Daily Global Market Overview By zForex

[zForex]

Global Financial Markets: Navigating Uncertainty Amid Mixed Economic Signals and Central Bank Caution

On Friday, the dollar index demonstrated resilience, stabilizing near the 104 mark. This stabilization reflects market reactions to comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who indicated that the central bank might delay interest rate cuts beyond market expectations. Waller's remarks underscored the importance of a cautious approach, suggesting a hold on rate adjustments to evaluate whether the spike in January's inflation was an anomaly.

In the United States, recent economic data highlighted a deceleration in private sector activity in February. The S&P Global PMI revealed a notable slowdown, particularly in the services sector, which grew less than anticipated, while manufacturing output showed signs of recovery. This mixed economic picture adds complexity to the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, balancing growth concerns with inflationary pressures.

The economic landscape in Europe continued to evolve, with the latest PMI data from the Eurozone and Germany presenting a mixed view. Despite a general disinflationary trend, there were signs of cautious optimism among European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers. The ECB's Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts revealed a consensus to maintain a cautious stance on easing monetary policy, highlighting the ongoing deliberations about the timing of potential rate cuts amidst fluctuating inflation dynamics.

In the United Kingdom, recent Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for February painted a mixed economic picture. The manufacturing sector slightly underperformed against expectations, while the services sector remained robust, exceeding consensus forecasts. This divergence has fueled speculation regarding the Bank of England's (BoE) next moves, especially in light of Governor Andrew Bailey's comments on the UK's declining inflation and the potential for earlier rate cuts.

Japan's economic outlook is spoiled by uncertainties that could delay the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) planned departure from negative interest rates. These uncertainties, along with global shifts in monetary policy expectations, have implications for the Japanese Yen, which faces pressures from both domestic economic challenges and international market dynamics.

Amidst these global financial shifts, gold prices have remained strong, triggered by a combination of a softer dollar and consistent demand for safe-haven assets. This strength is indicative of the market's ongoing uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory, influenced by mixed signals from US economic data.

The crude oil market has seen its own share of volatility, with prices initially falling due to concerns over sustained high interest rates and demand uncertainties. However, prices later recovered, driven by renewed supply concerns amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and reports of a lower increase in US crude inventories.

This detailed overview captures the nuanced dynamics within global financial markets, underscoring the delicate balance central banks must strike between fostering economic growth and controlling inflation, amidst evolving economic indicators and geopolitical uncertainties.

 

[zForex]

Nvidia's Q4 Earnings Surge on AI and Data Center Growth Leading US Market Rally



Record-Breaking Performance: Nvidia's revenue soared to $22.1 billion, a 265% increase year-over-year, driven by its data center business which grew over 400%, highlighting the company's dominance in AI and accelerated computing.

Market and Future Outlook: The company's stock rose approximately 16% following the earnings report, with Nvidia on the brink of a $2 trillion market valuation, supported by strong future sales projections and continued demand for its AI technologies despite regulatory challenges.



Nvidia Keeps Breaking Records

Nvidia's latest Q4 earnings report has sent ripples through the market, showcasing a financial performance that has exceeded analysts' expectations and underscored the company's dominance in the AI and data center sectors. With a reported revenue of $22.1 billion, Nvidia has not only beaten the forecasted $20.55 billion but also marked a year-over-year increase of 265%. The earnings per share (EPS) stood at a robust $4.93, surpassing the predicted $4.64, reflecting the company's strong profitability and operational efficiency. These surprising results boosted market sentiment and led the US major indices to close at new historical highs after the stock became the most watched and important stock on the planet lately.

The surge in Nvidia's revenue can be largely attributed to its data center business, which saw a monumental increase of over 400%, amounting to $18.4 billion. This growth has been driven by the widespread adoption of Nvidia's Hopper GPU computing platform and InfiniBand networking solutions, which are integral to AI training and inference applications. Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, has highlighted the company's pivotal role in the AI revolution, stating that "Accelerated computing and generative AI have hit the tipping point," a sentiment that resonates with the global demand for AI capabilities.

Nvidia's Earnings Reflect Positively on Market Share

The market's response to Nvidia's earnings was overwhelmingly positive, with the company's stock price climbing approximately 16% leading gains in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. This investor confidence is bolstered by Nvidia's forward-looking projections, which estimate sales to reach around $24.0 billion in the upcoming quarter. Nvidia is position to reach a $2 trillion market valuation for the first time, further bolstered by a record $277 billion one-day increase in market capitalization. This optimistic outlook is particularly noteworthy given the supply constraints faced by the company's next-generation B100 chip, which is already in high demand.

Industry analysts have attributed Nvidia's strong performance to the soaring demand for AI across various tech sectors. Nvidia's RTX chips have become a cornerstone for generative AI, gaining popularity among gamers and creators alike. The company's software and services offerings have also made 'great progress,' achieving an annualized revenue run rate of $1 billion. Nvidia's AI enterprise system, which is likened to 'an operating system for artificial intelligence,' is set to be monetized per GPU, further expanding the company's revenue potential.

 

[zForex]

Dollar Strengthens with Key Economic Data, Central Bank Views, and Commodity Market Outlook

The dollar strengthened on Monday, as investors anticipated a week full of significant economic data that could offer insights into the future of global interest rates, notably focusing on a key US inflation report. The upcoming core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, is expected to reveal a 0.4% monthly increase. Recent minutes from the Federal Reserve's January meeting suggested that interest rates might have reached their peak for the current tightening cycle, with future decisions hinging on whether US inflation's persistence is temporary or enduring.

John C. Williams, President of the New York Federal Reserve, suggested that rate reductions later this year are a possibility but would only occur if necessary. Similarly, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller advocated for postponing rate cuts to assess if the inflation surge in January was an anomaly.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) is cautiously awaiting first-quarter data to confirm easing inflation before adjusting its tight monetary policy, though an increase in wages could justify some relaxation. The ECB's precise timing for policy easing remains undetermined, awaiting further data.

Key data releases are also awaited, including the US GDP Annualized for Q4 and German consumer statistics. In the UK, the GfK Consumer Confidence index indicated a dip in economic optimism, though recent PMI data provided some support to the British Pound by suggesting an economic recovery. The Bank of England, like other central banks, is expected to maintain a cautious approach amidst improving global risk sentiment and a potential return to the 2% inflation target by April.

In Japan, upcoming consumer price data could show a slowdown in core inflation, posing a challenge to the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) plans to exit negative interest rates, which has kept the yen under pressure.

The dollar's strength also influenced commodity markets, with gold prices slightly decreasing due to the stronger dollar and Middle East tensions while oil prices dropped, extending previous losses amid concerns that persistent high US inflation could postpone interest rate cuts, affecting global fuel demand growth.

 

[zForex]

Interest Rate Speculations and Inflation Dynamics with Key Economic Indicators

On Tuesday, the dollar experienced a decline as investors anticipated a series of US economic reports that will offer new insights into the Federal Reserve's timeline for potentially reducing interest rates. With recent strong US consumer and producer price data, market sentiment has shifted, virtually eliminating expectations for a rate cut at the Fed's March meeting and delaying forecasts for a reduction from May to June. Key data releases, including US durable goods figures and the January US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index—the Fed's preferred inflation gauge—are scheduled for later this week.

In Europe, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde indicated on Monday that inflation is moving closer to the central bank's targets. Despite this progress, the ECB intends to maintain its restrictive monetary policies for now, citing recent wage growth figures as positive yet insufficient to assure the ECB of a victory over inflation. This week, additional insights are expected from the German Consumer Price Index and the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices.

In the UK, speculation about a delay in interest rate cuts emerged following testimony by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey to the Treasury Committee. Bailey did not specify the number of anticipated cuts but suggested a trajectory toward lower rates.

In Japan, January's National Consumer Price Index reported a year-over-year increase of 2.2%, down from 2.6% in December, with the CPI excluding fresh food surpassing expectations at 2.0% YoY. This inflation data that has exceeded expectations has led to a cautious approach among investors regarding the Bank of Japan's potential departure from negative interest rates, supporting the Japanese Yen and contributing to a rise in Japanese government bond yields.

Gold prices saw a slight increase on Tuesday as the dollar weakened, with investors looking forward to a crucial US inflation report amidst a week packed with data publications and Federal Reserve officials' speeches, which could shed light on the Fed's rate cut plans. Meanwhile, crude oil prices rebounded due to concerns about shipping disruptions in the Red Sea, despite the pressure from a more hawkish Fed stance on demand. This rebound was partly triggered by an incident on Feb. 24, when the Houthis reportedly targeted the US-flagged oil tanker Torm Thor in the Gulf of Aden, an attack confirmed by the US Central Command as unsuccessful.

 

[zForex]

Navigating the Economic Shift: Japan's January 2024 CPI Analysis



Meeting the Target: Japan's CPI rises by 2.0% year-on-year in January 2024, aligning with the BOJ's inflation goal and signaling a potential change in long-standing monetary policy.

Sectorial Insights and Monetary Policy Implications: Despite the mixed sector performance, with energy prices dropping and accommodation fees soaring, market anticipation grows for an end to the BOJ's negative interest rate policy by spring 2024 amidst rising underlying inflation.


Japan's January CPI Meets BOJ Target

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Japan in January 2024 has been reported at a 2.0% year-on-year increase, meeting the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) inflation target and suggesting a potential shift in monetary policy. This rate of inflation is significant as it could prompt the BOJ to consider its first interest rate hike since 2007. The core-core CPI, excluding both fresh food and energy, also rose by 3.5% from the previous year, indicating persistent underlying inflationary pressures.

In a detailed look at the various sectors, energy prices have notably decreased by 12.1%, contributing to the tempered overall inflation rate. Food prices, while still on the rise at 5.9%, have shown a deceleration in growth. Accommodation fees have surged by 26.9%, likely influenced by the rebound in tourism. Service prices have increased by 2.2%, slightly higher than the rise in goods prices at 2.1%.

Market expectations are now leaning towards the BOJ ending its negative interest rate policy possibly by the spring of 2024. This anticipation is based on the service sector prices, which may reflect the increased labor costs due to Japan's tight labor market. The January CPI reading is the lowest since March 2022, suggesting a slowdown in inflation. However, the impact of higher import costs, partly due to a weaker yen, appears to be declining.

BOJ Governor: Rising Inflation Spurs Interest Rate Hike Speculation

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has acknowledged that underlying inflation is on the rise, with price increases spreading from goods to services. Despite the current slowdown, the core CPI is expected to stay above 2 percent throughout the year. Any further interest rate hikes will likely rely on an uptick in private consumption, which needs to be supported by real wage growth.

In the previous year's shunto (spring wage negotiations), Japanese firms agreed to an average wage increase of 3.6%, which could influence future inflation trends. As the economic landscape evolves, the CPI data for January 2024 serves as a critical indicator of Japan's economic health, with the BOJ's policy decisions being closely watched by economists and market participants alike. For those seeking the most current and comprehensive information, the Japanese Statistics Bureau and the Bank of Japan provide official reports and statements.

 

[zForex]

Global Financial Update: Navigating Inflation, Interest Rates, and Economic Indicators Amidst Geopolitical Tensions

The dollar saw a slight increase as investors overlooked recent U.S. manufacturing data, focusing instead on the upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metric, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, for signals on potential interest rate cuts. Despite a 6.1% drop in U.S. durable goods orders last month, surpassing the anticipated 4.5% decrease, market sentiment remained steady, with attention turning to the PCE index, expected to show a 0.4% rise.

Market participants are also awaiting the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized data for the fourth quarter and preliminary goods trade balance. Additionally, speeches from Federal Reserve officials Bostic, Collins, Williams, and Bank of England’s Mann are scheduled for later in the week.

In Germany, the Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey for March aligned with expectations at -29, maintaining the previous month's level. Focus shifts to Germany's upcoming Retail Sales and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for further economic insights.

Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden highlighted ongoing inflationary pressures, indicating the need for more data before adjusting the BoE’s policy stance. Despite forecasts of inflation returning to the 2% target by the second quarter of 2024, rising to about 2.75% later, market expectations of a rate cut by the UK central bank in August appear increasingly unrealistic based on officials’ comments.

Japan's core CPI outperformed expectations, sparking speculation that the Bank of Japan might soon end negative interest rates. However, Japan's unexpected recession in the fourth quarter may delay any tightening of monetary policy, affecting the yen amidst a global risk-on rally in equity markets.

Gold prices stabilized as lower U.S. Treasury yields balanced a stronger dollar, with investors eyeing key inflation data and Federal Reserve officials' remarks to determine the timing of potential rate cuts. The PCE report and GDP data are anticipated to influence gold's trajectory.

The oil market faces headwinds from rising borrowing costs curtailing global economic growth and oil demand. Ongoing ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas, along with attacks on civilian shipping in the Red Sea, add to the uncertainty. Despite these challenges, geopolitical risks in the Middle East and signs of a robust U.S. physical market are tempering concerns over global oil demand, limiting the decline in crude oil prices.

 

[zForex]

Dollar Eyes Monthly Gains, While Global Currencies and Commodities Navigate Market Sentiments



The dollar is on track for monthly gains, with investors eagerly awaiting crucial inflation data set to be released on Thursday. This data, specifically the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which is a key measure of inflation favored by the Federal Reserve, is expected to show a 0.4% increase. Its outcome could significantly influence interest rate expectations. Meanwhile, the yen has stabilized following comments from a policymaker suggesting a potential shift away from ultra-loose monetary policies.

In Europe, the euro faced challenges after disappointing economic data emerged from the Eurozone. Economic sentiment declined in February, falling to 95.4 from 96.1, contrary to expectations of an increase to 96.7. Consumer confidence remained low, mirroring forecasts at -15.5. Investors are now awaiting critical economic indicators from Germany, including retail sales, the consumer price index, and unemployment figures, set to be released on Thursday.

In the UK, Bank of England (BoE) officials are attempting to temper expectations for upcoming interest rate reductions. Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden emphasized the need for more evidence of diminishing inflationary pressures before considering rate cuts. Similarly, BoE's Catherine Mann highlighted how the spending patterns of affluent Britons complicate efforts to control inflation. Despite these remarks, market participants anticipate the BoE will begin reducing interest rates soon.

The yen and the Swiss franc, typically seen as safe-haven currencies, have been the weakest performers among G10 currencies against the dollar this month. This trend reflects a growing preference for riskier assets and a scaling back of expectations for US interest rate cuts, both of which have buoyed the dollar. This shift followed a Bank of Japan board member's optimistic comments on reaching the bank's 2% inflation target, suggesting a move away from negative interest rates and yield caps.

Gold prices have remained flat as the market prepares for the upcoming US inflation report, which could reshape interest rate forecasts. A stronger-than-anticipated PCE deflator might further diminish prospects for a Federal Reserve rate cut in the near term, potentially impacting gold negatively.

Oil prices have continued to fall, intensified by a larger-than-expected increase in US crude inventories, which has raised concerns over slowing demand. Additionally, the possibility of sustained high US interest rates has further pressured oil prices, marking the fifth consecutive week of inventory builds.

Bitcoin has seen a significant surge, reaching over $63,000 and marking an almost 50% increase in February alone. This monthly rise is the most substantial since December 2020, with a new record high above $69,000 now appearing achievable. The latest price was reported at $63,051, highlighting the cryptocurrency's strong performance this month.

 

[zForex]

Global Financial Update: Dollar Stability, Inflation Trends, and Central Bank Moves Shape Market Outlook



The dollar remained stable on Friday, following reports that US inflation continues to persist, although at a gradually decreasing rate. This situation fuels optimism that the Federal Reserve may commence interest rate reductions in June. In contrast, the yen weakened, returning to the significant level of 150 against the dollar. Recent robust US economic indicators and persistent inflation have prompted traders to adjust their expectations for the Federal Reserve's easing cycle commencement in June. Upcoming payroll data will be crucial for assessing the state of the US labor market.

In Europe, inflation data from Germany, France, and Spain indicated a slowdown, hinting that the euro zone's inflation rate for February might decrease to approximately 2.5% from January's 2.8%, edging closer to the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of 2%. It is anticipated that the ECB will continue its policy normalization efforts. Despite expectations that ECB President Christine Lagarde will dismiss any rate cuts in the March meeting, financial markets speculate that reductions could begin as early as June. Focus is now shifting towards the ECB's upcoming interest rate decision.

In the UK, Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden expressed a desire to monitor inflation's persistence before altering the monetary policy stance. Despite market anticipations of imminent interest rate cuts, BoE officials have resisted, thereby supporting the Pound Sterling. The upcoming final UK Manufacturing PMI and a speech by BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill are expected for further direction.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda remarked that the 2% inflation target remains unmet, amid Japan's unexpected recession and speculation around the timing of the next rate hike, which has been delayed since 2007. Additionally, a recent surge in global equity markets has diminished the appeal of the safe-haven Japanese yen (JPY).

Gold prices remained above $2,040 an ounce, heading for a second consecutive weekly gain, as the latest U.S. inflation data met expectations, maintaining the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts within the year. Market odds favor a two-thirds probability of a rate cut by the Fed in June, with no changes anticipated for March and May.

Oil prices saw a slight increase on Friday, poised for a modest weekly gain, as the market awaits OPEC+'s supply decision for the second quarter, amidst mixed demand signals from major consumers, the U.S. and China.

Cryptocurrency experienced a significant surge, with a 45% increase in February, marking its largest monthly gain in over three years. This boost was driven by the influx of investments into newly approved and launched exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States.

 

[zForex]

Global Financial Update: Fed's Policy Shift, Economic Forecasts, and Commodity Market Movements

The dollar index marked its lowest point in a month. This follows comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicating a potential easing of restrictive monetary policy later in the year. Meanwhile, ADP's employment data for February showed weaker than expected growth in US private sector jobs, and the JOLTS report indicated job openings slightly below projections.

Attention is now focused on Powell's upcoming Senate testimony, alongside forthcoming data on unemployment claims, the trade balance, and consumer credit. The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to hold the Deposit Facility Rate steady at 4.0% for the fourth consecutive session. During its meeting, the ECB will also provide updated economic forecasts, with ECB President Christine Lagarde's comments post-meeting anticipated for insights into future monetary policy and economic projections.

Eurozone retail sales data for January suggested a less severe contraction than expected, with a reported annual decline of 1%, against the forecasted 1.3% drop. This followed a 0.5% decrease in December, with a modest month over month improvement of 0.1%, aligning with predictions after a previous 0.6% fall.

In the UK, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt unveiled the spring budget, highlighting the nation's resilience through financial and energy crises and the ongoing war in Europe. Despite these challenges, Hunt projected economic growth of 0.8% in 2024 and 1.9% in 2025, surpassing previous estimates and suggesting prolonged high interest rates to combat inflation, which strengthened the Pound Sterling.

In Japan, Bank of Japan (BoJ) official Junko Nakagawa remarked on the improving likelihood of achieving a 2% inflation target, emphasizing cautious policy decisions amidst uncertainty. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda also supported the possibility of exiting stimulus measures while pursuing the inflation goal, bolstering the Japanese Yen.

Gold prices surged above $2,150 an ounce, reaching record highs as the dollar and Treasury yields dipped amid anticipation of the Federal Reserve reducing interest rates soon due to economic concerns.

WTI crude futures remained above $79 per barrel, building on a more than 1% increase from the previous session, as a recent EIA report revealed a smaller-than-anticipated rise in US crude inventories, suggesting a less significant build of 1.367 million barrels against the 2.116 million barrel forecast.

 

[zForex]

Dollar Stabilizes Amid Global Economic Updates: Inflation Data, Central Bank Moves, and Commodity Price Shifts

The dollar remained stable on Friday, poised to end a three-week decline, fueled by higher than expected US inflation figures that hinted at a possible delay in Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting next week is highly anticipated, with investors keen on the interest rate projections (dot plot) and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's commentary, although no changes in interest rates are currently expected.

Philip Lane, the Chief Economist of the European Central Bank (ECB), emphasized the need for the ECB to assess inflationary pressures more clearly in June. ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that the initial rate reductions are more likely in June rather than April, as per her statements in the March meeting press conference. Additionally, the release of the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from France and Italy is awaited later on Friday.

In the UK, GDP growth for January showed a 0.2% month-over-month increase, signaling an exit from recession. This development has led markets to adjust their expectations for a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut from June to August. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey discussed the duration for which high interest rates need to be maintained, acknowledging signs that tight monetary policies are effectively reducing inflationary pressures.

The yen held steady as investors awaited a Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting next week, which could mark a significant departure from its negative interest rate policy, especially if major Japanese companies implement expected wage increases. The full response of Japan's largest firms to union wage hike demands has bolstered expectations for a policy shift by the BOJ, supporting the safe-haven yen amid a generally cautious market sentiment.

Gold prices were set to break a three-week winning streak on Friday, as the unexpected spike in US inflation led traders to reconsider the pace and magnitude of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.

Oil prices saw a slight decline on Friday but were on course for a nearly 4% weekly increase, led by the International Energy Agency's (IEA) upward revision of its 2024 oil demand forecast, the fourth such adjustment since November, and a surprising drop in US inventories. This revision comes in the context of disruptions to Red Sea shipping due to Houthi attacks.

 

[zForex]

Dollar Stabilizes Amid Global Economic Updates: Inflation Data, Central Bank Moves, and Commodity Price Shifts

The dollar remained stable on Friday, poised to end a three-week decline, fueled by higher than expected US inflation figures that hinted at a possible delay in Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting next week is highly anticipated, with investors keen on the interest rate projections (dot plot) and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's commentary, although no changes in interest rates are currently expected.

Philip Lane, the Chief Economist of the European Central Bank (ECB), emphasized the need for the ECB to assess inflationary pressures more clearly in June. ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that the initial rate reductions are more likely in June rather than April, as per her statements in the March meeting press conference. Additionally, the release of the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from France and Italy is awaited later on Friday.

In the UK, GDP growth for January showed a 0.2% month-over-month increase, signaling an exit from recession. This development has led markets to adjust their expectations for a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut from June to August. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey discussed the duration for which high interest rates need to be maintained, acknowledging signs that tight monetary policies are effectively reducing inflationary pressures.

The yen held steady as investors awaited a Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting next week, which could mark a significant departure from its negative interest rate policy, especially if major Japanese companies implement expected wage increases. The full response of Japan's largest firms to union wage hike demands has bolstered expectations for a policy shift by the BOJ, supporting the safe-haven yen amid a generally cautious market sentiment.

Gold prices were set to break a three-week winning streak on Friday, as the unexpected spike in US inflation led traders to reconsider the pace and magnitude of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.

Oil prices saw a slight decline on Friday but were on course for a nearly 4% weekly increase, led by the International Energy Agency's (IEA) upward revision of its 2024 oil demand forecast, the fourth such adjustment since November, and a surprising drop in US inventories. This revision comes in the context of disruptions to Red Sea shipping due to Houthi attacks.

 

[zForex]

Dollar Weakens, Gold Records on Rate Bets (04.11.2025)​

Global trade policy shifts dominated markets as the euro surged past $1.13 after the EU suspended U.S. tariffs for 90 days, while the yen hit a six-month high on safe-haven demand.

Gold soared to a record above $3,200 amid recession fears and Fed rate cut expectations, and silver followed, boosted by tariff-related uncertainty. Meanwhile, the pound climbed to $1.30 as dollar weakness persisted, but cautious BoE rate cut bets and slow UK growth projections kept gains limited.

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Post automatically merged: Apr 11, 2025

EU Tariff Relief Drives Euro Above $1.13 (04.11.2025)​

The euro climbed above $1.13, its highest since September 2024, after the EU suspended new U.S. tariffs for 90 days to allow trade talks. This followed President Trump’s move to cut tariffs to 10% for non-retaliating countries while raising Chinese duties to 125%. While easing global slowdown fears, the mixed signals fueled uncertainty. Money markets adjusted ECB expectations, pricing the deposit rate at 1.8% by December, up from 1.65%, and lowered the probability of an April cut to 90%.

Key resistance is at 1.1390, followed by 1.1425 and 1.1500. Support lies at 1.1260, then 1.1180, and 1.1100.

Yen Gains on Recession Fears​

The yen rose past 144 per dollar, a six-month high, as U.S. recession fears and a Treasury selloff boosted demand for safe-haven assets. Although Trump paused new tariffs for 90 days, total U.S. tariffs on China now stand at 145%, prompting retaliation with China imposing 84% tariffs on U.S. goods. The U.S.-Japan trade outlook remains in focus, with Japan still facing a 10% U.S. tariff but seeking better terms.

Key resistance is at 145.80, with further levels at 148.00 and 152.70. Support stands at 142.00, followed by 139.65 and 138.00.

Gold Surges, Hits Record Above $3,200​

Gold spiked to a new record above $3,200 per ounce on Friday, driven by safe-haven demand and a weakening dollar amid intensifying U.S.-China trade tensions. The U.S. hiked tariffs on China to 145%, while easing duties for other partners. At the same time, U.S. consumer prices unexpectedly fell in March, fueling bets on a Fed rate cut in June and a full percentage point cut by year-end. Despite this, inflation risks remain due to ongoing tariff pressure. Gold is set for its strongest weekly gain since November.

Key resistance is at $3,250, followed by $3,300 and $3,350. Support stands at $3165, then $3135 and $3090.

​

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 04.14.2025​

Dollar Hits 3-Year Low as Tariff Uncertainty Weighs on Markets​

The U.S. dollar index fell to a three-year low near 99.5 as markets weighed the Trump administration’s shifting tariff policies and broader economic concerns.

While temporary exemptions on tech imports eased tensions slightly, uncertainty remains over potential duties within months. The euro strengthened toward $1.14, the yen rallied on safe-haven demand, and gold retreated from record highs. Meanwhile, the pound held firm amid growing BoE rate cut expectations, and silver slipped after a sharp weekly gain. Investors now look ahead to Fed Chair Powell’s upcoming speech for clarity on rate policy.

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 04.14.2025​

Dollar Hits 3-Year Low amid Tariff Policy Uncertainty​

EUR/USD traded around 1.1390 on Monday after opening lower, while the U.S. dollar index fell to 99.5, its lowest in three years, amid concerns over the U.S. economic outlook and policy uncertainty. The drop followed the Trump administration’s decision to exempt certain tech products from tariffs under the new “reciprocal” trade policy. However, Commerce Secretary Lutnick said these items may still face duties within two months, and Trump confirmed they remain under the 20% Fentanyl Tariffs. Despite a 3% weekly drop in the dollar index and weak consumer sentiment data, Lutnick said he is “not worried” about the dollar.

Key resistance is at 1.1400, followed by 1.1475 and 1.1500. Support lies at 1.1260, then 1.1180 and 1.1100.

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 04.14.2025​

Gold Eases to $3,220 as Trade Tensions Cool Slightly​

Gold fell to around $3,220 on Monday, retreating from its $3,245 record high, as trade tensions eased after Trump granted tariff exemptions on electronics from China. However, Commerce Secretary Lutnick said these goods, including semiconductors, may face new duties within two months, adding uncertainty.

Last week’s rally was driven by safe-haven demand after Trump raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%, prompting China to hike tariffs on U.S. imports to 125%, effective Saturday. Markets now await Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Wednesday for clues on future rate cuts.
Key resistance is at $3,250, followed by $3,300 and $3,350. Support stands at $3165, then $3135 and $3090.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 04.15.2025​

Tariff Delay Calms Markets; Focus Turns to Powell​

The U.S. dollar index stabilized near 100 on Tuesday after a three-day slump, as the White House paused some tech tariffs and hinted at a delay in auto levies.

EUR/USD hovered near 1.1330, while the yen softened on reduced safe-haven demand. Gold rose past $3,220 as Fed rate cut bets intensified following comments from Governor Waller. Sterling climbed to a six-month high despite expectations of BoE easing, and silver paused after a four-day rally. Markets now look ahead to U.S.-Japan trade talks and Powell's upcoming remarks.

USD/JPY Analysis By zForex Research Team - 04.15.2025​

Tech Tariff Pause Pressures Yen​

The Japanese yen slipped below 143 per dollar Tuesday as risk appetite improved, reducing safe-haven demand. The shift followed Trump’s tariff exemptions on select tech goods and the possible delay of the 25% auto tariff. Still, caution persisted after the U.S. launched a national security probe into semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, which are key Asian exports. Focus now turns to U.S.-Japan trade talks later this week, with Japan’s Akazawa Ryosei meeting Treasury Secretary Bessent and Trade Rep. Greer. Japan, currently under a reduced 10% tariff, is expected to seek better terms.

Key resistance is at 144.20, with further levels at 148.30 and 152.50. Support stands at 141.80, followed by 141.00 and 139.65.

Silver Analysis By zForex Research Team - 04.15.2025​

Silver Eases as Rally Pauses​

Silver opened slightly lower after a four-day rally, entering a correction phase following recent volatility. The metal remains sensitive to trade tensions and upcoming comments from Fed Chair Powell, as markets weigh growth concerns against inflation expectations for clues on future policy.

Geopolitical uncertainty from the ongoing U.S.-China trade war continues to weigh on sentiment.

Resistance levels are seen at 32.50, with further hurdles at 33.00 and 33.80, while support is located at 31.40, followed by 30.20 and 29.20 if the decline extends.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 04.16.2025​

Safe-Haven Demand Lifts Gold, Yen, and Pound​

The U.S. dollar index dropped below 100 on Wednesday, nearing a three-year low, as investors awaited remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

The EUR/USD held near 1.1323 despite mixed Eurozone data. The Japanese yen rose past 143 on safe-haven flows and fresh trade tensions. Gold surged to a new all-time high above $3,260, while silver remained firm around $32.30. The British pound climbed to $1.32 on optimism over delayed U.S. auto tariffs and rising BoE rate cut expectations.

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 04.16.2025​

EUR/USD Stable as Dollar Slides​

The EUR/USD pair hovered near 1.1323 early Wednesday, while the U.S. Dollar Index fell below the 100 mark, approaching its lowest level in nearly three years. Investors remain focused on an upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, as the central bank seeks to support economic growth while managing inflation risks heightened by recent tariff developments. In the Eurozone, industrial production data exceeded expectations, though the ZEW economic sentiment index fell short of forecasts in Tuesday’s releases.

Key resistance is at 1.1400, followed by 1.1475 and 1.1500. Support lies at 1.1260, then 1.1180 and 1.1100.

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 04.16.2025​

Pound Gains on Easing Trade Risks​

The British pound climbed above $1.32 on Wednesday, a six-month high, supported by easing trade tensions and shifting BoE expectations. Hopes that Trump may delay auto tariffs boosted UK exporters, especially auto parts firms.

Markets are nearly fully pricing in a BoE rate cut in May, as companies begin job cuts ahead of tax hikes and rising wage costs. Private wage growth stayed high at 5.9%, but March saw a sharp drop in employment.

While a stronger pound may ease inflation near term, upcoming energy and regulated price hikes could complicate BoE policy. Rate cut expectations are rising.

If GBP/USD breaks above 1.3270, resistance levels are at 1.3430 and 1.3500. Support is at 1.3015, followed by 1.2900 and 1.2700.

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[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 04.17.2025​

Dollar Rebounds on Powell Comments; Gold Holds, Silver Climbs​

The U.S. dollar rebounded on Thursday, with the Dollar Index climbing above 99.5 as Fed Chair Powell pushed back on immediate rate cuts.

EUR/USD steadied near 1.1370, while the yen weakened past 142 amid cautious sentiment. Gold held above $3,330 on safe-haven demand and ongoing trade tensions. The British pound eased to $1.3225 after a seven-day rally, with UK inflation softening. Silver remained firm above $32.50, as markets digested Powell’s inflation warnings and a White House review of mineral tariffs.

USD/JPY Analysis By zForex Research Team - 04.17.2025​

Yen Weakens Past 142 as Powell Pushes Back on Rate Cuts​

The Japanese yen weakened past 142 per dollar on Thursday as the U.S. dollar rebounded after Fed Chair Powell signaled no imminent rate cuts. He warned that tariffs could raise inflation and slow growth. Japan’s March exports missed forecasts due to weaker demand from China and the EU, though rising imports pointed to stable domestic demand. Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said currency issues were not on the agenda in current U.S. trade talks, where Japan continues pushing for the removal of Trump-era tariffs, including a 10% base rate and an extra 25% on auto exports.

Key resistance is at 144.20, with further levels at 148.30 and 152.50. Support stands at 141.80, followed by 141.00 and 139.65.

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 04.17.2025​

Gold Holds Above $3,330 on Trade Uncertainty​

Gold held above $3,330 on Thursday after a 3% jump, supported by safe-haven demand amid U.S. trade policy uncertainty. The Trump administration paused tariffs on some tech goods but opened new probes into semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports, possibly leading to fresh levies. Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled no immediate rate changes, warning tariffs could raise inflation and slow growth. Investors are also watching for progress in U.S.-China trade talks, with Beijing open to negotiations under specific conditions.

Key resistance is at $3360, followed by $3,380 and $3,400. Support stands at $3290, then $3245 and $3190.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 04.18.2025​

Markets Pause After ECB Cut, Yen CPI Data, and Trade Jitters​

The euro eased slightly after the ECB delivered a widely expected rate cut but retained strong monthly gains. The yen held firm following Japan’s CPI data, while gold and silver pulled back from recent highs as traders booked profits ahead of the Easter holiday.

The U.S. dollar saw modest strength following hawkish Fed signals, despite continued trade tensions and inflation concerns. Sterling extended its rally on a softer inflation print, while market focus shifts to next week’s central bank meetings and trade developments.

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 04.18.2025​

Euro Eases After ECB Cut but Holds Weekly Gains​

The euro edged down toward $1.13 on Friday, easing slightly from its highest level since January 2022, after the ECB delivered a widely expected rate cut. The central bank lowered the deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%. This marked the sixth consecutive cut and brought the rate to its lowest level since early 2023. The ECB also removed its previous reference to policy being "restrictive" but warned that rising global trade tensions could weaken the growth outlook.

Despite the pullback, the euro has gained around 5% against the dollar in April. The rally has been fueled by growing doubts about the dollar’s global dominance and increased investor preference for the euro. Additional support came from expectations of higher defense spending in the eurozone, particularly in Germany. On Good Friday, with markets quiet, the euro held steady near 1.1370.

Key resistance is at 1.1415, followed by 1.1475 and 1.1500. Support lies at 1.1260, then 1.1180 and 1.1100.

USD/JPY Analysis By zForex Research Team - 04.18.2025​

Yen Holds Steady After CPI Data, BOJ in Focus​

The Japanese yen held around 142.3 per dollar on Friday, near a seven-month high, after inflation data showed headline CPI eased to 3.6% in March and core inflation matched forecasts at 3.2%.

Focus now shifts to next week’s Bank of Japan meeting, where rates are expected to stay at 0.5%. However, growth forecasts may be lowered due to concerns over U.S. tariffs impacting Japan’s export-driven economy. The BOJ is likely to stick with gradual tightening, supported by rising wages and food prices.

Finance Minister Kato denied currency manipulation, saying Japan isn’t deliberately weakening the yen.

Key resistance is at 144.20, with further levels at 148.30 and 152.50. Support stands at 141.80, followed by 141.00 and 139.70.

Post automatically merged: Yesterday at 09:40

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 04.21.2025​

Dollar's Dip Impacts Currencies and Gold​

The financial markets experienced significant fluctuations, driven by a weakening U.S. dollar and escalating trade tensions.

The EUR/USD climbed with concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence, while the Japanese yen strengthened as the dollar weakened. Gold prices surged to a new all-time high, fueled by trade fears and a low-yield environment. The British pound extended its winning streak, supported by the dollar's slide, and silver prices hovered.

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 04.21.2025​

EUR/USD Surges to 1.1470 on Dollar's Three-Year Low​

EUR/USD opened the week with strong momentum, climbing to around 1.1470 on Monday morning. This surge came as the U.S. dollar index dropped to a fresh three-year low near 98.6, pressured by rising concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence. Market anxiety intensified following renewed criticism from President Donald Trump, who stated last week that the removal of Fed Chair Jerome Powell "cannot come fast enough," calling for deeper rate cuts. These remarks added to ongoing market unease already fueled by trade tensions and policy uncertainty under the Trump administration.

Key resistance levels are seen at 1.1530, 1.1600, and 1.1680, while support is located at 1.1400, 1.1260, and 1.1180.

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 04.21.2025​

XAU/USD Driven by ECB Rate Cut​

Gold prices surged more than 1% on Monday, reaching a new all-time high above $3,370 per ounce. The rally was driven by intensifying global trade tensions and a weakening U.S. dollar, which has fallen to its lowest level in three years. The dollar’s decline has made gold more attractive to non-dollar investors.

The latest catalyst came from President Trump’s order for a probe into possible new tariffs on all U.S. critical mineral imports, sparking further trade fears, especially with China. The ECB’s recent rate cut also strengthened gold’s appeal in a low-yield environment. Sentiment was further shaken after White House adviser Kevin Hassett confirmed that the administration is still reviewing Powell’s position, deepening concerns about the Fed’s autonomy.

Key resistance is at $3400, followed by $3,450 and $3,500. Support stands at $3356, then $3310, and $3250.

Post automatically merged: Yesterday at 09:41

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 04.22.2025​

Risk Aversion Rises on Trade​

The dollar weakened further on Tuesday as concerns over the Fed’s independence and mounting U.S.-China trade tensions rattled investors.
EUR/USD remained firm above 1.15, while the Japanese yen surged to seven-month highs and gold hit a record above $3,460 on safe-haven flows. The British pound extended gains despite softer inflation data, and silver rebounded toward $33 amid geopolitical risks. Markets now await central bank commentary and trade policy clarity amid rising political noise.

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 04.22.2025​

EUR/USD Holds Firm as U.S. Policy Uncertainty Grows​

EUR/USD traded around 1.1530 on Tuesday, while the dollar index remained around 98.4, weighed down by concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence and escalating trade tensions. President Trump called for swift rate cuts and suggested removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, fueling worries over political influence on monetary policy. The sentiment was further impacted by stalled US-China negotiations and China’s warnings to countries aligning with Washington.

Key resistance is at 1.1550, followed by 1.1600 and 1.1680. Support lies at 1.1400, then 1.1260 and 1.1180.

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 04.22.2025​

UK Inflation Eases, But Pound Strengthens​

The British Pound rose above $1.34 on Tuesday, its highest level in seven months, supported by broad dollar weakness. This gain came despite UK inflation softening more than expected, with headline CPI at 2.6% and services inflation down to 4.7%. Easing price pressures led markets to raise expectations for Bank of England rate cuts, now pricing in 86 basis points of easing by year-end, with a fourth cut increasingly likely.

If GBP/USD breaks above 1.3430, resistance levels are at 1.3500 and 1.3550. Support is at 1.3300, followed by 1.3200 and 1.3050.