Daily Market Analysis from Hotforex Broker

[HFM]

Date : 6th October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th October 2016.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved broadly higher, (Nikkei closed up 0.47% 16,899) with the recent pick up in oil prices is adding support and the front end WTI future may be down slightly on the day, but remains comfortably above USD 49 per barrel. U.S. stock futures are down as the dollar rises, but the FTSE 100 future is up, with the ongoing slide in the pound helping to underpin foreign demand. ECB tapering talk meanwhile is likely to continue to push up yields and weigh on Eurozone stock markets. Against this background the release of the ECB’s account of the last policy meeting will be watched carefully. The European calendar also has German manufacturing orders at the start of the session. Switzerland releases inflation data as well as the KoF autumn economic forecast and the U.K. has labour cost data.
FX Update: The main dollar pairings have eked out narrow ranges so far today. EURUSD has remained in a narrow orbit of 1.1200, while the yen’s recent spell of underperformance, which has been in play since mid last week following the BoJ’s announcement of a new monetary policy framework, has come to a pause today. USDJPY and EURJPY have so far remained under their respective one-month highs seen yesterday at 103.67 and 116.25. The Australian dollar has traded softer despite a narrower than expected Australian trade deficit in August, driven by firmer exports and flat imports, which, following strong figures on retail sales and building approvals earlier in the week, has added to signs that Q3 GDP will be better than previously thought. Higher commodity prices are also pointing to further declines in the deficit in the months September and October. Market focus has squared on tomorrow’s U.S. jobs report release, however, as it carries make or break potential for prospects of a Fed rate hike before year-end. Following yesterday’s U.S. data releases, Fed funds futures were showing a probability for a December hike of just over 60%.
US Data Reports: Revealed a modest setback in the August trade deficit to a $40.7 bln gap that can be attributed to a one-off service import boost from the Brazilian Olympics, alongside small upside surprises across the orders, shipments, inventory and equipment data in the August factory goods report, and a hefty September ISM-NMI pop to an 11-month high of 57.1. We also saw a restrained 154k September ADP rise. The mix left the Q3 GDP estimate at 2.5%, though with offsetting component tweaks in trade, equipment spending and inventories, alongside an unchanged 170-5k September payroll estimate for Friday with divergent signals from an ISM-NMI job index pop to 1-year high of 57.2 alongside a lean ADP reading.
Fedspeak: Lacker: said there’s a strong case to increase rates more rapidly, in his comments at Marshall University. That is in line with his remarks on Tuesday on The Economic Outlook, October 2016, and is consistent with what he, and other Fed officials, including Chair Yellen, have indicated since late August. He believes the factors that have limited inflationary pressures have largely played out, with the result that prices are moving toward the Fed’s goal. Meanwhile, he noted that the aggressive use of monetary policy to stimulate the economy can back-fire, in terms of stoking inflation, from whence he outlined the benefits and critical role of a pre-emptive policy approach. Lacker is not a voter this year or in 2017.

Main Macro Events Today

• 
  
  
  • US Initial Jobless Claims – Expected to creep up to 256K this week from 254k last week.

• 
  
  
  • ECB MPM minutes – Due to be released at 11:30 GMT. Details of the latest Governing Boards meeting, with factors that influence economic conditions and the factors impacting their interest rate deliberations and decisions.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 7th October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th October 2016.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are broadly lower, with mainland Chinese bourses the notable exception. The Yen strengthened ahead of today’s U.S. jobs data, which weighed on exporters and the ongoing rise in oil prices failed to lift sentiment. the front end WTI future is now trading above USD 50 per barrel. U.S. stock futures are also down, but the FTSE 100 future is moving higher, underpinned by another slide in the pound, as France’s Holland reaffirmed the official EU stance, that access to the single market cannot be separated from the EU’s other key principles, including freedom of movement. So both sides are going into the official negotiations with a hard line stance and while part of this may be posturing it is clear that EU officials fear that abandoning the four key freedoms would set a dangerous precedent and could open the floodgates to a discussion on the general principles of the EU and fundamentally threaten the union, which will make any concessions to the U.K. difficult. U.S. jobs data will overshadow European data releases, which focus on production numbers from Germany, France and the U.K.
FX Update: The pound saw a dramatic dive and recovery during the early Asia session. There seems to be a degree of uncertainty about what the low was. Reuters reported a low of 1.1378 in Cable, since revised to 1.1491. The pair since recouped above 1.2450, which is still two big figures below levels seen at the New York close. The catalyst were remarks from France PM Hollande, who demanded that Britain suffer the consequences of leaving the EU, saying “it is not possible … to leave the EU and get the advantages without the obligations,” otherwise “we would jeopardise the fundamental principles of the EU.” Merkel, too, has this week indicated that the EU fundamental principles, including free movement of people, would be prioritized in upcoming Brexit negotiations. The pound’s outsized movement was greatly exacerbated by the sheer illiquidity of the sterling market in Asian hours. There is also talk of a “fat finger” trade amid the scramble of the interbank market to cover stop and options-related orders.
German industrial production jumped 2.5% August. Much more than expected and even if the strong number is not a total surprise after much better than anticipated manufacturing orders numbers yesterday, and the rise in the Ifo, the data still restores confidence in the German recovery. Especially after the weak July numbers, when production fell back -1.5% m/m, which is more than compensated by the uptick in August. Capital goods production bounced back with a rise of 4.7% m/m, after falling -4.0% m/m in July and the data confirms that developments in the Eurozone mirror that in the U.K. albeit with a month delay as the initial dip on the Brexit referendum was followed by a strong rebound. As even the BoE highlighted though, one shouldn’t put too much faith in these numbers and already dismiss any negative impact from the Brexit scenario, as the long term fallout is still very unclear, especially as both sides are heading for tough divorce negotiations. In Germany at least the volatility over the summer was also due to the unusual constellation of holidays across the states.
ECB Ready to Taper? ECB tapering speculation has spooked markets this week and the panic reaction to a report that merely said officials are nearing consensus to phase out asset purchases gradually rather than letting the program end abruptly highlights the challenges Draghi and Co. face going ahead. Later ECB’s Constancio is reported as saying that the ECB near taper consensus not correct, according to a MNI report, and QE will go on until inflation is back on track to its target. He said further than the council hasn’t discussed anything on QE.

Main Macro Events Today

• 
  
  
  • US Non-Farm Payroll – Consensus median expectations from Bloomberg and Reuters polls have new jobs at 172,000, Unemployment unchanged at 4.9% and earnings up to 2.5%.

• 
  
  
  • UK GDP estimates – The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) produce a monthly GDP prediction ahead of official government figures. Last month it was 0.3%. Could be more significant today following the volatile moves in GBP and UK stock markets.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 10th October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th October 2016.

Main Macro Events This Week​

United States: Markets will remain nervous amid rising prospects for a Fed rate hike later this year, and in the aftermath of the Sterling “flash crash” on Friday where GBP-USD dropped 6% and moved seven big handles, from 1.2623 to a low of 1.1841., Treasury yields subsequently jumped sharply higher after the September jobs report was deemed good enough to support FOMC claims that the case for a rate hike is strengthening. And though slightly disappointing, and not strong enough to warrant a tightening as soon as November, the 154k rise in September nonfarm payrolls, the increases in the workweek and earnings, and the rise in the labor market participation rate, all added up to increased chance for a 25 bp tightening in December. Fed funds futures are suggesting about a 65% probability of a hike (and only about 15% for action in November). The FOMC minutes (Wednesday) to the September 20, 21 policy meeting will be widely read, but may not really show anything new. There are several important data reports this week that should further underpin tightening forecasts. September retail sales (Friday) are expected to rise a solid 0.7% overall, and 0.5% excluding autos. Trade prices are likely to remain weak, however, with declines of 0.1% for both import and export prices. JOLTS are a Fed favorite, so the August numbers will be scrutinized. Other data this week includes the Consumer sentiment, the Treasury budget, and business inventories. Producer prices are projected to rise 0.3% and Annual rates should rise to 0.8%.
It’s earnings season again too, with Alcoa in its typical leadoff role (Tuesday). Also on tap are Citigroup, JPMorgan, PNC Financial Services, and Wells Fargo (Friday). Fedspeakers this week include Chair Yellen who will be speaking at the Boston Fed’s conference (Friday). Evans andKashkari will be at the podium Tuesday. Dudley and George are on the slate for Wednesday, while Harker and Kashkari speak Thursday, with Rosengren on deck for Friday. PPI for September will also be of interest since inflation is one of the keys to the Fed’s policy decisions.
Canada: Thanksgiving day holiday on Monday. Housing starts (Tuesday) are expected to improve to a 190.0k annual growth rate in September. The new home price index (Thursday) is seen growing 0.2%. There is nothing on the docket from the Bank of Canada this week, but the October 19 announcement and Monetary Policy Report loom.
Europe: ECB taper talk has been dominating Eurozone markets of late and overshadowing better than expected data releases. The highlight of the data calendar this week will be German ZEW investor confidence (Tuesday), which is a difficult call amid ECB tapering talk, U.S. rate hike fears, the slump in GBP and the prospect of a hard Brexit, which counterbalance a surprisingly strong Ifo and jumps in orders and production data in August. Final inflation numbers from Germany (Thursday) and France (Wednesday) are expected at 0.5% y/y. Eurozone industrial production data for August (Wednesday) is likely to show a strong rebound from the -1.1% m/m dip in July, judging by national data.
UK: The overriding focus will remains on Brexit matters. So far, all that’s materially happened is that the UK has voted to leave the EU, but hardline Brexit negotiation stances of both the EU and UK have come into sharp form over the last week. The calendar is very quiet this week. BRC retail sales for September (Tuesday) and the RICS house price index for September (Thursday) highlight, but will be overlooked by sterling markets.
China: reported on Saturday a dip to 52.0 in the September Caixin services PMI from 52.1 in August. It was 50.5 a year ago. On this week’s docket is September loan growth and new yuan loans (during the week). Loans are seen edging up to a 13.1% pace from 13.0% previously. The September trade report (Thursday) should reveal a widening of the surplus to $55 bln from $51.1 bln previously. September CPI (Friday) is expected at 1.7%% y/y from 1.3%, while PPI should come in at -0.1% y/y from -0.8%.
Japan: is closed Monday for Health-Sports Day. The calendar kicks-off on Tuesday with the August current account data which is expected to show an decrease in the surplus to JPY 1,4000 bln. August machine orders (Wednesday) are seen plunging 4.0%. The August tertiary index (Thursday) is penciled in at -0.1% and Friday brings September PPI, which is forecast to rise to -3.3% y/y from -3.6%.
Australia: The calendar is thin as well. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Financial Stability Review is the highlight (Friday). As for economic data, housing investment (Tuesday) is expected to fall 1.0% in August after the 4.2% drop in July.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 11th October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th October 2016.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly higher, (Nikkei 225 closed up 0.97%) underpinned by a weaker Yen and the renewed uptick in oil prices yesterday after Russia signalled willingness to join the OPEC output cut. The front end WTI future fell back from highs, but is still trading above USD 51 per barrel. Hong Kong markets underperformed as developers came under pressure amid reports of restrictions in some Chinese cities designed to cool house price inflation. US and European stock futures are also down, signalling some correction on European bourses after yesterday’s oil induced rally. Bund futures meanwhile extended losses during after hour trade and comments from ECB’s Visco that an exit from QE would be data dependent will do little to dampen tapering concerns. ECB’s Mersch meanwhile repeated limits to negative interest rates. Still, with GBP remaining under pressure and inflation risks rising Gilts could well continue to underperform and the 10-year cash yield rise further above 1%. Released overnight, BRC retail sales showed the same store reading lifting 0.4% m/m in September, after a sharp drop in August. Otherwise the calendar focuses on German ZEW investor confidence, which is expected to improve further in October (see below)
FX Update: The dollar continued to trade firmer. EURUSD logged a low of 1.1119, putting last Friday’s two-month nadir into reach, while USD-JPY’s rally extended to a peak of 104.04, swinging last Thursday’s six-week peak at 104.16 into scope. Fed tightening expectations having been keeping the dollar bid. Our post-employment data survey of Fed watchers found all respondents expecting a 25 bp rate hike at the December 13-14 policy meeting. Japanese markets and yen market liquidity returned today following yesterday’s public holiday. The yen traded mixed, losing ground to the dollar and euro, buy rising versus the Australian dollar and pound. Sterling came back under the cosh amid continued Brexit angst. The London Times headlined that a “hard Brexit” could cost GBP 66 billion a year.
EU not yielding to May’s “threat”. The U.K. may have hoped that by making clear that Prime Minister May is willing to risk losing access to the single market in order to achieve control over migration from other EU countries the rest of the EU may prompt a softening of the official EU stance, but it is clear that there is no appetite for a change in the treaties and a splitting of the EU’s four freedoms, which include both single market access and the free movement of labour. So the official EU stance remains unchanged to what if was before the Brexit referendum, when then Prime Minister Cameron tried to get further concessions for the U.K. Indeed considering the likely consequences of a change to the EU’s fundamental principles that were enshrined in the treaties, the EU clearly stands to lose more both economically as well as politically, if it were to set a precedence and abandoned the spirit of the treaties to keep the U.K. in the single market.
Fedspeak: Evans (long time dove) speaking in Sydney overnight – Risk of inflation not returning to the FED’s 2% “within acceptable time period” and not rising to 2% goal until roughly 2020. US not yet at full employment and “would not be surprised if there were a US rate hike in December”. The US Economy is on a strong footing, recent jobs report was a pretty good number the Election is not a bar to November hike, …but would “prefer to wait for more economic data”. Strong USD is a challenge for manufacturers, but has lowered import prices.


Main Macro Events Today

German ZEW Economic Sentiment

German ZEW investor confidence for October is a difficult call amid ECB tapering talk, U.S. rate hike fears, the slump in GBP and the prospect of a hard Brexit, which counterbalance a surprisingly strong Ifo and jumps in orders and production data in August. On balance expectations are for a rise in the headline reading to 4.0, which would confirm the ongoing improvement in sentiment with the number of those seeing strengthening growth ahead rising. Much will depend, however, on when the answers came in and an upside surprise (6.0+) is still possible.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 12th October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th OCTOBER 2016.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed south, with investors pondering the U.S. rate outlook and the slump in Samsung Electronics Co. adding to pressure. The Nikkei closed down -0.93% at 16, 867) Oil prices are slightly higher on the day, but the front end WTI future is holding below USD 51 per barrel amid scepticism about broad output cut agreements. US and UK stock futures meanwhile are higher, the latter despite a jump in the Pound. The European calendar has final French inflation data for September as well as Eurozone production numbers for August, with the latter expected to show a strong gain following very strong national data.

FX Update: Cable made a 31-year closing low in London at 1.2226. Notably this was also the low of the day, which can be taken as a technically bearish indication. Cable is 1.2264 bid presently, having plummeted another 200 pips to lows of 1.2085 and remains about 1.2% up on the day. The pairing is down by 5.4% w/w, 8.2% m/m and off by nearly 17% on the year-to-date. Dollar strength has been a factor in the mix in recent days, aside from Brexit-related sterling under performance (which has seen the currency to fresh lows versus the euro, yen and other currencies). The rebound from under 1.2100 was sparked by news, reported initially by Sky, that PM May has backed down and will allow parliament to scrutinise the government’s Brexit plan before Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty is triggered. This is apparently a concession by May to win support of Conservative MPs for a vote on whether to allow parliament to vote directly on the Article 50 plan, which the government does not want (and is subject to a legal challenge that is starting this week). For markets this development is a sign that the government could be forced to dilute its “hard Brexit” stance, although this will remain to be seen. Elsewhere, the dollar traded mixed. EURUSD clocked a 10-week low of 1.1031 while USDJPY settled in the mid 103s in a fourth day of consolidation after logging a six-week peak at 104.16 last Thursday. AUDUSD lifted by over 0.5%, reversing most of yesterday’s decline.

BOJ Governor Kuroda: Speaking to parliamentexplained that the BOJwill ease policy again if required including lowering negative rates further and buying more Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) (currently set at 80 trillion yen a year). The amount of JGB purchases will vary from year to year.

BOC Governor Poloz: His comments were consistent with no change in rates alongside a cautiously constructive outlook for growth and inflation in next week’s announcement and MPR. The governor’s remarks, as reported by Bloomberg, were cautiously upbeat on growth prospects. He acknowledged disappointment over the underperformance in exports and slow pace of the rebound but reiterated that the economy’s path remains positive and further fiscal stimulus will provide a boost near term. The Governor said “The situation continues to be okay…” We agree, with recent data consistent with an economy that continues to find its footing in the wake of the oil price shock and Fort McMurray wildfire. Notably, employment grew in both August and September while the Outlook Survey revealed that weakness in the resource sector is likely bottoming out. Modest reductions in the bank’s GDP projections are expected next week, but the rebound scenario will remain intact. Hence, projections remain for no change in rates until the first half of 2018, when modest rate hikes are seen.

Fedspeak: Minneapolis Fed moderate Kashkari sees no urgency in raising rates and said the Fed should let the economy keep creating jobs so long as it doesn’t spur inflation. He says his eyes are wide open for signs of asset bubbles. Kashkari is speaking on the Too-Big-To-Fail topic, but segued into policy, though this is in line with his previous arguments in favour of patience.

Main Macro Events Today

• FOMC Minutes – The minutes will be an interesting read given the degree of market speculation of a rate hike back then, and now, and especially with the three dissenting votes against last month’s unchanged policy decision. However, there’s not likely to be any new information shared since that meeting included the Fed’s new projections and dot plot, along with Chair Yellen’s press conference. There’s also been considerable Fedspeak since the meeting, explaining the stance. The minutes should show confirmation the Fed remained sidelined due to the slowdown in the labour market and uncertainties over the fallout from Brexit.

• JOLTS Report – A favourite of Governor Yellen, data released at 14:00 GMT expectations are for a slight fall to 5.79million from 5.87million last month.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 13th October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th OCTOBER 2016.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed south, with Hong Kong once again underperforming, after disappointing Chinese trade data and as the FED minutes said the case for a rate hike has strengthened. Together with curbs on property in China, the Hang Seng continues to underperform, while a stronger Yen is weighing on Japanese bourses. A Reuters source story meanwhile confirmed that a decision on the ECB’s QE changes and a possible extension is unlikely to be taken before December, although the council may already discuss some technical tweaks next week. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also I negative territory and oil prices are down with the front end WTI future below USD 50 per barrel. With Sterling heading south again and the EUR moving higher against most currencies, the FTSE 100 may once again outperform the DAX, but yields are generally trending higher on both sides of the Channel. Released overnight U.K. RICS house price data came in better than expected.
FOMC minutes: Several members wanted to raise rates “relatively soon,” though we already knew that with the three dissenters. But, “a reasonable argument could be made either for an increase at this meeting or for waiting for some additional information on the labor market and inflation.”Obviously the Committee chose the latter and in a “close call,” decided to delay action. Nothing jumps out from the minutes to solidify expectations on a hike later this year. Interestingly, the FOMC worried about “eroding its credibility, especially given that recent economic data had largely corroborated the Committee’s economic outlook.” . While it’s still the case that economic data reports matter, this latter comment regarding worries over credibility, will keep the markets guessing about a December hike.
German Sep HICP inflation: Confirmed at 0.6% y/y, the national HICP rate at 0.7% y/y. The breakdown showed that the uptick over the month was mainly due to less negative base effects from energy prices, with prices for petrol falling -3.5% y/y in September, after still dropping -9.1% y/y in August. The rate excluding energy rose to 1.0% from 0.7% and excluding energy and petrol the rate rose to 1.2% y/y from 1.1% y/y in August. A confirmation then that inflation is trending higher, as oil prices stabilise and the most recent uptick in oil prices means the adjustment could happen quicker than anticipated. Further ammunition then for the ECB’s hawk, which are reluctant to extent the already generous stimulus further when the current QE program ends in March next year. Against that background a tapering, with somewhat reduced monthly purchase levels could be a typical European compromise.
FX Update: A big miss in Chinese exports drove a risk-off play in forex markets in the Asia session. AUDJPY, which is a risk appetite proxy, shed nearly 1%, while USDJPY, which had earlier clocked a 10-week high at 104.63, tipped back sharply to a low of 103.55, subsequently settling around 103.80. Aside from the 10% y/y dive in Chinese exports, softer oil prices and the latest FOMC minutes highlighting of hawkish arguments at the Fed were also in the mix of risk appetite spoilers. The yen gained in accordance with its historical inverse correlation with global stock market direction. The MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index lost over 1% as it fell into three-week low territory. USDJPY needs to hold 103.28, yesterday’s low to retain bullish trend credentials. A breach would signal a greater risk of a mean reversion move. The 20- and 50-day moving averages are presently at 102.09 and 101/89, respectively.
Main Macro Events Today

• 
  
  
  • US Initial Job Claims – Initial claims data for the week of October 8 are out today and should reveal a slight headline increase to 253k from 249k last week and 254k in the week of September 24. More broadly, claims are expected to average 256k in October from 254k in September and 262k in August.

• 
  
  
  • US Import & Export Prices – September trade price data is expected to show import prices unchanged with export prices down 0.2% on the month. This follows respective August figures which had import prices down 0.2% and export prices down 0.8%. The drop in oil prices over last winter and spring depressed headlines in this release but as prices rebounded over summer so too did headline import prices.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 14th October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th OCTOBER 2016.

FX News Today
FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, with Japanese markets and Hang Seng managing to move higher after yesterday’s dip, but investors continue to eye China nervously as weak trade data yesterday was followed by higher than expected inflation data on Friday. Oil prices moved higher and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 50.84 per barrel, which helped to underpin equity markets as the focus turns to Yellen’s speech at the Boston Fed conference. U.S. stock futures are little changed, while the FTSE 100 future is moving higher with Sterling weakness helping the index to outperform other European markets, while adding to Gilt underperformance as concerns about the inflation impact picks up. The EUR is down against all other currencies aside from GBP, which may also help to put a floor under stock markets despite tapering talk. The European calendar has final September inflation numbers from Spain and Italy as well as Eurozone trade data and Swiss PPI inflation.
China CPI & PPI Exceed Expectations: China Sep. CPI: 1.9% y/y (expected 1.6%) and PPI +0.1% (expected -0.3%). It’s the first time PPI has come in higher since January of 2012. Higher coal and steel prices a key factor in the positive result, and these could well be a signal of a diminishing of over-capacity problems.
US Data Reports: Revealed firmness in September trade prices and lean initial claims through the first two weeks of October that beat estimates, leaving upside risk for Q4 GDP and October payrolls that we peg at 2.5% and 170k respectively. For trade prices, we saw the expected 1.2% September oil import price bounce, but with a firm 0.3% export price rise. For claims, we saw a flat figure at the downwardly-revised 246k (was 249k) level from the first week of October that left a two-week stretch for claims at a new 42-year low. Claims are entering October well below already-lean September levels.
Fedspeak: Moderate Harker – the economy is doing “pretty well” and we have a strong labor market, he said, though the share of the population that wants to work makes it harder for the Fed to guide the economy. Harker also denied that the Fed is affected by the election cycle or influenced by politics. He also said a hike sooner than later would be his preference, though raising rates too quickly could have an impact on exports (USD index probed 98.0 7-month highs yesterday). He reiterates that he expects one rate hike by the end of 2016 and “at least two” next year. Kashkari – not forecasting a boom and not forecasting a recession for the US economy, but does expect more sluggish growth.
Main Macro Events Today

• US Retail Sales – September retail sales data is out today and should reveal a 0.6% headline with a 0.5% ex-autos increase. This would follow respective August figures which had the headline down 0.3% on the month with the ex-autos figure down 0.1% for that month. The release faces upside risk from firm chain store sales, stronger gasoline prices and an increase in auto sales.

• US PPI – September PPI should reveal a 0.2% headline with a 0.1% increase for the core. This follows August figures which had the headline unchanged and the core up 0.1%. Oil prices managed to climb in September which could lend some upside risk to the release.

• US Michigan Consumer Sentiment – The first release on Michigan Sentiment is out today too and should reveal a 92.0 headline from 91.2 in September and 89.8 in August. After some weakness in August the various measures of consumer confidence posted a rebound in September although they are still tracking below the highs seen last spring.

• Yellen and Carney – Both the Fed Chair and the BOE Governor have speaking engagements scheduled for today. With Sterling under continued scrutiny and Fed members becoming increasingly hawkish; their respective speeches are to be followed closely.

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
[/FONT]

 

[HFM]

Date : 17th October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th OCTOBER 2016.

Main Macro Events This Week

United States: The economic calendar is a relatively light one this week, but does include an important inflation update, a rash of housing data and the Philly Fed survey. The Empire State index is forecast to rebound to 1.0 in October (Monday), while industrial production may recover 0.1% in September, capacity utilization seen rising to 75.6% from 75.5%. CPI is projected to jump 0.3% headline (Tuesday), with a 0.2% core rise vs 0.3%. The NAHB housing market index is expected to dip to 63 in October. The MBA mortgage application survey is due (Wednesday) and we’ll see how well it absorbs the rebound in mortgage rates, while housing starts are seen rebounding 2.4% to a 1,170k pace in October. EIA energy inventories will also be monitored for any “tell” on the near-term direction of energy prices. The Philly Fed index may sink to 6.3 in October from 12.8 (Thursday), while initial jobless claims may bounce 4k to 250k. Leading indicators are expected to rise 0.2% in September vs -0.2%, while existing home sales may bounce 1.3% to 5.40 mln. The calendar is empty Friday.

Fedspeak: the big guns continue to appear this week after Yellen’sdovish long-term guidance last week, starting with Fed Vice Chairman Fischer (Monday) who has been leaning more hawkishly near-term of late. SF Fed dove Williams speaks on (Wednesday), followed by Dallas Fed moderate Kaplan in a Q&A session. NY Fed dove Dudley discusses the economic history of New York from 19:45 ET. All three have mulled the likelihood of a hike before year-end and seem inclined to follow through, barring any extraordinary events beforehand. Dudley makes another appearance on the financial industry (Thursday). Governor Tarullo speaks (Friday), followed by Williams again.

Earnings will be important this week with many heavyweights slated to announce results. Including BoA, Netflix, IBM, (Monday) Goldman Sachs, Yahoo, Intel (Tuesday), Morgan Stanley, eBay (Wednesday) , Verizon, American Airlines, PayPal (Thursday) and GE and McDonald’s (Friday).

Canada: The Bank of Canada takes center stage this week, with the announcement and Monetary Policy Report (MPR) on tap forWednesday. There is also manufacturing report (Tuesday) and CPI (Friday) is seen rising 0.2% m/m in September and 1.4% y/y growth pace in September from the 1.1% rate of gain in August.

Europe: The focus this week will be on the ECB meeting (Thursday). The data calendar, s pretty empty. Final Eurozone HICP inflation for September is likely to be confirmed at 0.4% y/y. German September PPI inflation is also likely to see rates moving up. Preliminary October Eurozone consumer confidence is expected to improve to -8.0 from -8.2 in September.

UK: The plunge in the pound, which has been likened to an emerging world currency in a research piece from Citi last week, looks likely to continue to drive underperformance in UK sovereign debt given the risk of higher inflation. BoE Governor Carney appeared to make a verbal currency market intervention on Friday, saying that the central bank is “not indifferent” to forex levels. The helped give the pound a prop, though the impact was limited. September inflation data (Tuesday), headline CPI to tick up to a new cycle high of 0.9%. Core CPI is also seen rising to a new cycle peak, of 1.4% y/y, from 1.3%. Such a rise in CPI will be consistent with BoE projections. Monthly labour statistics are also up (Wednesday), where the rear-view unemployment measure for August is expected unchanged at 4.9%, which is the cycle low. Average weekly earnings in the three-months to August are expected rise 2.3% in the with-bonus figure, which would still be well above inflation.

China: Q3 GDP (Wednesday) is forecast to hold steady at the 6.7% y/y pace from Q2. Growth has been moderating for the last several quarters, and is down from 7.2% in Q4 2014. September industrial production (Wednesday) is expected to slip slightly to 6.2% y/y from 6.3% previously. September retail sales (Wednesday) are penciled in at a 10.6% y/y clip, unchanged from August. September fixed investment is also due Wednesday, expected unchanged at an 8.1% y/y rate. September loan growth and new yuan loans are tentatively due Monday, and are expected to post a 13.1% y/y clip from 13.0%, and CNY 1,050.0 bln from CNY 948.7 bln, respectively.

Japan: The August all-industry index (Wednesday) is seen edging up 0.2% m/m from up 0.3% previously. This would be a third monthly gain. Revised industrial production has been reported and has missed expectations.

Australia: Calendar has September employment (Thursday), expected to improve 15.0k after the 3.9k drop in August. The unemployment rate is seen rising to 5.7% in September from 5.6% in August. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes to the October meeting are due (Tuesday). Governor Lowe speaks (Tuesday) at Citi’s 8th Annual Australian & New Zealand Investment Conference in Sydney.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 20th October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20 th OCTOBER 2016.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets mostly moved higher, as the Dollar strengthened in the wake of the last U.S. presidential debate. The weaker Yen helped to underpin Japanese markets and the most recent rise in oil prices is also helping to underpin investor demand. The front end WTI future has come off highs but is holding comfortably above USD 51 per barrel. In Europe the focus is on the ECB meeting and even if policy is likely to remain on hold today, Draghi will hope to keep his options sufficiently open to avoid a temper tantrum as markets focus on further stimulus beyond the current QE program, which ends in March next year. The European calendar also has U.K. retail sales, BoP and current account data from the Eurozone and Swiss trade data at the start of the session.
BOC Rate Decision: Governor Poloz said they actively discussed adding more monetary stimulus before deciding to leave the policy rate unchanged. He said the Governing Council “actively discussed the possibility of adding more monetary stimulus at this time, in order to return to the economy to full capacity.” Yet, they “identified a number of uncertainties in the current framework that are serving to widen the zone of balance within our risk-management framework.” Those uncertainties include “the macroeconomic effects of the new mortgage rates, the likely path of our exports; the impact of the federal government’s fiscal measures…and the effects on business confidence of the U.S. election.” The revelation that they “actively discussed” the possibility of adding more stimulus is not exactly a surprise. Given where the domestic and global economy currently sit, expectations are that this will continued to be discussed but with the same result (no change in rates) to be the same.
Poor Australian Labour Data: The number of jobs fell last month by 9,800, expectations were for an increase of 15,200, also the previous month was revised down to a fall of 8,600 from a fall of 3,900. Fulltime employment for September showed a dramatic fall of 53,000 and August was revised down to 10,500 from 11,500. AUD/USD dropped from around 0.7725 to under 0.7700, spent a few minutes chopping in a small range before slipping further and its under 0.7665 currently. Just as doubts were raised after big employment gains in the past, doubts were raised on big employment losses on today’s figures, the -53K for full time jobs in the month result in particular was greeted with questions.
Fedspeak: Dallas Fed moderate (and non-voter) Kaplan sees inflation firming while GDP growth for 2016 will likely average 1.75%, sufficient to drive down unemployment and take some slack out of the labor force. He sees political uncertainty likely affecting capital spending, but once the election is out of the way focus needs to shift to entitlement reform and infrastructure spending. Kaplan also notes that the Fed needs to be “humble” about the limits of monetary policy. Fed’sPotter says the Fed should be prepared to sell MBS, in comments at a Minneapolis Fed conference. Potter is head of the Fed’s Markets Group, so he has a lot of authority behind his words. Though “current FOMC guidance states that the sale of agency MBS is not anticipated…it is prudent for the Desk to be prepared for a wide variety of scenarios, including sales or the need to purchase additional agency MBS.” The large size and structure of the agency MBS market makes it a “desirable choice for conduction operations of the magnitude necessary t have a meaningful impact on financial and macroeconomic conditions.” However, the Fed’s experience with selling MBS is much more limited than purchasing agency paper, he noted. The Fed’s portfolio and possible manipulations of such has been in the news lately, especially after a “twist” operation was broached by Boston Fed’s Rosengren last week.
Main Macro Events Today

• ECB Rate Announcement & Press Conference – Even if the ECB more likely to postpone any major decisions until December Draghi will be facing a difficult balancing act at today’s press conference, especially since a Reuters reported suggested that the planned tweaks to the asset purchase program designed to address looming supply shortages could already be discussed this week. At the same time, the question is whether the ECB will extend the QE program beyond March next year, when the current schedule of EUR 80 bln purchases per month is set to end. With growth indicators suggesting ongoing economic expansion and inflation starting to move higher, the ECB clearly is reluctant to add even more stimulus to an already very expansionary policy but the doves at the council will press for a follow up program with the end result likely a gradual phasing out of asset purchases. It will depend on Draghi’s delivery whether this will spook markets as the dreaded “tapering” or whether he can sell it as the further expansion of monetary policy it actually is. For now Draghi will be keeping all his options open and try to deliver a statement that keeps markets guessing and hoping and thus avoids a temper tantrum.

• US Philly Fed Index – October Philly Fed should reveal a headline dip to 6.3 after the September bounce to 12.8 from 2.0 in August. The Empire State Index for October is already out and declined to -6.8 from -2.0 in September. Broadly, expectations are for producer sentiment to trend sideways in October with the ISM-adjusted average of all measures holding at 50 from August and September.

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.[/FONT]

 

[HFM]

Date : 21st October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st OCTOBER 2016.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are narrowly mixed, with Japanese bourses managing marginal gains as the Yen falls against the Dollar. Stock futures in the U.S. are down, but U.K. futures are slightly in positive territory after the UK100 managed to close with a marginal gain on Thursday. Eurozone bond and stock markets outperformed yesterday after Draghi managed to dampen tapering fears, while postponing any decisions on future policy to December. Bund futures moved sideways in after hour trade, and oil prices are falling towards USD 50 per barrel, which will dampen investor appetite but Eurozone markets are likely to continue outperforming their U.K. counterparts in the wake of Draghi’s statement yesterday. The data calendar is relatively quiet, with only U.K. public finance data, but the ECB’s survey of professional forecasts will give clues about the inflation outlook and comments from Weidmann may add a more hawkish spin to Draghi’s message yesterday. The GER30 is awaiting earnings reports from Daimler as positive numbers from SAP are underpinning the index ahead of the official open.
Kuroda Speech: BOJ will evaluate appropriate yield curve at every meeting, “ideal” can change depending on economy, not immediately thinking of lowering 80tln yen goal and possible to revise reaching 2% inflation time frame (currently target is for Inflation to hit 2% during 2017) !! He also reemphasized that “buying, selling FX is under the jurisdiction of the Finance Ministry”.
ECB – Decisions on QE Postponed until December: Nothing new from the ECB, with major decisions postponed, pretty much as we expected. While Draghi initially spooked markets by saying that an extension to the QE program hasn’t been discussed today, he still managed to keep investors happy in the end, by adding that an abrupt halt to asset purchases is unlikely. With the current program, which runs until March, confirmed at EUR 80 bln per month, this implies an extension of the asset purchase schedule, even if it may come at somewhat reduced levels.
US Data Reports: Revealed firm Philly Fed component data despite a small headline drop to 9.7 in October from a 19-month high of 12.8, alongside a 13k bounce in initial claims in the BLS survey week to a still respectable 260k that remains consistent with a remarkably lean 253k October average. We also saw a 3.2% September existing home sales rise to a 5.47 mln rate that beat estimates, alongside a 0.2% September leading indicators bounce that reversed a 0.2% August drop. The monthly data appear poised for an upturn into Q4, as the bounce in oil prices is allowing a mining and factory output recovery just as the big six-quarter inventory headwind comes to a close.
Main Macro Events Today

• Canada Retail Sales – Retail sales are expected to rise 0.3% in August after the 0.1% dip in July. The ex-autos sales aggregate is seen expanding 0.4% in August following the 0.1% dip in July. Gasoline prices dipped just 0.9% in August after the 5.6% plunge in July, according to the CPI . Hence we should see the gasoline station sales component exert a very slight drag on total and ex-autos sales. Vehicle sales downshifted to a slower pace in July, and that modest slowing persisted in August according to industry sales figures. Sales volumes grew 0.3% in July, suggestive of some awaking in the consumer after spending declines from March to June.

• Canada CPI – CPI is also expected to rise 0.2% m/m in September after the 0.2% drop in August. Total CPI is seen accelerating to a 1.4% y/y pace in September from the 1.1% rate in August. A pick-up in gasoline prices is expected to drive the gain in total CPI during September relative to August, contrasting with the hefty gasoline price declines that were a drag on total CPI in July and August. The Bank of Canada’s core CPI is seen rising 0.2% m/m in September after the flat reading in August, leaving a 1.8% y/y pace that is identical to the growth rate in in August.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 26th October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 26th OCTOBER 2016.

FX News Today

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly down, with Japan a notable outperforming (closing up and indices holding on to modest gains as the Yen continued to decline against the Dollar. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also heading south as oil prices are down and the front end WTI future is trading below USD 50 per barrel, which has been hitting energy producers. Investors continue to watch earnings reports. ECB’s Draghi once again defended the ECB’s policy in a speech in Germany yesterday evening, while once again calling for support from the fiscal side. Nothing new there that would change the policy outlook.
German GfK consumer confidence: Dropped to 9.7 in November, from 10.0 in October. There is no breakdown for the November projections but the fall back was unexpected and disappointing, especially after the stronger than expected Ifo and PMI readings this week. The breakdown for October showed a marked improvement in business cycle expectations, which jumped to 13.0 from 6.8, the highest reading since June, which suggests that the Brexit shock was short lived. Despite this income expectations declined sharply as did the willingness to buy, although the willingness to save also slumped amid the low interest rate environment. Mixed messages then and at least in Germany it seems Draghi’s policy of easy money is not lifting consumption.
Australian CPI: The Australian dollar rallied following an above-forecast headline in Australian Q3 CPI, which rose 0.7% q/q, above the median expectation for a 0.5% rise. Most expect this should keep the RBA, which had cited concerns about disinflation as prime reasons for cutting rates in May and August this year, from any temptation to cut rates at its policy meeting next week. Core inflation painted a more benign picture, remaining unchanged at 1.5% y/y. AUDUSD lifted to a one-week high at 0.7708, which was a gain of just over 1%, before settling around 0.7690.
US Data reports: Revealed a larger than expected consumer confidence drop to 98.6 in October from a 103.5 (was 104.1) September figure that now sits marginally below the 103.8 cycle-high in January of 2015, alongside a Richmond Fed rise to -4.0 from -8.0 in September and a 3-year low of -11.0 August. We also saw big gains in two August home price indicators of 0.4% for Case-Shiller and 0.7% for the FHFA. The ISM-adjusted Richmond Fed rose to 51.5 from 50.8 in September and a 43-month low of 49.7 in August, as we’re seeing a renewed uptrend in producer sentiment with the bounce in oil prices and a recovery in mining and factory output as the big six-quarter inventory headwind reverses course. Confidence faces a headwind from the November elections, though we have an ongoing lift from low gasoline prices, stock market and home price gains, and an expected GDP bounce after a three-quarter string of lean 1% growth rates through Q2.
Main Macro Events Today

• 
  
  
  • US Flash Services PMI – Expectations are for a slight uptick to 52.4 from a positively revised 52.3 last time.

• 
  
  
  • US New Home Sales – New home sales are expected to decrease 1.5% to a 600k unit pace in September from 609k in August. Forecast risk: upward, given the higher NAHB for the month. Market risk: downward, as a run of weak data could impact the path of further rate hikes.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 27th October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th OCTOBER 2016.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed broadly lower, as investors remain focused on the earnings season, with Canon Inc. the biggest drag on the index. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also down, following on from losses yesterday. Oil prices are up from lows, but the front end WTI (USOil) futures remains firmly below USD 50 per barrel, as U.S. East and Gulf coast stockpiles rose and the country’s production picked up. In Europe Deutsche Bank reports earnings today and the calendar has U.K. Q3 GDP growth data, which is expected to show a sharp deceleration in the quarterly growth rate to 0.3%. The Eurozone has M3 money supply growth and Italian consumer and business confidence data. Elsewhere Norges Bank is expected to keep the deposit rate unchanged at 0.50%. Core European bond futures declined in tandem with stock markets yesterday, as the focus remains on the U.S. rate outlook and the U.S. Presidential Election.
US Earnings – the busiest day : Earnings will remain the focal point again today with several more heavy hitters on tap. The calendar features Alphabet, Amazon, Twitter, Amgen, Baidu, Dow Chemical, Dr Pepper Snapple, Ford Motor, Aetna, Blackstone, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Brunswick,ConocoPhillips, Celgene, Raytheon, Expedia, Choice Hotels, Colgate-Palmolive, VW, Deckers, Hanesbrands, HealthSouth, LinkedIn, MGM Resorts, Nokia, Samsung Electronics, SolarCity, and Stanley Black & Decker.
US Data reports: Revealed big upside September surprises in the advance indicator report for the trade deficit and inventories alongside a 3.1% September new home sales rise that unfortunately followed big downward revisions over the prior three months that trimmed the summer sales spike. The trade and inventory surprises lifted Q3 GDP growth estimates sharply to 3.3% from 2.5%, though there were reductions in Q4 GDP growth to 2.0% from 2.5% as the expected Q4 inventory bounce was “pulled forward” into September. Expectations are now for a September drop in the goods and services trade gap to $36.5 bln from $40.7 bln in August. Also a 0.2% September business inventory increase that incorporates yesterday’s gains of 0.2% for wholesalers and 0.3% for retailers, alongside an assumed 0.1% factory inventory rise.
Germany’s Schaeuble: U.K. can’t have Brexit “A La Carte”. Nothing really new there, with the German finance minister repeating again that single market membership requires the acceptance of the EU’s four freedoms. He also said that the EU can’t show much flexibility, which confirms again that boths sides are heading for a hard Brexit scenario and Schaeuble’s hope that the economic damage for the EU and the U.K should be kept to a minimum, may be hard to achieve.
Main Macro Events Today

• 
  
  
  • UK Prelim GDP – The first post Brexit quarterly reading. So far cable has pivoted around 1.2200, since the flash crash on October 7th. Announcement watched eagerly in Downing Street and at the BOE. Expectations are for a q/q figure of 0.3%. Last time 0.5% and the subsequently revised up to 0.7%.

• 
  
  
  • US Core Durable Goods – September figure is seen as edging up 0.2%, after August’s revised 0.1% increase.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 31st October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 31st OCTOBER 2016.

FX News Today

FBI’s Comey dropped a bombshell on the markets late Friday as he announced the agency would be reviving the Clinton email probe after learning, via a separate investigation, of the existence of apparently “pertinent” messages on a PC owned by Anthony Weiner (estranged husband of Clinton advisor Huma Abedin). In his letter, Comey reportedly told key members of Congress that his agency should take “appropriate investigative steps.” Wall Street dropped on the news, though a bounce in Biotech and Pharma shares (on the hot seat under Clinton) helped the Dow recover toward unchanged levels. The Mexican peso, the de facto election barometer, was the main casualty of the news, plunging 1.4% before closing 0.9% lower. Concurrently, bond yields closed modestly lower on short covering and risk aversion. This heightened uncertainty will make for an extraordinary run up to the November 8 election.
United States: The FOMC (Tuesday, Wednesday) will be a point of interest for the markets this week, but not quite the center of attention it usually is. The pick-up in Advance Q3 GDP to 2.9% helped clear the way for a hike in December, and implied futures were suggesting about a 75-80% probability — the November 1, 2 FOMC was never really in the running due to the election. Other data this week will have more relevance for how the markets set up for the December policy decision. Remember, the onus is on the data to keep the Fed sidelined at year end. Personal income (Monday) and PCE. Chicago PMI and Dallas Fed index (Tuesday) and construction spending. MBA mortgage applications are on tap (Wednesday), along with the ADP employment survey set to increase 160k in October. Q3 productivity (Thursday) along with. Initial jobless claims, ISM services and factory goods orders. The employment report will highlight on Friday, with October nonfarm payrolls expected to increase by 174k vs 156k in September, with a 160k private payroll gain. The unemployment rate is expected to tick back down to 4.9% from 5.0% in September. The workweek is expected to hold at 34.4 for a second month. Hourly earnings are expected to be up 0.2% which would leave a 2.5% y/y rise. Hours-worked should be 0.1% for the month following a 0.4% increase last month.
The Q3 earnings announcements continue this week. So far, most of the S&P companies which have announced have beaten estimates. This week includes Electronic Arts, Pfizer, Alibaba, Allergan, Facebook, Fitbit, Time Warner, Kraft Heinz, Adidas, Liberty Global, Starbucks and BMW.
Canada: A heavy slate of economic data this week: The industrial product price index (Monday), GDP (Tuesday), Employment (Friday) is projected to fall 15.0k in October, but after the stunning 67.2k surge in September. The unemployment rate is seen steady at 7.0%. The trade deficit also (Friday) is expected to narrow to -C$1.8 bln in September from -C$1.9 bln in August, as Canada’s trade position continues to gradually improve. The October RBC manufacturing PMI (Tuesday) and October Ivey PMI (Friday) are also due.
Europe: Preliminary Eurozone Q3 GDP numbers and October inflation data will be in focus this week, which together with the final readings for October PMI surveys, will add to the data mix that could prove decisive for the ECB December decision on future QE purchases. Preliminary Eurozone HICP inflation (Monday) meanwhile is seen accelerating to 0.5% y/y.The data calendar also has unemployment numbers from Germany for October, (Wednesday). Eurozone September unemployment (Thursday) is seen steady at 10.2%. German retail sales and French production data are also on the slate.
UK: The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee meets for the first time since September (announcing Thursday), and the central bank will at the same time release the latest Quarterly Inflation Report with updated growth and inflation projections. While last week brought some good news, including the solid Q3 GDP report and news that Nissan will remain committed to its manufacturing operations in Brexit-bound Britain, the outlook remains clouded by uncertainty. S&P affirmed its AA credit rating for the UK late on Friday, although the agency maintained its negative outlook and warned that Brexit “presents a significant risk to the UK’s track record of strong economic performance, and to its large financial sector in particular.” The UK data calendar is also busy this week. Monthly BoE lending data (Monday) should see lending stabilize. The October PMI surveys highlight. The manufacturing PMI release (Tuesday), the construction PMI (Wednesday) and the services PMI (Thursday). Outcomes in-line with expectations would affirm that the economy is continuing to expand in early Q4.
China: The only reports are the services and manufacturing PMI measures (both Tuesday).
Japan: The BoJ meeting (Monday, Tuesday) will be anxiously awaited amid policy uncertainties. While Governor Kuroda and Company are not expected to reveal any changes to the QE program, the markets will be watching for any shift to the Bank’s timeline for hitting its inflation goal of 2%. Data wise September preliminary industrial production, Retail sales , housing starts, construction orders and auto sales are all published (Monday). The Nikkei/Markit October manufacturing PMI (Tuesday) is forecast at 48.0 from 48.2 previously. October consumer confidence (Wednesday) is forecast at 42.5 from 43.0 previously, while October services PMI is due Friday. The markets are closed for a holiday Thursday.
Australia: The calendar is highlighted Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting (Tuesday), expected to result in no change to the current 1.50% setting for the policy rate. Building approvals (Wednesday), the trade deficit (Thursday), Retail sales (Friday) and finally the October Melbourne Institute inflation index (Monday) is also scheduled for release.

​

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 1st November.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st November 2016.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, with Japanese markets fluctuating and closed with slight gains after the BoJ left rates unchanged, but lowered the inflation outlook. The Hang Seng is outperforming and mainland Chinese markets are also underpinned, after the official manufacturing PMI improved. The ASX underperformed as AUD strengthened and U.S. and U.K. stock futures are moving higher. Oil prices are up from lows, but the front end WTI future is just above USD 47 per barrel and clearly down from recent highs, amid the lack of an OPEC output deal. In Europe trade is likely to be quieter than usual, with a public holiday in some European countries, including parts of Germany. This will delay the release of final EMU manufacturing PMI numbers until tomorrow, while Switzerland and the U.K. will publish manufacturing PMI data today.
The BoJ left policy unchanged following the conclusion of its latest policy meeting, as had been widely expected. This left the interest rate at -0.1% and QQE unchanged at Y80 tln per year. The central bank also pushed back, once again, the time when it expects inflation to reach the 2% target, now projecting this to happen “around fiscal 2018.” Previously the BoJ had forecast inflation returning to target by the end of fiscal 2017, which ends in March 2018. The ellusive target was first introduced in 2013. Headline core CPI fell to -0.5% y/y in October, while the so-called “core-core” CPI figure was flat y/y, a three-year low and highlighting sluggish consumer demand. The central bank also trimmed its inflation forecasts today, now seeing core CPI at 1.5% in 2017 versus 1.7% previously. On the economy, the BoJ said that the economy would continue to expand moderately, but noted that households haven’t been spending increased income and that the risks to the outlook were skewed to the downside.
FX Update: The Aussie dollar was the standout performing, rallying on the RBA’s decision to leave policy unchanged. AUD-USD and AUD-JPY are registering the biggest movement out of the currencies we track, showing respective gains of 0.7% and 0.8% into the London interbank open. Australia’s weak core inflation data had fed some speculation that the RBA might have opted to make a third rate cut of the year. But the antipodean central bank stood pat and Governor Lowe’s statement was upbeat in outlook, noting that “over the next year, the economy is forecast to grow at close to its potential rate before gradually strengthening” with inflation “expected to pick up gradually over the next two years.” AUDUSD clocked a six-day high at 0.7688 while AUDJPY broke into three-month high terrain. Stronger than expected October manufacturing PMI surveys out of China, with the Caixin version reaching its best level since August 2011, also lifted the Aussie. Elsewhere, currencies generally saw narrow ranges. Cable consolidated gains seen into the London close yesterday, holding around 1.2220-30. EURUSD continued to narrowly orbit the 1.0950 level. USDJPY popped moderately higher after the expected decision by the BoJ to leave policy unchanged with the central bank lowering CPI forecasts and yet again pushing back the time it expects the 2% target to be reached.
US Data reports: Mixed. We saw a moderate 0.3% September personal income gain, but with a solid 0.5% consumption rise, alongside divergent October swings for the Chicago PMI and the Dallas Fed that left both measures below prior estimates. We saw a Chicago PMI drop to a 5-month low of 50.6 from 54.2, and a rise for the Dallas Fed to a still-negative -1.5 in October from -3.7. We saw an ISM-adjusted Dallas Fed drop to 49.6 from 51.2 in October and 50.7 in September.
Carney to stay and extra 12 months: BoE’s Carney will stay on another year, taking his term beyond the expected Article 50 process in order to help secure an orderly transition. This followed a meeting yesterday with PM May, the UK Finance Minister Hammond says he’s “very pleased” to hear that Carney intends to stay until the end of June 2019.

Main Macro Events Today

• 
  
  
  • US manufacturing ISM – The October ISM should reveal a headline increase to 51.7 from 51.5 in September and 49.4 in August. Already released measures of sentiment for October have revealed headline declines. More broadly we expect sentiment to improve in October with the ISM-adjusted average of all measures climbing to 51 after two months at 50 as inventory headwinds dissipate and the mining sector rebounds.

• 
  
  
  • Canada GDP – Expectations are for a 0.2% rise in September GDP. The modest gain would follow the back to back surges in August (+0.5%) and July (+0.6%), as the economy, or more specifically oil sands production in the Fort McMurray region, rebounded from the wildfires that shuttered production in May (when GDP fell 0.6%). The energy sector saw continued growth in September, as export volumes grew and higher volumes boosted manufacturing production.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 1st December 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st December 2016.

European Outlook: A jump in oil prices following yesterday’s OPEC deal on output cuts and a stronger than expected manufacturing PMI reading out of China underpinned broad gains on Asian stock markets overnight. The front end WTI future cleared the USD 50 per barrel mark, but while the oil price induced rally already helped European markets to post gains Wednesday, it seems to be running out of steam with U.S. stock futures down on the day in tandem with U.K. stock futures. Concerns about a new wave of global protectionism seems to be adding to concerns. The rise in oil prices should keep upward pressure on yields, although if equities head south again, we could see futures regaining some of yesterday’s losses. Italian markets will remain in focus as the referendum on constitutional reforms draws nearer. The European calendar has the final reading for the Eurozone manufacturing PMI, as well as Eurozone unemployment numbers and the U.K. manufacturing PMI for November.
US Reports Yesterday: Very solid personal income, ADP, and Chicago PMI figures that further document accelerating activity. For income, we saw a firm 0.6% October rise, with a lean 0.3% consumption increase but with the expected 0.1% “real” gain thanks to a lean 0.2% PCE chain price rise. We saw skewing of Q3 income and consumption strength toward September that lifted the entry to Q4, beyond the expected upward income revisions in Q2 and Q3, and Q3 consumption boosts. We lifted our consumption estimates, though we still peg Q4 GDP growth at 1.8%. A 216k November ADP rise beat our 180k estimate for private payrolls with a 190k total payroll increase, though we saw a big 28k downward October ADP revision to 119k from 147k that left a downside gap to the 142k private payroll increase in that month. We saw a November Chicago PMI surge to a 22-month high of 57.6 to leave a robust level as producer sentiment extends its uptrend. We expect a 190k rise in November payrolls tomorrow.
Canada’s Growth Ticks Up: Canada’s 3.5% GDP rebound in Q3 was accompanied by the anticipated bounce back in energy production, but was joined by acceleration in the pace of consumption spending, a surge in investment on non-residential structures and a positive contribution from inventories. A 0.3% gain in September GDP left a strong hand-off to Q4. The reports also imparted a mildly positive tilt to the outlook for 2016 and 2017 growth, adding to the case for no change from the Bank of Canada at the December announcement.
Fedspeak: Cleveland Fed hawk Mester said the “devil will be in the details” in terms of fiscal, trade and immigration policies of the next administration with respect to inflation and employment, but raising rates would be a prudent step for the Fed as postponing hikes for too long would raise risks of recession and financial instability. She feels the Fed meanwhile “is not behind the curve.” Mester has been a hawkish dissenter against policy status quo and has been arguing for pre-emptive rate hikes for a while, so this won’t come as a surprise. Fed Governor Powell; communications should downplay the timing of rate moves, he said in prepared remarks at an “Understanding Fedspeak” event. Focusing on the potential timing of changes can lead to confusion. Rather, communications should emphasize the uncertainty over forecasts. On the dot plot, he noted that while changes in the plot might reveal changes in views on the policy path, it’s not a useful predictor of near term rate action. In conclusion, he said policymakers communicate a lot more these days; some of the comments are designed to express the consensus, while some is designed to show the diversity of views.

Main Macro Events Today

• 
  
  
  • US ISM Manufacturing PMI – The October ISM is expected to rise to 52.5 from 51.9 in October. Forecast risk: upward, given strong components in early month sentiment. Market risk: downward, as weakening in data could impact rate hike timelines. The ISM has shown a recent high of 59.9 in February ’11 and a low of 33.1 in December of 2008.

• 
  
  
  • Canada 3Q GDP – Real Q3 GDP is expected to rebound 3.4% in the report due today after the 1.6% drop in Q2. A bounce-back in real net exports is seen driving the pick-up. Consumption growth is seen slowing, while M&E investment should manage another small gain. Inventories are the usual wildcard, projected to modestly subtract from GDP. Meanwhile, September GDP by industry is seen up 0.1% m/m, leaving a tepid hand-off to Q4. Moreover, the Q3 surge will be driven by a return to production and activity in the Forth McMurray region after the wildfire temporarily halted production in Q2
  • Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 5th December 2016.

THE ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD.

Main Macro Events This Week

United States: The November services data, along with trade and sentiment data will headline a thin economic slate. The nonmanufacturing ISM (Monday) is projected to rise to 55.5 after falling 2.3 points to 54.8 in October. The Markit services PMI is also slated (Monday). The October international trade report (Tuesday) is seen posting a wider $42.4 bln deficit. The December preliminary consumer sentiment release (Friday) should show an increase to 94.5 after popping up to 93.8 in November, further reflecting Trump enthusiasm. Productivity growth (Tuesday) is forecast to be unchanged at a 3.1% pace, while unit labor costs hold at 0.3%. The October JOLTS data (Wednesday) would typically be important, as it’s a Yellen favorite, but with the Fed a done deal next week, it will be overlooked. The quarterly QSS release (Thursday) will be of some importance for the GDP outlook as it’s an update on the service sector. Other data this week includes the Fed’s November Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) (Monday), October factory orders (Tuesday), October consumer credit (Wednesday), initial jobless claims (Thursday), and October wholesale trade. Fedspeak will be compressed to Monday this week heading into the Fed’s blackout window for the December 14 FOMC decision. On Saturday, NY Fed dove Dudleyconfined his remarks to regulation. He will be back up again on Monday discussing the macroeconomic outlook. Chicago Fed dove Evans will speak on the current economic outlook and policy. St. Louis Fed hawk-dove Bullard will discuss the economy and policy as well.

Canada: the Bank of Canada’s policy announcement (Wednesday) is the focus. No change in the current 0.50% rate setting is expected but a tempering of the easing bias is possible. Projections are also for no change in rates through next year. Data is headlined by the October trade report (Tuesday), with the deficit expected to narrow to -C$2.0 bln from -C$4.1 bln. The Ivey PMI (Tuesday) is projected to be nearly steady at 60.0 in November from 59.7 in October. Housing starts (Thursday) are seen slipping to 190.0k in November from 192.9k in October. Building permit values (Thursday) are anticipated to decline 1.0% in October after tumbling 7.0% in September. Capacity utilization (Thursday) is projected to rebound to 81.5% in Q3 as the economy recovered, following the plunge to 80.0% in Q2 that was driven by the Alberta-wildfire-related pull-back in GDP. Capacity utilization was 81.4% in Q1. The October new housing price index (Thursday) is expected to rise 0.2% m/m in October after the matching 0.2% increase in September

Europe: The ECB is the focus this week. The Bank not only has to deal with the immediate fallout from the Italian referendum, but most importantly, it will be deciding on the future of the QE program, which currently runs out in March. News sources suggested that many on the Committee favor another 6-month extension at current levels. The calendar will play a secondary role, although German manufacturing order numbers (Tuesday) will be interesting and are likely to be watched closely by central bankers. Similarly, industrial production for October (Wednesday) is expected to rebound 0.9% m/m after falling -1.8% m/m in September. Data broadly in line with expectations would confirm what confidence indicators already suggested, that growth is likely to pick up again in the last quarter of the year. The same holds for Eurozone October retail sales (Monday), which are seen at 0.8% m/m.

The November Services PMI (Monday) is likely to be confirmed at 55.0. And, against these up-to-date numbers, the third release of Eurozone Q3 GDP (Tuesday) will be rather backward looking. The data calendar also has German trade numbers (Friday) and French production data Friday).

UK: Sterling closed out last week on strong footing with an average 0.6% advance versus the G3 currencies on the day and an average gain of 1.6% on the week. The calendar includes an expected ruling by the Supreme Court on Thursday on the government’s challenge to the issue of whether it has to put the decision to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty before parliament. Data include the November services PMI (Monday), which is expected to ebb to a headline reading of 54.2) after October’s 54.5. Like the manufacturing and construction PMIs have already shown, the November PMI should reveal a spike in cost pressures as the consequence of sterling’s weakness post-Brexit vote start to bite. Production data for October is also up (Wednesday), where we see scope for a rebound in the industrial output figure, to +0.2% m/m after September’s 0.4% m/m contraction. Trade data and various house price indicators are also out, none of which is expected to move markets.

China: The November trade surplus (Thursday) is expected to narrow to $45.0 bln from $49.1 bln in October. Friday brings November CPI and PPI, where the former is seen warming to 2.3% y/y from 2.1%, and the latter expected at 2.5% y/y from 1.2%.

Japan: The October current account surplus (Thursday) is seen narrowing to JPY 1,600.0 bln from 1,821.0 bln in September. November bank loan data are also due Thursday. The Q4 MoF business outlook survey (Friday) is expected to fall to 2.0 from 2.9 in November.

Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia meeting (Tuesday) is the highlight. No change to the current 1.50% rate setting is the expected outcome. The bank cut rates in May and August to counter a firming AUD. The slate of economic data is highlighted by Q3 GDP (Wednesday), projected to expand 0.4% (q/q, sa) after the 0.5% gain in Q2. The current account deficit (Tuesday) is seen at -A$14.5 bln after the -A$15.5 bln shortfall in Q2. The trade deficit (Thursday) is anticipated at -A$1.0 bln in October from -A$1.2 bln in September. Housing finance (Friday) is seen falling 1.0% in October after the 1.6% run-up in September.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 6th December 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th December 2016.

FX News Today

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets managed to move mostly higher, after gains in Europe and on Wall Street yesterday. The Italian MIB closed with slight losses Monday, but it seems investors quickly got over the widely expected rejection of Italy’s constitutional reform and Renzi’s resignation. Italy may once again have to look for a new government, but that is hardly anything new in a country where it is extremely rare for a government to last full term Italy is hardly heading for an exit from the EU, even if EMU membership is under scrutiny in some quarters, but the problems of Italy’s banks will likely come back to the forefront and keep pressure on Italian markets, which actually managed to outperform in the last week ahead of the referendum. Still, U.S. and European stock futures are heading south this morning, and oil prices are down. The European calendar has German factory orders at the start of the session, which are expected to rebound from the contraction in September. There is also the final and detailed reading of Eurozone Q3 GDP and Swiss inflation data. Already released overnight, U.K. BRC like for like retail sales came in weaker than expected.
RBA Rates left unchanged: Cash rates remain on hold at 1.5% as expected. “Rising AUD could complicate economic transition” Steady policy consistent with growth and inflation targets, global economy growing at a slower rate but Chinese economy has “Steadied”. Large supply of apartments to hit housing market (where prices are rising “briskly”) in the next few years. Global inflation more balanced than for “some time”. Labour market conditions have improved and commodity prices have risen. However, outlook for inflation remains “low for some time”. AUD unchanged following announcement and statement. RBA next meet February 8.
US Reports Yesterday: The U.S. ISM-NMI bounce to a 1-year high of 57.2 from 54.8 in October, but a similar 57.1 in September, left the measure much closer to the 10-year high of 59.6 in July of 2015 than the 6-year low of 51.4 in August. The ISM-adjusted ISM-NMI bounced less sharply, to 56.1 from 54.2 in October, versus an 8-month high of 56.3 in June, a 10-year high of 59.0 in July of 2015, and a 6-year low of 50.7 in August. The ISM-adjusted average of the major producer sentiment surveys surged to a 16-month high of 53 from 51 in October and 50 in August and September. We saw a 49 expansion-low in January and February, and previously in October of 2012. The employment gauge surged to a 1-year high of 58.2 from 53.1.
FedSpeak: St. Louis Fed hawk-dove Bullard: new tax, fiscal and regulatory policies in Washington could make the U.S. a higher-speed economy if they improve productivity. But any such policy changes should not be viewed as needed stimulus since the economy is not in recession. The impact on current low-growth, low interest rate regime depends on proper execution and focus on productivity improvements. Absent such changes, he’s still sticking with his one-rate-hike-only call to reach neutral policy, which is appropriate since inflation and unemployment are close to target. But this appears to give him an exit strategy if the fiscal outlook changes significantly. Dudley of NY Fed on CNBC: it’s premature to take on board market views of fiscal expansion, he said, but if fiscal policy got more expansive, the Fed would probably remove accommodation more quickly. But it depends on the specifics of any fiscal stimulus, which is as yet unknown. He’s essentially echoing his earlier speech on the economic outlook and he’s generally pleased that there has been an uptick in wages and inflation, which was the goal. Dudley notes that there will be lags in implementing any fiscal legislation, however, and any Fed policy adjustments as a result will be out over the horizon. Overall, he sees “downside risks to the economy reduced.” Dodd-Frank is not perfect, so changes are appropriate, but essential ingredients on capital requirements, etc. should remain. He also sees the rising dollar as consistent with expectations about growth. He is making a bid for automatic fiscal stabilizers again as well. Evans: we’re on cusp of period of rising rates, said the dovish Chicago Fed president, and he expects inflation to move “more solidly” toward the Fed’s 2% target. He said the state of demand in the U.S. is really quite good, growth should continue and with unemployment at 4.6% you don’t need explicit infrastructure stimulus. Evans echoed Dudley, saying we need to have patience to assess what the new administration’s policies will be, though policies under discussion could reinforce the U.S. growth trajectory. This is more optimistic on the growth front for Evans, therefore slightly more hawkish by implication.

Main Macro Events Today

• EUR Gross Domestic Product – Year on Year Eurozone area GDP is out later this morning and it is expected to remain unchanged at 1.6% with Month on month GDP also unchanged at 0.3%.

• US Factory Orders – October factory goods data is out later today and should reveal a 2.6 increase for the headline with shipments up 0.3% and inventories up 0.2%. This follows respective September figures which had orders up 0.7%, sales up 0.9% and inventories up 0.1%. Data in line with forecasts would leave the I/S ratio unchanged from September’s 1.34.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 12th December 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th December 2016.

Main Macro Events This Week
Global equities continue to charge ahead as the Trump reflation rally brings glad tidings and cheer to investors heading into the holidays. This week’s calendar is highlighted by the long-awaited December FOMC meeting, the last of 2016, and a rate hike should not be a surprise given the rhetorical smoke signals of late and the underpinnings of growth, jobs and even nascent signs of inflation recovering. With the ECB meeting now out of the way, focus in Europe will turn to policy decisions in the UK and Switzerland, where unchanged policy settings are forecast. For Japan the calendar ramps up with PPI, machine orders, Tankan and industrial production, while in China, FDI, production, retail and fixed investment data are due.

United States: The FOMC decision is the key data release of the week. U.S. import prices are projected to sink 0.4% in November vs +0.5% (Tuesday), while export prices are also seen -0.4% vs +0.2%. MBA mortgage market indices (Wednesday) may continue to feel the strain of rising mortgage rates. Retail sales are forecast to rise 0.6% in November vs 0.8%, or 0.7% ex-auto, as rising gasoline prices boost gas station sales. Headline PPI may remain muted at 0.1% in November or 0.2% core. Industrial production is set to dip 0.1% in November, while capacity use may slip slightly to 75.2%. October business inventories are expected to sink 0.2%. CPI kicks off a busy (Thursday), with a headline forecast of 0.3% in November, while the core reading is seen 0.2% higher for a 2.1% y/y gain. The Philly Fed index may rise to 9.0 in December from 7.6, while the Empire State index is forecast to jump to 4.0 in December from 1.5. Also on tap is the Q3 current account deficit, projected to narrow to -$112.1 bln from -$119.9 bln. Initial jobless claims may slip 8k to 250k for the week ending December 10 and the NAHB housing market index is expected to hold steady at 63 in December. The week wraps up with housing starts (Friday) seen retreating 6.3% to a 1,240k unit pace in November after the 25.5% surge to 1,323k in October.

The markets are fully priced for a rate hike Wednesday. So, key for price action will be what’s inferred for the 2017 trajectory in the policy statement, and more importantly in the forecasts. FOMC forecast revisions to be released Wednesday after the FOMC meeting should reveal boosts in the PCE chain price forecasts for 2016, downward 2016 jobless rate revisions, and a narrowing in 2016 GDP.

Canada: Highlights are on Thursday, when the October manufacturing survey and the Bank of Canada’s Financial System Review (FSR) are released. Manufacturing is expected to improve 0.5% in October after the 0.3% gain in September. The FSR, which is published twice a year, will be followed by a press conference with Governor Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins. The Q3 national balance sheet and financial flow accounts report is due Wednesday, which will provide a key measure of household leverage. Housing data is also due, with the Teranet/National HPI for November scheduled for Wednesday and the November existing homes sales report is due out Thursday.

Europe: With the ECB announcement out of the way and effectively setting policy parameters for the whole of 2017, by extending the QE program through to December next year, data releases won’t change the overall outlook. The data calendar has the German December ZEW reading, which we expect to have picked up again following Draghi’s early Christmas present and expectations are for a rise in the future expectations index to 14.3 from 13.8 in the previous month. The rest of the calendar focuses on final November inflation data with the German reading expected to be confirmed at 0.7% y/y, the French also at 0.7% y/y, the Spanish at 0.5% y/y, the Italian at 0.1% y/y and the overall Eurozone number at 0.6% y/y. Inflation is ticking higher, but not sufficiently apparently for the ECB. Eurozone production data for October meanwhile could correct again after weaker than expected German and French data and the Eurozone trade surplus is expected to ease slightly. Events include an EU leaders summit, with Brexit strategy discussions likely to be high on the agenda, but unlikely to be discussed much publicly, as the official line remains the same as before the U.K.’s referendum.

UK: Signs, via give-away remarks from government ministers and leaks, have suggested that the UK government is steering the economy to a soft Brexit. ary Policy Committee meets for the final time in 2016 (announcing Thursday), where unanimous decisions to leave the repo rate at 0.25% and the QE total at GBP 435 bln, is widely anticipated, coupled with a tone in the minutes that reaffirms the neutral stance that was established last month. The data calendar is headlined by inflation data for November (Tuesday), where we expect the headline CPI rate to lift to a cycle high of 1.1% , which would more than reverse the unexpected dip in October to 0.9% (from September’s 1.0% rate). Monthly labour market data, covering October and November, is also up (Wednesday), where we expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at the cycle low of 4.8% y/y in October, while the more timely jobless claimant count is seen rising 5k, which would build on the 9.8k rise seen in the month prior. Official retail sales for November (Thursday) has us anticipating a modest 0.2% m/m expansion, which would follow the solid, weather-influenced 1.9% m/m rise in October.

China: November industrial production (Tuesday) is expected little changed at 6.0% y/y from 6.1% in October, while November retail sales (Tuesday) are forecast to rise 10.2% y/y from 10.0% previously. November fixed investment (Tuesday) is predicted at 8.2% y/y from 8.3%.

Japan: Quiet week for data. The BoJ’s December Tankan index (Wednesday) should see the large manufacturer’s component improve to 8 from 6 and the large non-manufacturers component at 20 from 18. Revised October industrial production is also due Wednesday.

Australia: The calendar features November employment (Thursday), expected to rise 15.0k after the 10.9k gain in October. The unemployment rate is at 5.6% in November, matching the 5.6% reading seen in October. The Q3 house price index is due Tuesday. There is no Reserve Bank of Australia speaker this week. The minutes to the December meeting (December 20) are the next event of note from the bank.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 13th December 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th December 2016.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets were narrowly mixed, with Japan outperforming (closed up 0.5% at 19,250) as the Yen fell ahead of the FOMC announcement. The ASX closed down, and Chinese bourses managed to claw back some of yesterday’s losses, but the Hang Seng is also slightly in the red and funding concerns remain. A pick up in China retail sales and industrial production may indicate that there is still momentum in the economy, but pressure on Hong Kong’s money markets continues to build as funding costs rise to the highest level since 2009 as the Fed readies for a rate hike. And the squeeze has started to spill over into markets. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are moving higher though, and the FTSE 100 could claw back some of yesterday’s losses at the open. Oil prices have fallen back from yesterday’s highs and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 52.63, which could help bond futures to win back some lost ground and help yields to come off highs. The European calendar has German ZEW investor confidence and a host of December inflation data, with the final release from Germany at the start of the session, followed by inflation numbers from Sweden, the U.K. Spain and finally Portugal.
China data beats: Chinese Retail Sales were particularly strong and came in at 10.8% y/y well ahead of expectations at 10.2%. Industrial Production also beat expectations at 6.2% y/y (6.1%) expected. Both sets of figures suggest a much smoother end to 2016 for the Chinese economy than the first six months. Private investment remains weak, and government stimulus continues to support the economy. The housing market (a main driver of the economy this year and many view as overheating) is showing signs of cooling and therefore slowing potential growth next year.
German final Nov HICP was confirmed at 0.7% y/y, as expected, with the national rate confirmed at 0.8% y/y. both unchanged from the previous month. The uptrend in annual price declines for energy products was halted in November and prevented a further rise in the headline rate. Prices for household energy dropped -2.9% y/y, versus a decline of -2.3% y/y in the previous month, as declines in prices for gas and heating oil accelerated again. Petrol prices dropped -2.2% y/y, after rising 0.4% y/y in November and excluding household energy and petrol, the annual rate would have risen to 1.2% y/y from 1.1% y/y in the previous month. Clearly there are no signs of deflation risks and with rates excluding energy also far below the ECB’s upper limit for price stability, the numbers do seem to back the ECB’s argument that further stimulus is needed, despite gradually improving economic conditions.
FX Update: The dollar majors have been treading a narrow path. USDJPY has in the lower 115.0safter yesterday clocking a 10-month peak at 116.12, and EURUSD has settled in the low-to-mid 1.06s. Stronger than expected industrial production and retail sales data out of China had limited market impact, and directional ambition was largely absent during Tokyo trading today in forex markets. Wall Street closed mixed, off record highs, and the tone in Asia was generally negative until a PM-session bounce. The oil price rally has also come to pause, and market participants the world over are winding down into tomorrow’s Fed announcement and updated economic projections. A 25 bp rate hike at tomorrow’s announcement is all but certain, while there are no expectations for any major changes to the guidance of gradual tightening.

Main Macro Events Today

• German ZEW Preview – It is expected to improve on ECB stimulus. A slight rise in German ZEW investor confidence to 14.3 from 13.8 in November after the ECB extended its stimulus package and confirmed that it will remain in the market at the very least until the end of next year and likely into 2018. Some disappointment over the scaled back monthly purchase volumes and the fact that Draghi didn’t opt for the more controversial measures, such as a foray into stock markets, or purchases of bank bonds, together with concerns about the rise of protectionist forces on the world stage may have limited the pick up in confidence, but the strong orders numbers may also go some way to underpin sentiment. As the ECB has effectively set out the policy parameters for next year already data releases at the moment will have less impact than usually, however.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. to register for FREE!


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 14th December 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th December 2016.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets were trading mixed with all eyes on the Fed and the FOMC announcement today. The Hang Seng managed slight gains helped by gains in China’s two largest energy companies amid reports of a fuel price increase and a pipeline sale. Ther Nikkei 225 close flat at 19,253. U.S. stock futures are also narrowly mixed and the FTSE 100 future is down with investors holding back, which could see European markets give up some of yesterday’s broad gains. Oil prices have fallen back again and the front end WTI future is trading around USD 52.40per barrel and Gold is up around USD 1162 . The focus on the U.S., where a 25 bp hike is widely expected, will overshadow the European calendar today, which includes U.K. labour market numbers, Eurozone production data as well as final November inflation data from France and Italy.
The U.S. trade price report revealed only modest November price drop-backs in the face of a soaring dollar, with relative price firmness for exports versus imports as seen throughout 2016 that beat estimates and prompted a downward revision in our November trade deficit forecast to $42.0 bln from $42.5 bln. We saw November trade price drops of 0.3% for imports and just 0.1% for exports, with a 4.7% oil import price decline and a 0.6% food export price rise. Import prices have received a big lift since February from the rebound in oil prices, and ex-oil trade prices received a lift through mid-year from a drop in the dollar between January and April. Yet, the dollar has reversed course since the Brexit and U.S. elections, leaving downward pressure on prices beyond oil price gains that accompany ongoing headwinds from the global growth slowdown, petro-sector dislocation, and the inventory overhang that has reversed course in Q3-Q4.
Reuters Report: Brexit could hit trade relations between Britain and the U.S, with nearly 40 percent of American firms considering moving their British office to the EU and two-thirds saying the vote is impacting investment choices, according to a survey.Food and beverage, life sciences and financial services firms were most likely to consider relocating whilst aerospace firms were the least likely, the survey by law firm Gowling WLG said.Nearly all the 533 companies surveyed said they would require some third-party support to deal with the transition as Britain leaves the European Union, potentially risking part of the close transatlantic relationship between the two nations. “The strong UK-U.S. trade relationship that has been carefully nurtured over the past fifty years is in serious jeopardy,” said Bernardine Adkins, the firm’s Head of EU, Trade and Competition. Cable trades up this morning at 1.2675 forom overnight lows of 1.2640.
FX Update: Narrow ranges have been the order of the day so far in currency markets as markets hunker down into the Fed’s policy announcement and guidance, which will come with updated economic forecasts from the central bank. EUR-USD drifted about 25 pips, back to around 1.0650, but has remained below yesterday’s six-day peak at 1.0667. USD-JPY dipped under 115.0, moderately lower. Japan’s Q4 Tankan business conditions survey saw the large manufacturers headline lift to 10 from 8 in the last quarter, as expected but nonetheless disappointing as improvement was concentrated only in the petroleum and coal sector. The figure for large service companies was unchanged at 18, slightly below the median forecast. AUD-USD managed to recover modest intraday losses seen after the Westpac Australian consumer confidence gauge fell to a nine-month low in the December survey, which has generally been taken as a bad sign ahead of the Christmas holiday period. The Aussie buck lifted back above 0.7500, leaving a low at 0.7481.

Main Macro Events Today

• 
  
  
  • FOMC – The Forecast revisions along with the FOMC statement, should reveal boosts in the PCE Chain price forecasts for 2016, downward 2016 jobless rate revisions , and a narrowing in 2016 GDP 1.8%. For the following year’s growth and inflation prospects are likely to be tweaked upwards. Expectations remain for median forecasts that the FOMC will look for two tightening’s per year with a slightly steeper pace.

• 
  
  
  • U.S. Retail Sales – November retail sales data is out today and should reveal a 0.4% headline increase with the ex-autos component up 0.5%. This follows respective October figures of 0.8% for both the headlines and ex-autos figure. The balance of risk is firmly to the upside as chain store sales, gasoline prices and construction employment all bode well for November data.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.