trust Markets

 

[CapitalTrustMarkets]

Technical Updates for May 09, 2014

EURAUD

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.Unchanged. The EURAUD has produced an engulfing bullish candlestick last week as seen here and rallied towards the 1.49/1.50 handle. The counter trend rally might have completed at the 1.5 handle as seen here. A break below 1.4800/1.4750 will confirm that an intermediary top is in place. Please also note that the 1.51/1.52 handle is past support turned resistance now, and rallies through 1.51 should be taken as opportunity to go short again. The 1.41 handle remains minimum expectations for now.
2. Immediate support is at 1.44, followed by 1.43 and lower, while resistance is at 1.51/1.52 (intermediary), followed by 1.55 and 1.58 respectively.
3.The structure reveals that a counter trend rally could be shaping up (probable finished) at the moment towards 1.51/1.52 handle, which is support turned resistance now. The pair could reverse current levels as well. More conservative approach would be to initiate fresh short positions from higher levels.

Trading recommendations:
Remain 50% short positions now, risk is at 1.5200, and target is open.





Crude

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Crude reversed sharply after testing the 105.00 levels earlier as seen here. This could be a larger reversal towards the 96.50 levels as shown. The intermediary support trend line is seen to be broken at the moment here, and prices have reversed after a back side test as seen. Keeping the larger view in mind, the upside potential remains at 110.00 levels, till prices stay above 94.00. Now 97.50 remains of interest to go long again and 101.00 levels is immediate trend line resistance.
2. Immediate support is at sub 97.00 and 96.00/50 levels (Fibonacci 0.618 support), followed by 94.00/30 and 92.00, while resistance is at 105.25 (intermediary), and followed by 108.00 and 110.00 respectively.
3. The structure remains in favour of bulls at the moment after bouncing off the 99.00 levels and reveals that they shall remain in control till prices stay above 99.00 levels in the near term and subsequently above 94.00 levels in the medium term. A corrective fall remains possible from current levels towards 96.50, though.

Trading recommendations:
Initiate 50% longs now, stop at 98.00, target is open.





Gold

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Gold takes out $1,275.00 levels, prints lows at $1,270.00 and reverses sharply last week. The metal has produced a bullish reversal (last week) on the daily chart view here and stands significance. Furthermore it has broken above the intermediary downtrend line and furthermore the $1,310.00 levels, which is extremely encouraging for the bulls. But still the yellow metal need to take out $1,330.00 levels to remain in further control. At the moment, the metal has seen support at $1,280.00 handle and a rally may be a probability. Prices can reach up to $1,365.00 levels.
2.Immediate support is at $1,230.00/40.00, followed by $1,210.00 and lower, while resistance is at $1,330.00, $1,350.00/60.00 region, followed by $1,388.00 respectively.
3. The structure still reveals that Gold rally should extend at least till the $1,350.00 levels if not further. We would watch before entering fresh long positions though. $1,330.00 holds the key for now.

Trading recommendations:
Initiate 50% long now, stop below $1,270.00, target is open.





Silver

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Silver breaks below $19.00 levels yet again and prints fresh lows last week, but the $18.75 handles remains intact for now. The activity is still encouraging for bulls and further push through $19.90/$20.40 levels would confirm that the rally gathers pace. Furthermore, the metal has produced an engulfing bullish reversal candlestick signal indicating further rally. On the flip side, a reversal and break below $18.90 levels would be extremely bearish.
2.Immediate support remains at $18.75 and sub $18.00, while resistance is at $19.90/$20.40, followed by $21.70/80(intermediary), $22.10(intermediary) and $23.00 respectively.
3. The structure still reveals that bulls shall remain in control till prices remain above $18.75 levels from here on. High probability from current levels is for a rally though.

Trading recommendations:
Initiate 50% long positions now. Stop at $18.00, target is open.





Prepared by Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst at Capital Trust Markets

 

[CapitalTrustMarkets]

Technical Updates for May 11, 2014

EURAUD

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1.Unchanged. The EURAUD has produced an engulfing bullish candlestick last week as seen here and rallied towards the 1.49/1.50 handle. The counter trend rally might have completed at the 1.5 handle as seen here. A break below 1.4800/1.4750 will confirm that an intermediary top is in place. Please also note that the 1.51/1.52 handle is past support turned resistance now, and rallies through 1.51 should be taken as opportunity to go short again. The 1.41 handle remains minimum expectations for now.
2. Immediate support is at 1.44, followed by 1.43 and lower, while resistance is at 1.51/1.52 (intermediary), followed by 1.55 and 1.58 respectively.
3.The structure reveals that a counter trend rally could be shaping up (probable finished) at the moment towards 1.51/1.52 handle, which is support turned resistance now. The pair could reverse current levels as well. More conservative approach would be to initiate fresh short positions from higher levels.

Trading recommendations:
Remain 50% short positions now, risk is at 1.5200, and target is open.





Crude

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Crude reversed sharply after testing the 105.00 levels earlier as seen here. This could be a larger reversal towards the 96.50 levels as shown. Keeping the larger view in mind, the upside potential remains up to 110.00 levels, till prices stay above 94.00. Now 97.50 remains of interest to go long again and 101.00 levels is immediate trend line resistance.
2. Immediate support is at sub 97.00 and 96.00/50 levels (Fibonacci 0.618 support), followed by 94.00/30 and 92.00, while resistance is at 105.25 (intermediary), and followed by 108.00 and 110.00 respectively.
3. The structure remains in favour of bulls at the moment after bouncing off the 99.00 levels and reveals that they shall remain in control till prices stay above 99.00 levels in the near term and subsequently above 94.00 levels in the medium term. A corrective fall remains possible from current levels towards 96.50, though.

Trading recommendations:
Remain flat; look to buy lower.





Gold

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Gold takes out $1,275.00 levels, prints lows at $1,270.00 and reverses sharply last week. The metal has produced a bullish reversal (last week) on the daily chart view here and stands significance. Furthermore it has broken above the intermediary downtrend line and furthermore the $1,310.00 levels, which is extremely encouraging for the bulls. But still the yellow metal need to take out $1,330.00 levels to remain in further control. At the moment, the metal has seen support at $1,280.00 handle and a rally may be a probability. Prices can reach up to $1,365.00 levels.
2.Immediate support is at $1,230.00/40.00, followed by $1,210.00 and lower, while resistance is at $1,330.00, $1,350.00/60.00 region, followed by $1,388.00 respectively.
3. The structure still reveals that Gold rally should extend at least till the $1,350.00 levels if not further. We would watch before entering fresh long positions though. $1,330.00 holds the key for now.

Trading recommendations:
Remain 50% long now, stop below $1,270.00, target is open.





Silver

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Silver breaks below $19.00 levels yet again and prints fresh lows last week, but the $18.75 handles remains intact for now. The activity is still encouraging for bulls and further push through $19.90/$20.40 levels would confirm that the rally gathers pace. Furthermore, the metal has produced an engulfing bullish reversal candlestick signal indicating further rally. On the flip side, a reversal and break below $18.90 levels would be extremely bearish.
2.Immediate support remains at $18.75 and sub $18.00, while resistance is at $19.90/$20.40, followed by $21.70/80(intermediary), $22.10(intermediary) and $23.00 respectively.
3. The structure still reveals that bulls shall remain in control till prices remain above $18.75 levels from here on. High probability from current levels is for a rally though.

Trading recommendations:
Initiate 50% long positions now. Stop at $18.00, target is open.





Prepared by Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst at Capital Trust Markets