Daily Market Analysis by FxGrow

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Daily Market Analysis – 01st June, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Euro Drops amid ongoing Greece talks

Euro is trading lower against all its counterparts amid concerns that Greece will be unable to repay over €300 million due to the IMF on June 5 and a possible exit from the Eurozone.

Euro recovery seems to have lost steam as concerns are rising over a possible Greek default if it is unable to reach a deal with its European creditors soon. Greek negotiations are going on as its creditors are pressing for action in areas including the pension system, labor market and sales tax.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has said “The lack of an agreement so far is not due to the supposed intransigent, uncompromising and incomprehensible Greek stance. It is due to the insistence of certain institutional actors on submitting absurd proposals and displaying a total indifference to the recent democratic choice of the Greek people".

Germany's EU Commissioner Guenter Oettinger said "We will need progress at the working group level, in order that we can agree on a reform agenda, perhaps even by the end of the week, which would trigger the payment of the last tranche of aid from the current aid program".

"Greek debt yields provide only a rough guide, and although a missed deadline will not spell default, market concern remains high. It's difficult to quantify how much the currency market has factored in the possibility of Greece missing the June 5 repayment deadline" said Shinichiro Kadota, chief Japan Forex strategist at Barclays in Tokyo.

China HSBC Manufacturing PMI for May came at 49.2 in line with analyst expectations.

Annabel Fiddes, Economist at Markit, on the HSBC PMI, said it "signaled a further deterioration in the health of China's manufacturing sector in May."

In Japan, capital spending for non-financial firms jumped 7.3% in the first quarter, while Japan manufacturing for May was steady at 50.9 as expected.

Euro zone’s Manufacturing PMI fell to 52.2 while analyst expectations were at 52.3

Germany’s Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.1 while analyst expectations were at 51.4

Crude Oil is trading higher at $59.85 as traders await OPEC meeting in Vienna on June 5.

Gold is trading lower in the Asia at 1187.22 while Silver has recovered its losses at 16.68

01st June 2015 – 09:31hrs GMT

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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Daily Market Analysis – 02nd June, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

US ISM Manufacturing Index Increased to a 3-month high in May

US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index increased to a 3-month high in May as manufacturing activity in the US expanded at a faster pace than expected.

US Manufacturing expanded in May as the PMI registered 52.8 percent, an increase of 1.3 percentage points over the April reading of 51.5 percent, indicating growth in manufacturing for the 29th consecutive month.

US consumer spending remained flat in April as households cut back on purchases of luxury items and continued to increase savings.

"While the US economy still looks set to rebound from the decline seen in the first quarter, the extent of the second quarter recovery therefore remains highly uncertain and could well disappoint. It therefore remains too early to take a reliable reading on the health of the economy and the data flow over the summer will be crucial in determining the timing of the first Fed rate hike." - said Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit.

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates unchanged at a record low 2.0 percent, in line with analysts' expectations. Following the news Australian dollar remained bullish and AUDUSD touched a high of 0.7700

"There are a lot of factors influencing the currency. One of those is probably tomorrow, the GDP number for the first quarter. It's probably going to be very strong," Matthew Circosta, an analyst at Moody's Analytics, told CNBC. "But moving forward, you'll see that Aussie dollar weakness coming through in the next few months, because the U.S. is going to be raising interest rates."

UK manufacturing activity increased in May to 52.0 which accounts for about 10% of the UK economy.

"Expectations of a broad rebound in U.K. economic growth during the second quarter of the year is called into question by these readings" – said Rob Dobson, senior economist at Markit.

Greek debt negotiations continue between Greece and its European creditors. IMF chief Christine Lagarde, ECB president Mario Draghi, French president Francois Hollande and European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker met yesterday to give out an offer for Greece to consider.

Crude Oil is trading higher at $60.90 ahead of weekly US supply data.
Gold is trading lower in the Asia at 1187.26 while Silver is weak at 16.65

02nd June 2015 – 09:54hrs GMT

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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Daily Market Analysis – 03rd June, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Euro Surges on Greek Deal Hopes

The euro surged against its major counterparts on hopes that Greece will soon reach a deal with its European creditors. EURUSD touched a two week high of 1.1195 and US Dollar plunged with Dollar index recording a 1.5% decline, the biggest decline in 24hrs since July 2013.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is going to Brussels today to discuss his government's proposal for deal with its creditors and secure the bailout funds.

European institutions and the International Monetary Fund have completed the draft of an agreement to unlock bailout aid for Greece. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said that he has submitted his terms for a deal to European institutions and the IMF, and he is optimistic that Greece’s proposal would be accepted.

Greece needs to repay IMF 1.6 billion euros this month. The first installment of 300 million euros is due Friday, with other installments due on June 12, 16 and 19. Greece is running out of cash without a deal and is close to a default.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said "We have submitted a realistic plan for Greece to exit the crisis. We are not waiting for them to submit a proposal, Greece is submitting a plan - it is now clear that the decision on whether they want to adjust to realism... the decision rests with the political leadership of Europe."

European Central Bank will announce its monetary policy and rate decision today. It will be followed by the press conference of ECB President Mario Draghi. It is expected that ECB will continue to implement its €60/month QE program.

In Euro Zone Inflation is back according to a report from Eurostat, consumer prices have jumped to 0.3% in the last month while core inflation is at 0.9%, but is below the ECB's target of 2%.

"Spain and Italy appear to be staging strong recoveries, benefiting in particular from impressive export performances”. - Chris Williamson, Markit's chief economist.

UK Construction PMI climbed to 55.9 as the construction sector continues its recovery and growth after Prime Minister David Cameron unexpectedly won the general election with an outright majority.

"Additionally, construction firms experienced an upturn in new business growth from April's near two-year low and job creation was the fastest recorded so far in 2015" - Tim Moore, Markit

Australian GDP surged to 4.3%, while analyst expectations were at 4.1%. Australian economy faces pressure as domestic demand and consumption remains low, followed by slowdown in China and lower global commodity prices.

Crude Oil is trading lower at $59.95 on bets for US supply gain.

Gold is trading lower in the Asia at 1187.06 while Silver is weak at 16.60

03rd June 2015 – 09:41hrs GMT

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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Daily Market Analysis – 04th June, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Greek deal hopes and Euro zone debt yields lift Euro

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said after talking with the senior EU officials that Greece was close to a deal with its creditors and it would make a payment due to the IMF on Friday.

"It was a good, constructive meeting. Progress was made in understanding each other's positions on the basis of various proposals. It was agreed that they will meet again. Intense work will continue." - Statement given by the European Commission.

Greece has enough cash to repay a €300 million payment due to the IMF on Friday.

German 10-year bond yields climbed to 0.887 percent, after the ECB raised its inflation forecast for the year 2015.

The 10 year US Treasury yields reached at 2.3696% the highest level since Nov 2014.

"The biggest positive about the bond market weakness is that yields’ going higher is a net positive for all of the financials. Higher yields on fixed income translate into higher rates and that increases the net interest margin for financials," - Michael James, MD Wedbush Securities, Los Angeles.

EURUSD is trading at 1.1345 in the European trading session having touched a high of 1.1378

European Central Bank kept its benchmark rates unchanged at 0.05 percent and increased its forecast for inflation in the Eurozone this year to 0.3 percent.

ECB President said bond buying program of 60 billion euros per month will continue till September 2016 with an aim to inject liquidity into the financial system and drive up the Eurozone’s low rate of inflation.

Draghi said "The full implementation of all our monetary policy measures will provide the necessary support to the euro area's economy."

On Greek Debt deal Draghi called for a strong agreement between Greece and its Creditors saying "A strong agreement is one that produces growth, that has social fairness but that is also fiscally sustainable and addresses the remaining sources or factors of financial instability in the financial sector."

In China HSBC PMI climbed to 53.5 the highest level in 8 months as growth remains sluggish in China.

"Overall, growth momentum in China appears relatively weak, weighed down by an ongoing deterioration in manufacturing operating conditions" - Annabel Fiddes, economist at Markit.

In UK the services PMI declined to 56.5 in May, while the UK's economy grew by 0.3% in the first quarter of the year. The UK service sector forms a large part of the economy.

"Additionally, construction firms in UK experienced an upturn in new business growth from April's near two-year low and job creation was the fastest recorded so far in 2015" - Tim Moore, Markit.

Crude Oil is trading lower at $59.56 after Russian Energy Minister's confirmation that the OPEC would not cut output at Friday's meeting.

Gold is trading lower in the Asia at 1182.65 while Silver is flat at 16.46

04th June 2015 – 09:30hrs GMT

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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Daily Market Analysis – 05th June, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Greece delays IMF payment until end of June

Greece moves closer to default and a possible exit from the Eurozone as it will not make a scheduled €300m loan repayment to IMF on Friday.

IMF said on Thursday "The Greek authorities have informed the fund today that they plan to bundle the country's four June payments into one, which is now due on June 30," Gerry Rice, IMF spokesperson, said, citing rules allowing debtor countries to regroup "multiple principal payments falling due in a calendar month".

It is the first time that Greece will postpone a repayment to IMF as Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is facing opposition from his supporters on tough terms associated with the debt deal.

Greek prime minister has come under pressure from his supporters to withhold the payment of €300m due to IMF on June 5. The country is running out of funds and needs the final €7.2bn bailout funds to be able to repay €1.54 billion to IMF by June 30.

Greece PM Tsipras said “Such extremist proposals cannot be accepted by the Greek government. Everyone must understand that the Greek people have greatly suffered over the last five years and some have to stop playing games at their expense.”

EURUSD pulled back yesterday after this decision from a high of 1.1365 to a low of 1.1178 in the Asian trading session today.

Traders are focusing on the US Non-Farm Payroll report due to be released today at 12:30 GMT. Analysts expect a growth of 227K in the job markets for the month of May. Pre-NFP data suggest a strong NFP report today. Analysts forecast for the Unemployment rate is at 5.4%, the lowest level in seven years.

Today’s NFP report will indicate whether Fed is willing to hike interest rates in September 2015. Fed will hike interest rates this year if the NFP data picks up in May.

In UK the Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, the lowest level since 2009. The decision by BoE to hold interest rates was supported by data that showed growth of the UK economy slowed down in the Q1 2015 to 0.3%.

"In UK much will clearly depend on how economic growth, earnings and productivity develop over the coming months, as well as just how quickly inflation moves up later on this year" - Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at IHS Global Insight.

In Canada Ivey PMI rose to 62.3 supported by an increase in employment and inventory levels. Today investors will focus on CAD Full Time Employment Change report due on 12:30 GMT. Analysts estimate that Canada's economy will add 10K jobs in May with jobless rate remaining at 6.8%.

Crude Oil is trading lower at $57.85 on concerns over spiking European yields.

Gold is trading lower in the Asia at 1176.26 while Silver is flat at 16.18

05th June 2015 – 10:16hrs GMT

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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Daily Market Analysis – 08th June, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Strong US Non-Farm Payrolls report boosts Fed Rate Hike in September

In US total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 280,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 5.5 percent. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and health care. Mining employment continued to decline - US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

NFP report indicates that the US job market continues to improve solidly and the health of the US economy is more favorable than the weakness displayed in the Q1 GDP report.

US dollar remained strong across its major counterparts on Friday after the US jobs report boosted speculation of a Fed rate hike in September this year.

New York Fed president Dudley noted that "if the labour market continues to improve and inflation expectations remain well-anchored, then I would expect, in the absence of some dark cloud gathering over the growth outlook, to support a decision to begin normalizing monetary policy later this year".

Greece talks continue to dominate the markets as Greek PM Alexis Tsipras stated "the proposals from the creditors are clearly unrealistic...The Greek government cannot consent to unreasonable proposals that call for devastating measures for pensioners and Greek families. I want to believe that it was a bad negotiating trick".

Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said "the government will not sign a deal that extends this self-feeding crisis of the last 5 years".

In Canada Net Change in Employment for the month of May was +58.9K Jobs while Unemployment Rate remained at 6.8%.

In Japan the economy grew at 3.9% in the first quarter of 2015 beating analyst expectations of a 2.7% growth.

In Germany Factory orders increased by 1.4% in April as German industry looks to experience a boost this year.

Crude Oil is trading higher at $59.02 after OPEC decided to keep its production target unchanged.

Gold is trading higher in the Europe at 1173.24 while Silver is flat at 16.10

08th June 2015 – 09:31hrs GMT

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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Daily Market Analysis – 09th June, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Greece expects to get bailout extension until March 2016

Greece is in talks with its European creditors for an extension of the country's bailout program until March 2016.

Greece is running out of funds as talks continue over agreements between Greece and the European Commission, European Central Bank (ECB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The European Commission has received a new three page proposal from the Greek government to unlock the bailout funds and bridge the differences on critical issues such as the pension and VAT reforms.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said "that a Greek bankruptcy will be the beginning of the end for the Eurozone. If Europe’s political leadership is unable to handle a problem like Greece, which represents 2% of its economy, how will the markets react for countries with much bigger problems, such as Spain and Italy. If Greece goes under, the markets will immediately seek out the next one. If negotiations should collapse, the cost to European taxpayers will be huge”.

He further stated "I think we're very close to an agreement on the primary surplus for the next few years. There just needs to be a positive attitude on alternative proposals to cuts to pensions or the imposition of recessionary measures."

US President Barack Obama said after the end of the G7 summit meeting “We support the efforts to find a path that will allow Greece to implement the necessary reforms and return to growth, in a strong, stable and developing Eurozone”.

EURUSD has reversed its losses post NFP as the European and US bond yields have soared to their highest levels this year.

In Germany Exports and Industrial output rose for the month of April. Exports rose by 1.9% while the industrial production increased 0.9% in April.

"German exporters are increasingly capitalizing on the advantages of a weaker euro, as well as a global demand recovery" - Christian Schulz, economist at Berenberg.

In Australia Business confidence increased for the month of May as the Reserve Bank of Australia made operating conditions easier by cutting interest rates to a record low.

National Bank of Australia has revised its fiscal 2015 GDP forecast to 2.4% but lowered its fiscal 2016 GDP forecast to 2.6%.

Crude Oil is trading higher at $59.19 as weak US dollar boosted demand and pushed global prices higher.

Gold is trading higher in the Europe at 1181.34 while Silver is strong at 16.16

09th June 2015 – 09:25hrs GMT

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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Daily Market Analysis – 10th June, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Yen Soars on Bank of Japan comments

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko said today "The yen is unlikely to fall further on a real effective exchange rate basis because it is already very weak".

The US dollar touched a 2 week low against yen after the comments. USDJPY dropped 200 pips to touch a low of 122.56 in the European trading session.

"There is no asset bubble in Japan at this point. It's hard to conclude decisively that the dollar will continue to strengthen further just because the Fed has done tapering and eyeing raising interest rates" - Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda.

"If you look at the real effective exchange rate, it shows that the yen is already very weak. Even further declines on a real effective exchange rate basis are not likely to happen" - Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda.

Globally Bond yields are increasing as Australian 10-year bonds advanced to 3.05%, New Zealand rates rose to 3.92%, 10 year German bund rates rose to 0.95%, US 10 year 10-year Treasury note was at 2.417%, 10-year U.K. government bond yield increased to 2.119%.

“It’ll take some time for the bond market to recover its composure. The situation in Greece and moves surrounding the U.S. rate hike are still cause for concern” - Yutaka Miura, Mizuho Securities Tokyo.

“Last week we saw a stand-off between the EU authorities and Greece’s government. Volatility in the bond market has added to investor nervousness, not helped by Mario Draghi’s comments last week” - James Barty, BofA-Merrill Lynch.

Greek PM Alexis Tsipras is in Brussels to meet German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande with an aim to achieve a breakthrough in the negotiations and secure the much needed bailout funds for his country.

In US number of job openings has hit the highest level in April as conditions are improving in the US labour market. The US recorded 5.4 million job openings for the month of April.

In UK trade deficit shrank more than expected for the month of April. UK's trade deficit was at 1.2 billion pounds while imports increased by 2.1%.

"In UK although the near-term outlook for the external sector does not look fantastic, at least net trade this quarter looks unlikely to repeat the first quarter's big negative contribution to overall GDP growth" - Vicky Redwood, chief UK economist at Capital Economics.

Crude Oil rallied to reach a high of $61.41 after news that US stockpiles posted a larger than expected decline for last week.

Gold is trading higher in the Europe at 1184.89 while Silver recovers its losses at 16.13

10th June 2015 – 07:52hrs GMT

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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Daily Market Analysis – 11th June, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its Cash rate to 3.25%

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly cut its official cash rate by 0.25% to 3.25% the first reduction since 2011.

"The New Zealand economy is growing at an annual rate around three percent, supported by low interest rates, high net migration and construction activity, and the decline in fuel prices. However, the fall in export commodity prices that began in mid-2014 is proving more pronounced. The weaker prospects for dairy prices and the recent rises in petrol prices will slow income and demand growth and increase the risk that the return of inflation to the mid-point would be delayed" - Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

"With the fall in commodity prices and the expected weakening in demand, the exchange rate has declined from its recent peak in April, but remains overvalued. A further significant downward adjustment is justified. In light of the forecast deterioration in the current account balance, such an exchange rate adjustment is needed to put New Zealand’s net external position on a more sustainable path" - Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

Following the rate cut NZDUSD plunged to a 5 year low of 0.7005 in the European trading session. The move by the RBNZ surprised traders as market was pricing less than 50% chances of a rate cut this morning.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras had late night talks with the leaders of Germany and France to reach a solution and avoid default. Greece needs to repay €1.6bn to the IMF by the end of June.

"It was agreed unanimously that the talks between the Greek government and the institutions should be pursued with great intensity" - German government spokesman.
"We decided to intensify the efforts to bridge the remaining differences and proceed, I believe, to a solution in the coming period" - Greek PM Alexis Tsipras.

Ratings agency S&P has downgraded Greece by lowering its credit rating from CCC+ to CCC citing the delayed International Monetary Fund repayment.

In Japan Manufacturing activity deteriorated in the second quarter of the year as Business Survey Index plunged from 2.4 in the Q1 to -6.0 in the Q2.

"In Japan Core consumer spending fell to the lowest level since last summer in April, and industrial output may well have contracted this quarter. We therefore expect a sharp slowdown in GDP growth" - Marcel Thieliant, Capital Economics.

In UK Manufacturing output declined in April by 0.4% while total industrial production climbed 0.4% from the previous month.

"The British economy is on a firm footing, having grown faster than previously thought in 2014 and with solid, steady and sustainable growth predicted into 2016" - NIESR.

Crude Oil is down to $61.15 after profit taking in the European trading session.

Gold is trading lower in the Europe at 1179.63 while Silver is weak at 15.86

11th June 2015 – 10:14hrs GMT

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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Daily Market Analysis – 12th June, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

IMF leaves Greece bailout talks amid major differences

The International Monetary Fund has walked out of talks with Greece amid major differences over labour market and pension reforms.

“The ball is very much in Greece’s court. There are major differences between us in most key areas. There has been no progress in narrowing these differences recently” - IMF spokesman Gerry Rice.

Donald Tusk, president of the European Council said "There is no more time for gambling. The day is coming. I'm afraid that someone says that the game is over. It is very obvious that we need decisions, not negotiations".

"Time is running out, and the risk of insolvency is increasing by the day. The main losers in that scenario would be Greece and the Greek people" - Jens Weidmann, president of the Bundesbank.

Greece government needs to strike a deal with its European creditors soon and secure the bailout funds. A deal must be signed by the Eurozone finance ministers before the end of the month. If there is no deal then Greece will be in trouble and could fall out of the Eurozone.

Despite major differences with the IMF Greece hopes to clinch a deal with its lenders at a meeting of Eurozone finance ministers on June 18.

"I hope a deal will come very soon, on June 18, when the Euro group takes place" - Flabouraris, aid to Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras.

Greece's Unemployment Rate rose to 26.6% in the first quarter of the year as it continues to struggle with its long term unemployment problem.

In US Retail sales climbed for the month of May to 1.2% indicating that the economy has regained momentum after contracting in the first quarter.

In China Retail sales and Industrial output improved for the month of May. Total production from China grew at 6.1% YoY basis in May while retail sales soared 10.1% from a year earlier.

In Australia Unemployment rate fell to 6.0% in May the lowest level in 12 months. The number of people with jobs rose by 42K to 11.76 million in May, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Crude Oil is down to $60.30 because of a stronger dollar and amid uncertainty in Greece.

Gold is trading lower in the Europe at 1179.25 while Silver is weak at 15.91

12th June 2015 – 09:10hrs GMT

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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Daily Market Analysis – 15th June, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Fears of Greek Default Rise after talks break down

On Sunday night talks between Greek ministers and its European creditors collapsed after a new economic reform proposal submitted by Athens was deemed inadequate to continue negotiations.

Germany has given a clear warning that Greece could leave the Eurozone as officials were unable to reach out a last-minute deal in Brussels.

“The shadow of a Greek exit from the Eurozone is becoming increasingly perceptible. Greece’s game theorists are gambling the future of their country and Europe’s too” - German Vice Chancellor, Sigmar Gabriel.

Greece needs to repay €1.6bn to the IMF by June 30 or risk default, and a possible exit from the Euro. It also needs to repay €6.7bn when Greek bonds held by the European Central Bank fall due in July and August this year.

Greek default and exit from the Euro could trigger some huge moves in the markets and will have a damaging effect on countries that are part of the Eurozone.

"We want to help Greece and keep it in the euro. However, not just time is running out but also, everywhere in Europe, patience. All over Europe there is a growing sentiment: Enough!" - German Vice Chancellor, Sigmar Gabriel.

Greece is under pressure as it also needs another €1.5 billion to pay public sector wages and pensions and it cannot do so without the bailout funds.

The Greek government is blaming its European creditors and IMF who financed its 240 billion Euro bailout program in 2010, for sticking with demands that are economically senseless and politically unacceptable to the Greek citizens.

Manufacturing industry in the Euro zone rebounded by 0.1% in April lower than analyst expectations of a 0.4% gain. Largest contribution came in from Germany and France. A new report from the World Bank forecasts the Euro area's GDP to increase by 1.5% this year.

US Producer Prices rose to 0.5% in May indicating signs of an economic recovery as the world's biggest economy is getting back on track.

In Japan Industrial output rose by 1.2% in April while exports climbed to 0.6% supported by a weaker Yen.

"There's a large majority of bond investors who think the next move by the Bank of Japan is going to be more easing" - Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co.

Crude Oil is down to $59.51 on concerns over a global oversupply versus the demand.

Gold is trading lower in the Europe at 1174.30 while Silver is weak at 15.87

15th June 2015 – 10:11hrs GMT

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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Daily Market Analysis – 16th June, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

RBA expects Australian Dollar to Drop Further

Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes from its June monthly meeting. RBA stated "It was appropriate to leave the cash rate unchanged and to assess information on economic and financial conditions as it become available".

"A lower exchange rate would have an immediate beneficial effect on some sectors such as tourism. It would need to be lower for a sustained period to have a significant effect on large investment decisions in other trade-exposed sectors" - Reserve Bank of Australia.

“The board’s assessment was that the stance of monetary policy should be accommodative. Output growth had continued at a below-trend pace over the past year and would remain a little below trend in the period ahead before picking up to around trend in the latter part of 2016" - Reserve Bank of Australia.

"The current level of the exchange rate, particularly on a trade-weighted basis, continued to offer less assistance than would normally be expected in achieving balanced growth in the economy. A further depreciation therefore seemed both likely and necessary, particularly given the significant declines in commodity prices over the past year" - Reserve Bank of Australia.

AUDUSD is trading lower in the European trading session at 0.7728 following the release of the RBA minutes.

In Greece there is no visible progress in the bailout negotiations with its European partners. Risks of a Greek default and a possible exit from the Euro are running high.

If Greece is unable to reach a deal with its European creditors it could become bankrupt and leave the Eurozone. Major concern for Banks in Greece is that deposit outflows are gathering pace with another €400 million being withdrawn yesterday.

Failing to keep Greece in the Euro after years of negotiations and emergency bailouts of €240bn could mark a blow to the official currency of the 19 member nations.

In Germany Consumer Price Inflation rose to 0.1% last month according to a report released from the Federal Statistical Office.

Switzerland's Producer and Import prices declined 6% YoY basis in May according to the Federal Statistical Office. Swiss retail sales rebounded to a growth of 1.6% in April, after a fall of 2.4% in the previous month.

Crude Oil is down to $60.06 on concerns over global supplies.

Gold is trading steady in the Europe at 1182.64 while Silver is weak at 16.02

16th June 2015 – 09:46hrs GMT

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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Daily Market Analysis – 17th June, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Global Investors await FOMC rate decision

Globally investors are awaiting the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee's two day meeting at 18:00hrs GMT which is expected to create high volatility in the markets.

Analysts expect that Federal Reserve policy makers will raise interest rates in September this year. Market is pricing in a 67% probability of the Fed hiking rates before its December policy meeting.

“We expect Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen to make it clear that the first rate hike is not far off” - Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics.

“They think the economy is doing fine, and the majority on the Fed now favors starting rate hikes soon and going slowly" - James Glassman, J.P. Morgan Chase.

The FOMC is unlikely to change policy in its June meeting, but the statement and comments by Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen in the news conference will be very important.

“This market has been and still is a Fed-driven market and it is fan of clear guidance. If Janet Yellen hints whether the Fed will raise in September or December it would be ultimately good for the markets, even though the very short-term reaction will almost certainly be negative” - Michael Antonelli, R.W Baird & Co.

“The Fed has to start normalizing rates, but there is never a perfect time to do it. The market will adjust to the rate hike cycle if it accepts that the economy is growing and that the Fed will indeed be “gradual” as it moves towards higher rate” - Quincy Krosby, Prudential Financial.

Greece is running out of time to secure bailout funds and avoid a possible default. The Greek government must reach a deal with its European creditors soon or risk an exit from the Eurozone.

The probability of a Greek default is at 75% to 80% according to market strategists, with the chances that Greece will secure a last minute deal are at 50%.

In Germany Investor confidence declined for the month of June. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index dropped to 31.5 amid concerns over the Greek debt default.

In UK Inflation turned positive for the month of May. UK inflation edged higher 0.2%, according to the Office for National Statistics.

In Japan trade deficit increased in May, while imports declined. Trade deficit was 216.0 billion yen in May, while Imports declined by 8.7% to 5.956 trillion yen.

In New Zealand current account deficit decreased to NZ$1.8 billion in the first quarter of 2015.

Crude Oil is trading higher at $61.11 mainly driven by the huge decline in US crude stockpile.

Gold is trading lower in the Europe at 1178.92 ahead of the FOMC statement, while Silver is weak at 15.97

17th June 2015 – 08:54hrs GMT

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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Daily Market Analysis – 18th June, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

FOMC Minutes reflect a Dovish tone

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday kept its benchmark interest rate near zero, as it believes improving US economic growth is likely to warrant one or two interest rate increases before the end of the year.

"Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that economic activity has been expanding moderately after having changed little during the first quarter" - FOMC.

"To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate" - FOMC.

"In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress - both realized and expected - toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation" - FOMC.

Majority of Fed officials are willing to raise interest rates this year, according to a survey released by the central bank. Fed is on track to hike interest rates this year.

"We have to put in place a policy that is appropriate to evolving conditions in the U.S. economy but we can’t promise that there will not be volatility when we make a decision to raise rates" - Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen.

"The timing of a first decision to raise rates is something that should not be overblown whether it is September or December or March, what matters is the entire path of rates, and as I have said the committee anticipates economic conditions that would call for a gradual evolution of the Fed funds rate towards normalization" - Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen.

USD Dollar was weak against its major counterparts after the FOMC minutes signaled a gradual hike path with the EURUSD crossing 1.1350 yesterday and 1.1400 in the European trading session today.

Euro group is meeting in Luxembourg today and Greece has a last chance to secure a deal before the end of this month. Since Greek officials have refused to submit any new proposals hopes for a solution to the Greek debt deal are low.

Greek PM Alexis Tsipras is travelling to Russia to meet Vladimir Putin for some weekend talks.

"Failure to reach an agreement would... mark the beginning of a painful course that would lead initially to a Greek default and ultimately to the country's exit from the euro area and, most likely, from the European Union" - The Bank of Greece.

Meanwhile Germany is making contingency plans for Greece to leave the euro as it believes that Greece and its creditors would reach agreement on the release of new bail-out funds.

In New Zealand economy slowed in the Q1 of 2015. The nation’s economy grew at 0.2% the lowest quarterly growth rate since 2 years. Following the news NZDUSD slipped to a 5 year low of 0.6881 in the European trading session today.

Crude Oil is trading lower at $61.06 mainly driven by a weak US Dollar as Fed left its benchmark interest rate unchanged.

Gold is trading higher in the Europe at 1196.44, while Silver is strong at 16.30

18th June 2015 – 09:01hrs GMT

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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Daily Market Analysis – 19th June, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Eurozone Summit called after failure of Greece Bailout Talks

Euro zone leaders will hold an emergency summit on Monday to avoid a Greek default after finance ministers failed again to bridge the gap between Greece and its European creditors.

The emergency summit will be held in Brussels just eight days before the deadline ends of a Greek default.

IMF, members of Eurozone and European commission all want Greece to implement budget cuts, mainly through pensions and sales-tax increases, which are needed to restore the country’s long-term financial health.

“Those are measures that are not popular, they will not be easy to take and the big question is whether the Greek government is prepared to take them. And if they’re not prepared to do that, then they are taking a big, big risk on the future of Greece” - Jeroen Dijsselbloem, Head of Eurozone finance ministers.

Cash withdrawals from Greek Banks are increasing with almost 2 billion Euros pulled out between Monday and Wednesday after the weekend talks in Brussels failed. Though the Greek government has denied imposing any Capital controls as of now, Greek Central Bank has warned of economic catastrophe if Greece defaults and leaves the Eurozone.

“Greece will be in default, it will be in arrears vis-a-vis the IMF on July 1, but I hope it is not the case, I really do. There is no grace period or two-month delay, as I have seen here and there" - Christine Lagarde, IMF.

"Germany's efforts are directed to Greece remaining in the Eurozone. Where there's a will, there's a way - if the political leaders in Greece show this will an agreement is still possible” - German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

The options that Greece will have whether it is able to reach a deal in the Eurozone summit on Monday or not are:

- No Deal is reached, Greece will default on its payments to the IMF and ECB, and ECB will pull plugs on emergency bank assistance leading to run on Greek banks, capital controls and potential Grexit.

- Deal is reached as Greece agrees to the reforms and is able to secure the bailout funds and stays in the Euro.

- No Deal is reached and Greece still remains in the Euro.

Greek PM is meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin over the weekend. Russian deputy Finance minister has told that there has been no request for money from Greece, and Russia had no resources for such a bailout.

"The Eurozone summit on Monday is a positive development on the road toward a deal. There will be a solution based on respecting EU rules and democracy which would allow Greece to return to growth in the euro" - Greek Prime Minister.

The Swiss National Bank keeps its monetary policy of negative interest rates intact in anticipation that negative interest rates will dampen the value of the Swiss Franc over time.

“Negative interest rates in Switzerland make holding investments in Swiss francs less attractive and will help to weaken the Swiss franc over time" - Thomas Jordan, Swiss National Bank Chairman.

UK Retail Sales rose for the month of May to 0.2% while analyst’s expectations were of a 0.1% decline.

Crude Oil is trading higher at $60.27 after data showed US Crude stockpiles on the decline.

Gold is trading higher in the Europe at 1200.40, while Silver is flat 16.14

19th June 2015 – 09:16hrs GMT

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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Daily Market Analysis – 22nd June, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Greece Presents New Reforms Package in Eurozone summit

"Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is meeting heads of the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund on Monday ahead of a summit of Euro zone leaders later in the day aimed at reaching a deal over debt talks" - Reuters.

"The prime minister presented the three leaders Greece's proposal for a mutually beneficial agreement that will give a definitive solution and not a postponement of addressing the problem" - Greece's government.

According to Credit Suisse analysts the most likely outcome of the EU summit is a deal with a 75 percent probability.

“There is no time to lose. Every day counts. Talks and negotiations must continue so that an agreement is reached" - French President Francois Hollande.

“Either Greece declares itself willing for a viable solution or the country must leave the euro. The euro zone could cope with the consequences of a Greek exit” - Hans Michelbach.

“Workers, the unemployed, young people, the Greek people and the rest of the peoples of Europe will send a loud message of resistance to the alleged one-way path of austerity, resistance to the blackmail and scare-mongering” - Syriza party.

Globally investors are awaiting the outcome of the EU summit and a relief rally in the time of crisis. There seems to be some optimism that a last minute solution will be reached. It is a decision day for Greek PM whether he chooses to accept the deal offered by its European creditors and stay in the Euro.

The economy of Greece is in trouble since 2010 when the bailout program started as its economy has declined by quarter while unemployment is at 26 percent.
As Greece is running out of money it will be unable to repay €1.5 billion payment due to the IMF on June 30.

Bank of Japan has kept its monetary policy unchanged as it would continue with its 80 trillion yen annual asset-buying programme to support the growing economy.

"Exports are picking up and capital expenditure is rising moderately as a trend as corporate revenues improve” - Bank of Japan.

In Canada Inflation increased for the month of May to 0.9% mainly led by an increase in food prices. Retail sales in Canada fell by 0.1% to C$42.5 billion in April due to drop in food and electronics.

Crude Oil is trading higher at $60.44 on hopes of a Greek debt deal.

Gold is trading lower in the Europe at 1194.06, while Silver is stable at 16.16

22nd June 2015 – 10:13hrs GMT

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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Daily Market Analysis – 23rd June, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Eurozone leaders hopeful of deal in next 48 hours

Eurozone leaders have welcomed new proposals for Greek reforms with hopes that a deal can be struck within 48hrs to avoid a Greek default and keep it in the Euro.

Eurozone leaders held an emergency summit in Brussels where they discussed the New Greek proposal which made a significant concession on pension cuts. They said the new proposal looks promising and a deal could be reached in the coming days.

"I am convinced that we will come to a final agreement in the course of this week" - European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker.

"We have a huge amount of work to do in the next 48 hours. We are not at all at the end of the route" - IMF chief Christine Lagarde.

"The proposals offered by Greece today constitute some progress. However, it became clear during our discussions that there is a lot of work to be done and time is short." - German Chancellor Angela Merkel

“In the case of a wide-ranging and complex event like a Greek default, we fear that market players may not know what they do not know about systemic consequences. Things may break that we do not expect to fail, they may fracture in unexpected ways, and linkages that we never suspected may become both apparent and important" - Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics.

"Several thousand pro-European Greeks staged a demonstration in favor of staying in the euro on Monday in central Athens, a day after thousands of leftists had rallied to protest against a new round of cuts" - Reuters.

In Euro zone Purchasing Manager's Index rose to 54.1 for the month of May. In Germany PMI came in at 54 and France PMI was at 53.4

In China HSBC-Markit manufacturing PMI rose to 49.6 for the month of May indicating that business activity contracted for the month.

In New Zealand consumer confidence declined to a 2 year low in the second quarter of the year. The Consumer Confidence Index slid to 113 in the Q2 of the year mainly due to falling diary prices.

Crude Oil is trading lower at $60.19 ahead of the weekly report on US stock of Crude and refined products.

Gold is trading lower in the Europe at 1183.33, while Silver is weak at 15.99

23rd June 2015 – 10:24hrs GMT

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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Daily Market Analysis – 24th June, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Markets Focus on Greek Debt Deal

Greece's PM Alexis Tsipras is in Brussels for crucial talks with its European creditors after it submitted a new proposal to avoid a default and remain part of the Euro.

Greek PM will be meeting Christine Lagarde - head of International Monetary Fund, Mario Draghi - president of European Central Bank, Jeroen Dijsselbloem - Dutch finance minister over issues of tax rises and spending cuts so that he can secure the much needed bailout funds for his country.

Eurozone finance ministers are meeting in Brussels today to discuss the new proposal submitted by the Greece. If the proposal is accepted Greece will get its €7.2bn financial aid and will be able to meet its payment of €1.6bn by June 30.

The funds that are being withdrawn from the Greek banks are in the range of €1 billion a day as investors are worried about a Greek default and the possibility of the Drachma coming back into the nation.

The IMF is unlikely to get back all its money on time as the Greek's long term debt sustainability is in question and whether or not the country will be fully able to recover from its financial problems.

The German chancellor, Angela Merkel is under pressure to hold on the 19 nations that form a part of the Eurozone. The chances are that a deal will be struck and give Greece a relief time but the problems in the Euro are far from over.

“The Euro group has urged the institutions to work closely together with the Greek authorities to start immediately to go into the proposals, getting all the specifics and doing the calculations on them … and all of these with a view if possible to reach an agreement later this week, using the Greek proposals as basis for that” - Euro group President Jeroen Dijsselbloem.

In Germany Business confidence fell for the month of June. The IFO Business climate Index dropped to 107.4 on concerns over slow growth.

Bank of Japan board members are concerned about weak consumer price gains in Tokyo. BOJ is most likely to reach its target of 2% Inflation in the first half of 2016.

"Exports had shown signs of a pick-up on the back of improvement in external demand and of the effects of the euro's depreciation. Corporate results had been improving, partly due to the depreciation of the euro, and business sentiment had also shown movements toward a pick-up" - Bank of Japan minutes.

In US Core Durable Goods Orders rose by 0.5% in May, while total orders for durable goods plunged by 1.8% for the month of May.

Crude Oil is trading higher at $61.57 on expectations for a weekly decline in US crude supplies.

Gold is trading lower in the Europe at 1179.51, while Silver is weak at 15.91

24th June 2015 – 10:00hrs GMT

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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Daily Market Analysis – 25th June, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Markets run out of steam as Greek talks stall again

European stock markets closed lower on Wednesday after Alexis Tsipras, Greece’s prime minister, failed to reach a deal with its creditors in Brussels to secure the much needed €7.2bn bailout funds.

FTSE, DAX, CAC40, IBEX35 all ended the day in red as a Greek official told reporters that the governments proposed measures had not been accepted by its international creditors.

Greece and its European creditors now have less than four hours to reach some agreement, before Eurozone finance ministers resume their own meeting today.

If Greece will fall out of the Eurozone, German Chancellor Angela Merkel would suffer the blow. As the de facto leader of the European Union she is responsible for deciding whether the cost of 240 billion euros is justified for keeping Greece in the Eurozone.

“The chancellor is completely aware of the situation and the consequences, both politically speaking and economically speaking, of a Grexit. I think the Germans now will push with us to find a compromise in the coming days if the Greeks decide to accelerate and work for a credible package" - Emmanuel Macron, French economy minister.

Greece's ruling party has condemned the latest proposals from its European creditors as being blackmail over a bailout deal.

"The lenders' demand to bring annihilating measures back to the table shows that the blackmail against Greece is reaching a climax." - Syriza party's spokesman.

"There's a sense Greek negotiations will extend through the end of the month and markets appear to believe there'll eventually be an accord. An agreement may spur buying momentarily, but the euro will probably be sold as focus shifts to the dollar" - Yasuhiro Kaizaki, Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank.

"The previously unsuccessful attempts to find a solution to the debt crisis in Greece as well as the country's impending default now appear to be dampening German consumers' economic outlook, this raises doubts in consumers' minds, because the consequences of Greece's departure cannot be predicted at the moment" - GfK market research group.

In Germany Business Confidence hit a 4 month low in June. The Business climate Index declined to 107.4 according to the German research institute.

In US the economy contracted in the Q1 due to bad weather, a strong US dollar as US GDP declined to 0.2% annualized rate according to the Commerce Department.

Crude Oil is trading lower at $60.28 after a report showed weekly drop in US crude stockpiles.

Gold is trading lower in the Europe at 1175.81, while Silver is weak at 15.86

25th June 2015 – 08:00hrs GMT

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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Daily Market Analysis – 26th June, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Greek crisis extends into weekend before Sunday's Final Deadline

Greece was unable to close a deal with its European creditors on Thursday, as the crisis extends into weekend before the final deadline on Sunday to avoid a default.

Euro zone finance ministers finished their third round of meeting in a week without an agreement as Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras tries to convince its European creditors and secure the much needed bailout funds for his country.

"The institutions informed us that on a number of issues there is still a wide gap with the Greek authorities. In the meantime, the door is still open for the Greek authorities to accept the proposals tabled by the institutions" - Euro group chairman Jeroen Dijsselbloem.

"The climate is that either by Saturday Greece accepts or on Saturday there will be a discussion about Plan B" - Euro zone official.

"The institutions are going to look again at the two documents - our documents and their own. There will be discussions with the Greek government and we'll continue until we find a solution” - Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis.

"Certain institutions insist in not accepting equivalent measures suggested by the Greek government. The non-acceptance of equivalent measures has never happened before. Neither in Ireland nor in Portugal." - Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras.

Greek's International creditors have rejected the government's plan to end its financial crisis, but they have submitted counterproposals. Time is running out and strong measures would be needed to avoid a default and prevent Greek banks from collapsing thereby limiting any market contagion to other euro area countries.

The new proposal submitted by Greece aims to make €8bn in savings, by new taxes on the wealthy and businesses, VAT increases and a cut in defense spending. But in counter-proposals its European creditors have called for further measures on pensions, higher value added tax for restaurants, and for defense expenditure to be slashed by € 400 million.

"I want to stress that it's not just a matter of Greece, it's a matter of the future of Europe. What's happening now in Greece is going to happen tomorrow in other countries" - Dimmitris Kammenos.

“Without a substantial form of debt relief, which looks unlikely in an initial agreement, Greece’s debt ratio will remain unsustainably high and the crisis will continue.” - Jonathan Loynes, Capital Economics.

In Germany GfK consumer sentiment index declined to 10.1 going into July following a decline in German business morale in June. GfK said that Greece's default and exit from the currency bloc, which had seemed a remote possibility, now appears to be quite realistic.

New Zealand logged a Trade surplus of NZ$350 million for the month of May far surpassing analysts’ expectations. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is unhappy with New Zealand Dollar' strength as the Kiwi Dollar slid to the lowest level in five years versus the US Dollar.

In UK Retail sales growth slowed for the month of June. The British retail sales balance dropped to +29 this month, down from +51 in May.

In US Initial Jobless Claims rose to 271K last week according to the US Department of Labor.

Crude Oil is trading lower at $59.58 as trader’s eye Greece debt talks.

Gold is trading lower in the Europe at 1173.53, while Silver is weak at 15.83

26th June 2015 – 09:39hrs GMT

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.