Daily Market Analysis from Hotforex Broker

[HFM]

Date : 6th June 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th June 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly posting losses. Japanese stocks dropped as the Yen surged to the highest level in more than a month, but it was Australia’s ASX that posted the sharpest losses, as the RBA left rates on hold as expected and highlighted that “slow growth in real wages” is weighing on consumption. Hang Seng and CSI 300 managed to move higher, underpinned by developers. U.S. and U.K. stock futures, however, are also heading south. After a long run, higher equity markets are turning cautious amid lingering concerns over the global growth outlook and ahead of key monetary policy decisions in Europe and the U.S. as well as the U.K. election on Thursday, with the latter looking tighter than expected. Oil extended declines as traders shrugged off the impact of Qatar’s isolation. The front end WTI future is currently trading at USD 47.12 per barrel.

US reports: revealed a firm round of May ISM-NMI figures, while March U.S. factory goods data fell slightly short of assumptions in April after small upward March revisions across factory orders, shipments and inventories to leave a neutral report. The April data for factory orders, shipments, and inventories were a tad light, and though the expected Q1 productivity boost to a flat figure from a 0.6% decline, there was also a huge downwards Q4 revisions in hourly compensation and unit labor costs that were a bit bigger than expected after the last income report. For the ISM-NMI, the headline slipped to a still-firm 56.9 in May from 57.5, while the ISM-adjusted ISM-NMI fell slightly to 56.3 from an 18-month high of 56.5.

Eurozone May composite PMI confirmed at 56.8, as expected, with the services reading revised up slightly to 56.3 from 56.2 reported initially. The services PMI still fell back slightly in April, but the composite held steady not just versus the preliminary number but also April. Readings suggest a consolidation of overall growth at high levels, with growth continuing to run at the fastest pace in six years and supported by strong growth of incoming new business, which will add to the arguments of the hawks at the ECB on Thursday. Germany and France were the main driver, with German growth underpinned by a robust manufacturing sector and French growth driven by the services sector. Both countries also reported stronger rates of overall job creation, which is encouraging, and suggests companies continue to invest in the recovery.

UK Election: Conservatives lead at 11 points according to the latest survey by ICM, with support for the Conservative Party’s at 45% versus 34% for the Labour Party. The survey was conducted between Friday and Sunday, with some of the response coming after the terrorist attack on Saturday night in London. The outcome is down 12 point lead that the previous ICM poll showed, though is well up on the poll by Survation that showed the Conservatives with only a 6 point advantage over Labour, and is more consistent with the FT’s poll tracker, which shows the Conservatives at 44% versus Labour’s 36%.

Main Macro Events Today

• US JOLTS – April JOLTS, a favorite of Chair Yellen, will nevertheless be overlooked as the report is two months in arrears. April JOLTS, expected at 5.650M from 5.743M reported for March.

• Canadian Ivey PMI – The Ivey PMI is expected to improve to a seasonally adjusted 62.0 in May from 62.4 in April.

• NZD GDT – New Zealand’s Q1 manufacturing report may be of some interest today, which expected to present a 0.3% rise from 0.8% presented last time.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 7th June 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th June 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly posting modest gains. Japanese indices managed to recover losses as the Yen dipped. Mainland Chinese markets outperformed and rallied led by consumer shares. After underperforming recently amid government efforts to boost deleveraging, it seems there is some value buying in the CSI 300, which is up 1.22%, while the Hang Seng is up a mere 0.01% and ASX and Nikkei around 0.20%. U.K. and U.S. futures are also higher and the move back into stocks could see yields coming up from yesterday’s lows. However, investors are likely to remain cautious and take a wait and see stance ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting, U.K. election and Comey testimony in the U.S. Today’s calendar will start U.K. house price data and Italian retail sales as well as the OECD’s economic outlook for the Eurozone.

FX Update: The dollar found its feet against most currencies, firming up modestly from recent lows. USDJPY settled around 109.50 in Tokyo after logging a six-week high at 109.22 yesterday, which was the culmination of a three-session tumble from the upper 111.0s. EURUSD ebbed to around 1.1260-65. AUDUSD was an exception to the dollar-finding-a-footing story, as the Aussie buck rallied on the release of the Australian Q1 GDP report, which came in with 0.3% q/q growth, well off the 1.1% q/q growth seen in the previous quarter and matching economists’ median expectation, although there had been some market fears of a negative print (following weak retail sales and capex data over the quarter). The Australian economy hasn’t seen a recession in 103 quarters now (just one quarter shy of 26 years), which apparently matches the Netherland’s growth run (according to Reuters). AUDUSD gained 0.5% in making a 0.7543 peak, which is the loftiest level seen since May 2.

German April manufacturing orders clumped -2.1% m/m, more than anticipated and driven mainly by a -3.4% m/m drop in export orders. After two very strong months, the correction, still saw the annual rate jumping to 3.3% y/y from 2.4% y/y. So again something for both the doves and the hawks at the ECB to argue with, especially as confidence data for May already suggest a rebound ahead.

US Reports: U.S. JOLTS 259k up to 6,044k in April, a new record high, after rising 103k to 5,785k in March. The job opening rate rose to 4.0% from 3.8%. Openings are up 401k from a year ago. However, hirings dropped 253k to 5,051k following a 55k gain to 5,304k. The rate slid to 3.5% from 3.6%. That could be a function of a lack of skilled labor. Meanwhile, separations declined 225k to 4,973k after bouncing 190k to 5,198k previously. The rate dropped to 3.4% from 3.6%. Also, quitters declined 111kk to 3,027k after rebounding 102k to 3,138k. The rate also dipped to 2.1% from 2.2% (revised from 2.1%). The mix of data support notions of a strong labor market.

Main Macro Events Today

• UK House Prices – May’s Halifax bank of Scotland will be released today the change in house prices, which is expected to be unchanged quarterly and monthly as well.

• US Consumer Credit – April consumer credit is expected to increase $17.0 bln after an $16.4 bln gain in March. Increases in non-revolving credit are leading the largest series of gains since 2001. Market risk is minimal, as consumer credit data is typically ignored by the market.

• Oil Inventories – Oil inventories from US will be out today as well and expected to reduce to -3.4M from -6.4M last week.

• Canadian Building Permits – Building permits values are projected to rebound 2.4% m/m in April after the 5.8% drop in March.

• Japanese GDP – Japan revised Q1 GDP is likely to be revised slightly higher at 0.6% from 0.5% given the stronger than expected capex. April current account and May bank lending are also on tap, with the latter having held at 3.0% y/y over the past couple of months.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 8th June 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th June 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly slightly higher, with Japanese markets underperforming and marginally in the red, as the Yen strengthened and GDP data missed expectations by a wide margin. U.K. and U.S. futures are also up after Comey’s written statement ahead of today’s testimony helped to underpin U.S. markets Wednesday. In Europe markets await the ECB meeting and the U.K. general election, although first results are not expected until after market close. Bund futures were initially boosted yesterday by reports that the ECB will cut its inflation forecast today, but quickly started to head south again and while Draghi and Praet may be eager to keep any changes to the forward guidance to a minimum today, this won’t change the fact that the ECB is heading for tapering next year. In the U.K. the outcome of the election will have an impact for Brexit talks and while latest polls still give PM May the lead, her majority may not be as large, as she hoped when she called the election and the outside risk of a hung parliament would hurt U.K. markets.

FX Update: Super Thursday is here and caution is in the air in forex markets. The dollar majors and most of the main cross rates have been plying narrow ranges into the London interbank open. EURUSD has settled in the mid 1.12s, up from the low seen at 1.1204 yesterday in the wake of the Bloomberg report citing officials suggesting that the ECB will lower inflation forecasts. We still anticipant that the central bank will at its meeting today neuter the easing bias. USDJPY has ebbed back to the mid 109.0s during the Asian session today after briefly taking a look above 110.00. Aside from the ECB meeting, we have the UK election (were there is an outside risk of there being a hung parliament), and the testimony of ex-FBI director Comey (where markets will be alert for any devil in the detail following the unexpected publication of the written testimony yesterday, which didn’t really tell us anything new). We recommend fading any gains in USDJPY.

German April industrial production rose 0.8% m/m, more than expected and with March revised up to -0.1% m/m from -0.4% m/m reported initially. Production was mainly boosted by energy, which rebounded 5.7% m/m, after a slump of -4.3% in March, as a late spell of cold weather hit the country in April. Similarly, to orders data yesterday, the annual rate actually improved marginally and now stands at 2.8% y/y, up from 2.2% y/y in the previous month. Manufacturing was up 0.4% m/m and 2.1% y/y and together with robust survey numbers the data still sees the recovery intact and Germany heading for solid growth in Q2.

Main Macro Events Today

• UK Elections – UK Elections are due today, although first results are not expected until after market close.The outcome of the election will have an impact for Brexit talks and while latest polls still give PM May the lead, her majority may not be as large, as she hoped when she called the election and the outside risk of a hung parliament would hurt U.K. markets.

• ECB Preview – The ECB is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged and confirm the QE schedule for the rest of the year. The key question is if and how far the ECB will tweak its forward guidance and whether the easing bias will finally be scrapped. Leaked ECB reports yesterday confirmed what it is expected, that the updated set of forecasts tomorrow, will bring downward revisions to the inflation forecast, which means Draghi and Praet will have good arguments when they urge for caution to changes in the central bank’s communication and forward guidance.

• EU GDP – The final Q1 GDP data for the Eurozone is likely to stay unchanged at 0.5%

• US Jobless Claims – Initial claims data should decline to 240k from 248k last week and 235k in the week prior.

• Canadian Housing Stats & Gov. Poloz Speech – May housing starts are expected to moderate to a 200.0k pace from 213.1k in April, as activity further unwinds from the lofty 252.3k rate in March. The April new home price index is also due today, while BOC Governor Poloz is due to speak today, in Ottawa.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 9th June 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th June 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Of yesterday’s key events it was the U.K. election that brought the biggest bombshell, with the U.K. heading for a hung parliament according to the latest projections. The Pound slumped, but FTSE 100 futures are moving higher, after a largely positive session in Asia, and modest gains on Wall Street yesterday. The Hang Seng was underperforming as U.K. linked shares dipped, but Hong Kong’s index is still heading for a weekly gain amid fears of overheating. Eurozone markets got a boost yesterday from the ECB’s dovish tone, which should put a rest to tapering talk at least for now. Reports that there won’t be an early election in Italy helped Italian bonds and stock markets to outperform. However, political uncertainty in the U.K. will also hang over Brexit talks and EU officials will likely rather want clarity about the U.K.’s negotiating positions as talks are set to start this month. JP Morgan previously argued that a hung parliament could ultimately support the pound if it leads to a coalition that takes a softer approach to Brexit, for now though the slump in the Pound should weigh on Gilts, while Bund futures continued to rise in after hour trade yesterday and should remain underpinned by the ECB’s cautious approach to exit steps. Today’s data calendar started with German trade early in the session, and French production, while later on we will see U.K. production and trade numbers.

UK election delivered an unexpected hung parliament outcome, based on projections with 600 of the 650 seats having been declared The Conservative Party is set to come in short of the 326-majority threshold with 316 seats, while Labour is set to come in with 265 (gaining 33), the LibDems with 13 (up five), and the SNP (Scottish National Party) with 34 seats (down 22). The pound lost 2% following exit polls last yesterday which accurately portended this outcome. A period of political deal making now lies ahead in the UK, which may be complicated by an uncertain fate of the prime minister, May, who has lost a lot of political capital after calling the snap election back in April and has seen a 20-point poll lead evaporate. The most obvious alliance would be a Tory-LibDem coalition, as was seen following the 2010 election, which would likely result in a net softer stance on Brexit. Uncertainty now looms., and the June 19 start date for EU exit negotiations looks to be in jeopardy. One takeaway forms the election is that a second Scottish independence referendum now looks a lot less likely, with the SNP having lost 22 seats.

ECB drops easing bias on rates, while leaving current policy rates and QE schedule unchanged. Draghi finally admitted that deflation risks have disappeared and removed the easing bias on rates, the doves are keeping a joker up their sleeves and maintain that QE can still be extended in duration or size. So not quite a neutral stance yet, despite the improvements noted for the growth outlook. In US on the other hand, the major event yesterday was Comey’s Testimony, which turned US Markets negative with both stocks and bonds. Comey started his testimony saying that defamation of him and the FBI by Trump publicly were outright “lies, plain and simple.”Trump lawyer Kasowitz released a press statement following Comey testimony, saying the testimony confirms Trump never sought to impede the Russia investigation, while Trump never directed or suggested Comey stop investigating anyone, including Flynn. Further, Trump never told Comey “I need loyalty” in form or substance. He also attacked Comey for admitting leaking “privileged communications” with Trump. Markets remain of two minds, wanting a relief rally on stocks, but cautious ahead of UK election returns.

Main Macro Events Today

• UK PM May Speech – UK Prime Minister Teresa May expected to give a speech today in London, about the UK general Elections.

• UK Production & trade Balance – April’s production data are out today, with Manufacturing Production anticipated to rise for April at 0.9% versus the -0.6% last month. Industrial data expected to rise as well at 0.8 % from -0.5 %. Goods trade Balance should increase slightly to -12B from -13.4B.

• Canadian Labour Data – May Employment Change for Canada should post a 11K headline, from 3.2K in April and down from 19.4K in March. The unemployment rate expected at 6.6% up from 6.5% in April.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 12th June 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th June 2017.

FX News Today

The FOMC decision and projections will be front and center this week. The ebb of inflation pressures and cooling of policy expectations will be food for thought for the FOMC. But, that shouldn’t deter the Committee from hiking rates by 25 bps Wednesday to 1.00-1.25%. However, with the slowing in U.S. inflation dynamics, the downward revision in the ECB’s inflation outlook, alongside the drop in energy prices, the political morass and latent tech volatility will give Fed doves more ammo to argue for a less aggressive normalization path, especially amid the likely delays in tax reform and other fiscal measures.

United States: The U.S. economic calendar may be overshadowed by the FOMC meeting, but there will be several relevant data releases that could give the markets and Fed pause by impacting views of the future, especially CPI and retail sales. Headline CPI (Wednesday) may slump 0.1% from 0.2%. Retail sales (Wednesday) are forecast to drop 0.1% in May or flat ex-auto, still struggling to regain lost momentum. Headline May PPI (Tuesday) is seen sinking 0.2% from 0.5%; core may rise 0.2% vs 0.4% or 2.0% y/y. Business inventories are also on tap (Wednesday), projected to sink 0.2% in April. The Treasury budget gap (Monday) is expected to hit -$87 bln for May, a 66% deterioration from -$52.5 bln a year ago. After the FOMC decision on Wednesday there will be a rash of data (Thursday) after the fact. Philly Fed index is seen falling to 22.0 in June from 38.8; Empire State may rebound to 6.0 in Jun from -1.0; import prices are seen flat in May, export prices may rise 0.2%; initial jobless claims are expected to dip 6k to 239k for the June 10 week; industrial production is forecast to be flat in May, while capacity use holds steady at 76.7%. NAHB housing market index may slip to 69 in June from 70.

Canada: The Canadian calendar is relatively thin after the busy start to the month. The manufacturing report (Thursday) is the main data feature this week, with shipment values expected to rise 0.7% m/m in April after the 1.0% gain in March. Another installment of housing data is due, with May existing home sales (Thursday) and the Teranet/National Bank HPI (Wednesday) scheduled for release. The April international securities transactions report will be available on Friday. Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins delivers a speech titled “Canadian Economic Update: Strength in Diversity.” Monday’s speech is scheduled for release at 13:20 ET.

Europe: This week’s set of data releases, focuses mainly on final inflation data for May, which are unlikely to bring major surprises. The most important number will be German ZEW investor confidence (Tuesday) for June. A modest rise expected in the headline reading to 21.0 from 20.6 in the previous month, backed by the ECB’s cautious approach to exit steps and the improved overall economic outlook, which has been underpinning stock markets. Inflation data should confirm the German HICP rate at 1.4%, the French at 0.9% and the overall Eurozone number (Friday) at 1.4% y/y. The ECB already cut back its inflation projections at the July meeting as oil price developments mean the trajectory is lower than previously thought and while growth is improving and employment picking up, this has at least so far not led to a broad rise in wages. So the central bank can afford to take a relaxed stance on exit steps, even as growth forecasts are being revised up. Other data releases include Eurozone production and trade data for April. Germany will sell 10-year Bunds on Wednesday.

UK: Markets this week will be looking to see how secure prime minister May is as she lost a lot of political capital with her decision to call a snap election having backfired spectacularly. There are also big questions about how effective the new, fragile government will be in implementing policy, and what this will mean for the UK’s Brexit negotiation stance. So far, both May and the EU have stressed that there should be no delay in getting down to Brexit negotiations, which are due to commence on June 19. The calendar picks up a gear this week. Top of the list is the BoE MPC’s June policy meeting (announcement Thursday), where the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street is widely expected to leave policy settings unchanged. The tone of the minutes will interest, and given the tricky political backdrop will likely show a stepped-up degree of dovishness while remaining in the bounds of an overall neutral policy stance. Data is highlighted by May inflation figures (Tuesday). Labor market data, meanwhile, (Wednesday) has us anticipating an unchanged 4.6% reading in unemployment. Average household income data will be scrutinized for signs of weakness. We see retail sales (Thursday) contracting by 1.0% m/m in official May data, expecting payback after a stellar 2.3% m/m gain in April.

Japan: In Japan, the MoF June business outlook survey (Tuesday) is expected at 0.6 from 1.1 previously. Wednesday brings revised April industrial production. The BoJ will announce its policy intentions on Friday, with the two-day meeting unlikely to result in any changes, though reports last week indicated the Bank may upgrade its economic outlook, while lowering its inflation forecasts.

China: In China, May industrial production (Wednesday) is expected to slip to a 6.3% y/y pace from 6.5% in April, while May retail sales (Wednesday) should tick up to 10.8% y/y from 10.7%. May fixed investment (Wednesday) is estimated up 8.7% y/y from 8.9%. India May CPI (Monday) is expected to dip to 2.3% y/y from 3.0%, while April industrial production (Monday) should remain steady at 2.7% y/y. The May trade deficit (Wednesday) is set to narrow to $12.0 bln from $13.2 bln, as May WPI (Wednesday) is forecast to fall to 2.9% y/y from 3.9%

Australia: Australia’s calendar has May employment (Thursday), projected to expand 15.0k after the 37.4k gain in April. The unemployment rate is expected at 5.7%, identical to the 5.7% in April. There are two speeches by Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Debelle this week: The first speech is on Monday to the Global FX Code of Conduct Launch in Hong Kong (by video.) The second speech is on Thursday, at the Thomson Reuters Industry event in Sydney.

New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar is highlighted by Q1 GDP (Thursday), expected to improve 0.9% after the 0.4% gain in Q4 (q/q, sa). The current account (Wednesday) is seen improving to a NZ$1.3 bln surplus from the -NZ$2.3 bln deficit in Q4. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on June 22.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 13th June 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th June 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets mostly moved higher, although Nikkei and CSI remained marginally in the red, while Hang Seng and especially ASX moved higher, led by Commonwealth Bank of Australia. The tech rout that hit markets yesterday has started to calm down as the Nasdaq 100 managed to pare losses going into yesterday’s close. Investors remained largely defensive though in Japan ahead of the Fed meeting, but U.S and FTSE 100 futures are moving up. Oil prices are also higher on the day and the front end Nymex future is trading at USD 46.33 per barrel. Today’s calendar has inflation readings from Spain, Sweden and the U.K., with the latter seen falling back slightly to 2.6% y/y (med 2.7%) from 2.7% in April. German ZEW investor confidence meanwhile is expected to rise to 21.0 (med 21.5) from 20.6 in May. Meanwhile there are reports that Labour and Conservative MPs are “plotting” to force PM May to take a soft Brexit stance, while the Prime Minister continues to reshuffle her team and politics.

U.S. reports: Budget deficit widened to $88 bln in May just wide of median $87.0 bln, a large deterioration from the $53 bln deficit in May of last year. This estimate roughly aligns with the CBO Monthly Budget Review released June 7 as a change in the corporate tax deadline appeared to pull those dollars into April.

UK: Moody warned yesterday that UK’s minority government poses a “credit negative” risk. The prime minister’s Conservative Party is forming a government with Northern Ireland’s DUP, with the combined seat total standing at a weak 328 out of 650 parliamentary seats. Things have settled yet, just one week ahead of the start of EU exit negotiations, as there is pressure on the prime minister to resign following a disastrous election campaign. A snap poll of 700 member of the UK’s Institute of Directors found a “dramatic drop” in confidence following the hung parliament outcome of the election last Thursday.

Main Macro Events Today

• UK CPI – Data is highlighted by May inflation figures today, where CPI expected to stay unchanged after logging a 2.7% cycle high in April. This would fit the BoE view. The central bank has clearly signaled that it is looking through the current phase of above-target inflation, anticipating a return to 2.0% target next year.

• German ZEW – After slightly mixed survey data in May, German ZEW investor confidence for June expected to rise in the headline reading to 21.5 from 20.6 in the previous month, backed by the ECB’s cautious approach to exit steps and the improved overall economic outlook, although with the ECB meeting as well as the U.K. election last Thursday much could depend on when the answers got in and uncertainty about Brexit prospects, global political events and the prospect of further rate hikes in the U.S. will likely weigh on sentiment.

• US PPI – Headline May PPI is seen sinking 0.0% from 0.5%; core may rise 0.2% vs 0.4% or 2.0% y/y.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 14th June 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th June 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets were mixed, with Chinese stocks under pressure as financial and developers headed south. The CSI 300 lost more than 1% and the Hang Seng is down 0.2%, while Nikkei and ASX are moving higher. Financials also weighed on Japan’s stock markets, while defensive stocks gained ahead of the FOMC announcement, leaving the Nikkei up a modest 0.2%, while the ASX 200 gained 0.8%. FTSE 100 futures are up, as Sterling is under pressure again, while U.S. futures are down ahead. All eyes are on the Fed which is expected to hike rates by 25 bp, but may not give details on balance sheet normalization yet. There is speculation that China’s central bank may follow, which is adding to pressure on Chinese markets. China industrial production and retail sales growth were unchanged from the previous month. The European calendar has U.K. labour market data and EMU production numbers.

FX Update: The dollar majors have been settled in narrow ranges into the Fed’s policy announcement and statement. EURUSD has been orbiting 1.1200 and USDJPY has continued to oscillate around the 110.00 level. Sterling has steadied after rebounding some of the ground lost since last week’s UK election, with markets buoyed by prospects for a softer Brexit stance, though concerns about the viability of the new, fragile minority government, along with the prime minister’s future, remain. As for the Fed, a 25bp hike is widely expected while there is a degree of uncertainty about what tone the central bank’s guidance will take. The Fed expected to stick with its tightening bias but may signal a lowered pace of policy normalization, which will be accompanied with reduced growth forecasts. Overall, much of this will have been discounted by markets, though we see some risk for dollar gains on the view that the Fed leaves the door open for another 25bo rate hike before year-end.

U.S. reports: Flat May U.S. PPI headline with a 0.3% core price increase beat estimates with a largely expected 3.0% drop for the goods component. There were no revisions to April’s 0.5% headline jump and the 0.7% surge in the ex-food and energy component. On an annual basis, PPI slowed to 2.4% y/y compared to 2.5% y/y for April. But the core rate rose to 2.1% y/y versus 1.9% y/y. Goods prices declined 0.5% on the month, versus the prior 0.5% rise, with energy tumbling 3.0% and food costs dipping 0.2%. Services prices rose 0.3% following the 0.4% April gain, with trade prices climbing 1.1% and transportation/warehousing costs falling 0.5%. The PPI report isn’t usually a market mover, however U.S. equities have recovered somewhat to start the session in the wake of the 0.3% core PPI rise, following a shallow recovery in global stocks after two days of U.S. tech sector liquidation.

Final May German HICP inflation was confirmed at 1.4% y/y, as expected and down from 2.0% y/y in April. The Easter effect was largely to blame for the sharp swings over the past months, with holiday related prices spiking in April only to fall back again after the end of the Easter holidays. Energy prices increases also fell back again in May and added to the drop in the annual rate, as gas prices declined -3.4% y/y and prices for heading rose 11.7% y/y, down from 30.1% y/y in the previous month. The German economy may be steaming ahead and the labour market looking increasingly tight, but so far at least that has not led to a substantial uptick in wages, which is what is also keeping the ECB on hold, despite stronger growth numbers.

Main Macro Events Today

• US CPI – May CPI data should reveal a -0.1% headline with the core rate up 0.2%. This follows April figures which had the headline up 0.2% and the core up 0.1%. If data in line with forecast would leave the headline y/y rate slowing to 1.9% from 2.2% in April and the core y/y rate ticking down to 1.8% from 1.9% in the month prior.

• US Retail Sales – May retail sales data is out today and should post a 0.1% headline decline a flat ex-autos figure. This follow the April report which revealed a 0.4% headline and a 0.3% core pace. The report faces downside risks from the weak auto sales data and an anticipated decline in gasoline prices which could weigh on gas station sales.

• FOMC Meeting – The Fed began its 2-day meeting, with widespread expectations for a 25 bp increase in the rate band to 1.0% to 1.25%. What will be crucial for the markets is the tone of the statement and what policymakers suggest about the path of normalization. The Committee is likely to leave its dot forecast of three tightenings this year unchanged, as the tight labor market should offset the slowing in Q1 growth and the softening in inflation. While the risks to the economy should remain balanced, it will be interesting if the tone is a little more dovish given the slowing in Q1 and other more recent data.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 15th June 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th June 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed south, after the Fed hiked rates and tweaked reinvestments. Financials and exporters were under pressure, while defensive stocks held up. There is speculation that the BoJ could make some inference to exit strategies at its upcoming meeting, which could boost the Yen and hurt exporters. Still, the -0.35% drop in the Nikkei is modest, compared to the sell offs in Hang Seng and ASX 200, which both lost more than 1%. Investors trying to place funds into superannuation accounts in a bid to avoid regulatory changes coming into effect on July 1 were said to have underpinned yesterday’s rally in the ASX, but with AUD on the rise, stocks are under pressure. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also down. The Fed may have been less dovish than some expected, while U.S. data release yesterday were disappointing and sparked fresh concerns about the health of the global economy. With the Fed turns out of the way, the focus turns to BoE and SNB meetings today, with both central banks expected to keep policy steady. The data calendar has final May HICP from France and Italy, as well as U.K. retail sales and EMU trade data.

FOMC hiked the funds rate band by 25 bps, as widely expected, to a 1.00% to 1.25% band. In a surprise, however, the Fed outlined details on balance sheet normalization, stating it intends to start the unwinding process this year if the economy evolved as anticipated, Yellen said that the Fed could implement the balance sheet unwind “fairly soon,” if the economy continues to perform as expected. The Fed also outlined it’s initial cap sizes. The dot plot was also little changed from March, and suggests yet one more tightening this year. The statement noted the economy continues to expand moderately, and while job gains have moderated, they have been solid nevertheless. Household spending has picked up, and business investment has continued to expand. The Fed noted the recent decline in inflation, but said it’s expected to stabilize around the 2% objective over the medium term. Risks are roughly balanced but the Committee will monitor inflation closely. The dove Kashkari dissented in favor of an unchanged stance. The tone of the statement, and the fact that the Committee still plans to start balance sheet normalization this year, is a tad less dovish than the market had priced in after the CPI and retail sales data.

U.S. reports: revealed a weak round of May retail sales and CPI data. The US May CPI drop by 0.1% while U.S. retail sales underperformed with a 0.3% May headline and ex-auto drop, following tiny revisions that were upward in April but downward in March. We also saw a 0.2% April business inventory drop, though this decline was expected. For retail sales, we saw 0.3% May headline and ex-auto drops after small prior tweaks that should allow an uptick in the savings rate to 5.4%, as consumers remain reluctant to spend despite heightened confidence. For CPI, a 0.1% May headline drop with a 0.1% core price rise rounded up from respective figures of -0.144% and 0.063%, with weakness in apparel and medical care alongside the expected 2.7% energy price drop.

Main Macro Events Today

• UK Retail Sales & BoE MPC’s Policy meeting – The Old Lady of Threadneedle Street is widely expected to leave policy settings unchanged. The tone of the minutes will interest, and given the tricky political backdrop will likely show a stepped-up degree of dovishness while remaining in the bounds of an overall neutral policy stance. We will see also today retail sales contracting by -0.8% m/m in official May data, after a stellar 2.3% m/m gain in April.

• CAD Manufacturing Shipments – Shipments expected to expand 0.7% m/m in April after the 1.0% gain in March. Manufacturing employment was nearly flat in April (-0.6k) after a 24.4k rise in March, while the latest jobs report revealed a 25.3k bounce in May.

• US Data – May trade price data is out today and should show import prices unchanged while export prices rise by 0.1% on the month. WTI prices decline by 5.1% in May which should weigh on import prices. Philly Fed index is seen falling to 24.0 in June from 38.8. Initial jobless claims are expected to dip 3k to 242k for the June 10 week; industrial production is forecast to be flat in May, while capacity use holds steady at 76.7%. NAHB housing market index may slip to 69 in June from 70.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 16th June 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th June 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: After BoE and Fed spooked markets, the BoJ’s decision to keep policy on hold and maintained its promised for ongoing stimulus. Banks and financial were underpinned and the Nikkei is currently up 0.67% on the day, the Hang Seng gained 0.33% and the ASX 0.11%, while the CSI remained slightly in the red. U.K. and US stock futures are also moving higher and Bund futures started to stabilize in after hour trade yesterday, suggesting that bond and stock markets are starting to settle after the sell off yesterday. Today’s European calendar is quiet, with only final Eurozone HICP numbers, leaving markets to ponder the implications of this month’s round of central bank announcements.

U.S. reports: revealed surprisingly robust June figures for Empire State and Philly Fed, alongside an 8k initial claims drop to a lean 237k, while industrial production revealed the expected May growth pause from factory and vehicle sector setbacks despite robust mining and utility sector growth, with May trade price weakness that accompanied downside surprises in the May CPI report. For producer sentiment, the figures are refusing to meaningfully unwind the big Q1 surge, as the Empire State index popped to a 3-year high of 19.8 while the ISM-adjusted measure rose to a 6-year high of 56.2, alongside a June Philly Fed dropped to a still-robust 27.6 alongside a June repeat of the solid 59.2 ISM-adjusted figure from May. The GDP data remain poised for a Q2-Q3 bounce despite the downdraft recent retail sales and inflation reports.

BoE Spooks Markets, SNB Firmly on Hold: The BoE left rates unchanged, but still managed to shock markets. After reacting to last year’s Brexit referendum with further easing, it seemed reasonable to assume that the BoE would take a cautious approach in the wake of the “election” chaos especially after recent data releases disappointed and showed still weak wage growth. In the event though, it seems the “hung parliament” hasn’t dented the “smooth Brexit” assumption that was the base of the May inflation report and the number of those opting for rate hikes rose to 3 from just one at the previous MPC meeting. SNB keeps policy on hold, as expected. The central bank confirmed its expansionary policy, with interest on sight deposits unchanged at -0.75% and the mid point Libor target also at -0.75%. At the same time the central bank confirmed its commitment to “remain active in the foreign exchange market as necessary, while taking the overall currency situation into consideration”. The CHF remains “significantly overvalued”, according to the central bank. And while the SNB acknowledged that the global economy strengthened further and the new baseline scenario “anticipates that economic developments will remain favorable”.

Main Macro Events Today

• EU Final HICP – Inflation data should confirm today the overall Eurozone number at 1.4% y/y.

• U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment – The first release on June Michigan Sentiment is out today and a slight increase is expected to 97.3 from 97.1 in May and 97.0 in April.

• US Housing Starts and Building Permits – May housing starts data is out today and a climb to a 1,215k is anticipated in May from 1,172k in April and 1,203k in March. Permits are seen at 1,250k from 1,228k in April and completions should improve to a 1,140k pace from 1,106k in April.

• Fedspeak – Dallas Fed moderate hawk Kaplan (voter) plans to take part in a panel discussion today at the Rotary Club from 12:45 ET.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 19th June 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th June 2017.

FX News Today

The FOMC shocked the markets with a more hawkish than expected stance last week. So too did the BoE, while recent comments from the ECB and BoC also indicate they are starting to move toward the exit. Policymakers are still focusing on inflation and growth dynamics as their guides. But with the traditional Phillips Curve relationship seemingly broken, it could be a bumpy ride for central bankers and the markets as exit strategies are mapped out.

United States: This week’s Fedspeak will be especially interesting after the 180 degree shift from the FOMC where policymakers took a decidedly hawkish spin despite soft inflation and real sector data. The Fed showed surprising resolve in its actions as it looked past the recent data disappointments after the tepid 1.2% GDP growth clip in Q1. The contingent of speakers includes several FOMC voters. On the data front, housing numbers will be scrutinized after the larger than expected 5.5% drop in housing starts in May. Existing home sales for May (Wednesday) are forecast rising 0.9% to a 5.620 mln rate after tumbling 2.3% to 5.570 mln in April. New home sales (Friday) for April are projected rebounding to a 0.580 mln rate after plunging 11.4% to 0.569 mln in April. Other data this week includes the Q1 current account (Tuesday), with the deficit expected to fall to -$128.6 bln from Q4’s -$112.4 bln. There’s also the April FHFA home price index (Thursday), the Markit manufacturing PMI (Friday), the KC Fed manufacturing survey (Thursday), and weekly jobless claims.

Canada: Canada’s calendar has wholesale trade (Tuesday), with shipment values expected to expand 0.5% m/m in April after the 0.9% bounce in March. Retail sales (Thursday) are seen growing 0.4% m/m in April. Higher gasoline prices should support retail sales, but weaker vehicle sales will weigh. The CPI (Friday) is expected to slow to a 1.4 y/y pace in May from the 1.6% growth rate that was in place during March and April. CPI is projected to grow 0.1% m/m in May after the 0.4% gain in April, as a drop-in gasoline prices weighs. There is nothing on the BoC’s schedule this week. The CPI report could impact, although Wilkins appeared unworried by the weakness in the core CPI, blaming it on past activity. Hence, another round of soft core inflation would not challenge the widespread perception that rate hikes will come sooner than had previously been expected.

Europe: The start of official Brexit negotiations has finally arrived. Today Michael Barnier, the European Commission’s Chief Negotiator and David Davis, Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, will launch Article 50 negotiations. EU 27 leaders will meet on June 22 to review the latest developments in the negotiations and in the margins of this meeting. The start of the talks may be dominated by political posturing, ultimately a hard approach from either side would only hurt the whole of Europe and an amicable deal will be in everybody’s interest. However the data calendar is pretty quiet. Preliminary Markit June PMI readings (Friday) will be the main highlights. Eurozone current account and BoP data are slated, along with preliminary consumer confidence for June. There’s also German PPI, and the final print on French Q1 GDP, expected to be confirmed at 0.4% q/q, as well as the national business confidence report. Supply comes from Germany, which issues 30-year Bunds on Thursday. The ECB’s latest economic bulletin meanwhile is likely to give merely a more detailed account of the ECB’s latest economic projections, which Draghi already presented at the last policy meeting.

UK: Data last week had shown a more acute negative growth figure, while recent sterling gains and weaker oil prices should help curb inflationary pressures, potentially offsetting hawkish arguments at the BoE. There is also the issue of a delicate political backdrop, with a much-weakened prime minister having to cobble together a deal with the DUP, a small party, in an attempt to make her minority government work. Brexit is yet another uncertainty, with negotiations due to begin on Monday. The UK calendar this week is fairly quiet. Monthly government borrowing data are due (Wednesday), while the June CBI industrial trend survey (Thursday)will highlight. A dip to a reading of +7 is expected in the total orders headline of the CBI survey, after +9 in the month prior.

Japan: The May trade report (Monday) is expected to reveal a surplus of JPY 100.0 bln, versus the JPY 481.1 bln previously. The April all-industry index (Wednesday) should rise 1.0% m/m from the prior 0.6% decline. Also, the BoJ releases the minutes to its April 26, 27 meeting (Wednesday), and Governor Kuroda will speak at the annual meeting of the National Association of Shinkin Banks. Deputy Governor Iwata will speak at a meeting of business leaders (Thursday).

Australia: Australia’s calendar is sparse this week. The Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes to the June meeting (Tuesday), where rates were held steady at 1.50%. The lack of change was expected, while the Bank maintained a note of optimism on the inflation and unemployment outlook. RBA Governor Lowe participates (Monday) in a discussion panel at the 2017 Crawford Australian Leadership Forum in Canberra. The Q1 Housing Price Index is due Tuesday, and will be of interest.

New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar is highlighted by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s meeting (Thursday). No change is expected to the current 1.75% rate setting. It’s been at this level since the predicted easing on November 10.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 20th June 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th June 2017.

FX News Today
FX News
European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, with Japan outperforming and the Nikkei up more than 1%, after the S&P 500 rose to a fresh record high and Fed’s Dudley said that U.S. expansion has “a long way to go”. Hang Seng and CSI were little changed in cautious trade ahead of the MSCI decision on the inclusion of Chinese shares in the index. The ASX meanwhile was weighed down by property shares. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also moving higher, suggesting that yesterday’s rally will be extended today. The DAX is starting to eye the 12900 marks again and the FTSE 100 is firmly above 7500. With stock markets eying new highs core yields are likely to continue to nudge higher, while? Eurozone peripheral bond markets should continue to benefit from the improvement in sentiment. Yesterday’s first official meeting of Brexit negotiators brought a conciliatory tone, but little detail apart from a time table and the confirmation that there won’t be talks on a post-Brexit trade deal alongside the divorce agreements. The calendar today remains quiet, with only Eurozone current account and BoP data.

EU and U.K. agree timetable for Brexit talks, with initial negotiating groups tackling first Citizens’ rights, financial settlement and finally other separation issues. An additional dialogue on Ireland/Northern Ireland has been launched, but there was no mention of a post-Brexit trade deal which the U.K. initially wanted to negotiate alongside the divorce terms. Nothing further really happened yesterday at the first talks between chief negotiators Barnier and Davis and the next round of talks will start on July 17, with further rounds scheduled for the weeks starting August 28,September 18 and October 9. There reportedly wasn’t an offer from the U.K. yet on the rights for the EU citizens in the U.K.

Canada U.S. lumber dispute simmers, underpinning export uncertainty: a Bloomberg article from yesterday summarizes the viewpoints of the two sides in the dispute, with the U.S. upbeat for a quick resolution while Canada is cautious. The lumber dispute is among a variety of trade issues between the two nations, but is the most prominent and dates back to the Obama administration. Other industries remain at risk of increased tariffs, with Globeandmail.com reporting that the U.S. could add steel pipe makers to its target list of Canadian industries. The ongoing jockeying for tariff protections by various U.S. industries is a timely reminder of one of the key uncertainties facing Canada’s growth outlook. Wilkins, in her speech last week that shook up the BoC policy outlook, acknowledged the political uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration. That uncertainty shows few signs of diminishing, which we suspect will help keep the current monetary policy rate intact for a while longer.

Germany: The Producer Price inflation falls back to 2.8% y/y in April from 3.4% y/y in the previous month. This is a tad lower than anticipated, with the decline in oil prices from the highs earlier in the year one of the factors bringing both producer and import price inflation down again. The ECB has already cut back its inflation projections due to a revised oil price forecast. so the data doesn’t change the ECB outlook.

Main Macro Events Today

• CAD Wholesale trade – Canada’s calendar has wholesale trade, with shipment values expected to expand 0.5% m/m in April after the 0.9% bounce in March.

• US Current Account – The Q1 current account deficit is expected to widen to -$124 bln. As a percentage of nominal GDP, the gap is expected to widen to -2.6% from -2.4%.

• SNB Jordan Speech – SNB Governing Board Chairman Thomas Jordan will be at the opening of Swiss International Finance Forum, in Bern, in which it will also be involved in a panel titled “Moving away from the expansive monetary policy: what are the effects on financial markets and the real economy?”.

• Fedspeak – VC Fischer and non-voter Rosengren will be at the podium at a conference on macro-prudential policy at the Riksbank. Also, the moderate hawkish voter Kaplan discusses monetary policy and the economy at a Commonwealth Club event. Governor Powell testifies on fostering economic growth before the Senate Banking Committee.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 21st June 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st June 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets mostly headed south, after losses on Wall Street and in Europe yesterday. MSCI finally decided to include 222 large Chinese companies in its 2018 Emerging Markets Index, and the CSI is outperforming with a 0.28% gain, while the Hang Seng is down -0.38% and the Nikkei -0.32%, with the latter weighed down by a stronger Yen. The ASX underperformed and lost more than 1% as oil prices remain under pressure. The DAX rallied to new record highs yesterday, before profit taking and a broad mover lower in global equity markets as commodity supply concerns amid rising oil production in Libya and Nigeria cast fresh doubt on the efficacy of the OPEC oil agreement while a 26% drop in Chinese steel exports added to concerns about the global growth outlook. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also down and the fresh bout of risk aversion will keep a lid on bond yields. For the Eurozone, the good news though is that peripheral yield spreads over the German benchmark didn’t blow out yesterday. Today’s data calendar remains quiet, with only U.K. public finance data and a German 30-year Bund sale.

London clearing remains bone of contention. After the EU proposal that called for greater EU oversight of clearing houses based in foreign jurisdictions and included the option of enforced relocation, BoE’s Carney yesterday suggested improved cross-border oversight of clearinghouses that should be based on “deep cooperation” between jurisdictions, adding that a clearing deal would help to keep the financial system resilient. ECB’s Coeure meanwhile stressed that the EU’s clearing regime was “never designed to cope” with major clearing houses operating outside of the EU, adding that moving clearing to within the EU’s jurisdiction would be justified if they pose a major risk to stability, as so far, the regime provides “EU authorities with very limited tools for obtaining information and taking action in the event of a crisis”. The ECB has long tried to get London clearing under its own control and while London fought back with backing from a European court, the issue is back on top of the agenda as Brexit draws nearer.

Fedspeak: Yesterday Fed’s Rosengren said low rates pose financial stability issues, in his comments at the Riksbank macroprudential conference. The Boston Fed president (not a voter this year) turned decidedly hawkish about a year ago and has maintained that outlook ever since. He believes low rates put intermediaries and economies at risk, make fighting future recessions more difficult, and make it more likely central banks will have to resort to non-traditional policies. Additionally, Fed Evans was speaking yesterday as well. Chicago Fed dove Evans said inflation needs to rise and the target should not been seen as a cap but a symmetric target, though he’s voted for rate hikes given improvement in the economy. He’s still ambivalent about the timing of the next hike, which could take place later in the year, while the global environment appears to be holding back inflation, which could allow for a shallower path of rate increases. Otherwise the economy bounced back after the election, with “quite good” fundamentals, which give inflation a chance to get back to 2%. He sees 3% growth as achievable in the short-term, but sustaining it given labor and productivity constraints is another thing, while the U.S. is fast approaching its natural rate of unemployment.

Canada: growth maintains momentum but uncertainties lurk, suggesting that while the time frame for rate hikes has been moved ahead, the Bank can maintain the current setting through mid-year at least. Of course, the upbeat (“hawkish”) view of the economy last week moved ahead expectations for lift-off, and even put the announcement next month in play. And the economic data since Wilkins/Poloz have supported the Bank’s view that the run of encouraging broad-based growth will prove sustainable. But other events have highlighted the uncertainties around Canada’s outlook. Most prominently, the plunge in WTI crude oil to a seven month low and the evolution of U.S. trade policy. The key line from Wilkins was that they are “assessing whether all of the considerable monetary stimulus presently in place is still required.” An assessment of the mix of firm economic data but weak oil/commodity and uncertain U.S. trade policy will likely keep them grounded until later this year, if not January of next year. There will be another round of BoC-speak next week (Poloz panel, Patterson speech), which will be looked to for fresh guidance on the policy outlook.

Main Macro Events Today

• US Existing Home Sales – May existing home sales data is out today and should post a 0.7% increase to a 5.610 mln pace for the month after dropping 2.3% to a 5.570 mln pace in April. The NAHB did tick higher in May with a rise to 69 from 68 in April but housing starts disappointed with a decline in the headline pace to 1.092 mln from 1.156 mln in April.

• UK Borrowing data – Monthly government borrowing data are due (today), for which a deduction to £7.3B is expected from £9.6 seen last month.

• Speeches – BoE chief Economist Andy Haldane is due to give a speech today in Yorkshire.

• RBNZ Meeting – New Zealand’s calendar is highlighted by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s meeting today. No change to the current 1.75% rate setting is expected. It’s been at this level since the predicted easing on November 10.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 22nd June 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd June 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets stabilized in China’s CSI outperformed again helped by the inclusion of 222 mainland equities in the MSSCI index. The ASX, which tanked yesterday with oil also bounced back. The front end WTI future is little changed on the day at USD 42.53, U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also little changed The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the policy rate unchanged, as expected. Bund and Gilt yields already moved higher yesterday, led by a jump in the 10-year Gilt above the 1% mark after hawkish comments from BoE’s Haldane, which sees a case for raising rates soon. Bunds outperformed, but the 10-year yield also nudged higher, while Eurozone spreads were mixed at the close with Portugal underperforming. Equity markets and oil prices remain in focus although the calendar is starting to pick up with French business confidence indicators as well as the U.K. CBI industrial trends survey and the ECB’s latest economic report. EU leaders will also start to gather for a 2-day Brexit summit, after chief negotiators from both sides met for the first time officially last Monday. The Eurozone also has preliminary consumer confidence data in the afternoon.

US Reports: A 1.1% U.S. May existing home sales bounce to a 5.62 mln rate trimmed the April drop to 5.56 mln from a 5.70 mln cycle-high in March to almost exactly track estimates, as sales gains moderate in Q2 after weather boosts in the prior two quarters. U.S. existing home sales came in on the perky side, but had little impact on forex markets. Existing home sales are on track for a 5% rise in 2017, following a 3.9% increase in 2016 and a 6.5% rise in 2015, but a 2.9% 2014 “taper-tantrum” drop. Additionally, U.S. MBA mortgage market index rose 0.6% in data released yesterday, in addition to a 1.0% drop in the purchase index and a 2.1% rise in the refinancing index for the week ended June 16. Yet the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was unchanged at a low 4.13% last week after readily absorbing the Fed’s rate hike, projections and balance sheet reduction schedule announcements.

RBNZ: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the policy rate at 1.75%, as expected. Low for long remains in place, with Wheeler again saying, “Monetary Policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period.” And a dovish bias was retained, as the Governor concluded that “Numerous uncertainties remain, and policy may need to adjust accordingly.” This was the same as in May. In March he said “Numerous uncertainties remain, particularly in respect to the international outlook, and policy will need to adjust accordingly.” In other words, it looks like they won’t hesitate to add accommodation if downside risks to the economy manifest. The onus remains on the inflation and growth data, with additional undershoots setting the stage for further easing.

UK: The new UK government’s legislative goals have been announced in the Queen’s speech. Eight of the 24 outlined are Brexit related, which include bills to convert EU rules into UK law, and others concerning such issues as trade, immigration, agriculture and sanctions. A number of key manifesto pledges have been axed or delayed as a consequence of the Conservative Party having lost its majority at the elections earlier in the month. Chancellor Hammond on Monday said that the economy would be the priority in Brexit negotiations, which appears to be position shift away from prioritizing immigration. This could potentially be supportive of the pound, though issues about the fragility of the minority government (which is reportedly struggling in negotiations with Northern Ireland’s DUP) are likely to be the overriding concern for markets. BoE Chief Economist Haldane gave a speech as well yesterday in which he said he is ready to vote for a rate hike — notable as he voted to keep policy settings unchanged last week. His vote would bring the hawks in favour of hiking the repo rate by 25bp to four — which is half of the members on the Monetary Policy Committee.

Main Macro Events Today

• US Initial Jobless Claims – Initial claims data for the week of June 17 should reveal a slight increase to 240k from 237k in the week prior and 245k in the week before that. Claims have been holding at very tight levels lately and the June average expected to be 236k, down from 241k in May and 243k in April.

• Canadian Retail Sales – Retail sales are seen growing 0.9% m/m in April, while the ex-autos sales aggregate gains 0.7%. Higher gasoline prices should support retail sales, but weaker vehicle sales will weigh.

• Fedspeak – Governor Powell testifies on fostering economic growth before the Senate Banking Committee.

• MPC Forbes Speech – BOE MPC voting member Kristin Forbes is due to give a speech today at the London Business School.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 23rd June 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd June 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are narrowly mixed in tepid markets, as oil prices stalling below USD 43 per barrel. Fed speakers didn’t challenge the path to further rate hikes and markets are taking a wait and see stance. Mainland Chinese shares are fluctuating after outperforming yesterday, FTSE 100 futures are in the red, while U.S. futures are slightly higher. A very cautious end to a volatile week then, which should leave core bonds underpinned and yields remaining low. BoE’s Forbes may have added more force to her calls for a rate hike in a speech late yesterday saying she sees “some urgency” to tighten monetary policy, but this was her last speech as she is leaving the MPC. The EU summit with May on Brexit talks, saw the British PM making an offer for the rights of EU citizens, but the devil here lies as usual in the details and the future of citizens on both sides is far from secured. The issues were not discussed at the summit and it will be up to the negotiating team to hammer out a final deal. Today’s calendar brings preliminary June PMI readings, which we expect to move sideways at high levels. France has final Q1 GDP and Italy releases orders data for April.

US Reports: 3k U.S. initial claims uptick to 241k in the BLS survey week trimmed the prior 7k drop to 238k (was 237k) from 245k at the start of June and 255k in the final week of May. Claims have undershot the 2016 average of 263k in every week of 2017, and continue to oscillate around tight levels above the 44-year low of 227k in the President’s Day week. Claims are averaging 240k in June, versus a similarly tight 241k May average, and higher prior averages of 243k in April, 251k in March, and 241k in February. Today’s 241k BLS survey week reading was above May’s 233k figure but below prior survey-week readings of 243k in April, 261k in March, and 247k in February. U.S. FHFA home price index rose 0.7% in April to 248.2, after a 0.7% March gain to 246.6. That’s up 6.8% y/y. Seven of the 9 regions surveyed posted gains.

UK: Brexit Battle Finally Gets Underway One year after the Brexit referendum official talks finally got underway. There still isn’t any clarity on how the future relationship between the U.K. and the rest of the EU will look once the U.K. exits the block. But, a year on, both sides are in a very different situation, with the EU going into the discussions strengthened, while the U.K. government is looking increasingly fragile. Central banks on both sides cautiously look on as the direction and outcome of the talks will have major implications for rates going forward.UK hints at transition period for Brexit. Chancellor of the Exchequer Hammond yesterday suggested the prospect of a four-year transitional period, adding to signs that he is pushing for a softer Brexit stance. Hammond said in a radio interview that in his view a three to four-year transitional period might be necessary, after the U.K. officially exits the EU in 2019.

Canada: Canada’s retail sales yesterday improved 0.8% m/m in April after a downwardly revised 0.5% gain in March (was +0.7%), leaving a nearly as projected gain. But the ex-autos sales aggregate surged 1.5% m/m in April following a revised 0.1% dip in March (was -0.2%), which was well in excess of projections. Higher prices played a large role in lifting the value of total and ex-autos retail sales. Total retail sales volumes were up a modest 0.3% m/m in April after the 1.1% jump in March. While the ex-autos sale aggregate came in on the firm side of projections, the gain in total sales alongside the more modest rise in sales volumes was roughly as expected.

Main Macro Events Today

• Eurozone & German PMI – A slight dip in the Eurozone manufacturing index is anticipated to 56.8 from 57.0, with a dip in the services reading to 56.2 from 56.3. Those would suggest ongoing robust activity but at a slightly slower growth pace. This scenario wouldn’t challenge the ECB’s main assumption of a recovery that is strengthening and broadening, and hence would have limited market impact. The German manufacturing index is anticipated to 59 from 59.5, with the services reading to 55.5 from 55.4.

• CAD CPI – CPI is expected to edge up 0.1% m/m in May after the 0.4% m/m gain in April. Gasoline prices dropped in in May, which drives projection for a slowing in the pace of month comparable CPI growth. The CPI is seen moderating to a 1.4% y/y pace in May from the 1.6% y/y growth rate in April.

• US PMI & New Home Sales – A slight increase in the US manufacturing index is anticipated to 53.0 from 52.7, with the services reading to 53.7 from 53.6. The New Home Sales number is also out today and an increase of 16.8% is anticipated from the -11.4% seen on April.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 27th June 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th June 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets were mixed overnight, with Japan outperforming as a weaker Yen underpinned exporters. Yesterday’s weakness in U.S. durable goods orders saw Treasury yields declining and risk appetite waning as investors starting to fret again about the health of the world economy. Oil prices are holding above USD 43 per barrel, but Hang Seng, CSI 300 and ASX are all slightly in the red as are U.K. and U.S. stock futures. This should keep Bund and Gilt futures underpinned and core yields down, especially as Draghi once again defended the ECB’s stimulus measures. Today’s data calendar has Italian confidence data as well as the U.K. CBI Retailing Survey. The ECB is hosting its annual forum in Portugal.

FX Update: The dollar majors remained in fairly narrow ranges, though there has been some movement. AUDUSD logged a one-week high of 0.7609, while USDJPY logged a five-week high at 112.07 before turning lower, to around 111.70. The retreat in USDJPY came after the U.S. said that it had detected preparations by the Syrian regime for another chemical attack, with the White House warning that Damascus would pay a “heavy price” in the event it launched another chemical attack. The oil price rebound flagged, and the global stock market rally sputtered in Asia, a backdrop conducive for yen buying. Elsewhere, EURUSD has continued to gravitate toward the 1.1200 level, with the market lacking directional ambition, despite lower U.S. yields following weaker headline durables data yesterday, and a softening in the price indicators in the Dallas Fed index. Cable has been settled in the lower 1.27s, below yesterday’s eight-day high at 1.2759. USDCAD has settled near 1.3250, above yesterday’s 1.3212 low.

US Reports: The U.S. durables report revealed a 1.1% May headline orders drop with a 3.4% transportation orders decline and a 0.1% ex-transportation rise that tracked our estimates. We saw a 10.2% May defense orders plunge, mixed equipment data, a lean 0.2% inventory gain and a firm 0.8% durable shipments rise that was in line with our 2.4% Q2 GDP estimate, after an assumed Q1 trimming to 0.9% from 1.2%. U.S. Chicago Fed National Activity Index dropped to -0.26 in May after jumping to 0.57 in April (that was the highest point since 0.59 from March 2014; the index was as low as -0.84 in July 2013). Additionally, yesterday U.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing index slipped to 15.0 in June after edging up to 17.2 in May from 16.8 in April. The rise to 24.5 in February put the level at its highest since early 2006. It was generally in negative territory from January 2015 through September 2016. Despite the headline declines, it’s still a pretty solid report.

Draghi raises concerns over Greek debt sustainability. The central bank head said in a letter to an EU lawmaker that “until sufficient detail has been provided on the debt measures, serious concerns persist regarding the sustainability of Greece’s public debt”. Currently ECB staff is not “in a position to complete a fully-fledged debt-sustainability analysis of Greece’s public debt”. Greece has been pushing for the ECB to include Greek debt in QE purchases, but Draghi’s comments highlight again that that is still unlikely in the near future.

Main Macro Events Today

• ECB’s Draghi – ECB’s President Draghi speaks today at the ECB forum in Central Bank in Portugal at 08:00 GMT.

• BOE – Financial stability Report is out today for the 1st time this year from BOE. Meanwhile Gov Carney is due to speak today about Stability Report in London at 10:00 GMT
• U.S. Consumer Confidence – June consumer confidence data should reveal a dip in the headline to 116.0 from 117.9 in May and 119.4 in April. Confidence measures are still hovering near post-recession highs but there is some downside risk to the release as we saw a decline in the first Michigan headline to 94.5 from 97.1 last month.

• AUS Gov. G. Debelle – Deputy Governor Guy Debelle speaks at the Global FX Code of Conduct Launch (via video link). The Reserve Bank of Australia next meets on July 4th. We expect no change to the current 1.50% rate setting.

• Fedspeak – Fedspeak will resume with Chair Yellen atop the roster this week, as she will take part in a conversation with Lord Nicholas Stern, president of the British Academy on “Global Economic Issues” today from 13 ET. SF Fed’s Williams speaks on “The Global Growth Slump” from Australia at 4:05 ET, followed by Philly Fed’s Harker on the economic outlook and trade from 11:15 ET and Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari takes town hall Q&A from 17:30 ET.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 28th June 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th June 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets mostly headed south, with Australia’s ASX a notable exception. Elsewhere markets followed Wall Street lower, after the delay to a U.S. healthcare reform vote and with Draghi’s comments yesterday serving as a reminder that central bank support has peaked and that rates will trend higher. Losses in Nikkei and Hang Seng seemed more muted though and the ASX actually managed to move higher, as oil prices hold above USD 44 per barrel. Equally, the uptick in long yields looked less severe in Asia and with the first round of preliminary June inflation data out of the Eurozone today likely to show a drop in the headline rate, even Eurozone markets, which were knocked off balance by Draghi yesterday, should start to settle. Lower inflation numbers over the next days and likely comments from officials trying to play down the impact of Draghi’s remarkets should see bonds settling again. The calendar has EMU M3, preliminary Italian HICP, US Pending Home Sales and US Crude Oil Inventories.

U.S. reports: revealed June gains for both consumer and business confidence, as the various “soft” measures continue to overshoot “hard” data forecasts despite modest pull-backs from Q1 highs. For consumer confidence, we saw a June bounce to 118.9 from 117.6 (was 117.9) in May, leaving a fourth consecutive reading above what was once the 16-year high of 116.1 in February, versus the new 16-year high of 124.9 in March. The Richmond Fed index bounced to 7.0 in June from 1.0 in May, versus a 7-year high of 22.0 in March, while the ISM-adjusted Richmond Fed bounced to 54.0 from 51.7 in May, versus a 7-year high of 59.2 in March. Yesterday’s Dallas Fed index bucked the trend thanks to recent oil price declines, with a June drop to 15.0 from 17.2 in May, while the ISM-adjusted Dallas Fed dropped to 53.0 from a 2-year high of 55.4 in May.

Fed Chair Yellen: reiterated the Fed’s commitment to price stability. Policymakers want to avoid making too-low of an inflation rate to become ingrained. She noted that household inflation expectations have slipped some, and added that many on the Committee do believe that a low jobless rate will boost inflation. She did say though that aid there are reasons to believe rates will remain low for some time. Layoffs at brick-and-mortar stores will continue. Asset values are somewhat rich by traditional metrics. She stressed, however, that the FOMC is not targeting asset prices. The markets have well anticipated a gradual rate hike path, especially as the Fed has made it clear rates will rise only gradually. She cautioned to expect uncertainty over how Brexit will unfold. She declined to comment on her relationship with President Trump, but said there is a long tradition of the Fed working with administrations and added that the administration has respect for the Fed’s independence. On the other hand, Fed’s Harker still backs another rate hike this year, he said in comments from a conference London. He believes growth should average about 2.3% this year, but he’s pushed back his view of inflation hitting the 2% target into the start of 2018 versus the end of 2017.

German May import price inflation fell back to 4.1% y/y from 6.1% y/y in the previous month, with prices down -1.0% m/m. A stronger than expected dip, which, however, is largely due to base effects from energy prices and the currency. At 4.1% y/y import price inflation remains at high levels, but with headline rates also coming off highs and June figures likely to fall back further below the 2% limit, the data will back the ECB’s cautious approach to tightening steps, although that the ECB is heading for tapering next year is pretty clear.

Main Macro Events Today

• ECB’s Forum – ECB’s President Draghi speaks today at the ECB forum in Central Bank in Portugal at 13:30 GMT along with BOC Gov. Poloz, BoE Gov. Carney and BoJ Gov Koruda.

• U.S. Pending Home Sales & Oil Inventories – Pending home sales from the NAR are expected to rise 0.7% in May to 110.6 and EIA inventories are due after sparking recent bouts of crude oil selling.

• JPY Retail Trade – Retail sales are projected at 2.6% y/y in May from 3.2% y/y in April. The projection is for a 0.5% y/y dip in May large retailer sales following the 1.1% rate of increase in April.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 29th June 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th June 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Stock markets stabilized yesterday, after “ECB sources” played down Draghi’s comments on possible policy changes and after Eurozone peripherals bounced back during the PM session, Wall Street also closed higher, followed by broad gains on Asian markets overnight. U.K. stock futures are also up, after the FTSE 100 underperformed yesterday on hawkish Carney comments. That doesn’t seem to have curtailed the wider bounce back in risk appetite. Eurozone yields also came off the highs seen in the wake of Draghi’s original comments and Bund futures moved sideways during after hour trade. Gilts moved higher again yesterday and even if there are periods of stabilization, yields are likely to continue to trend higher as global central banks cautiously eye exit steps. Today’s will give both doves and hawks something to argue with as EMU ESI confidence is seen rising again, while German June HICP inflation is expected to fall back further below the 2% mark. The U.K. has BoE lending data.

US reports: U.S. pending home sales fell 0.8% to 108.5 in May following the 1.7% decline in April to 109. This is a third straight monthly decline and the index has fallen in four of the five months of 2017 to date. The National Association of Realtors blames much of the weakness in sale to a lack of inventory. U.S. goods trade deficit narrowed to -$65.9 in May, surprising forecasts for little change, after widening to -$67.1 bln in April. May exports increased 0.4% to $127.1 bln after dropping 0.9% to $126.6 bln in April. Imports dipped 0.4% to $193.0 bln following the prior 1.0% increase to $193.8 bln. The data suggest upside risk to GDP forecasts. Lastly, U.S. MBA mortgage market index sank 6.2% in data released earlier, along with a 4.1% drop in the purchase index and a 8.6% plunge in the refinancing index for the week ended June 23. Yet the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was unchanged at 4.13%. That could be a risky omen considering that home prices remain elevated and inventories low, even as the Fed continues to push on a string in terms of interest rates.

ECB officials suggest markets misjudged Draghi comments. According to a Bloomberg reports citing unnamed ECB policy makers Draghi’s speech yesterday was intended to strike a balance between recognizing economic strength and warning that monetary support is still needed. So after Draghi’s reference to possible policy changes served as a reminder that tapering announcements were merely postponed, not cancelled at the last meeting, we are now likely to get more comments from officials referencing Dragh’s insistence that any change will be prudent and gradual and that in times of strengthening growth, this could still mean that the degree of stimulus will remain unchanged. Draghi clearly remains eager to dampen the impact of tapering talk, despite yesterday’s comments

Main Macro Events Today

• Eurozone ESI – ESI Economic Confidence is seen rising slightly to 109.5 from 109.2, after better than anticipated preliminary consumer confidence data and as PMI readings suggested improving manufacturing confidence and a soberer assessment in the services sector.

• German HCPI – Italian HICP readings suggest downside risks to the remaining June inflation numbers, so German HICP expected to come with a downside bias of 1.3% y/y. Still, the ECB has already acknowledged the fact that oil prices are lower and adjusted its inflation projections accordingly.

• U.S. GDP, Jobless Claims – US Q1 GDP may stay unchanged on the third revision at 1.2%. Similarly, initial jobless claims expected to slightly drop to 240K from 241K.

• JPY CPI, Jobless Rate, Prel. Industrial Production – CPI is expected to reveal ongoing sluggishness in Japan’s inflation backdrop, consistent with no change in BoJ accommodation for quite some time yet. May consumer prices are seen improving to a 0.5% y/y rate of increase from 0.4% in April. May unemployment is anticipated at a 2.8%, identical to April. PCE is expected to post a 0.8% y/y decline in May after the 1.4% April drop. Industrial production is pegged to reverse 3.2% m/m in the preliminary report for May after the 4.0% final gain for April.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 30th June 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th June 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Markets are back in the grip of risk aversion and Asian stock markets headed south after losses on Wall Street and Europe yesterday. Eurozone stocks in particular sold off Thursday after the unexpected rise in German HICP rekindled ECB tapering concerns. Quarter end positioning that saw tech shares leading declines added to pressure on stock markets, while central bank concerns means bond futures are falling in tandem with stocks. Eurozone spreads blew out yesterday again and with global central banks eying exit steps yields are likely to continue to trend higher going ahead. Today’s busy calendar has June inflation data for France and the Eurozone, French consumer spending, the Swiss KOF leading indicator as well as German labour market data and the final reading of U.K. Q1 GDP.

US reports: revealed an upside Q1 GDP surprise led by big upward consumption and net export revisions and a downward set of deflator adjustments that also lifted Q1 “real” growth. We also saw surprising Q1 inventory weakness that boosts prospects for GDP growth in Q2 and Q3, though we will keep these estimates at 2.8% and 3.4% respectively. We saw a disappointing 2k uptick in initial claims to 244k to leave a relatively elevated start to the annual vehicle sector retooling period, which we still think will depress initial claims into mid-July, and the weekly Bloomberg consumer comfort index fell to 48.6 from 49.4.

Japan’s core CPI improved to an 0.4% y/y pace in May from the 0.3% growth rate in April. The modest pick-up was roughly as expected. National CPI grew at a 0.4% y/y clip in May, matching the 0.4% rate in April. But Tokyo core CPI (ex-fresh food, but energy is included in Japan “core”) was flat (0.0%) in June after the 0.1% gain in May. Tokyo CPI was also flat in June on the heels of the 0.2% y/y gain in May. The lack of growth in both measures of Tokyo CPI during June suggests a similar sputtering of national CPI growth in June, which could further distance the BoJ from the hawkishness that has gripped the BoC, Fed and ECB recently. The unemployment rate rose to 3.1% in May from 2.8% in April. Household spending dipped 0.1% y/y in May following the 1.4% drop in April. Industrial production tumbled 3.3% m/m in May (preliminary) after a 4.0% rise in April. USD-JPY saw minimal movement on the reports — the pair ticked above 112.0 from just below, reversed at 112.11 to slip back to 112.0 currently. The Nikkei 225 is 1.1% lower, taking its cue from the losses on Wall Street during New York’s session Thursday.

German May retail sales came in a tad better than anticipated, with sales rebounding 0.5% m/m, after falling -0.2% m/m in April. The three months trend rate rose to 1.1% from 1.0% in the three months to April. The annual rate still fell back to 1.2% y/y from 1.4% y/y. Nevertheless, a robust number, although official retail sales are a volatile indicator and only cover a part of consumption. Consumer confidence indicators meanwhile have been buoyant, suggesting ongoing support from private consumption to domestic demand and overall growth.

Main Macro Events Today

• UK Final GDP & Current Account – The final release of Q1 GDP, expect to come in unrevised at 0.2% q/q and 2.0% y/y (medians same). The Current Account for Q1 expected at £-17.250 B from £-12.088B.

• EU CPI – A slight deceleration expected in the Eurozone headline rate to 1.2% y/y from 1.4%. The ECB already scaled down its inflation projections thanks to lower oil prices and even if there is an upside surprise, as with the German numbers yesterday, it won’t change the ECB policy path, as the QE schedule is already laid out for the rest of the year and tapering is widely expected to start in January 2018.

• CAD GDP – GDP expected to improve 0.2% m/m in April after the 0.5% run-up in March. Projection is a notable slowing from the 3.7% growth rate in Q1, it would equate to still solid momentum in Canada’s economy. An as-expected report will underpin the Bank’s “encouraging” narrative on the economy, supportive of the BoC’s aggressively hawkish turn this month.
• US PCE, Chicago PMI & UoM Sentiment (Revised) – Personal income is set to rise 0.3% in May from 0.4%, while PCE spending rises 0.1% from 0.4%. Also out are Chicago PMI, which may dip to 58.0 in June from 59.4, with Michigan sentiment (final) June read seen steady at 94.5.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 3rd July 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd July 2017.

FX News Today

The surprisingly hawkish tone from core central banks recently has weighed sharply on bonds and stocks, with losses exacerbated Friday amid duration and portfolio shifts into quarter-end. Yet, the combination of weaker than expected U.S. data, especially on the inflation front, and the FOMC’s hints that it could slow rate hikes when it begins its balance sheet unwind, has pushed out tightening expectations beyond the November 1 policy decision. Given all the holiday disruptions this week, trading may be a bit disjointed. But, the FOMC minutes midweek could provide a window into Fed thinking and the week could end with a bang as the June payrolls release is on tap Friday.

United States: No one is projecting any rate action in the U.S. at this month’s FOMC meeting (25, 26), according to our Survey Median. But upcoming data may help refine the outlook with respect to the trajectory of monetary policy through the rest of the year. The June employment report will take center stage (Friday) for the holiday-abbreviated week, as the first major jobs reading since the last Fed hike, though the Fed already feels comfortable with its job mandate for the most part. The economic calendar will be split by the July 4th holiday (Tuesday), but kicks off (Monday) with the ISM manufacturing index seen nudging up to 55.0 in June from 54.9 in May, while construction spending may rebound 0.3% in May from -1.4% after April showers. Data resumes (Wednesday) with the MBA mortgage market report and factory goods orders forecast to sink 0.8% in May from -0.2% in April. June ADP employment survey (Thursday) should post a 190k gain for the month, though below the solid May figure of 253k. The May trade deficit is expected to narrow slightly to -$46.3 bln from -$47.6 bln, initial jobless claims may dip 13k to 231k for the July 1 week and ISM Non-Manufacturing index may ease to 56.5 in June vs 56.9 in May.

Canada: In Canada markets are closed on Monday for the Canada Day holiday (happy 150th birthday). Two important economic reports are out this week: May trade and June employment. The trade deficit (Thursday) is expected to narrow to -C$0.1 bln in May from -C$0.4 bln in April. Exports are seen improving 1.0% m/m in May after the 1.8% gain in April, but risk is skewed to the downside on our exports estimate given the erosion in oil prices in May relative to April. Employment (Friday) is projected to grow 20.0k in June after the 54.5k surge in May, as Canada’s labour market continues to tighten. Unemployment is expected at 6.6% in June, matching the 6.6% in May. Yet another tame reading for earning growth is anticipated, as average hourly wage growth dips to a 1.2% y/y pace in June from 1.3% in May. Building permit values (Thursday) are expected to slip 0.5% m/m in May after the 0.2% dip in April. The Ivey PMI (Friday) is seen rising to 55.0 in June from 53.8 on a seasonally adjusted basis, which would leave the index above 50.0 for the thirteenth consecutive month. The June Markit manufacturing survey is due Tuesday. After a flurry of game-changing appearances over the past two weeks, the BoC is silent during the first week of July.

Europe: The Eurozone goes into the second half of the year looking much stronger than expected. This week’s data releases are unlikely to change this assessment substantially. Final Eurozone PMI readings for June are expected to confirm preliminary numbers – i.e. a manufacturing PMI (Monday) of 57.3 and services reading (Wednesday) of 54.7, suggesting robust expansion across both sectors. Markit also reported ongoing strong job creation, which is expected to be reflected in another dip in the Eurozone unemployment rate (Monday) to 9.2% from 9.3%. Germany has manufacturing orders data for May (Tuesday), where a rebound of 2.0% m/m from the -2.1% m/m is anticipated, with the latter likely to have impacted also by the later timing of Easter, which fell into April this year. May industrial production (Friday), meanwhile, is seen rising 0.3% m/m, after 0.8% m/m in April. The calendar also has Eurozone retail sales and producer price inflation. Supply comes from Germany, which sells 5-year Bobls on Wednesday and the ECB publishes its latest bank lending survey on Thursday.

UK: Sterling rallied by an average 2.5% versus the G3 currencies last week as BoE Governor Carney appeared to show himself as a potential fifth member on the eight-person Monetary Policy Committee that could vote for a rate hike next month, or soon thereafter. The calendar this week is highlighted by the June PMI surveys. The manufacturing PMI (Monday) has us expecting an ebb to a 56.4 reading after 56.7 in May, which would still indicate a decent pace of expansion in the sector, which has benefited since the pound plummeted following last year’s Brexit vote. The construction PMI (Tuesday) anticipated to come in at 55.0 after 56.0 in the previous month, and the services PMI (Wednesday) to soften to 53.6 after 53.8 in May. Production and trade numbers for May are also up this week (Friday), where industrial output seen to ticking up by 0.4% m/m and by 0.2% y/y.

Japan: In Japan, Monday brought the June Tankan report, where was the strongest Tankan survey since 2014. Today Asian stock markets are mixed, with CSI 300 and ASX in the red, while Nikkei and Hang Seng are posting slight gains. the Nikkei was underpinned by the strongest Tankan survey since 2014 and the weakening of the Yen against USD as Japan PM Abe’s LDP suffered a surprise defeat in the Tokyo assembly election. The June Nikkei/Markit manufacturing PMI cool to 52.4 from 53.1 last month, while June consumer confidence came at 43.3 from 43.6. June Markit PMIs are also due on Wednesday.

China: In China, the June Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI today rose to 3-mth high at 50.4 from 49.6. The June services PMI (Wednesday) is estimated at 52.0 from 52.8.

Australia: Australia has Reserve Bank of Australia meeting (Tuesday), expected to reveal no change in the current 1.50% rate setting. Melbourne Institute inflation index and ANZ job ads are due Monday. Building approvals (Monday) are expected to rise 1.0% m/m in May after the 4.4% gain in April. Retail sales (Tuesday) are seen 0.3% m/m firmer in May after the 1.0% bounce in April. The trade surplus (Thursday) is seen improving to A$2,000 mln in May from A$555 mln in April.

New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar does not have any top tier data this week. However, the calendar has June QV House Prices (Wednesday), ANZ job ads (Wednesday). The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s next meeting is on August 10. No change is expected to the current 1.75% rate setting through year-end.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 4th July 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th July 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets traded mixed overnight. Hang Seng and CSI 300 underperformed with losses of 1.7% and 1.0% respectivelyas after falling below the support line of 25500. The Yen strengthened as North Korea test fired a missile, which weighed on Nikkei and Topix together with fresh pressure on tech giants, while the ASX rallied and is up more than 1.5% as the central bank left rates unchanged. U.K. as well as U.S. futures are also heading south after broad gains in Europe yesterday, which were led by Eurozone markets after a source story suggesting the ECB is not ready to lift the implicit easing bias on QE. Oil prices have halted their winning streak and are down on the day. Today’s data calendar is quiet, with only Spanish unemployment and EMU PPI, as well as the U.K. Construction PMI. ECB’s Praet and Nowotny speak and the Riksbank is expected to keep the repo rate unchanged in its latest policy assessment.

FX Update: The Australian dollar dove following the RBA announcement, with Governor Lowe’s statement giving a mixed prognosis of the economy and, in particular, highlighting that an “appreciating exchange would complicate” the transition of the economy from the mining investment boom. AUDUSD fell over 0.6% in making a four-session low at 0.7604, and AUDJPY shed over 1% in making a low at 85.85, which is also a four-session nadir. The RBA left the cash policy rate unchanged at 1.5%, as had been widely anticipated. Elsewhere, USDJPY tipped back under 113.00, putting in some space from yesterday’s seven-week high at 113.47. EURJPY and other yen crosses have seen a similar price action, with AUDJPY having led the way. EURUSD declined for a fourth-straight session following ECB efforts to correct its tapering message. The pair logged a four-session low at 1.1336.

US reports: revealed a June ISM pop to a 3-year high of 57.8, with a jobs index rise to a sturdy 57.2 that leaves upside risk for our 185k June nonfarm payroll estimate on Friday. Yet, we also saw a weak round of May construction spending data after annual revisions that lifted historic levels but that left a weaker entry into Q2, hence the Q2 GDP forecast trimmed to 2.4% from 2.6% with likely flat Q2 growth for both residential and nonresidential construction. The revised data show an even more dramatic home improvement surge since Q1 of 2016 despite some flattening in these gains in Q2, alongside a significant slowing in nonresidential construction growth since last August after a strong prior climb. Available vehicle sales figures suggest a June repeat of the 16.6 mln May pace, versus 16.8 mln in April, and an 18.3 mln cycle-high pace in December. A flat June headline and ex-auto retail sales figures can be assumed, with hits to sales from an estimated 4% June drop in gasoline prices and restraint in sales of building materials from a winter-boost.

The UK June manufacturing PMI came in much weaker than expected, at 54.3 in the headline reading, down from 56.3 in May, which itself was revised lower from 56.7. The new export orders component ebbed to a five-month low of 52.6 from 53.2 in the prior month, which is disappointing given the health of international economies and the significantly more competitive level of sterling following the Brexit vote last year. The pound and UK yields dipped on the data. Sterling markets are now looking to the services PMI survey for June (Wednesday) to better gauge any potential slowing in the broader economy that the manufacturing report might have portended, with the data arriving with BoE MPC members becoming increasingly eager to hike the repo rate from its record low rate of 0.25%.

Main Macro Events Today

• UK Construction PMI – The UK Construction PMI expected to come in at 55.0 after 56.0 in the previous month.

• ECBspeak – Executive Board member Praet, who has been stalling attempts to change the guidance more decisively, is due to speak today, while on the opposite end of the spectrum, head of the Austrian central bank, ECB’s Nowotny is scheduled to discuss the future of the Euro in Vienna.

• CAD Manuf. PMI – The markets reopened, but the U.S. is closed for the July 4th holiday. The June Markit manufacturing survey is due today.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.