Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: March 16

As the Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged, the yen increase as expected. The bank calculates the economic effect of its January decision to reduce the rate to negative values. Though this decision does not cause the yen to modulate, however some traders still think that the simplification measures of the Bank of Japan missed out its productiveness. Now, the traders' center of attraction goes out to the Federal Reserve's meeting.

The first support occurs at 113.00 and at 112.20 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 113.80 and at 114.60 subsequently.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is over the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen form a horizontal movement displaying a "Dead Cross". The MACD indicator is in a neutral location. The price is falling.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for USD/CHF: March 18

The Fed's decision to keep the monetary policy unchanged cause the dollar to descend aggressively in opposition to the Swiss franc. As we have anticipated, the regulator was certain to left the policy unchanged as the National Bank of Switzerland hold its meeting on Thursday.

The first support occurs at 0.9660 and at 0.9580 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 0.9750 and at 0.9850 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen forms a descending movement and the Kijun-sen displays a horizontal movement. The downward movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is declining.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: March 22

As the United States and Japan government bonds yields divergence decreased to some extent, the debt market dynamics manifested an averaged demand for the Japanese currency. This also cause to lessen the appeal of the US assets. The USD/JPY pair grew a bit by the end of the trades.

The first support occurs at 111.40 and at 110.60 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 112.20 and at 113.00 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen forms an ascending motion and the Kijun-sen displays a horizontal motion. The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is retrieving.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: March 23, 2016

Sterling continued its low trajectory on Wednesday amidst negative economic data, terrorism attacks in Europe, and rising worry surrounding the Brexit.

The Bank of England announced a stagnant 0.3 percent inflation rate, missing the projected 0.4 percent rise. The news was paired with a looming interest rate cut, which has been standing at 0.5 percent since 2009. The nearest rate increase is in another three years, while the US is expecting at least two rate hikes this year, pushing the dollar upward.

UK’s controversial 2016 budget was also bad news for the ailing pound. Many were disappointed with budget cuts, with Secretary of State for Work and Pensions Duncan Smith resigning on Friday over lower disability benefits.

The pound fell further from its 1.4251 after the inflation announcement.

The first support occurred at 1.4094 and 1.4024 subsequently. The first resistance was at 1.4304 and 1.4375 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is at positive location. The price is falling.

 

[traderpool]

USDCHF Market Review

USDCHF Now hovering between minor resistance and daily strong support
USDCHF moving inside the up channel and looks like formed Flag pattern in H1


Buy If USDCHF Succesfully break the resistance
Sell IF USDCHF succesfully break the flag

Best Regrads

Spoiler: USDCHF

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: March 28

The efficacy of the stimulus measures held by the European Central Bank is drawing near its boundary as stated by the president of the Netherlands Bank, Klaas Knot. He thinks that the ECB monetary policy instruments have been worn out.

The first support occurs at 1.1150 and at 1.1050 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 1.1260 and at 1.1350 subsequently.

The price is along the Ichimoku Cloud and it is over the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen forms a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a descending motion creating a "Dead Cross".

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is correcting.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: March 28, 2016

The British pound slightly recovered from last week’s trading as it hit a daily high at 1.4180, taking advantage of the dollar’s respite. However, the pound’s strength is expected to be short-lived as the uncertainty of the Brexit looms over the market.

A bearish outlook on the pound remains leading to the EU referendum in June. On the other end, a stronger dollar is anticipated in the following days as investors remain hopeful for a rate hike in the near future based on Fed officials’ vague remarks.

The first support occurred at 1.4098 and 1.4028 subsequently. The first resistance was at 1.4149 and 1.4220 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is at a negative location. The price is falling.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: March 29, 2016

The Australian dollar edged up in today’s trading after mixed US data weighed down the dollar.

The US’ core PCE in February posted a dismal growth of 0.1 percent, missing the 0.2 percent forecast. The core PCE price index also performed below expectations as it rose annually by 1.7 percent. Meanwhile, consumer spending was went up by 0.1 percent, meeting government forecasts.

The US economy experienced a 1.4 percent growth in Q4, topping a 1.0 percent forecast, which carried the dollar slightly.

The Aussie dollar, which has risen by about 3.7 percent this year, is expected to continue a slow climb as talks of the currency’s overvaluation is still in the air. Investors are still waiting if the RBA will cut interest rates to keep it from further ascent.

A speech by Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen later today may sway investors to buy back the dollars.

The pair is now facing a ceiling at 0.7572 and can be seen testing 0.76.

The first support was at 0.7519 and 0.7481 subsequently. The first resistance was 0.7585 and 0.7623 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is at a negative location. The price is falling.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: March 29, 2016

Uncertainty on the Brexit was offset by the US’ less than impressive consumer spending, prompting the Euro’s upturn earlier today.

However, the dollar regained its footing as buyers wait for Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s announcement that will hopefully clear up if Fed will move to increase the benchmark rate.

The pair hit a daily high of 1.1219, but pulled back to 1.1200, eliciting a bearish sentiment from investors.

The first support was at 1.1175 and 1.1119, subsequently, while the first resistance was at 1.1243 and 1.1299 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral position. The price is falling.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: March 30, 2016

The extensive demand for the dollar reinforced the pound/dollar pair. The Manufacturing PMI will be issued on Friday and so we propose to focus on it as well as we wait for Bank of England Chairman Mark Carney's performance on Thursday.

The price's first support occurs at 1.4320 and at 1.4240 subsequently. Meanwhile, the first resistance resides at 1.4400 and at 1.4480 subsequently.

A non-confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen display an ascending movement creating a "Golden Cross". The ascending motion will remain until the price is over the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is increasing.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis: March 31, 2016

The dollar experienced remarkable losses. The tremendous tender eloquence of the Fed oppressed the US currency. The external and internal risks has given emphasis by the regulator and stated that there would be a probable policy easing if needed. The statement of the regulator implies an essential enfeeblement of the dollar in coordination with its viable return to the economy stimulation. The ADP for March was issued on Wednesday wherein the report was 194,000 while the previous value was 214,000. The data occurred at the level of 200,000.

Disregarding the growth of risk appetite is not possible which is an aftermath of the growing long positions and high-yield cross-rates of the traders which gave pressure to the euro as a funding currency. The EUR/USD pair stabilized by the end of the trades.

The debt market dynamics correspond to the British currency rectification. In relative with their counterparts, United States and Germany, the 10 years UK government bonds yields decreased which also caused to diminished the appeal of the British assets. On Thursday, the performance of the Bank of England will be the center of attraction. The GBP/USD pair reduced by the end of the trades.

The United States and Japan's yields differential on government bonds reduced from November to February. In Japan, the Retail Trade revenue diminished by 5.4%. The 0% retail sales differential indicator of the Japan and US at the end of January managed to extend as far as level of 2.2% in favor of the latter in February. The USD/JPY pair slightly grew by the end of the trades.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: March 31, 2016

The Japanese Yen expanded in today’s early trading as Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen’s dovish remarks on Tuesday prompted investors to sell their greenbacks. The currency pair hit a daily low of 112.25.

Yellen’s speech on Tuesday to the Economic Club of New York said that caution must be exercised in hiking interest rates, lessening the possibility of a rate increase during Fed’s upcoming meeting in April. However, Yellen is optimistic on the growth of the US economy.

The dollar experienced a rally in the past weeks due to other Fed officials’ hawkish statements that implied they are eyeing to raise the numbers.

The speculation of a rate increase is now expected in Fed’s next meeting in June.

Yellen’s announcement put the Bank of Japan (BOJ) in a more difficult position, which is battling stagnant deflation amidst strong currency. BOJ’s negative interest rates set in January did very little to help the situation.

Eyes are now on BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda to see what monetary tools he will use to ease the problem. The BOJ may be forced to further lower the interest rates during its policy meeting in April.

The first support was at 111.82 and 111.26 subsequently. The first resistance was at 112.62 and 113.19 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is falling.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for USD/CHF: April 1, 2016

After Janet Yellen's speech which supported a discreet strategy towards the interest rates raising, the dollar fell in opposition to almost all currencies. Her comments were presumed by the investors as rhetoric which cause the stock market to grow.

The price's first support occurs at 0.9580 and at 0.9500 subsequently. While it's first resistance resides at 0.9660 and at 0.9750 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays a downward movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal movement. The descending motion will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is declining.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: April 1, 2016

The New Zealand dollar is maintaining a bullish trend against the US dollar despite lack of economic data released in recent days. It appears that the kiwi is only propped up by the dollar’s sell-off and not because of strong economic performance.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) slashed interest rates in early March. Talks of another rate cut is rife as the RBNZ’s policy meeting in April comes nearer.

The bird landed at a daily low of 0.6890 in earlier session but has since bounced back to its days-long attempt of beating the 0.69 level and possibly hover pips below 0.70.

Employment data from the US is scheduled to be released later this session.

The first support is at 0.6853 and 0.6818 subsequently, while the first resistance is at 0.6939 and 0.6973 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is at a positive level. The price is declining.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: April 5, 2016

In the midst of the Construction Sector increase, the Gross Domestic Product of the UK in Q4 was re-assessed upwards. The business activity index occurs at 54.2 contrary to the reported 54.0 which is more than expected. The increase of the pair was finite due to fears about Brexit and the market could not disregard the probable demand on the oil market. The activity of the GBP/USD pair was merely influenced by the oil price.

The first support of price occurs at 1.4240 and at 1.4160 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 1.4320 and at 1.4400 subsequently.

The price is along the Ichimoku Cloud and it is over the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen forms a descending movement and the Kijun-sen displays a horizontal motion creating a "Dead Cross".

The MACD indicator is in a neutral location. The price is revising.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis for AUD/USD: April 6, 2016

After months of rally, the Australian dollar finally experienced a setback as the week started with disappointing data and a slowly recovering US dollar.

Retail sales for the month of February was unchanged from the previous month’s 0.3 percent, a big letdown from the forecasted 0.1 percent increase.

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, retail sales of household goods and department stores posted the highest increases with 0.4 percent, while the food sector decreased by 0.2 percent.

During Tuesday’s monetary policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to hold onto its 2.00 percent interest rate, sending the AUD to the bears. RBA governor said in a statement that the “economy is continuing to rebalance following the mining investment boom.”

Contrary to an expected verbal intervention to weaken the AUD, Stevens did not jawbone the currency which has risen steadily since the start of the year, even sounding dovish toward its appreciating value.

Inflation hit a seven month low of 1.7 percent while the RBA’s target range is from 2 to 3 percent. Trade deficit rose to A$3.410 billion in February from January’s A$3.156 billion. It was projected to shrink to A$2.600 billion.

After days of losses, the USD picked up over the weekend due to a positive nonfarm payroll that further strengthened the labor market.

The pair touched 0.7536 today, recording a five-day low. Heads are now turned to Fed’s meeting later today.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: April 7, 2016

Initially, the main drivers for the pound/dollar pair firstly, is an escape from risks, second is decline in oil prices and lastly is the poor Service PMI in the country. In March the index increase to 53.7 from 52.7 when the market was expecting an increase to 54,0. Apparently, the descending movement was also in the Bonds Market which made the 10-year UK government bonds yield to diminish. The Sterling grew by the end of the trades.

The first support occurs at 1.4080 and at 1.4000 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 1.4160 and at 1.4240 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen form a descending movement. The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is rectifying.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: April 7, 2016

The New Zealand dollar is gaining against the greenbacks after the Federal Reserve indicated that an interest rate increase is highly unlikely this month. The kiwi dollar posted gains hours before the release of Fed’s minutes of its last meeting.

The minutes was released today and showed that the majority of the board members agree that rate hikes should be approached with caution, sending the US dollar to bearish territory after a slight recovery in earlier sessions.

The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) price index released on Wednesday was also a good news for the bird especially for New Zealand’s main export, whole milk powder, whose prices rose by 1.5 percent. Cheddar prices also moved up by 10.5 percent. The entire GDT index climbed by 2.1 percent after last reading’s 2.9 percent fall.

China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner, will release trade data and its Q1 GDP next week. This will inject further volatility into the kiwi dollar.

The pair is now trading at a range of 58 pips. The first support is at 0.6799 and 0.6765 subsequently. The first resistance is at 0.6868 and 0.6902, subsequently.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral position. The price is rising.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: April 11, 2016

The UK investors were perturbed by the poor macroeconomic data. Because of the seasonal correction which came at 1.1%, The Manufacturing Production for February decreased wherein it was way farther than the reported 0.2%. Moreover, from 12.16 billion pounds in January to 11.96 billion pounds in February, the Britain Trade Balance Deficit lessened.

The first support occurs at 1.4080 and at 1.4000 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 1.4160 and at 1.4240 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays a descending movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal motion. The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is retrieving.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: April 11, 2016

The Euro recorded a yearly high of 1.1453 on Sunday after the European Central Bank (ECB) revealed that the board is leaning to another rate cut. The pair is now trading within a range of 1.1395 and 1.1427.

The exchange rate is hovering just above 1.14 level at 1.1411.

The central bank has slashed interest rates to -0.4 percent in early March as it struggles with a negative inflation rate of -0.1 percent, a far cry from the bank’s target of almost 2 percent.

During his speech on Thursday, ECB president Mario Draghi reiterated that they are willing to do “whatever is needed” to lift inflation which is not expected to hit the target until 2018. The central bank will hold a policy meeting on April 21.

Meanwhile, the USD is still weak after Fed implied that a rate increase is unlikely in the upcoming policy meeting. Fed Dallas’ president Robert Kaplan will participate in a question-and-answer session later today and we are waiting for hints of the bank rate’s possible future.

This week is packed with many entities publishing economic reports. US retail sales will be revealed on Wednesday and the consumer price index of the US and Eurozone will be published on Thursday.

Germany, France, and Spain will also release data after data later this week.

The first support is at 1.1373 and 1.1316 subsequently, while the first resistance is at 1.1444 and 1.1501 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is rising.