Chifbaw Technical analysis and trade recommendations

[Chifbaw]

Math models afternoon update

15th of February 2013

BETA – Propareos levels (90% probabilities of price action reversal or saturation valid till 16:00 GMT):

EURUSD: 1.3395-1.3410 on the upside, 1.3250-1.3265 on the downside.
AUDUSD: 1.0385-1.0400 on the upside, 1.0290-1.0305 on the downside.
USDJPY: 94.15-94.30 on the upside, 92.00-92.15 on the downside.
GBPUSD: 1.5565-1.5580 on the upside, 1.5425-1.5440 on the downside.
USDCAD: 1.0075-1.0090 on the upside, 0.9970-0.9985 on the downside.
NZDUSD: 0.8550-0.8565 on the upside, 0.8405-0.8420 on the downside.
EURJPY: 125.45-125.60 on the upside, 122.75-122.90 on the downside.
EURGBP: 0.8705-0.8720 on the upside, 0.8550-0.8565 on the downside.
USDCHF: 0.9285-0.9300 on the upside, 0.9135-0.9150 on the downside.
AUDJPY: 96.95-97.10 on the upside, 95.15-95.30 on the downside.
EURAUD: 1.2995-1.3010 on the upside, 1.2850-1.2865 0n the downside.
Warning! Propareos levels do not take into account fundamental developments. Their validity is reduced on days when the NFP is released and when Central Banks change their interest rate.

For guidance on how to use this information, please go to http://www.chifbaw.com/en/forex-analysis/mathematical-models/promoreos/how-to-use/

 

[Chifbaw]

Weekly analysis and trade recommendations

February 17, 2013

Recommendations:

Medium: Short the USDJPY at 94.50, SL 95.00, targets 93.5, 91.85.
Risky: Buy the EURUSD at 1.318, SL 1.3120, targets 1.325, 1.335.
Risky: Short the EURUSD at 1.35, SL 1.3550, targets 1.34, 1.33, 1.318.
Analysis:

Last week, our analysis that the rise of the USDJPY would take a pause turned out to be correct although the levels of our medium trade recommendations were incorrect (SL 94.3 broken by 15 pips). We still maintain that the USDJPY is in an area where a minor correction towards 91/92 is highly probable. The finance ministers’ G20 summit seems to have given the Japanese government an orange light, suggesting that the move from 78 to 94 is in the realm of the acceptable but that further advances should be smoothed over time. This is why we are convinced that the Japanese government will try to keep the USDJPY below 100 for the coming several months.

The EURUSD has failed to fall below 1.33 as we were expecting. However, it has also failed to make any further move up and ended the week at the same level as it started. An indecision doji has formed following a weak bearish engulfing. We still think the EURUSD has more downside at the moment, and the negative economic data published last week should continue to affect negatively the dynamic of this pair. A possible trade is to enter short on the upper end of the doji around 1.35. On the other side, a buy opportunity could arise in case we reach the channel support trend line around 1.3185.

USDJPY 4H Chart

EURUSD Weekly chart

 

[Chifbaw]

Math models daily update

18th of February 2013

BETA - Propareos levels (90% probabilities of price action reversal or saturation valid till 10:00 GMT):

EURUSD: 1.3400-1.3415 on the upside, 1.3290-1.3305 on the downside.
AUDUSD: 1.0430-1.0445 on the upside, 1.0220-1.0235 on the downside.
USDJPY: 95.55-95.70 on the upside, 91.70-91.85 on the downside.
GBPUSD: 1.5595-1.5610 on the upside, 1.5425-1.5440 on the downside.
USDCAD: 1.0150-1.0165 on the upside, 0.9965-0.9980 on the downside.
NZDUSD: 0.8570-0.8585 on the upside, 0.8340-0.8355 on the downside.
EURJPY: 127.40-127.55 on the upside, 122.70-122.85 on the downside.
EURGBP: 0.8655-0.8670 on the upside, 0.8560-0.8575 on the downside.
USDCHF: 0.9280-0.9295 on the upside, 0.9165-0.9180 on the downside.
AUDJPY: 97.75-97.90 on the upside, 95.60-95.75 on the downside.
EURAUD: 1.3070-1.3085 on the upside, 1.2845-1.2860 on the downside.
Warning! Propareos levels do not take into account fundamental developments. Their validity is reduced on days when the NFP is released and when Central Banks change their interest rate.

Afternoon! models have been published and are available to view on our site:
http://www.chifbaw.com/en/forex-analysis/mathematical-models/daily-update/

 

[Chifbaw]

Math models daily update

19th of February 2013

BETA - Propareos levels (90% probabilities of price action reversal or saturation valid till 10:00 GMT):

• EURUSD: 1.3395-1.3410 on the upside, 1.3295-1.3310 on the downside.
• AUDUSD: 1.0395-1.0410 on the upside, 1.0230-1.0245 on the downside.
• USDJPY: 95.10-95.25 on the upside, 92.10-92.25 on the downside.
• GBPUSD: 1.5550-1.5565 on the upside, 1.5395-1.5410 on the downside.
• USDCAD: 1.0170-1.0185 on the upside, 0.9975-0.9990 on the downside.
• NZDUSD: 0.8495-0.8510 on the upside, 0.8360-0.8375 on the downside.
• EURJPY: 127.00-127.15 on the upside, 123.50-123.65 on the downside.
• EURGBP: 0.8675-0.8690 on the upside, 0.8560-0.8575 on the downside.
• USDCHF: 0.9270-0.9285 on the upside, 0.9180-0.9195 on the downside.
• AUDJPY: 97.50-97.65 on the upside, 95.40-95.55 on the downside.
• EURAUD: 1.3030-1.3045 on the upside, 1.2880-1.2895 on the downside.

Warning! Propareos levels do not take into account fundamental developments. Their validity is reduced on days when the NFP is released and when Central Banks change their interest rate.

For guidance on how to use this information, please go to http://www.chifbaw.com/en/forex-analysis/mathematical-models/promoreos/how-to-use/

 

[Chifbaw]

Math models afternoon update

19th of February 2013

BETA - Propareos levels[/SIZE] (90% probabilities of price action reversal or saturation valid till 16:00 GMT):

• EURUSD: 1.3385-1.3400 on the upside, 1.3285-1.3300 on the downside.
• AUDUSD: 1.0385-1.0400 on the upside, 1.0275-1.0290 on the downside.
• USDJPY: 94.35-94.50 on the upside, 92.90-93.05 on the downside.
• GBPUSD: 1.5515-1.5530 on the upside, 1.5430-1.5445 on the downside.
• USDCAD: 1.0165-1.0180 on the upside, 1.0035-1.0050 on the downside.
• NZDUSD: 0.8480-0.8495 on the upside, 0.8385-0.8400 on the downside.
• EURJPY: 125.95-126.10 on the upside, 124.00-124.15 on the downside.
• EURGBP: 0.8680-0.8695 on the upside, 0.8580-0.8595 on the downside.
• USDCHF: 0.9265-0.9280 on the upside, 0.9190-0.9205 on the downside.
• AUDJPY: 97.15-97.30 on the upside, 96.10-96.25 on the downside.
• EURAUD: 1.3010-1.3025 on the upside, 1.2880-1.2895 on the downside.

Warning! Propareos levels do not take into account fundamental developments. Their validity is reduced on days when the NFP is released and when Central Banks change their interest rate.

For guidance on how to use this information, please go to http://www.chifbaw.com/en/forex-analysis/mathematical-models/promoreos/how-to-use/

 

[Chifbaw]

Math models daily update

20th of February 2013

BETA - Propareos levels (90% probabilities of price action reversal or saturation valid till 10:00 GMT):

EURUSD: 1.3475-1.3490 on the upside, 1.3300-1.3315 on the downside.
AUDUSD: 1.0395-1.0410 on the upside, 1.0270-1.0285 on the downside.
USDJPY: 94.35-94.50 on the upside, 92.75-92.90 on the downside.
GBPUSD: 1.5545-1.5560 on the upside, 1.5380-1.5395 on the downside.
USDCAD: 1.0145-1.0160 on the upside, 1.0080-1.0095 on the downside.
NZDUSD: 0.8510-0.8525 on the upside, 0.8335-0.8350 on the downside.
EURJPY: 125.95-126.10 on the upside, 123.80-123.95 on the downside.
EURGBP: 0.8770-0.8785 on the upside, 0.8575-0.8590 on the downside.
USDCHF: 0.9265-0.9280 on the upside, 0.9160-0.9175 on the downside.
AUDJPY: 97.10-97.25 on the upside, 96.10-96.25 on the downside.
EURAUD: 1.2995-1.3010 on the upside, 1.2860-1.2875 on the downside.
Warning! Propareos levels do not take into account fundamental developments. Their validity is reduced on days when the NFP is released and when Central Banks change their interest rate.

For guidance on how to use this information, please go to http://www.chifbaw.com/en/forex-analysis/mathematical-models/promoreos/how-to-use/

 

[Chifbaw]

Math models afternoon update

20th of February 2013

BETA - Propareos levels (90% probabilities of price action reversal or saturation valid till 16:00 GMT):

• EURUSD: 1.3435-1.3450 on the upside, 1.3280-1.3295 on the downside.
• AUDUSD: 1.0390-1.0405 on the upside, 1.0270-1.0285 on the downside.
• USDJPY: 94.15-94.30 on the upside, 92.90-93.05 on the downside.
• GBPUSD: 1.5565-1.5580 on the upside, 1.5175-1.5190 on the downside.
• USDCAD: 1.0180-1.0195 on the upside, 1.0060-1.0075 on the downside.
• NZDUSD: 0.8550-0.8565 on the upside, 0.8280-0.8295 on the downside.
• EURJPY: 125.85-126.00 on the upside, 124.25-124.40 on the downside.
• EURGBP: 0.8805-0.8820 on the upside, 0.8580-0.8595 on the downside.
• USDCHF: 0.9285-0.9300 on the upside, 0.9170-0.9185 on the downside.
• AUDJPY: 97.15-97.30 on the upside, 95.90-96.05 on the downside.

• EURAUD: 1.3015-1.3030 on the upside, 1.2885-1.2900 on the downside.

Warning! Propareos levels do not take into account fundamental developments. Their validity is reduced on days when the NFP is released and when Central Banks change their interest rate.

For guidance on how to use this information, please go to http://www.chifbaw.com/en/forex-analysis/mathematical-models/promoreos/how-to-use/

 

[Chifbaw]

Math models daily update

21st of February 2013

BETA - Propareos levels (90% probabilities of price action reversal or saturation valid till 10:00 GMT):

• EURUSD: 1.3430-1.3445 on the upside, 1.3175-1.3180 on the downside.
• AUDU
• USDJPY: 94.30-94.45 on the upside, 92.85-93.00 on the downside.
• GBPUSD: 1.5575-1.5590 on the upside, 1.5030-1.5045 on the downside.
• USDCAD: 1.0250-1.0265 on the upside, 1.0060-1.0075 on the downside.
• NZDUSD: 0.8500-0.8515 on the upside, 0.8250-0.8265 on the downside.
• EURJPY: 125.80-125.95 on the upside, 122.50-122.65 on the downside.
• EURGBP: 0.8860-0.8875 on the upside, 0.8580-0.8595 on the downside.
• USDCHF: 0.9385-0.94.00 on the upside, 0.9165-0.9180 on the downside.
• UDJPY: 97.10-97.25 on the upside, 94.65-94.80 on the downside.
• EURAUD: 1.3035-1.3050 on the upside, 1.2860-1.2875 on the downside.

Warning! Propareos levels do not take into account fundamental developments. Their validity is reduced on days when the NFP is released and when Central Banks change their interest rate.

For guidance on how to use this information, please go to http://www.chifbaw.com/en/forex-analysis/mathematical-models/promoreos/how-to-use/

 

[Chifbaw]

Math models afternoon update

21st of February 2013

BETA - Propareos levels (90% probabilities of price action reversal or saturation valid till 16:00 GMT):

• EURUSD: 1.3405-1.3420 on the upside, 1.3100-1.3115 on the downside.
• AUDUSD: 1.0320-1.0335 on the upside, 1.0205-1.0220 on the downside.
• USDJPY: 94.45-94.60 on the upside, 91.85-92.00 on the downside.
• GBPUSD: 1.5390-1.5405 on the upside, 1.5110-1.5125 on the downside.
• USDCAD: 1.0255-1.0270 on the upside, 1.0060-1.0075 on the downside.
• NZDUSD: 0.8520-0.8535 on the upside, 0.8220-0.8235 on the downside.
• EURJPY: 125.75-125.90 on the upside, 121.60-121.75 on the downside.
• EURGBP: 0.8805-0.8820 on the upside, 0.8510-0.8525 on the downside.
• USDCHF: 0.9375-0.9390 on the upside, 0.9190-0.9205 on the downside.
• AUDJPY: 96.90-97.05 on the upside, 94.30-94.45 on the downside.
• EURAUD: 1.3015-1.3030 on the upside, 1.2790-1.2805 on the downside.

Warning! Propareos levels do not take into account fundamental developments. Their validity is reduced on days when the NFP is released and when Central Banks change their interest rate.

For guidance on how to use this information, please go to http://www.chifbaw.com/en/forex-analysis/mathematical-models/promoreos/how-to-use/

 

[Chifbaw]

Math models daily update

22nd of February 2013

BETA - Propareos levels (90% probabilities of price action reversal or saturation valid till 10:00 GMT):

• EURUSD: 1.3455-1.3470 on the upside, 1.3050-1.3065 on the downside.
• AUDUSD: 1.0425-1.0440 on the upside, 1.0210-1.0225 on the downside.
• USDJPY: 94.80-94.95 on the upside, 92.30-92.45 on the downside.
• GBPUSD: 1.5700-1.5715 on the upside, 1.5120-1.5135 on the downside.
• USDCAD: 1.0255-1.0270 on the upside, 1.0010-1.0025 on the downside.
• NZDUSD: 0.8550-0.8565 on the upside, 0.8250-0.8265 on the downside.
• EURJPY: 126.65-126.80 on the upside, 121.50-121.65 on the downside.
• EURGBP: 0.8800-0.8815 on the upside, 0.8525-0.8540 on the downside.
• USDCHF: 0.9385-0.94.00 on the upside, 0.9160-0.9175 on the downside.
• AUDJPY: 97.80-97.95 on the upside, 94.55-94.70 on the downside.
• EURAUD: 1.3080-1.3095 on the upside, 1.2695-1.2710 on the downside.

Warning! Propareos levels do not take into account fundamental developments. Their validity is reduced on days when the NFP is released and when Central Banks change their interest rate.

For guidance on how to use this information, please go to http://www.chifbaw.com/en/forex-analysis/mathematical-models/promoreos/how-to-use/

 

[Chifbaw]

Math models afternoon update

22nd February 2013

BETA - Propareos levels (90% probabilities of price action reversal or saturation valid till 16:00 GMT)

• EURUSD: 1.3275-1.3290 on the upside, 1.3105-1.3120 on the downside.
• AUDUSD: 1.0395-1.0410 on the upside, 1.0170-1.0185 on the downside.
• USDJPY: 94.40-94.55 on the upside, 92.55-92.70 on the downside.
• GBPUSD: 1.5365-1.5380 on the upside, 1.5200-1.5215 on the downside.
• USDCAD: 1.0295-1.0310 on the upside, 1.0150-1.0165 on the downside.
• NZDUSD: 0.8450-0.8465 on the upside, 0.8280-0.8295 on the downside.
• EURJPY: 124.25-124.40 on the upside, 121.85-122.00 on the downside.
• EURGBP: 0.8685-0.8700 on the upside, 0.8540-0.8555 on the downside.
• USDCHF: 0.9385-0.9400 on the upside, 0.9145-0.960 on the downside.
• AUDJPY: 97.30-97.45 on the upside, 94.40-94.55 on the downside.
• EURAUD: 1.2895-1.2910 on the upside, 1.2675-1.2690 on the downside.

Warning! Propareos levels do not take into account fundamental developments. Their validity is reduced on days when the NFP is released and when Central Banks change their interest rate.

For guidance on how to use this information, please go to http://www.chifbaw.com/en/forex-analysis/mathematical-models/promoreos/how-to-use/

 

[Chifbaw]

Math models daily update

25th of February 2013

BETA - Propareos levels (90% probabilities of price action reversal or saturation valid till 10:00 GMT):

• EURUSD: 1.3285-1.3300 on the upside, 1.3100-1.3115 on the downside.
• AUDUSD: 1.0380-1.0395 on the upside, 1.0200-1.0215 on the downside.
• USDJPY: 95.10-95.25 on the upside, 92.60-92.75 on the downside.
• GBPUSD: 1.5405-1.5420 on the upside, 1.4990-1.5005 on the downside.
• USDCAD: 1.0320-1.0335 on the upside, 1.0150-1.0165 on the downside.
• NZDUSD: 0.8475-0.8490 on the upside, 0.8245-0.8260 on the downside.
• EURJPY: 125.65-125.80 on the upside, 122.30-122.45 on the downside.
• EURGBP: 0.8815-0.8830 on the upside, 0.8550-0.8565 on the downside.
• USDCHF: 0.9360-0.9375 on the upside, 0.9210-0.9225 on the downside.
• AUDJPY: 97.75-97.90 on the upside, 94.40-94.55 on the downside.
• EURAUD: 1.2955-1.2970 on the upside, 1.2665-1.2680 on the downside.
• GBPJPY: 143.65-143.80 on the upside, 141.45-141.60 on the downside.

Warning! Propareos levels do not take into account fundamental developments. Their validity is reduced on days when the NFP is released and when Central Banks change their interest rate.

For guidance on how to use this information, please go to http://www.chifbaw.com/en/forex-analysis/mathematical-models/promoreos/how-to-use/

 

[Chifbaw]

Weekly analysis and trade recommendations

Posted on February 24, 2013 by
Recommendations:

Medium: Short the USDJPY at 97.30, SL 97.70, targets 96.70, 96.00, 95.00.
Risky: Buy the EURUSD at 1.3060, SL 1.3020, targets 1.3130, 1.3250.
Risky: Short the GBPUSD at 1.5450, SL 1.5600, targets 1.5200, 1.4800, 1.4200.
Analysis:

Last week, the USDJPY continued to stagnate in the 92-94 range in a typical saturation pattern. The absence of a more sustained fall to the low 90x and below suggests the supply of buyers remains very deep. This week going short against the USDJPY is more risky and we don’t advise it anymore except if we reach levels above 97.00.

The EURUSD has fallen as we suggested to the 1.31x level. Our trade recommendation to buy at 1.318 has almost worked at a few pips close. The pair ended the week back to the level of 1.318. The downside movement does not seem to be over and trend line support has been broken. The 100-DMA comes in at 1.311 together with previous historical highs and this level represents a resistance area but we do not think it will hold. A key area for the EURUSD is around 1.306-1.307 which corresponds to the 61.8% retracement of the major impulse from 1.20 to 1.37 as well as the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the minor move from 1.26 to 1.37. In our view, this Fibonacci area offers a decent long opportunity.

On a side note, the British pound is witnessing a bearish acceleration. The contraction in volatility in the GBPUSD has now probably peaked (see very tight Bollinger bands) and a volatility spike might be starting. The anticipated rating downgrade of the UK has indeed occurred. This coupled with negative economic data and strong expectations of easing from the BOE suggest that the break to the downside of the horizontal resistance (1.52-1.53) is set to occur in the coming days/weeks. The downside potential is easily superior to 1000 pips, which is why it is worth looking for this trade. The difficulty with trades based on monthly charts is that stop losses need to be very large. A possible trade is to wait for a rebound towards 1.54/1.55 to enter short.

 

[Chifbaw]

Math models afternoon update

25th February 2013

BETA - Propareos levels (90% probabilities of price action reversal or saturation valid till 16:00 GMT):

• EURUSD: 1.3460-1.3475 on the upside, 1.3135-1.3150 on the downside.
• AUDUSD: 1.0340-1.0355 on the upside, 1.0250-1.0265 on the downside.
• USDJPY: 95.05-95.20 on the upside, 92.50-92.65 on the downside.
• GBPUSD: 1.5400-1.5415 on the upside, 1.5020-1.5035 on the downside.
• USDCAD: 1.0275-1.0290 on the upside, 1.0150-1.0165 on the downside.
• NZDUSD: 0.8470-0.8485 on the upside, 0.8310-0.8325 on the downside.
• EURJPY: 126.30-126.45 on the upside, 122.80-122.95 on the downside.
• EURGBP: 0.8885-0.8900 on the upside, 0.8600-0.8615 on the downside.
• USDCHF: 0.9350-0.9365 on the upside, 0.9195-0.9210 on the downside.
• AUDJPY: 97.60-97.75 on the upside, 95.45-95.60 on the downside.
• EURAUD: 1.2985-1.3000 on the upside, 1.2715-1.2730 on the downside.
• GBPJPY: 143.10-143.25 on the upside, 141.00-141.15 on the downside.

Warning! Propareos levels do not take into account fundamental developments. Their validity is reduced on days when the NFP is released and when Central Banks change their interest rate.

For guidance on how to use this information, please go to http://www.chifbaw.com/en/forex-analysis/mathematical-models/promoreos/how-to-use/

 

[Chifbaw]

Math models daily update

Comments ↓
26th of February 2013

BETA - Propareos levels (90% probabilities of price action reversal or saturation valid till 10:00 GMT):

• EURUSD: 1.3345-1.3360 on the upside, 1.2930-1.2945 on the downside.
• AUDUSD: 1.0355-1.0370 on the upside, 1.0220-1.0235 on the downside.
• USDJPY: 94.35-94.50 on the upside, 90.15-90.30 on the downside.
• GBPUSD: 1.5295-1.5310 on the upside, 1.5015-1.5030 on the downside.
• USDCAD: 1.0295-1.0310 on the upside, 1.0200-1.0215 on the downside.
• NZDUSD: 0.8455-0.8470 on the upside, 0.8275-0.8290 on the downside.
• EURJPY: 126.00-126.15 on the upside, 117.85-118.00 on the downside.
• EURGBP: 0.8785-0.8800 on the upside, 0.8465-0.8480 on the downside.
• USDCHF: 0.9365-0.9380 on the upside, 0.9220-0.9235 on the downside.
• AUDJPY: 97.50-97.65 on the upside, 92.90-93.05 on the downside.
• EURAUD: 1.2960-1.2975 on the upside, 1.2575-1.2590 on the downside.

Warning! Propareos levels do not take into account fundamental developments. Their validity is reduced on days when the NFP is released and when Central Banks change their interest rate.

Afternoon! models have been published and are available to view on our site:
http://www.chifbaw.com/en/forex-analysis/mathematical-models/daily-update/

 

[Chifbaw]

Math models daily update

27th of February 2013

BETA - Propareos levels (90% probabilities of price action reversal or saturation valid till 10:00 GMT):

• EURUSD: 1.3300-1.3315 on the upside, 1.2920-1.2935 on the downside.
• AUDUSD: 1.0315-1.0330 on the upside, 1.0160-1.0175 on the downside.
• USDJPY: 94.20-94.35 on the upside, 89.75-89.90 on the downside.
• GBPUSD: 1.5215-1.5230 on the upside, 1.4985-1.5000 on the downside.
• USDCAD: 1.0325-1.0340 on the upside, 1.0185-1.0200 on the downside.
• NZDUSD: 0.8425-0.8440 on the upside, 0.8105-0.8120 on the downside.
• EURJPY: 125.45-125.60 on the upside, 117.75-117.90 on the downside.
• EURGBP: 0.8805-0.8820 on the upside, 0.8465-0.8480 on the downside.
• USDCHF: 0.9395-0.9410 on the upside, 0.9250-0.9265 on the downside.
• AUDJPY: 97.15-97.30 on the upside, 92.00-92.15 on the downside.
• EURAUD: 1.2975-1.2990 on the upside, 1.2635-1.2550 on the downside.

Warning! Propareos levels do not take into account fundamental developments. Their validity is reduced on days when the NFP is released and when Central Banks change their interest rate.

Afternoon models have been published and are available to view on our site:
http://www.chifbaw.com/en/forex-analysis/mathematical-models/daily-update/

 

[Chifbaw]

Math models daily update

27th of February 2013

BETA - Propareos levels (90% probabilities of price action reversal or saturation valid till 10:00 GMT):

• EURUSD: 1.3250-1.3265 on the upside, 1.2955-1.2970 on the downside.
• AUDUSD: 1.0350-1.0365 on the upside, 1.0140-1.0155 on the downside.
• USDJPY: 93.40-93.55 on the upside, 90.85-91.00 on the downside.
• GBPUSD: 1.5240-1.5255 on the upside, 1.5085-1.5090 on the downside.
• USDCAD: 1.0305-1.0320 on the upside, 1.0175-1.0190 on the downside.
• NZDUSD: 0.8410-0.8425 on the upside, 0.8145-0.8160 on the downside.
• EURJPY: 122.90-123.05 on the upside, 119.00-119.15 on the downside.
• EURGBP: 0.8745 -0.8760 on the upside, 0.8570-0.8585 on the downside.
• USDCHF: 0.9365-0.9380 on the upside, 0.9235-0.9250 on the downside.
• AUDJPY: 96.50-96.65 on the upside, 91.70-91.85 on the downside.
• EURAUD: 1.2935-1.2950 on the upside, 1.2645-1.2660 on the downside.

Warning! Propareos levels do not take into account fundamental developments. Their validity is reduced on days when the NFP is released and when Central Banks change their interest rate.

Afternoon! models have been published and are available to view on our site:
http://www.chifbaw.com/en/forex-analysis/mathematical-models/daily-update/

 

[Chifbaw]

Math models daily update

1st of March 2013

BETA - Propareos levels (90% probabilities of price action reversal or saturation valid till 10:00 GMT):

• EURUSD: 1.3195-1.3210 on the upside, 1.2975-1.2990 on the downside.
• AUDUSD: 1.0360-1.0375 on the upside, 1.0160-1.0175 on the downside.
• USDJPY: 93.50-93.65 on the upside, 91.00-91.15 on the downside.
• GBPUSD: 1.5275-1.5290 on the upside, 1.5080-1.5095 on the downside.
• USDCAD: 1.0355-1.0370 on the upside, 1.0190-1.0210 on the downside.
• NZDUSD: 0.8355-0.8370 on the upside, 0.8170-0.8185 on the downside.
• EURJPY: 122.55-122.70 on the upside, 119.35-119.50 on the downside.
• EURGBP: 0.8735 -0.8750 on the upside, 0.8550-0.8565 on the downside.
• USDCHF: 0.9415-0.9430 on the upside, 0.9210-0.9225 on the downside.
• AUDJPY: 95.95-96.10 on the upside, 92.50-92.65 on the downside.
• EURAUD: 1.2930-1.2945 on the upside, 1.2640-1.2655 on the downside.

Warning! Propareos levels do not take into account fundamental developments. Their validity is reduced on days when the NFP is released and when Central Banks change their interest rate.

Afternoon! models have been published and are available to view on our site:
http://www.chifbaw.com/en/forex-analysis/mathematical-models/daily-update/

 

[Chifbaw]

Weekly analysis and trade recommendations

Posted on March 3, 2013 by — No Comments ↓
Weekly analysis and trade recommendations

Recommendations:

Medium: Buy the EURUSD at 1.2985, SL 1.2945, targets 1.3050, 1.310.
Risky: Buy the EURUSD at 1.3020, SL 1.2950, targets 1.3050, 1.310.
Risky: Short the GBPUSD at 1.5250, SL 1.5350, targets 1.50, 1.48, 1.43.
Analysis:

Our risky trade recommendation of last week in the EURUSD currency failed at a few pips close. The EURUSD went as low as 1.296 before it ended the week just a bit above 1.30. This bearishness on the EURUSD was mostly due to the negative sentiment generated by the Italian elections. It is unclear yet if these elections will have an impact on the fundamentals, but tail risks are being awakened. For now the bond market does not show any panic. As shown on the daily chart of EURUSD, the 150 day moving average has played a key role for this currency pair during the last year or so. The daily chart shows several spots were the 150 DMA served as a resistance or a support, the last being on Friday. The 150 DMA also served as a resistance during the spike in October 2011 (not shown on the chart). The 4H chart also suggests that are rather close to the lower edge of its down trending channel. All of this makes us think that the EURUSD is now psychologically oversold and will need to correct a bit. We expect the week to start with a rebound of EURUSD to at least 1.31x, possibly up to as high as 1.33x if something positive comes out of Italy. However, the long term view on this currency pair is now fuzzy. And should we fall below the 150 DMA, then 1.25 could easily be in range.

Last week, the USDJPY continued to stagnate in the 92-94 range in a typical saturation pattern. The newly formed doji on the weekly chart increases the uncertainty, and suggests we might stay in the 91-95 for some time to come. This means one can trade the edges of this range, but we do not recommend.

The GBPUSD has collapsed as we announced and there is still a lot of downside available (down to 1.42). One possible trade idea is to look for the
“buyer remorse”: entering short on a retest of the horizontal support line around 1.52-1.53.

EURUSD Daily Chart

EURUSD 4H chart

GBPUSD Weekly chart

 

[Chifbaw]

Math models daily update

4th March 2013

BETA - Propareos levels (90% probabilities of price action reversal or saturation valid till 10:00 GMT):

• EURUSD: 1.3140-1.3155 on the upside, 1.2915-1.2930 on the downside.
• AUDUSD: 1.0240-1.0255 on the upside, 1.055-1.0070 on the downside.
• USDJPY: 94.80-94.95 on the upside, 92.40-92.55 on the downside.
• GBPUSD: 1.5270-1.5285 on the upside, 1.4930-1.4945 on the downside.
• USDCAD: 1.0370-1.0385 on the upside, 1.0235-1.0250 on the downside.
• NZDUSD: 0.8315-0.8330 on the upside, 0.8145-0.8160 on the downside.
• EURJPY: 122.65-122.80 on the upside, 120.05-120.20 on the downside.
• EURGBP: 0.8715 -0.8730 on the upside, 0.8565-0.8580 on the downside.
• USDCHF: 0.9525-0.9540 on the upside, 0.9250-0.9265 on the downside.
• AUDJPY: 95.85-96.00 on the upside, 93.65-93.80 on the downside.
• EURAUD: 1.2975-1.2990 on the upside, 1.2665-1.2680 on the downside.

Warning! Propareos levels do not take into account fundamental developments. Their validity is reduced on days when the NFP is released and when Central Banks change their interest rate.

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