Currency Pairs Analysis Today.

[forum forex]

May-11, 2022, Daily Currency market technical analysis and forecast, by forex forum.​

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All attention will now be focused on inflation data in the US, on which the further direction of the pair depends. In the event of a decrease in price pressure, as economists expect, the demand for risky assets will increase, which will lead to an upward movement of EUR/USD and a re-growth in the area of 1.0571. If the situation turns out to be not as favorable as many expect, the pressure on the euro will return, because the US dollar will continue to strengthen its position with increased price pressure, which will force the Federal Reserve System to act more aggressively - even an increase in interest rates by 0.75% immediately in June this year is not excluded.

A breakout and a top-down test of 1.0571 form a new signal for entering long positions, strengthening buyers, and opening up the opportunity for further growth of EUR/USD to the area of 1.0638, where I recommend fixing the profits. A more distant target will be the 1.0691 area. In the event of a decline in EUR/USD and the absence of buyers at 1.0519, the optimal scenario for buying will be a false breakdown near this year's low of 1.0473.

I advise you to open long positions on the euro immediately for a rebound only from 1.0426, or even lower - around 1.0394 with the aim of an upward correction of 30-35 points inside the day.

On the other hand, Economists at Commerzbank are seeing depreciation pressure for the Chinese yuan over the coming year. They forecast USD/CNY at 6.70 and 6.80 by the year-end of 2022 and 2023 respectively.

A weakening bias for CNY​

“A strong dollar due to policy tightening is likely to the main theme in the coming years, while China has much smaller room to maneuver which implies a downside risk for the Chinese currency.”

USD/CAD KEY TECHNICAL LEVELS

Moreover, Looking at USD/CAD, its no secret that the US dollar has been running hot, buoyed by the initial safe-haven appeal of the Ukraine invasion, now being supported by an aggressive rate hiking cycle by the Federal Reserve Bank. Earlier today we have seen what can be described as the market front-running a potentially lower inflation data print as USD/CAD reversed off the topside of the zone of resistance at 1.3030.

Resistance currently lies at 1.3030 but could move to 1.2960 if we witness a move lower in USD/CAD after the inflation print.

The weekly USD/CAD chart underscores the significance of the zone of resistance (blue rectangle) as it coincides with prior resistance of 1.2960 and the 38.2% Fib level of the March 2020 major move lower.

USD/JPY Technical analysis​

Elsewhere, USDJPY move back above its 200 and 100 hour moving averages The USDJPY has moved higher on the back of the dollar buying after the CPI data showed higher than expected inflation last month. Technically, the price moved back above its 200 hour moving average at 130.17. The price also extended back above its 100 hour moving average at 130.421. That 100 hour moving average is being breached to the downside as I type. Technically, that neutralizes the bias as the price now trades below the 100 but above the 200 hour moving average.

The high price today extended to 130.806 which was a swing high going back to last Friday's trade. That was also the high for the trading week. Sellers leaned against that level on the 1st test. It would take a move above that level to increase the bullish bias going forward.

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[forum forex]

May-17, 2022, Currency Market Daily Analysis and Forecast, by forex forum.​

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The market mood in the New York session remains positive, carrying on the mood from the Asian and European sessions. US equities are recording gains between 1% and 2.67%.

EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook​

On Tuesday, the EUR/JPY surged above the 50-day moving average and the head-and-shoulders neckline in the 134.95-135.25/35 area, threatening to invalidate the chart pattern. In the near term, the bias, which shifted to neutral-upwards, as of writing is upwards.

With that said, the EUR/JPY’s first resistance would be 137.00. Break above would expose 138.00, followed by May 9 swing high at 138.32. On the flip side, the EUR/JPY first support would be 136.00. A breach of the latter, the next support would be the head-and-shoulders neckline around 135.25-35, followed by April’s 27 daily low at 134.77.

On the other hand, The dollar fell for a third straight day on Tuesday, pulling back from a two-decade high against a basket of major peers, as an uptick in investors' appetite for riskier bets diminished the U.S. currency's appeal.

Upbeat earnings views from Home Depot (NYSE:HD) and United Airlines along with optimism around the easing of China's crackdown on tech and COVID-19, helped to lift risk sentiment.

The U.S. Dollar Currency Index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, was down 0.7% at 103.41, its lowest since May 6. The index hit a two-decade high last week supported by a hawkish Federal Reserve and worries over the global economic fallout from the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

GBP/USD

Elsewhere, The British Pound soared on Tuesday, buoyed by broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, but more importantly, strong UK economic data. In late trading during the New York session, GBP/USD was up 1.3% to 1.2482, posting its largest single day rally since October 2020.

Earlier today, UK employment figures showed that the country added 83,000 workers in February, beating expectations for a net increase of 5,000 jobs handsomely. With this result, the unemployment rate fell 3.8% to 3.7%, hitting its lowest level in nearly half a century.

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD rebounded from 1.2250, the 2022 low, rising above 1.23. The bullish crossover on the MACD is keeping buyers hopeful of more upside.

Bulls will look to retake 1.2410, the April 28 low, before 1.25, the 20 SMA, and then 1.2635, the May high.

Failure to retake resistance at 1.2410 could see the price rebound lower, back below 1.23. A fall below 1.2155 is needed to create a lower low.

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[forum forex]

May-18, 2022, Daily Currency Trading technical analysis and market forecast, by forex forum.​

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GBP/USD jumped in excess of 1.3% on Tuesday, its best performance in nearly 18-months after the UK Jobs Report showed that the labor market remains in rude health. The unemployment rate fell to 3.7%, its lowest level in 50-years, while average earnings including bonuses rose by 7% in March as employers paid more to keep existing staff.

Retail trader data show 69.52% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.28 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 12.59% lower than yesterday and 19.96% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 40.21% higher than yesterday and 50.83% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBP/USD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

Moreover, The pound fell against the dollar on Wednesday after data showed British inflation rising to 9%, the highest level in 40 years.

At 0846 GMT, sterling was down 0.9% against the U.S. dollar at $1.23820.

The drop reverses most of the gains made on Tuesday when the pound touched its highest level since May 5.

Strong labour market data had boosted expectations that the Bank of England would have to further increase interest rates, but the latest inflation numbers are fuelling fears that the threat of recession may temper how far the central bank can go.

"Yesterday it looked like with wage growth rising and unemployment so low it meant that the bank had more room for manoeuvre," said Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown

EUR/USD​

On the other hand, The Euro US Dollar exchange rate began the last seven days on a downward trend after German inflation figures came in well below forecast. A widening of the Eurozone trade deficit on Monday may have also contributed to the fall.

The pair’s recovery was aided by a surprisingly hawkish stance from the European Central Bank (ECB). A speech from ECB President Christine Lagarde signalled that a summer 2022 rate hike was likely. Strong GDP growth figures for the Eurozone on Tuesday may also have helped to lift the EUR/USD pair.

Moreover, The European currency is strengthening against the US dollar today. Yesterday preliminary eurozone GDP data for the first quarter was released, exceeding market expectations. The European economy grew by 0.3% in quarterly terms instead of 0.2% and by 5.1% in annual terms instead of the expected 5.0%.

Overall, the European economy showed resilience even despite the negative impact of rising inflation and the Russia-Ukraine crisis, in particular supply chain disruptions and declining business confidence. Also note today’s comments from European Central Bank official Klaas Nota, who said that the regulator may raise interest rates by 50 basis points at once at its July meeting.

In general, the number of supporters of monetary policy tightening within the European regulator continues to grow.

Source: https://www.forum.forex/threads/for...lysis-and-daily-forecast.874/page-5#post-6944

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[forum forex]

May-23, 2022, Daily forex trading analysis and currency market forecast, by forex forum.​

The USD/JPY edges lower and records minimal losses of 0.01% in the North American session, courtesy of a positive mood and a weaker greenback. At the time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at 127.84.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The USD/JPY remains neutral-upward biased from a daily chart perspective, albeit approaching April’s 26 swing lows at around 126.94, was unable to break support. Nevertheless, the pair could shift its bias to neutral if USD/JPY bulls fail to break the 20-DMA at 129.23, exposing the major to selling pressure.

The USD/JPY 1-hour chart shows that the pair is trapped between the 50 and 100-hour simple moving averages (SMAs) at 127.98 and 128.19, respectively, but it is upwards. Why? The 20-hour SMA resides below the exchange rate, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shifted bullish above the 50-midline. Therefore, the USD/JPY bias is upwards.

USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: DXY OUTLOOK IN THE DAYS AHEAD​

On the other hand, The US Dollar Index (DXY) is continuing its recent run of weakness as it pulls back sharply from recent highs. The extremes in bullish sentiment suggested the dollar needed to cool off, and so the recent slide isn’t surprising.

The question is, is whether the USD can reassert its bullish ways quickly, or if it will need some time to digest the run before continuing higher. It’s also possible we are seeing a larger reversal, but at this time that appears to have a lower probability than an eventual trend continuation.

In any event, the DXY is trading around its first level of support via a swing low created on May 5 at 102.35. This is below the trend-line extending higher from the late March low, but even though the trend-line has been broken it doesn’t mean we will necessarily see further weakness.


USD/CAD

Elsewhere, The USDCAD is lower on the day with the price opening at its high and trading down to its low in the North American session. The last 13 or so hours have seen the price trade up and down with a high near 1.2807 and a low at 1.27659.

On the downside, the pair stalled near a lower downward sloping trend line on the hourly chart, AND the 50% midpoint of the move up from the April 21 low. Those levels come in near 1.27668. On the topside, the 100 hour MA is the key resistance today and going forward. That MA comes in at 1.28197.

 

[forum forex]

May-24, 2022, Daily Currency trading technical and fundamental analysis, by forex forum.​

The Russian rouble strengthened to levels not seen since March 2018 against the dollar on Tuesday, boosted by export-focused companies selling foreign currency to pay taxes and shrugging off a slight easing of capital controls.

The rouble has firmed about 30% against the dollar this year despite a full-scale economic crisis in Russia, making it the world's .

The rouble is steered by capital controls imposed in late February to shield Russia's financial sector after Moscow's decision to send tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine prompted unprecedented Western sanctions.

At 1110 GMT, the rouble was 2.5% stronger against the dollar at 56.36, hovering around this level for the first time in more than four years.

Against the euro, the rouble gained 3% to 58.24, its strongest in seven years.

EUR/GBP​

On the other hand, EUR/GBP: Retail trader data shows 49.92% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.00 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since May 16 when EUR/GBP traded near 0.85, price has moved 1.33% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 12.30% lower than yesterday and 8.89% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 17.92% higher than yesterday and 31.60% higher from last week.

Moreover, The Pound (GBP) is tumbling against its rivals today after poor UK PMI figures this morning added to fears of a 2022 recession in the UK. The reading of the UK’s services PMI fell to 51.8 versus forecasts of 57 as the country’s cost-of-living crisis squeezes household spending.

Samiel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said:

‘The collapse in the composite PMI in May is the clearest sign yet that demand is faltering in response to the intense squeeze on households’ real disposable incomes.’

Analysts have also highlighted the likelihood that soaring inflation is likely to prompt even worse figures in the coming months.

Concerns that the data could limit further rate hikes from the Bank of England’s (BoE) are also likely weighing on GBP today. Financial markets do still expect the central bank to raise rates to at least 2% by year’s end, however.

At time of writing the GBP/USD exchange rate is at around $1.2507, which is down roughly -0.5% from this morning’s opening figures.

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[forum forex]

May-25, 2022, Daily forex trading analysis and currency exchange forecast, by forex forum.​

EUR/USD corrects lower following a failed attempt to extend the daily range further north of the 1.0750 zone, sparking a subsequent correction of nearly one big figure to the vicinity of 1.0640.

The renewed strength in the dollar sponsored the move lower in spot, which it has also met some help from lower yields on both sides of the ocean.

No news from earlier comments from ECB-speakers, as practically all of them joined the summer rate hike narrative in place in the last couple of weeks.

In the euro calendar, earlier results saw the German GDP Growth Rate expand 3.8% YoY in Q1 and the Consumer Confidence tracked by GfK improve marginally to -26 for the month of June. In France, the Consumer Confidence came in short of expectations in May at 86 (from April’s 87).

Elsewhere, GBP/USD stalls below $1.26​

The weakening dollar has given GBP/USD space to bounce, and since mid-month the pair has been able to move back towards the early May highs at $1.26. But a weaker set of purchasing manager index (PMIs) yesterday meant that the pound ran into some selling pressure, and as a result, the pair has been unable to maintain upward progress, and is now at risk of turning lower.

Fresh declines would bring the May low back into view, down towards $1.22 and potentially lower, with $1.208 the next big level to watch.

JPY/USD

On the other hand, Turning to the economic calendar, the focus will be on April U.S. PCE scheduled for Friday. U.S. markets are closed next Monday for the Memorial Day holiday and traders are starting to leave their desks for the long weekend, so liquidity conditions could deteriorate further in the coming days. Thin liquidity could amplify price volatility if key data surprises relative to expectations. Check out the forum.forex Economical calendar to see what traders expect.

In terms of technical analysis, USD/JPY has bounced off support in the 126.50 zone and seems to be heading towards trendline resistance near 127.40. If price manages to clear this hurdle, bulls could launch an attack on 128.40, the upper boundary of a short-term descending channel. On further strength, the focus shifts higher to 129.75. On the flip side, if sellers return and spark a bearish reversal, initial support spans from 126.50/126.15. If this area is breached on the downside, USD/JPY could be on its way towards the psychological 125.00 level.

US dollar

The U.S. dollar snapped a two-day losing streak on Wednesday ahead of the release of the minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's May meeting, which investors will parse for clues about further interest rate hikes.

The minutes are due at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT). U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has promised to continue hiking rates until there is clear and convincing evidence that inflation is under control.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of peer currencies, was up 0.491% at 102.25, at 10:15 a.m. (1415 GMT).

The dollar had fallen to a one-month low on Tuesday after European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde flagged an end to negative interest rates in the euro zone in the third quarter.

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[forum forex]

May-26, 2022, Daily Currency market forecast and forex market analysis, By forex forum.​

EUR/USD Rises Amid Improved Market Confidence.

On the euro side of the equation, the ECB is increasingly turning against several months ago. The bank now vouches for a policy acceleration and exits from negative interest rates by the end of the third quarter. This pivot could soon open the door to a 50 bps boost and increase support for European currencies, or at least prevent more depreciation. The stars appear to be ready for the EUR/USD recovery going forward in the summer.

Technical analysis EUR/USD

EUR/USD is approaching its best level since late April. After rising in the past few weeks. with the latest advances Both looked ready to test cluster resistance again. It covers from 1.0750 to 1.0800 if the bull can break through this ceiling to an uptrend. Buying interest may accelerate This paves the way for a move towards 1.0940. Conversely, if sellers recover and prices drop. Initial support will be at 1.0642, followed by 1.0470.

Rouble Analysis​

On the other hand, The Russian rouble slumped around 10% against the dollar in volatile trade to a two-week low on Thursday as the central bank cut interest rates to 11% and suggested more cuts would follow as inflation risks subside.

The central bank cut its key rate by 300 basis points for the third time in a row, softening the cost of borrowing again after an emergency rate hike to 20% in late February days after Russia sent troops into Ukraine.

At a banking conference in Moscow, Governor Elvira Nabiullina said the central bank had prevented an inflation spiral and would lower its 2022 inflation forecast from 18-23%, reiterating the bank's signal that it may cut rates further at its next meeting on June 10.

By 1420 GMT, the rouble was around 10% weaker against the dollar at 65.70 , its weakest since May 12 and tumbling from 55.80, its strongest level since February 2018 which it hit on Wednesday.

It had lost 14% to trade at 69.50 versus the euro, also a two-week low, having touched a seven-year high of 57.10 in the previous session.


USD/JPY

Elsewhere, The Japanese Yen has finally been finding some footing against the US Dollar. Over the past two weeks, USD/JPY declined by over 2 percent. That was the worst 2-week period since June 2020. This has been in stark contrast with general Yen weakness going back all the way to the beginning of 2021. Is this near-term noise, or is more smooth sailing ahead for the Japanese currency?

Against the US Dollar, it is a different fundamental story. Both the US Dollar and Japanese Yen exhibit anti-risk dynamics. The more important focus for USD/JPY is thus on relative monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. The latter has not been doing much in terms of shifting its dovish view, but the markets are starting to reprice what the former could do in the future.

USD/JPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

With that in mind, traders ought to treat USD/JPY’s recent breakout with a grain of salt. The pair just barely closed under the April 27th low at 126.952. Moreover, the 50-day Simple Moving Average remains in play and can reorient the pair to the upside. Such an outcome would place the focus on 131.256 resistance. Otherwise, confirming a breakout under the SMA could spell further trouble for USD/JPY. That would place the focus on the former 125.108 – 123.862 resistance zone.

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[forum forex]

May-30, 2022, Daily Currency trading analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​

The US dollar is trading sideways today, not helped by the Memorial Day holiday in the US, leaving GBP/USD listless in early turnover. With US markets closed, and with no UK economic data on the slate, today’s session will likely see little volatility or price action.

The UK is also nearing a four-day weekend with the Queen’s Platinum Celebrations commencing this Thursday, leaving the pair vulnerable to US dollar drivers at the end of the week, especially Friday’s US non-farm payroll report.

GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART​

Retail trader data show 67.44% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.07 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 1.13% higher than yesterday and 7.83% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.04% higher than yesterday and 19.77% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBP/USD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

EUR/USD struggles around the 55-day simple moving average.

On the other hand, EUR/USD’s near 4% rally from its mid-May $1.035 low has so far taken it to a one-month high at $1.077 as US core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price inflation continues to slow down. The cross seems to be struggling around the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.077 as US markets are shut due to Memorial Day with quiet trading expected to be seen in currency markets today.

EUR/GBP continues to oscillate around the £0.85 mark

Moreover, EUR/GBP faltered at £0.8587, last week, marginally below the £0.8618 mid-May peak, before it rapidly came off following record low German GfK consumer confidence data. Last week’s low at £0.848 held throughout the week, though, with the cross heading back up again today, following a long Ascension Day holiday weekend in Catholic Europe.

The 16 May high at £0.8534 is back in the picture, a rise above which would lead to the £0.8587 to £0.8618 resistance area being revisited.

USD/JPY

Elsewhere, The USD/JPY pair gained some positive traction on Monday and held on to its modest intraday gains through the first half of the European session. The pair was last seen trading around the 127.25-127.30 area, up 0.15% for the day.

Investors turned optimistic amid hopes that the easing of COVID-19 restrictions in China would boost the global economy, which was evident from the ongoing risk-on rally in the equity markets. This, in turn, undermined demand for the safe-haven Japanese yen and acted as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair, though the prevalent US dollar selling bias kept a lid on any meaningful gains.

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[forum forex]

May-31, 2022, Daily currency trading analysis and forex trading profitable strategy explain, by forex forum.​

The U.S. dollar rose across the board on Tuesday as Treasury yields climbed and worries over a further acceleration in global inflation kept investors' risk appetite at bay.

The dollar was supported by demand for havens. U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday as soaring oil prices and hawkish comments from a Federal Reserve official spooked investors.

The U.S. Dollar Currency Index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, was up 0.5% at 101.92, on pace for its best one-day gain in nearly two weeks. The dollar index, up about 6.6% for the year, is down 1.2% for May, on pace for its worst monthly loss in a year.

Inflation in the 19 countries sharing the euro accelerated to 8.1% in May from 7.4% in April, beating expectations for 7.7% as price growth continued to broaden, indicating that it is no longer just energy pulling up the headline figure.

Against the dollar, the euro fell 0.6% to a 5-day low.

USD/CAD

On the other hand, The USD/CAD broke below 1.2650 and fell to 1.2628, reaching a fresh monthly low. The pair resumed the downside despite the Canadian GDP reading coming below expectations and ahead of Wednesday’s Bank of Canada meeting.

The USD/CAD is falling despite the recovery of the US dollar. The DXY is having the best day in almost two weeks as US yields move higher. A deterioration in market sentiment is also helping the greenback. The Dow Joines is falling by 0.78% and the Nasdaq drops by 0.71%.

If USD/CAD rises back above 1.2650 the loonie will likely lose momentum favoring a return to the 1.2685/1.2650 range. Below the daily low, attention would turn to 1.2600. Ahead of the BoC meeting, volatility is set to remain elevated.

EURO AREA INFLATION AT FRESH RECORD HIGH​

Euro Area inflation rose to 8.1% in May, up from 7.5% and above expectations of 7.7%. The core figure also printed above expectations at 3.8% vs 3.5% and thus reaffirms the case for ECB tightening in Q3. Although, the question for the ECB is whether the bank will go ahead with 25 or 50bps in July. Despite money markets pricing in 34bps worth of tightening in July, a 25bps hike remains the base case for me. Alongside this, slower growth remains the risk going forward, which in turn, still supports the bias to fade dips in the US Dollar.

The current recovery in the Euro is around 4% from its recent lows, compared to prior recoveries of 3.3-3.5% in January and March, which signals to me that the current bounce back maybe a bit long in the tooth. While last week’s comments by Fed’s Bostic regarding a potential pause in tightening as soon as September likely exacerbated the USD weakness, the Fed will have little desire to pivot away from its aggressive tightening outlook given inflation remains very sticky at extremely elevated levels.

NZD/USD

Elsewhere, The NZDUSD moved to a new high going back to May 5 in the Asian session. The high price reached 0.65634. That was just short of the May 5 high at 0.65673 (which is also the high for the month of May).

The inability to extend above the May high turned buyers into sellers. The price rotated back to the downside, and after breaking below the swing high from May 25 at 0.65145 , the upward sloping trend line and the rising 100 hour moving average, the sellers took back control and push the price down to a new session low at 0.6482.

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[forum forex]

June-01, 2022, Daily latest Currency trading analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​

The EUR/USD broke to the downside after trading for hours in a range between 1.0730-1.0700, dropping precipitously to 1.0650, and hitting its lowest level since May 25. The pair remains under pressure as the US dollar benefits from higher US yields and safe-haven flows due to increased risk aversion.

From a technical perspective, the area between 1.0640/50 provides strong support; below that, the next target stands at 1.0605. If EUR/USD manages to hold above 1.0650, the euro could rebound initially to 1.0700. Above that the next resistance is seen at 1.0735.

US Dollar

On the other hand, The US Dollar just completed its first bearish monthly bar of 2022 trade. The early-portion of the month saw bulls drive up to another fresh high, this time setting a fresh 19-year-high in the currency. But that strength dissipated in the second-half of the month as stocks started to show signs of pulling back.

On a shorter-term basis, support is playing-in from a prior spot of resistance. This plots around a trendline projection from a bullish channel that guided the currency for the better part of a year until the mid-April breakout. This support came into play on Monday and that led to a bounce yesterday which has so far continued through today.

We’re at near-term resistance right now, plotted at 102.35 which is taken from a prior swing-low. Shorter-term support potential remains at both 102.04 and 101.80.

USD/CAD​

Elsewhere, The BoC lifted rates by 0.50%, using as backdrop high global inflation, driven by elevated energy prices, courtesy of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, China’s Covid-19 related lockdowns, and ongoing supply disruptions. The BoC emphasized that the war “increased uncertainty and put further upward pressure on energy and agricultural commodities prices.”

USD/CAD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The USD/CAD remains downward pressured, but USD/CAD buyers are lifting the pair above the 200-day moving average (DMA), which lies at 1.2659. Nevertheless, it’s worth noting that although they lift the major upwards, aiming towards 1.2700, solid ceiling levels lie ahead around 1.2700.

If the scenario of the USD/CAD reaching 1.2700 is about to play out, the USD/CAD’s first resistance would be the 100-DMA at 1.2695. Break above would send the pair towards the 50-DMA at 1.2708, followed by the May 27 high at 1.2783. On the other hand, the USD/CAD first support would be the 200-DMA. A breach of the latter would expose the Bollinger bottom band at 1.2607.


Moreover, GBP/CAD losses extended to new 2022 lows as the Loonie held a gain of more than one percent gain over the U.S. Dollar for the week to Wednesday.

The decision came with various measures of inflation in Canada ranging from between 3.2% and 6.8% and marks an almost complete withdrawal of the large interest rate cuts that were announced by the BoC during the earliest days of the coronavirus crisis when the cash rate was chopped from 1.75%.

AUD/USD​

The AUDUSD had a volatile up and down month in May, but rebounded into positive territory by the close of the month yesterday.

The 100 day MA loomed above and after a dip in the Asian session today, the price moved higher to test that MA in the early US session. The 100 day MA comes in at 0.72286. The high price today reached 0.7230 just above that level by 1.4 basis points.. Sellers came in and pushed the price back to the downside.

The better US data, led to higher rates, lower stocks and the a higher USD. The AUDUSD fell lower in response, but found support buyers against the lower 100 hour MA at 0.71625. The low price reached 0.71645. The current price is trading at 0.71675.


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[forum forex]

June-02, 2022, Daily currency trading analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​

The U.S. dollar eased across the board on Thursday, ceding some of the ground gained in recent sessions as firmer risk sentiment prompted investors to reach for higher-yielding currencies.

The U.S. dollar currency index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, was 0.4% lower at 102.11, on pace to snap a two-day streak of gains.

The dollar found little support from data showing U.S. private payrolls increased far less than expected in May, which would suggest demand for labor was starting to slow amid higher interest rates and tightening financial conditions, though job openings remain extremely high.

EUR/USD​

EUR/USD rebounded on Thursday, though was unable to break back above the 1.0700 level or its 50-Day Moving Average just above it at 1.0723 and has since pulled back to change hands just below 1.0700. The pair is nonetheless still trading with on-the-day gains of about 0.5%, as the US dollar eases across the board amid a pullback from earlier weekly highs in US yields.

But there is a risk that Friday’s US jobs report rekindles some USD strength, if it shows US wage growth picking up once again. Labour market developments that raise the risks of high US inflation becoming embedded (such as rapid wage growth) will encourage the Fed to remove their foot from the monetary accelerator and onto the break at a faster pace. In this scenario, the EUR/USD bears will be eyeing a drop back towards the 21DMA around 1.0600.

GBP/USD

Elsewhere, GBP/USD called back some of yesterday’s downside in the Asian and European sessions after the dollar took its foot off the pedal as U.S. Treasury yields eased.

Currently, the UK economy is under pressure from rampant inflation and slowing manufacturing performance. Despite the uptick in yesterdays housing prices, it is likely that this will inevitably slow as the cost of living weighs on consumers. On the other hand, the U.S. economy is flexing its muscle and reinforcing its robustness in the current global climate via improved manufacturing data.

After finding support at the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.2494, GBP/USD price action now flirts with the 20-day EMA (purple). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads at the 50 level which is indicative of indecision in terms of upside or downside bias. My forecast remains toward the downside from a fundamental perspective (current) which leads to believe that support at 1.2400 and beyond are around the corner.

USD/CAD​

On the other hand, The USDCAD moved down to retest the low from yesterday at 1.26025. The low price reached 1.26033 and has bounced to 1.2616 currently. Looking at the hourly chart, the low price from Tuesday's trade stalled near 1.2626. Getting above that level would give the short-term buyers some comfort.

The sideways 200 day moving average at 1.26595 would be the next target followed by the falling 100 hour moving average 1.2670. The high price today at 1.2686 tested the high price from Tuesday near the same level.

XAU/USD

Spot gold (XAU/USD) prices rallied more than 1.0% on Thursday from the low $1840s per troy ounce to the upper $1860s and are currently probing late May highs just under $1870. An upside break would open the door, technically speaking to a run higher towards the 50-Day Moving Average, which is close to the $1900 level.

Thursday’s gains come as US yields and the US dollar back off from weekly highs, giving precious metals markets some tailwinds, and despite mixed tier two US labour market data (Q1 Unit Labour Cost was revised higher, May ADP Employment Change missed expectations and weekly jobless claims was decent). But any bullish breakout will likely have to wait until after Friday’s official US jobs report.

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[forum forex]

June-03, 2022, Daily currency market technical analysis and forecast, by forex forum.​

The EUR/USD failed to recover the 1.0750 zone and pulled back during Friday’s American session toward the 1.0700 area. It is about to end at the same level it had a week ago after the US dollar recovered strength following NFP and the ISM Service PMI.

Technical outlook

“The EUR/USD pair is trading just below the 50% retracement of its latest slide, measured between 1.1186 and 1.0348 at 1.0770. The weekly chart shows that the pair keeps developing well below all of its moving averages, with the 20 SMA maintaining its bearish slope below the longer ones,” explained Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analysts at FXStreet. She noted the bullish potential remains limited, “although the trend may gather momentum if the pair breaks above the 61.8% retracement at 1.0855. Steady gains above the latter could mean an extension towards the critical 1.1000 figure.”

GBP/USD​

On the other hand, At the Bank of England’s last meeting on the 4th of May, members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 6-3 in favor of a 25 basis point hike with the other 3 in favor of a 50 bps hike. Since then, annual CPI inflation jumped from 7% in March to 9% in April as the harsh consequences of the war in Ukraine exacerbate existing supply chain issues. Russian oil accounts for around 8% of the UK’s oil imports and the island kingdom is committed to phasing this out by the end of the year.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The GBP/USD is still downward biased, as reflected by the daily chart. The daily moving averages (DMAs) above the exchange rate, alongside RSI’s readings turning bearish and with a downslope, opens the door for further losses. Nevertheless, if the GBP/USD is about to fall further, a break below the June 1 low at 1.2458 is required. Once cleared, the GBP/USD’s next support would be the May 17 daily low at 1.2313, followed by the YTD low at 1.2155.

USD/CAD​

Elsewhere, The USD/CAD edges up during the New York session, though earlier seesawed between minimal gains/losses of 0.01-0.03%, but remains above the weekly low of 1.2551, amidst investors’ risk-off mood. At 1.2572, the USD/CAD remains steady after the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) 50 bps rate hike earlier in the week.

USD/CAD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

From the daily chart perspective, the USD/CAD remains downward biased, but the RSI’s reading at 36.65, moving slightly up, suggests a correction might occur in the near term. Nevertheless, if the USD/CAD continues downwards and breaks below April’s 21 low at 1.2458, then a retest of the YTD lows at 1.2402 is on the cards.

Otherwise, the USD/CAD might head upwards to test the 1.2600. Failure of a daily close above the figure would keep the major in the 1.2550-1.2600 range.

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[forum forex]

June-06, 2022, Daily Currency trading analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​

The EUR/GBP slashes Friday’s gains on Monday and aims towards the 0.8500 mark after reaching a daily high near 0.8590s, though retracing on a buoyant market mood as global equities record gains. At the time of writing, the EUR/GBP is trading at 0.8530, losing 0.47%.

EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The EUR/GBP remains upward biased, despite Monday’s retracement. However, the cross-currency would face solid resistance at around 0.8600, a level last traded on May 12, which sparked a correction towards highs of 0.8390s, before resuming the uptrend towards 0.8590s. EUR/GBP traders need to be aware that volatility shrank, and the EUR/GBP formed a bullish flag, which would open the door for further gains. Nevertheless, the cross would consolidate in the 0.8500-0.8600 area before aiming toward fresh YTD highs above 0.8700.

EUR/USD

On the other hand, In the major of EUR/USD, the pair still holds some bullish potential, largely rooted from last week’s bounce of support at prior resistance. This is taken from a zone running from 1.0593-1.0638 and that area caught a bounce on Wednesday that held into the end of the week. That bounce found lower-high resistance in the same zone that caught the prior high, plotted from around 1.0767-1.0787.

While this could carry some bullish potential, there may be more amenable areas for that elsewhere which I’ll look at after our next chart. But, on this setup, the area of focus is that support zone running from 1.0593-1.0638. If sellers can punch through that, then the door re-opens for bearish scenarios in the pair, looking for a return to the 1.0500 psychological level.

US Dollar​

The dollar advanced modestly on Monday as a boost in risk appetite sent U.S. equities higher and kept gains on the safe haven in check ahead of a key reading on inflation later in the week.

After touching a near twenty-year high of 105.01 on May 13, the dollar has eased back to around the 102 level, although Friday's strong payrolls report helped the dollar notch its first weekly gain in three.

The dollar index rose 0.098% at 102.190, with the euro down 0.12% to $1.0706 ahead of a European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting later this week.

The Japanese yen weakened 0.35% versus the greenback at 131.32 per dollar, while Sterling was last trading at $1.2547, up 0.47% on the day.


GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair broke resistance at 1.2491 which turned into strong support yesterday. This level coincides with 23.6% of Fibonacci retracement which is expected to act as major support today.

Equally important, the RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward, while the moving average (100) is headed to the upside. Accordingly, the bullish outlook remains the same as long as the EMA 100 is pointing to the uptrend.

This suggests that the pair will probably go above the daily pivot point (1.2524) in the coming hours. The GBP/USD pair will demonstrate strength following a breakout of the high at 1.2524.

USD/CAD​

Elsewhere, USDCAD is wanting again towards unchanged on the day

The USDCAD has transfer again towards unchanged on the day. The value on Friday closed at 1.25854. The excessive worth simply reached 1.25848. The present worth is buying and selling at 1.25765.

The pair initially moved to the draw back, however discovered help close to an previous trendline after reaching a brand new low going again to April 21. The North American session has seen a bounce to the upside of the final 3-4 hours. The excessive worth for the day was within the Asian session at a pleasant spherical variety of 1.2600.

Getting again into constructive territory for the day and above the 1.2600 stage would have merchants wanting towards the falling 100 hour shifting common 1.26104. Recall from final Thursday, the value moved as much as check that shifting common line solely to search out sellers close to the extent and a rotation again to the draw back. Because of this, the shifting common’s significance has elevated. Getting above it could be a step within the bullish path.

Thank You

 

[forum forex]

June-7, 2022, Daily currency trading analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​

The EUR/USD instrument fell by 40 basis points on Tuesday. The news background of today was simply absent, so the market moved the instrument only based on wave markup. And the wave marking is now almost unambiguous - it assumes a further decrease in the instrument by another 50-100 basis points. Already on Wednesday and Thursday, the news background for the instrument will be much stronger, but this does not mean that demand for the European currency will begin to grow again.

American inflation may cause a decline in the European currency and the construction of the corrective wave b will be completed. And on Thursday, the ECB should announce the completion of the APP program or its readiness to raise the interest rate at the next meetings, then the demand for the European currency will already grow. Thus, the wave analysis and the news background still look very harmonious with each other.

GBP/USD

On the other hand, The British pound climbs for the second straight day amidst two days of a volatile trading session, courtesy of political issues, mainly the Boris Johnson no-confidence vote on Monday. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD is trading at 1.2593, gaining 0.54%.

So far, the GBP/USD remains buoyant, courtesy of Boris Johnson’s victory, although by a tight margin, spurred a brief relief rally on the pound. Also, falling US Treasury yields narrow the spread between the 10-year US and UK bond yields. However, the sentiment shifted negative, as European bourses closed with losses, while US equities showed some weakness, except for the Russell 2000, up by 0.53%.

In the meantime, the US Dollar Index, a gauge of the buck’s value vs. six peers, records minimal losses of 0.01%, sitting at 102.401, a tailwind for the GBP/USD.

JPY/USD​

Japanese Yen weakness has come back to markets in a very big way over the past week. This was one of the most prominent trends in early-2022 trade as markets geared up for rate hikes from pretty much everywhere other than Japan.

While the US was seeing surging inflation and there were signs that the theme was starting to show elsewhere, in Europe, the U.K., and Australia, Japan didn’t have that same problem and this allowed for the BoJ to keep rates low and policy loose as trading counterparts were forced to adjust. This led to a blistering trend in USD/JPY as the pair jumped up to fresh 20-year highs; but after USD/JPY hit the 130.00 psychological level, matters began to slow, and the spot of 131.25 specifically was the area that twice caught the high in the pair, in April and May before prices posed a turn-around.

But, that turn-around was brief as USD/JPY cauterized support around the 127.00 level in late-May before Yen-sellers showed up again around last week’s open.

Russian Ruble​

The Russian rouble gave up gains to weaken on Tuesday, edging away from 61 to the dollar as the finance ministry slightly eased capital controls and investor focus turned to an expected central bank rate cut later in the week.

The finance ministry said export-focused companies were now allowed to transfer foreign currency to their overseas accounts under certain conditions, a move aimed at helping to pay for imports and prevent the rouble from strengthening.

By 1503 GMT, the rouble was 0.2% weaker against the dollar at 61.15, giving up intra-day gains of more than 1%. It has stabilised in the relatively narrow range of 60.0-62.5 in the past few days after rapid swings in May.

The rouble lost 0.5% to trade at 65.40 against the euro.

USD/CHF

The USDCHF moved higher into the US session and in the process moved above the 38.2% of the last trend move lower that saw the pair moved from 1.0063 to 0.95442 (on May 27).

Since that bottom, the price consolidated in a narrow range between 0.9544 and 0.9669 and traded above and below the 100/200 hour MAs. The price moved above those converged MAs on Friday, corrected to the same MAs yesterday, before racing outside the "red box" (and the 0.9669 level).

Today, the pair based near a higher swing area between 0.96948 and 0.9711 before moving to a high at 0.97782. That move took the price above the 38.2% retracement at 0.97426, and another swing area between 0.97488 and 0.97636.

Thank You

 

[forum forex]

June-08, 2022, Daily currency trading latest analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​

EUR/USD has oscillated around the 1.07 level since the start of the month. A disappointing European Central Bank (ECB) decision at its meeting on Thursday could pave the way for a fall below 1.06 during the week ahead, economists at Scotiabank report.

EUR/USD’s recovery picks up extra pace and challenges the 1.0750 region on Wednesday.

If the rebound surpasses the 4-month resistance line near 1.0750, the downside pressure is expected to lose traction and allow for the continuation of the move to the may high at 1.0786 (May 30). Up from here comes the weekly high at 1.0936 (April 21), an area reinforced by the 100-day SMA.

In the longer run, the pair’s bearish view is expected to prevail as long as it trades below the 200-day SMA at 1.1215.

AUD/USD​

On the other hand, The Australian Dollar is virtually unchanged against the US Dollar this week with AUD/USD coiling just below the yearly open. The focus now shifts to a breakout of the June opening-range for guidance as Aussie tests broader downtrend resistance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD technical price charts into the close of the week.

Technical Outlook:

The Australian Dollar turned just pips ahead of the 2016 low last month at 6827 with Aussie rallying more than 6.6% over the past four-weeks. The advance stalled in to key resistance last week and the focus remains on reaction into the 7254/70 zone for guidance- a region defined by the 200-day moving average, the 2022 yearly open and the 52-week moving average. Just higher rests the March high-day reversal close / 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 7314/43- both levels of interest for near-term topside exhaustion IF reached.


GBP/USD

Moreover, The price of the currency pair sterling against the dollar rebounded GBP/USD from the support 1.2430 all the way to the resistance 1.2600 and is trying to stabilize above it during trading today, Wednesday. Yesterday the dollar was broadly bought, resulting in gains on almost all major currencies, although this trend was reversed somewhat after the Census Bureau released its trade balance estimate for April.

According to the technical analysis of the pair:

The failure of the current bounce of the GBP/USD currency pair may support the formation of the head and shoulders formation on the daily chart below. This may bring an opportunity for the bears to shoot down if the currency pair fails to gain momentum to rebound higher. To turn to the upside, it is necessary to move towards the resistance levels 1.2785 and 1.3000, respectively.

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[forum forex]

June-09, 2022, Daily currency trading analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​

The British pound is sliding for the second consecutive day, after reaching a daily high near 1.2560, retreated and eyes for a re-test of the 1.2500 figure. At 1.2509, the GBP/USD falls courtesy of a dismal market mood, influenced by the ECB, which is preparing to lift off rates, although it would be done “gradually,” as ECB’s President Mrs. Lagarde acknowledged.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The GBP/USD daily chart depicts the pair remains downward pressured, though consolidating in a wide 1.2450-1.2600 range. The daily moving averages (DMAs) stay above the exchange rate and accelerate downwards. It’s worth noting that the Relative Strength Index (RSI), pushed to positive territory, though of late, is back below the 50 mid-line, which exacerbated the GBP/USD fall in the last two days.

Hence, the GBP/USD bias favors sellers. The GBP/USD first support would be the 1.2500 figure. A breach of the latter will send the pair towards challenging the June 7 swing low at 1.2430. Once cleared, the next demand level would be May 17, 1.2313 daily low, followed by the YTD Low at 1.2155.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY retreats from 2-decade highs around 134.55 but is trimming substantial losses, and albeit losing 0.09%, is preparing for a test of the 135.00 figure. At the time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at 134.20, a signal that traders are booking profits ahead of the release of US inflation data on Friday.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The USD/JPY monthly chart depicts the pair as upward biased, but RSI readings at 83 suggest the major might be about to peak soon. However, a rally towards 2002’s yearly high at 135.16 is on the cards. If the USD/JPY clears that hurdle, then a move towards the August 1998 high at 147.67 is on the cards.

US DOLLAR​

The US Dollar has been taking a pause in the bullish trend since hitting a fresh high at 105 on DXY in mid-May. That 105 level is a psychological level and after coming into play, it led to a 23.6% pullback of the US Dollar’s recent bullish trend, with a point of support coming into play at the Fibonacci retracement plotted at 101.35.

That low printed last Monday and since then, buyers have been slowly getting back into the matter, pushing a bullish move up to another Fibonacci level at 102.78.

Russian rouble

The Russian rouble slid off a two-week high on Thursday after President Vladimir Putin signed a decree that the market interpreted as a potential means for export-focused companies to scale down conversion of foreign currency.

Exporters will now need to convert forex into roubles in an amount set by a government commission, the decree said, without providing details.

The move was seen as paving the way to an imminent easing of capital controls that had obliged exporters to convert 80% of their revenues into roubles after Russia sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24. This ratio was later lowered to 50% in May.

By 1342 GMT, the rouble was 0.3% weaker against the dollar at 59.60 , earlier clipping its strongest point since May 25 of 57.4075.

It was still 0.3% stronger on the day at 63.33 versus the euro after touching a two-week high of 61.20.

USD/CAD

The run to the upside in the USDCAD has now moved through the next key upside target. That target included the 200 day moving average at 1.2659, and the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the May 25 high at 1.26571. Getting above those levels increase the bullish bias. They also represent close risk intraday for the pair.

Recall from last week, the price trade above and below the 200 day moving average on May 30, May 31, June 1, and June 2 before breaking to the downside. The high price during that consolidation took the price up to 1.2686.

Thank You

 

[forum forex]

June-10, 2022, Daily latest currency trading analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​

The USD/JPY hit levels not seen since 2002 and then pulled back only modestly. Analysts at MUFG Bank point out that the USD/JPY move higher may slow down on an increased risk of intervention to curb yen’s weakness. They see short-term risks in USD/JPY to the upside.

“The risks over the short-term is for USD/JPY to drift further higher. The CPI data and the Fed meeting next week will provide support for US yields, underlining the lack of change to the policy divergence driver, especially given Governor Kuroda’s speech this week. The threat of intervention is certainly now much higher following the statement today expressing concern, which may result in increased reluctance for speculative yen selling and result in non-dollar yen strength in circumstances of broader US dollar strength into the FOMC and BoJ meetings next week.”

EUR/USD

Yesterday’s European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision and press conference (although more hawkish) sent the euro tumbling post-announcement. Leading up to the announcement, markets were pricing in a more aggressive stance but the ECB quelled these projections by opening up the potential for a 50bps rate hike in September and not July as many expected. In addition, growth forecasts were revised lower thus weighing on euro upside despite the possibility of the aforementioned 50bps jump. GDP growth revisions read as follows:

2.8% in 2022, 2.1% in 2023, and 2.1% in 2024

Technical outlook

Trendline resistance on the daily EUR/USD chart has held once again emphasizing its importance since early February 2022. Price action is skewed to the downside and I would not be surprised if we see bears break below 1.0600 towards the 1.0500 psychological zone.

Resistance levels:

1.0800
Trendline resistance (black)
50-day EMA (blue)
20-day EMA (purple)

Support levels:

1.0600
1.0500


NZD/USD

The NZDUSD rallied in the Asian session, and moved back up toward a topside trend line.

Recall from yesterday, the price did move briefly above that trend line but quickly reversed to the downside. That move to the downside extended to a swing area between 0.63749 and 0.63792 toward the end of trading yesterday and into the earlier Asian session. Buyers lean against that level pushing the price toward the aforementioned topside trend line.

The low price briefly move below the 61.8% retracement at 0.6353. That came near a swing area between 0.63447 and 0.63479 and the lower channel trendline at 0.6336 currently (and moving lower).

XAG/USD

Silver (XAG/USD) advances after seesawing earlier in the day, reaching a three-week low at $21.27, but staged a recovery after the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment slumped the most in 5 decades. At the time of writing, XAG/USD is trading at $21.82, erasing earlier losses and now gaining 0.57%.

In the meantime, the US Dollar is rallying to fresh three-week highs, at 104.174, gaining 1.96%. At the same time, the US 10-year Treasury yield is rallying to new four-week highs at 3.14%, up by twenty basis points.

US consumer sentiment plunges, and US inflation rose to 4-decades highs
US consumer sentiment plummeted the most in 5-decades, following an inflation report that in the previous two months before May reading fell though rebounded to 8.6% YoY.


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[forum forex]

June-13, 2022, Daily currency trading analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​

The safe-haven dollar rose to a fresh four-week high against a basket of currencies on Monday, supported by fears of a global economic slowdown and bets on steep interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Global financial markets continued to smart from Friday's hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data that led to a broad-based drop in risk sentiment and fueled bets on even more aggressive policy tightening.

The U.S. Dollar Currency Index, which tracks the greenback against six other major currencies, was up 0.4% at 104.83, within sight of the 2-decade high of 105.01 touched in mid May.

USD/JPY

On the other hand, The USD/JPY plunges close to 200 pips after breaking above the 135.15 January 2002 high, as speculations of Japanese authorities’ intervention in the FX market emerged last Friday. At 134.18, the USD/JPY retreated from daily highs at around 135.19, despìte US Treasury yields extending their gains towards multi-year highs.

In the meantime, the US Dollar Index, a gauge of the buck’s value against its peers, is advancing 0.64% at 104.857 after reaching a 20-year high at around 105.065.

Central bank divergence between the Fed and the BoJ’s had been the main drivers of the USD/JPY in the year. Also, the positive correlation of the pair with the US 10-year Treasury yield triggered a USD/JPY rally, from 116.00 to 135.00.

EUR/USD​

Elsewhere, EUR/USD sank on Monday, falling as much as 0.9% to 1.0420 at its worst point, hitting its lowest level in more than a month, pressured by broad-based U.S. dollar strength and risk-off sentiment. During the session, the DXY index briefly surged above the 105.00 mark, touching its highest level in more than 20 years, bolstered by soaring U.S. Treasury yields. Stocks also plummeted amid hawkish repricing of Fed rate hike expectations, with the S&P 500 dropping more than 3% and entering bear market territory, a move that reinforced safe haven demand.

EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

EUR/USD deepened losses at the start of the week, breaking below a key area of support near 1.0500, a bearish signal for price action. If the pair closes below this level decisively, we could see a move towards the 2022 lows at 1.0349 in the coming days. On further weakness, the focus shifts lower to exchange rate parity.

On the other hand, if dip buyers return and manage to spark a bullish reversal, initial resistance appears at 1.0500. If prices climb above this barrier, upside pressure could pick up pace, pushing EUR/USD towards the next ceiling around 1.0650.


GBP/USD

The GBPUSD is down for the 4th consecutive day, and in the process, the pair has moved to test the swing low from May 13 (and low for the year) at 1.21543.

The low price for the day has reach 1.2160 so far.

Drilling to the hourly chart, the price action today initially found Asian session support near 1.2260. That level was the swing low going back to May 9. The subsequent bounce saw the price reenter a swing area between 1.2288 to 1.2302. The high price on a corrective move stalled right at the 1.2300 natural resistance level (the high reached 1.22998) and just below the high of the swing area. The price has been trending to the downside since that successful test.

XAU/USD​

Gold spot (XAU/USD) slides to a new monthly low near the $1820 figure on Monday, as US Treasury yields skyrocket, propelled by Friday’s hotter than expected US inflation numbers, ahead of the US Federal Reserve June meeting, in which investors have priced in a 50 bps increase. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading at $1826.60, down near 2.20%.

In the meantime, Gold remains trading heavy after reaching a daily high near $1880, weighed by higher US Treasury yields. The 10-year benchmark note rate jumped to multiyear-highs, to levels last seen in 2011, at around the 3.314% threshold, up by 15 bps.

Thank You

 

[forum forex]

June-14, 2022, Daily forex trading analysis and currency exchange forecast, by forum.forex.​

The EUR/USD continue to pull back after the beginning of the American session and it is hovering around 1.0410, slight above Monday’s close. Earlier on Tuesday, the pair peaked at 1.0485 but then lost momentum as Wall Street turned to the downside and as US yields printed fresh highs.

After a positive opening, the Dow Jones is falling by 0.42% and the S&P 500 by 0.11%. The US 10-year bond yield stands at 3.45%, the highest since April 2011. The FOMC meets and will announce on Wednesday a rate hike. Speculations of a 75 basis points rate hike rose after CPI inflation data on Friday; the PPI numbers today came below expectation but did not alleviate tightening expectations.

USD/JPY

On the other hand, Early on Tuesday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) expanded bond buying and offered to increase purchases over different durations on Wednesday, to bring the yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) back within the 0.25% cap.

USD/JPY TECHNICAL LEVELS TO CONSIDER

On the daily chart, USD/JPY appears to be consolidating between 135 and 134.50 as the market contemplates the next move. While it is difficult to make a case against the US dollar, prices look overbought at current levels – shown by the RSI. In addition, price action over the last few days offers little insight other than ‘indecision’, as small candle bodies are accompanied by extended wicks on both sides.

As such, if we are to see a lower move/pullback, the lowest wick around 133.20 becomes the tripwire for a potential drop lower followed by 131.35. On the upside, a break and hold above 135, could indicate the re-emergence of the bullish trend – something that could very well materialize should markets view tomorrow’s FOMC rate decision as hawkish. A potential 75 basis point hike would widen the current interest rate differential even more which could see the yen depreciate against the dollar further.

US Dollar​

Moreover, The dollar edged higher against a basket of currencies on Tuesday, to scale a fresh two-decade high, as traders braced for an aggressive rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve this week to try to curb inflation.

The U.S. Dollar Currency Index, which tracks its performance against six other major currencies, was up 0.1% at 105.27, after climbing to as high as 105.32, its strongest since December 2002.

With inflation and growth-related concerns plaguing economies around the world, the greenback has benefited from safe haven flows in recent weeks and months.


NZDUSD

Elsewhere, The NZDUSD - like other pairs vs the USD - is on a downward streak. For the NZDUSD it is working on its 8th consecutive day to the downside. The move lower has taken the price from 0.6575 on June 3 to the low of 0.6218 today so far. Yesterday the price closed at 0.62589. Stay below that level is more bearish

The move to the downside has pushed the price toward the May low which bottomed at 0.6212 on May 13. That is also the low for the year. The low price on May 12 was at 0.62164. Getting below both those levels would open up the door for further downside momentum. The low price just reached 0.6218 – just above those levels and trades at 0.6224 currently.

AUD/USD​

The Australian dollar plunges to fresh four-week lows after news that the Federal Reserve would hike 75 bps in the June meeting, the largest since 1994, as US inflation hit 8.6%, showing signs of not abating in the near term. After reaching a daily high near 0.6970, the Aussie dollar collapsed and trades at 0.6894 at the time of writing.

AUD/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

The AUD/USD is downward biased, reinforced by the break below the June 2 low at 0.7140, extending the pair losses towards the 0.7030s area. Nevertheless, on Monday, the major collapsed in tandem with most G8 currencies vs. the greenback on Federal Reserve news.

Therefore, the AUD/USD might re-test the 0.6900 before resuming the uptrend. Then the AUD/USD first support would be the May 16 low at 0.6872. A breach of the latter would expose the May 13 daily low at 0.6853, followed by the YTD low at 0.6828.

Thank You

 

[forum forex]

June-15, 2022, Daily currency trading analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​

The British pound gained some ground on Wednesday and trimmed five days of consecutive losses after reaching a 2-year low at around 1.1935. However, the GBP/USD stages a recovery and is back above the 1.2000 mark, trading at 1.2092, up by 0.81% at the time of writing.

Positive sentiment and lower US Treasury yields, a tailwind for GBP/USD

The pullback in US Treasury yields weighed on the greenback against the pound. The US 10-year Treasury yield is sliding five bps, at 3.418%. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index, a measure of the buck’s value against some peers, records minimal losses of 0.06%, down at 105.411.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD is falling on Wednesday, trading at daily lows near 1.0380 ahead of the Fed’s decision. The US dollar is posting mixed results while the euro is falling across the board weakened after the European Central Bank emergency meeting.

The EUR/USD awaits the outcome of the two-day Fed meeting trading at daily lows and looking at the May bottom of 1.0345/50. The mentioned area is a key support that if broken could open the doors to 1.0300 and below. Also, the area could trigger a rebound. Resistance levels might be located at 1.0420 and then 1.0490/1.0500.

USDCHF​

As the market awaits the FOMC decision at 2 PM ET, the USDCHF is trading near its highs for the day and for the week just reached 1.00297. The high price yesterday extended to 1.0036.

Looking at the hourly chart, the price action initially moved to the downside in the Asian session, and in doing so entered within a wide swatch of swing highs and lows that was developed between May 9, and May 18. That area comes between 0.9961 and 0.99937. The price low extended to the low of that swing area at 0.9961, where support buyers did show up and push the price back to the upside.



AUD/USD

AUDUSD currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 0.6850 (which stopped the earlier sharp downward impulse wave 1 in the middle of May).

The upward reversal from the support level 0.6850 is likely to create the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing – a strong buy signal for this currency pair.

Given the oversold daily Stochastic, AUDUSD can be expected to rise further toward the next round resistance level 0.7000.

XAU/USD​

Gold found some bids this morning after the week’s significant drop towards $1800/oz. The U.S. dollar being one such influence is trading marginally lower thus boosting gold prices ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision later this evening (see calendar below). Retail sales will serve as a precursor to the Fed rate decision and we could see anything higher than 0.2% could add to the already hawkish narrative, leading to a stronger dollar and weaker gold.

Russian rouble

The Russian rouble was down slightly in Wednesday trading, while stocks gained ground, shielded from the widespread global sell-off of recent days by Moscow's capital controls.

At 1330 GMT, the rouble shed 0.5% against the dollar at 56.89 and was down 0.3% to trade at 59.35 against the euro.

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