Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: September 27, 2016


The EUR/USD pair rallied up to 1.1278 during Monday’s trading session after positive US housing date enabled investors to avoid the advancement towards a major resistance range. US new home sales went down slightly in August, dropping at a 609,000 annual rate and decreasing by 7.6% as compared to the data last July, lower than the expected 8.6% decline. The USD was also strengthened by comments from the Fed’s lacker which has stated that there is a strong possibility of an interest rate hike in December. Germany’s IFO survey has indicated that the business environment in the EU has increased significantly in September, going up to 109.5 from August’s 106.2, with increase in both the expectations and assessments sector.


The EUR/USD pair meanwhile continues to trade within its current range, suspending its recovery at main resistance levels, with a descent at 1.1615 points. The currency pair also experienced multiple intraday highs and lows within the 1.1280 trading range, and the upward potential will continue to be suspended as long as the price of the pair remains below 1.1280 points. Divergences can already be seen in the 4-hour chart, and the price continues to remain above a highly bullish 20 SMA which has already went above the 100 SMA. There is a high probability of a bearish trading session on Tuesday if there will be more decreases below the 1.1225 range. If the USD continues to strengthen, then there is a probable bearish trade point at 1.1160.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: September 27, 2016

The Japanese yen strengthened in the middle of risk aversion and is remaining to be a safe haven currency after the Bank of Japan’s statement that the central bank is preparing to implement additional regulations which are intended to increase inflation rates did not hinder the growth of the yen’s value.

The demand for the JPY was supported by the risk-off sentiment, with the price dropping from the present Asian high of 101.00 down to the immediate support level at 100.40 where there is a decreased downward pressure. The 50, 100, and 200 EMAs all declined while the moving averages all went lower in the 4-hour chart. Resistance levels are currently at 101.40 while support levels are at 100.40 points.

The technical indicators for the currency pair are all on the downward trend. However, MACD levels are sustained at the same range which is indicative of positive sellers data. On the other hand, RSI continues to remain over the expected oversold area. The USD/JPY is generally facing a bearish stance, and a closing value at 100.40 might trigger losses and may bring down the pair to the 100.00 range. The USD/JPY may also experience a slight increase if the support for the pair is sustained.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: September 27, 2016

The dollar still hovers in the pressured area compared to other major pairs, seeing that the stocks remains affected regarding the Fed's resolution. Traders are taking some precautionary movements for every execution because of the impact that the U.S Presidential debate might bring.

The pair experienced a downward pressured on Monday because the pound and dollar throw over their acquired profits on Friday. Moreover, the pair also indicated a steep decline against the level of support lied at 1.2900.

The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs sustained a bearish outlook. The resistance is found in the 1.3000 level, support is present in the 1.2900 level.

MACD fail off but give out strength for the sellers. RSI is positioned in the negative condition.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 28, 2016

The EUR/USD pair dropped to 1.190 points during Tuesday’s session as the USD increased its trading value during the session but later lost some of its gains as Fed’s Fischer released a statement saying that as much as he does not want to have low interest rates, he wouldn’t want it to increase as much. However, Fischer also noted that he has no information with regards to the date of the expected interest rate hike from Fed. The last trading session exhibited active volatility levels, especially with Hillary Clinton’s impressive performance during the first US Presidential Debate. However, the dropping bank equities in London’s trading session affected the trades on Tuesday.

The USD also increased due to the added intraday support from highly positive macroeconomic releases, particularly with the improved Conference BC Confidence Index which is now at 104.1 from last month’s 101.8. The expansion rate of business activities also increased after a three-month dormancy, according to preliminary Markit Services and Composite PMI data. Services PMI went up to 51.9 in September as compared to August’s 51.0, while Composite PMI data also increased to 52.0 points from last month’s 51.5 points.

The EUR/USD is still primarily in the negative territory, albeit with a persistence neutral stance. The 4-hour chart for the currency pair has no clear indicators, with prices recovering after a slew of horizontal moving averages and technical indicators going above the middle range.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: September 28, 2016

The NZD/USD pair decreased in value after a three-day high, dropping back to the 0.73 trading range in relation to its USD counterpart. The currency pair dropped by -0.26% or 0.7284 points, hovering dangerously close to the 0.7279 trading lows during the last session. The NZD was unable to sustain its bullish bearing, mostly due to sustained weakness in oil prices and a strengthening of the USD.

The commodity currency suffered from significant decreases in oil prices caused by uncertainties in the oil output agreement between non-OPEC and OPEC oil producers. Meanwhile, the greenback was boosted by positive consumer confidence data and PMI data.

The NZD remains to be the worst currency performer during the trading session, especially now that traders are waiting for the release of China’s consumer sentiment numbers. The US durable goods data will also be released later today, as well as the weekly crude stockpiles report from the EIA.

The next resistance point for the NZD/USD pair is projected to be at 0.7297, with a possibility of extending gains up to 0.7332. Meanwhile, the downside support is expected to be at 0.7267 points to 0.7220 points.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: September 29, 2016

The EUR/USD pair had an ambiguous stance during Wednesday’s trading session as investors and traders are waiting for statements coming from the European Central Bank and and the Federal Reserve. However, none of the two central banks are expected to release new modifications, which leaves the EUR/USD pair at a lower value than the previous trading sessions. Fed Chair Janet Yellen has already stated that there is no definite period as to when the Federal Reserve would be increasing its interest rates. On the other hand, ECB Chair Mario Draghi has stated that the central bank’s negative rates are not the ones to be blamed for problems in the European banking sector.

The Durable Goods Orders data came out without much activity, even falling below the expected data release in August. The DGO report has also showed that capital equipment shipments had already decreased in value four months in a row, and investors are expecting that this will lead to a drop in Q3 GDP rates.

In general, the EUR/USD pair has been struggling to make progress during this week. The pair’s 4-hour chart indicates that its value has been unable to go above its moving averages. Momentum levels are expected to go south and below the 100 level. Meanwhile, RSI indicators are in the 47-point range and is leaning towards the negative. Selling interest are now below 1.1190 and this could make the currency pair go even lower at 1.1120 during the next trading sessions.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: September 29, 2016

BOE deputy Shafik’s dovish statements has caused the sterling pound to be weighed down, after Shafik stated that the central bank requires more economic stimulus, and the bank is willing to widen its asset purchase program if ever the need arises.

The technical trend for the currency pair is mainly bearish since a lot of sellers are holding fast to their current positions. The GBP/USD exhibited volatile and low trading points during Wednesday’s session, with the price staying within the 1.3000 range for buyers. The pair’s growth was somewhat hindered by a bearish 50 EMA, while the 50, 100, and 200 EMA are still steadily declining. Resistance levels are currently at 1.3000 while support levels are at 1.2900.

MACD levels are presently in the negative side, with MACD’s growth indicative of a weakening of sellers’ positions. Meanwhile, RSI levels are expected to go within the overbought range. The general outlook for the currency pair is bearish, with an expected drop towards the 1.2950 range. However, speculators are also expecting an upsurge to the 1.3100 trading range.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: September 30, 2016


The EUR decreased its value after Germany’s Unemployment Change report turned out to be far weaker than what traders and investors had expected. Meanwhile, the USD strengthened slightly after hints that the Fed might possibly implement an interest rate hike before the year ends.


The EUR/USD pair meanwhile had its support levels at 1.1200 points and had a lackluster performance during Thursday’s trading session. The currency pair’s price levels remained inactive at the 1.1200 - 1.1230 during the London trading session. The 50, 100, and 200 moving averages remained on neutral territory, with resistance levels at 1.1250 and support levels currently at 1.1200.


The MACD is currently at the center of the range. If the MACD returns to negative territory, then this will signal a strengthening of sellers, while a move into the positive territory is an indicator of a possible takeover of buyers in the financial market. The currency pair’s RSI levels remain at the neutral range.


Should sellers be able to force down pricing levels below the 1.1200 range, then the currency value of the EUR/USD is expected to go up at 1.1150. However, it is also highly possible that this would even go as far as the 1.1250 trading range.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: October 3, 2016


The AUD/ USD pair closed the last trading session in the higher trading range but was still unable to go beyond the 0.7700 range, with selling interest rates going stronger as compared to last week. The currency pair has now settled between the 0.7450 - 0.7700 trading range. The pair temporarily fell below 0.7600 last Friday but was able to recover almost immediately due to Fibonacci support.


The volume of the Asian trading session for this week is expected to be somewhat limited due to China’s golden week. The daily charts are still exhibiting an upward trend, with prices still above the 20 SMA. Momentum levels are now consolidated above the 100 level and RSI indicators are seen to go beyond 56.


The 4-hour chart now has a limited upward trend, especially since prices are having difficulty exceeding above the 20 SMA. On the other hand, other technical indicators are losing their momentum and is expected to go south. Monday’s session might be marked by a slight downward extension at the 0.7600 level.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: October 4, 2016

The USD/JPY pair surged to attain its two-week high of 102.27 points as a result of positive risk appetite after easing Deutsche Bank issues and OPEC oil statements increased the possibility of an interest rate hike in December.

Meanwhile, the Japanese yen is still in the bottom rung of its trading range for the sixth straight session, its longest bottom-trend streak since March. The currency pair bottomed out at the 100.08 range last week after an increase in oil prices market risk-ons, as well as easing in Deutsche Bank concerns.

Moreover, the Japanese yen is most likely to increase its selling power in the Asian session today after foreign QE talks by the Bank of Japan is seen to be gaining momentum. The currency pair is now dependent at the wider market sentiment. The market will now be focusing on the shares of banking firm Deutsche Bank, which has previously ended Monday’s trading session with marginal losses.

If the USD/JPY pair manages to break above the 102.65 trading range, then this would expose the pair to the 102.78 range and go beyond an expected hurdle at 103.54 points. However, if the pair would go below its support levels of 102.00, then this could trigger a movement towards 101.57 points, which would then lead to lows at 101.00 points.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: October 4, 2016

The sterling pound was hit hard during the last trading session after UK Prime Minister Theresa May released a statement saying that the UK will be starting its formal process of leaving the European Union this coming March 2017. The GBP/USD pair is aligned fundamentally and technically, and analysts are expecting a retesting of the pair at 1.2796 points. The currency pair is now in full bearish stance.

The GBP/USD’s inner trend line, bearish channels, 38.2, L3, and multiple rejection points at POC 1.2915-30 might cause the pair’s price to become rejected if another retracement occurs. However, if the GBP/USD would extend at the 1.2845 trading range, then there is a possibility that the pair would go beyond the 1.2796 trading range.

In order to maintain its short-term bearish stance, then the currency pair must be able to stay below the 1.2950 trading range.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: October 4, 2016

The EUR/USD pair hit all-new lows after succumbing to pressure during the New York trading session as the US dollar received a boost from positive US economic data. The EUR/USD pair was able to break through its range from the past session and was able to approach the 1.12 trading range but also managed to have support just a few pips beyond the psychological level.

September saw the ISM Manufacturing Index increase by up to 51.5 points from August’s 49.4 points. The ISM index also went into the contraction range for the first time since February and went above the expected 50.3 range. Market sentiment surrounding the Deutsche Bank issue also somewhat stabilized during Monday’s session even as the German market was closed due to a holiday. European indices also increased due to an upsurge in oil prices.

Technical support levels, particularly immediate support levels, are seen at 1.1183 points in the 100-day SMA, 1.1160 in the 200-day SMA, and 1.1122 points at the September and August lows. Resistance levels are at 1.1250 points for the September highs, 1.1283 points for the September 15 high, 1.1326 for the September 8 high, and 1.1365 for the August trading high.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: October 6, 2016

The CAD increased its trading value following the release of the US crude oil inventories data this week, which portrayed a drop of 3 million barrels. The drop in the weekly data for stocks was unexpected since forecasts showed a significant increase after consecutive drops in the data. The CAD has been previously on the lower rung during the first few hours of the trading session after the data released showed a decrease in trade deficits from August’s $1.47 billion.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada is not yet expected to cut back on its interest rates in spite of the ambiguities portrayed in the recent trade data. This is because the BoC is still awaiting the fiscal stimulus data from the Canadian government and will keep the CAD from further appreciation by using dovish stances. Non-resource exports were not able to increase and the direction of oil prices are still uncertain after the OPEC’s cuts in its production will still be subjected to another review in another meeting in Vienna.

The USD/CAD pair decreased by up to 0.267 points during the last trading session. The currency pair is presently trading at 1.3166 points following an increase in oil prices. The CAD initially traded over the 1.32 price levels prior to the release of the crude stocks data but eventually plummeted to 1.3166.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: October 6, 2016


The GBP/USD pair is now trading within the 1.2370 range after the pair failed to take out in the 50-MA during the North American session and the Asian trading session. The two-year treasury yields increased by two points as a result of investors’ reaction to a heightened probability of an interest rate hike this coming December due to the positive data release of the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.


The GBP/USD is generally on the downside since market players are generally worried about a possible “hard brexit”. Should the GBP/USD break above the 50-MA level of 1.2751 points, then this could increase the possibility of a break into the 1.2789 trading range, which would then cause the currency pair to target the 1.2836 level of the 100-MA. However, if the GBP/USD continues to decrease, then this could cause the pair to break below the support levels of 1.2685, which was the pair’s lowest reach during the last trading session, and can also lead to the 1.2590 range.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: October 6, 2016

The USD/JPY pair is now trading at the 103.65 range after its value reverted back to the middle of the 103 range. The currency pair went back into the red zone in the middle of the Asian trading session but was still able to go well above the 103 trading handle. The USD/JPY closed down the recent session at 103.45 points, decreasing by -0.07%.

The currency pair is now collecting its rallies into per-month highs after consecutive US fundamentals all turned out to be on the positive territory, increasing the possibility of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve during the latter part of 2016. The release of the US non-farm payrolls data this coming Friday is seen as a determinant as to whether the Federal Reserve will be pushing through with its interest rate hike in December.

The USD/JPY’s resistance levels are now at the 103.66 range. If the currency pair would be able to break through this particular range, then the pair could go within the 103.89 range and could possibly break through 104.14. However, if the pair further decreases its value, then it could hit immediate support levels at 103.00, 102.68 and even lower at the 102.25 range.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: October 10, 2016

The NZD/USD pair had unchanged rates during the last session at 0.7168 points with a possibility of daily lows at 0.7149 points. The NZD/USD is expected to slow down in spite of a diminishing trade activity surrounding the USD, and the negative impact of lowered oil prices to the NZD.

The financial market in general has also moved towards the sidelines as different market players are now closely monitoring the second US presidential debate. The US market holiday is also expected to further cause stagnation in this particular currency pair.

Investors are now awaiting a series of statements to be released by the Federal Reserve, as well as Chinese trading data and CPI data which are all due within this week. These data are all expected to have an impact on the NZD/USD pair.

The resistance levels for the NZD/USD is currently at 0.7207 at the 100-DMA, with a significant possibility of a gain extension at 0.7521 at the 20-DMA. From there, the pair could possibly extend its range at 0.7275 at the 50-DMA. On the other hand, the pair’s current support levels is located at its two-month low of 0.7110, with a possibility of lowering at 0.7084 and 0.7064 points.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: October 11, 2016

The GBP/USD pair dropped from its peak of 1.2440 points and has now recorded a new low during the New York trading session. The pair is now trading within the 1.2360 range and its slight recovery during the earlier part of the London session caused the GBP/USD to retain its downward direction in the middle of little market volatility.

The direction of the currency pair was driven by the movement of the USD due to lack of any relevant economic data released during the last trading session. The USD movement has recently been benefitting from an ease in risk aversion following the results of the US Presidential Debate. On the other hand, the sterling pound is experiencing downward pressures due to post-Brexit uncertainties, causing the GBP to decrease further during the last trading session.

The 4-hour chart for the currency pair shows that the GBP/USD is starting to bounce back from Friday’s sudden decline even though technical indicators are still a long way from fully recovering. The 20-SMA has also decreased further and is now at 1.2560. The pair reached 1.2476 points, its highest point reached after its most recent decline. The GBP/USD must go beyond this range and reach up to 1.2520 and 1.2600 in case the USD succumbs to selling pressure.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: October 11, 2016

The AUD/USD pair’s 50-MA level for the recent trading session reached the 0.7608 trading range, with trades now at 0.7590 in spite of the widening of the 10-year yield spread for AU-US. High yielders further reaped benefits during the second quarter of yields in the international market. The 10-year yields for Australia increased by 7 bps while the 10-year US yields increased by 3 bps.

Analysts are stating these higher yields could have negative impacts on all aspects of the risk spectrum since this could lead to a drop in high-yielding currencies such as the NZD.

Should the AUD/USD recover, then the bid tone recovery could go up into the resistance level of 0.7608 for the 50-DMA and could possibly go further up to 0.7626 for the 10-DMA. However, if the previous support levels of 0.7580 would be reached by the pair, then this could lead to a possible drop to 0.7553, with sell-offs further extending to 0.7526 which is the 100-DMA level for the GBP/USD pair.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: October 11, 2016


The NZD/USD weakened during the last trading session after the USD regained some of its lost value, with the demand now testing within the 0.71 range. The USD remained sturdy throughout the Asian trading session due to the US treasury yields increase caused by rising oil prices. This also heightened the possibility of an interest rate hike this coming December, along with an exhaustion on the part of central banks and a deepening of the yield curve on the international market.


The currency pair is now dependent on the market sentiment, particularly now that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Assistant Governor is set to deliver a statement with regards to the country’s low inflation rates.


Since the NZD/USD is already trading lower than the 50-DMA and 100-DMA levels, an acceptance rate lower than 0.71 might have a significant impact on the bulls. Should the currency pair break through the support levels of 0.7049, then this could possibly reveal the 0.70 handle. On the other hand, an increase from Friday’s low of 0.7110 might lead to a steeper retracement level to 0.7155 for the 100-DMA and 0.7204 for the 10-DMA.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: October 12, 2016


The EUR/JPY pair was able to retain its support on the 50-DMA and expected to incur additional losses in the light of an expected increase in the USD/JPY pair. The cross-currency pair is now at 114.40 points, going above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 114.09 points. The EUR/JPY dropped yesterday to 114.01 points after constant rejection in the 100-DMA in the past week.


All eyes are on Bank of Japan as BoJ Governor Kuroda is slated to make a speech today. Meanwhile, European industrial production data is also expected to be released today. But the major announcement for today will be likely coming from the Federal Reserve’s Esther George and William Dudley, who is expected to announce that there is a huge possibility for an interest rate hike in December.


For the cross-currency pair’s technical indicators, the pair’s break through at 114.09 could possibly lead to a low of 112.79, which could then lead to a leveling of 112.00. On the other hand, an increase over the 10-DMA of 144.76 could cause another break at the 5-DMA of 115.05, which could ultimately lead to a confluence of 115.60.