Overview of the main economical events of the current day - 02/12/2013
The Main Events of the Week
The US dollar was traded differently on Friday, it grew Vs the euro, Swiss franc, yen and Canadian dollar but it fell Vs the pound, Australian and New Zealand dollars. The trades were calm and the currencies were traded at a narrow range amid lowered activity index because of the holidays in the USA. The euro stopped 3-day growth and fell amid an unexpected decrease of German retail sales by 0.8% in October while a growth by 0.5% was expected. Meanwhile, inflation and unemployment data in the euro-zone are better than expected.
Canadian dollar dropped to its low of early October, 2011 Vs the dollar after the release of Canadian GDP that turned out slightly better than expected. Canadian GDP rose by 0.3% m/m in September having exceeded the expected growth by 0.2%. Quarterly growth of economy annualized accounted for 2.7% in Canada Vs the forecast of +2.5% - the economy rose at the fastest rate for two years in the third quarter amid the increase of consumer spending, investment and inventory holdings while the exports decreased. Despite some improvement of economy it is unlikely to make the Bank of Canada to start finishing monetary stimulation earlier than the US Fed.
By the end of the week the US dollar slightly fell according to the dollar index having lost 0.07% and continued the trend of the prior week: the growth Vs the yen and commodity currencies and decrease Vs European currencies. The dollar dropped against the British pound (-0.81%) and the euro (-0.20%), it almost didn’t change Vs the Swiss franc and grew Vs Japanese yen (+1.12%), Canadian dollar (+0.93%) and New Zealand dollar (+0.68%) and Australian dollar (+0.59%). By the end of November the dollar rose by 0.45% according to the dollar index having shown the growth against the yen and commodity currencies; it decreased to the pound and almost didn’t change Vs the euro and Swiss franc.
This week, the first one of the month, a lot of important data will be released: GDP, Trade Balance, Non-Farm Payrolls, and PMI. There will be meetings of four main central banks: the Reserve Bank of Australia – on Tuesday, Bank of Canada – on Wednesday, Bank of England and ECB – on Thursday. However, the main event of the week will be Non-Farm Payrolls released on Friday which will make clear possible terms of QE3 tapering start. Unemployment rate is expected to fall by 0.1% to 7.2% and 183-185 thousand of new jobs. Strong Non-Farm Payrolls (about 200 thousand) can increase the chances that the Fed will make a step towards QE tapering at the meeting on December already.
In the USA ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released on Monday; on Wednesday - ADP Employment Change, Trade Balance, New Home Sales (for two months) and ISM Services PMI; on Thursday – revised GDP for the third quarter (a revision from 2.8% to 3.1% is expected) and Factory Orders; on Friday – Personal Income and Spending and Preliminary U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
In the euro-zone the Final Manufacturing PMI will be released on Monday and Services PMI – on Wednesday; on Tuesday – Producer Price Index and on Wednesday – Retail Sales and revised GDP for the third quarter. In Germany Factory Orders will be released on Friday. In the UK during the first three days of the week there will be a release of Manufacturing PMI, Construction PMI and Services PMI. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne will make an Autumn Forecast Statement on Thursday and introduce the main provisions of government’s policy for the next year.
In Switzerland industrial output for the third quarter will be released on Wednesday and on Friday – inflation. In Australia Retail Sales and Current Account will be released on Tuesday, on Wednesday – GDP for the third quarter and on Thursday – Trade Balance. In Canada Trade Balance will be released on Wednesday, on Thursday – Building Permits and Ivey PMI; on Friday - Labor Market Data.
The Main Events of the Week
The US dollar was traded differently on Friday, it grew Vs the euro, Swiss franc, yen and Canadian dollar but it fell Vs the pound, Australian and New Zealand dollars. The trades were calm and the currencies were traded at a narrow range amid lowered activity index because of the holidays in the USA. The euro stopped 3-day growth and fell amid an unexpected decrease of German retail sales by 0.8% in October while a growth by 0.5% was expected. Meanwhile, inflation and unemployment data in the euro-zone are better than expected.
Canadian dollar dropped to its low of early October, 2011 Vs the dollar after the release of Canadian GDP that turned out slightly better than expected. Canadian GDP rose by 0.3% m/m in September having exceeded the expected growth by 0.2%. Quarterly growth of economy annualized accounted for 2.7% in Canada Vs the forecast of +2.5% - the economy rose at the fastest rate for two years in the third quarter amid the increase of consumer spending, investment and inventory holdings while the exports decreased. Despite some improvement of economy it is unlikely to make the Bank of Canada to start finishing monetary stimulation earlier than the US Fed.
By the end of the week the US dollar slightly fell according to the dollar index having lost 0.07% and continued the trend of the prior week: the growth Vs the yen and commodity currencies and decrease Vs European currencies. The dollar dropped against the British pound (-0.81%) and the euro (-0.20%), it almost didn’t change Vs the Swiss franc and grew Vs Japanese yen (+1.12%), Canadian dollar (+0.93%) and New Zealand dollar (+0.68%) and Australian dollar (+0.59%). By the end of November the dollar rose by 0.45% according to the dollar index having shown the growth against the yen and commodity currencies; it decreased to the pound and almost didn’t change Vs the euro and Swiss franc.
This week, the first one of the month, a lot of important data will be released: GDP, Trade Balance, Non-Farm Payrolls, and PMI. There will be meetings of four main central banks: the Reserve Bank of Australia – on Tuesday, Bank of Canada – on Wednesday, Bank of England and ECB – on Thursday. However, the main event of the week will be Non-Farm Payrolls released on Friday which will make clear possible terms of QE3 tapering start. Unemployment rate is expected to fall by 0.1% to 7.2% and 183-185 thousand of new jobs. Strong Non-Farm Payrolls (about 200 thousand) can increase the chances that the Fed will make a step towards QE tapering at the meeting on December already.
In the USA ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released on Monday; on Wednesday - ADP Employment Change, Trade Balance, New Home Sales (for two months) and ISM Services PMI; on Thursday – revised GDP for the third quarter (a revision from 2.8% to 3.1% is expected) and Factory Orders; on Friday – Personal Income and Spending and Preliminary U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
In the euro-zone the Final Manufacturing PMI will be released on Monday and Services PMI – on Wednesday; on Tuesday – Producer Price Index and on Wednesday – Retail Sales and revised GDP for the third quarter. In Germany Factory Orders will be released on Friday. In the UK during the first three days of the week there will be a release of Manufacturing PMI, Construction PMI and Services PMI. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne will make an Autumn Forecast Statement on Thursday and introduce the main provisions of government’s policy for the next year.
In Switzerland industrial output for the third quarter will be released on Wednesday and on Friday – inflation. In Australia Retail Sales and Current Account will be released on Tuesday, on Wednesday – GDP for the third quarter and on Thursday – Trade Balance. In Canada Trade Balance will be released on Wednesday, on Thursday – Building Permits and Ivey PMI; on Friday - Labor Market Data.